The Pen

[Jack Flap]

I get not wanting to commit to guys like Robertson and Ottavino into 2020 and 2021, but getting Cody Allen on a one-year deal sounds like great value. If we're not in on that, maybe the plan is just to roll with Barnes, Brasier, and company after all...

[notin]

I don’t mind rolling with Barnes and Brasier. It’s Workman and Thornburg that I have issues with. Not to mention the depth on the farm...

[jacksonianmarch]

I don’t get the sudden confidence in a half season of Brasier. Yes, he’s got stuff, but he doesn’t K people and has a pretty sordid production history. If he reverts to a Japanese minor league level producer, you’re sunk. DD is relying a whole lot on players who either haven’t produced to the level he’s expecting or haven’t been in the role he’s putting them in.

 

Your rotation lacks what your team will need. Price didn’t even average 6IP per start. Sale might be able to, if he’s healthy, although that’s clearly not a given with how the season ended. ERod doesnt go deep in games. Eovaldi has never proven to go deep in games. The only guy who’s pretty much a given to average over 6IP a start is Porcello. In at least three out of five games (and maybe 4 with Sale), you’re gonna need an average of 10 or more outs from the pen and that’s assuming good health. Imagine if Sale misses time and is replaced by Johnson, who in many of his starts, didn’t finish 5IP. You’re stretching middle relief into setup, secondary setup guys into closer and mop up guys into setup and middle relief roles. I have a feeling DD has reached his financial cap and he will need to get creative in-season to add to the pen. In the interim, games are going to get interesting late in Boston

[Bellhorn04]

Red Sox 2019 bullpen = Dave's Big Dare?

[moonslav59]

I get not wanting to commit to guys like Robertson and Ottavino into 2020 and 2021, but getting Cody Allen on a one-year deal sounds like great value. If we're not in on that, maybe the plan is just to roll with Barnes, Brasier, and company after all...

 

Even Cody Allen puts us over $40M. Maybe that is a higher priority than some think.

[Bellhorn04]

I don’t get the sudden confidence in a half season of Brasier. Yes, he’s got stuff, but he doesn’t K people and has a pretty sordid production history.

 

A 'sordid production history' - man, you're quite the wordsmith once you get rolling.

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m not wrong. DD pulled him off the worst scrap heap you can find.

[jacksonianmarch]

Better question for you guys. Barnes hip acts up and he’s on the shelf for a month. Who closes and which two relievers sets him up?

 

A good pen nowadays is 3-4 guys deep (2 setup and a closer) because pitchers going past 6IP is a rare feat. Who’s your secondary setup? Who sets up if one of the above is being rested or on the shelf?

[Bellhorn04]

Better question for you guys. Barnes hip acts up and he’s on the shelf for a month. Who closes and which two relievers sets him up?

 

A good pen nowadays is 3-4 guys deep (2 setup and a closer) because pitchers going past 6IP is a rare feat. Who’s your secondary setup? Who sets up if one of the above is being rested or on the shelf?

 

There are more scrap heap signings yet to come, I think.

 

There might also be a trade.

 

There might even be a panic move at some point early in the season...

[moonslav59]

I don’t get the sudden confidence in a half season of Brasier. Yes, he’s got stuff, but he doesn’t K people and has a pretty sordid production history. If he reverts to a Japanese minor league level producer, you’re sunk.

7.8 is not bad and a 4.1 K/BB is pretty good.

 

DD is relying a whole lot on players who either haven’t produced to the level he’s expecting or haven’t been in the role he’s putting them in.

True, but we may on;y need 1 or 2 to finally step up and produce. I've always been one to prefer quality over quantity, and sure, the Yanks have both when it comes to the pen, but we do have a lot of choices (chances) beyond Barnes and Brasier:

Hembree

Thornburg

Smith

Workman

Wright/Johnson/Velazquez/Shawaryb/Shepherd

Poyner

Walden

Brewer

Putman

Lakins

Feltman

 

We need 2 or 3 out of these 15 to do well.

 

Your rotation lacks what your team will need. Price didn’t even average 6IP per start. Sale might be able to, if he’s healthy, although that’s clearly not a given with how the season ended. ERod doesnt go deep in games. Eovaldi has never proven to go deep in games. The only guy who’s pretty much a given to average over 6IP a start is Porcello. In at least three out of five games (and maybe 4 with Sale), you’re gonna need an average of 10 or more outs from the pen and that’s assuming good health. Imagine if Sale misses time and is replaced by Johnson, who in many of his starts, didn’t finish 5IP. You’re stretching middle relief into setup, secondary setup guys into closer and mop up guys into setup and middle relief roles. I have a feeling DD has reached his financial cap and he will need to get creative in-season to add to the pen. In the interim, games are going to get interesting late in Boston.

 

Our rotation will be more than fine. Where we lack in getting deep into games, we don't get shelled and removed in the 2nd inning as often as other teams. We also have some decent depth and may start the year with a 6 man rotation. Cora rested all of our players a lot last year, even before the Yankee sweep that pretty much sealed the deal. He will likely do it again this year, so stop the late season sky is falling mantra.

 

BTW, Paxton went less than 6 IP last year, and you have two starters that are older than any of ours. Let's wait and see who's fresh at season's end. We have nobody significantly past prime in any key roles.

 

IP per start

6.0 Sev - Sale 5.9

5.8 Happ- Price 5.9

5.8 Tanaka- Porcello 5.8

5.7 Paxton- ERod 5.4

5.3 CC-Eovaldi 5.1

 

I'm not seeing what you're seeing, and I'm expecting Eovaldi to pass CC in this area this season.

 

[moonslav59]

Better question for you guys. Barnes hip acts up and he’s on the shelf for a month. Who closes and which two relievers sets him up?

 

A good pen nowadays is 3-4 guys deep (2 setup and a closer) because pitchers going past 6IP is a rare feat. Who’s your secondary setup? Who sets up if one of the above is being rested or on the shelf?

 

15 guys to choose from before DD has to go looking, and that assumes DD does nothing before opening day- not likely.

 

What happens, if Judge gets hurt again?

 

What happens, if age finally catches up to CC and/or Happ?

 

Every team has what ifs. We have weak area right now, and that area is probably your biggest stregth, and that's all you want to talk about.

 

It's obvious why.

[moonslav59]

I’m not wrong. DD pulled him off the worst scrap heap you can find.

 

Maybe DD's best strength, to date with the Sox, is his mid season and scrap heap additions.

[notin]

15 guys to choose from before DD has to go looking, and that assumes DD does nothing before opening day- not likely.

 

What happens, if Judge gets hurt again?

 

What happens, if age finally catches up to CC and/or Happ?

 

Every team has what ifs. We have weak area right now, and that area is probably your biggest stregth, and that's all you want to talk about.

 

It's obvious why.

 

 

What if the Yankees get zero production at both shortstop and first base?

 

Isn’t it amazing how Brasier is a crapshhot but Tulowitzki, Voit and Bird are locks to produce and Grigorius is going to step in and pick up where he left off by Memorial Day?

[Slasher9]

There are more scrap heap signings yet to come, I think.

 

There might also be a trade.

 

There might even be a panic move at some point early in the season...

 

there also might be no real pressure or urgency as we are sitting on a title. but hey, Brasier has a sordid production history. so yeah, there's that......

[Slasher9]

What if the Yankees get zero production at both shortstop and first base?

 

Isn’t it amazing how Brasier is a crapshhot but Tulowitzki, Voit and Bird are locks to produce and Grigorius is going to step in and pick up where he left off by Memorial Day?

 

c'mon Notin. the Yankees are the best at every position, every coach, every thing. i mean, based on Jacksonianmarch's posts over the years surely the NYY have been robbed of the world series every year. they are the best!

[moonslav59]

c'mon Notin. the Yankees are the best at every position, every coach, every thing. i mean, based on Jacksonianmarch's posts over the years surely the NYY have been robbed of the world series every year. they are the best!

 

Only Yankee what ifs can come true.

 

No way full seasons from Eovaldi, Pearce, Brasier, ERod, Wright, Thornburg, Smith and maybe Pedey could possibly make up for the loss of CK, JK and PomPom!

 

Plus, Betts, Bogey, Devers, Moreland and Vaz all missed time and can't possibly play more this year.

[jacksonianmarch]

So your plan is to hope the 15 or so guys listed can turn into a bullpen? Getting to the point where you’re trying all 15 will cost you some games. And I’m not saying you should look for guys who can get a 4ERA. You need a guy who’s going to go sub 3ERA. I don’t see anyone on that list who you can expect to get there this year. I know the nature of pens is to be volatile, but yours is gonna be one of the most volatile in the AL, especially for a team predicted to top the league by many.

 

Onto the rotation, Paxton was a solid 6IP per start guy until his injured arm was sore again in August, then effectively averaged 5 IP after that. When he’s healthy, he’s a 6IP per start guy. That being said, we have a deep enough pen to handle the workload foisted on them by the rotation. Tanaka and Happ aren’t deep game warriors. CC is a 5 and done kind of pitcher. The only guys who I think will go deeper into games with regularity are Sevy and Paxton, and that’s assuming good health for Paxton, which isn’t a guarantee. That’s why we can run a full pen deep and right now have a guy like Kahnle waiting in the wings who very well may end up one of the best relievers we have if healthy.

 

My point is that you can get away with a weaker pen if your rotation is just eating innings like the 05 White Sox, but you don’t have that. Yes, your rotation will be good. Yes, they will likely be handing over a lead. But they will be handing over leads in the 6th inning to a gaggle of crap before you get to anyone who has anything close to a track record. And btw, the only guy with 2 or more good seasons out of your pen is Barnes and he’s never closed!

[moonslav59]

So your plan is to hope the 15 or so guys listed can turn into a bullpen? Getting to the point where you’re trying all 15 will cost you some games. And I’m not saying you should look for guys who can get a 4ERA. You need a guy who’s going to go sub 3ERA. I don’t see anyone on that list who you can expect to get there this year. I know the nature of pens is to be volatile, but yours is gonna be one of the most volatile in the AL, especially for a team predicted to top the league by many.

 

Onto the rotation, Paxton was a solid 6IP per start guy until his injured arm was sore again in August, then effectively averaged 5 IP after that. When he’s healthy, he’s a 6IP per start guy. That being said, we have a deep enough pen to handle the workload foisted on them by the rotation. Tanaka and Happ aren’t deep game warriors. CC is a 5 and done kind of pitcher. The only guys who I think will go deeper into games with regularity are Sevy and Paxton, and that’s assuming good health for Paxton, which isn’t a guarantee. That’s why we can run a full pen deep and right now have a guy like Kahnle waiting in the wings who very well may end up one of the best relievers we have if healthy.

 

My point is that you can get away with a weaker pen if your rotation is just eating innings like the 05 White Sox, but you don’t have that. Yes, your rotation will be good. Yes, they will likely be handing over a lead. But they will be handing over leads in the 6th inning to a gaggle of crap before you get to anyone who has anything close to a track record. And btw, the only guy with 2 or more good seasons out of your pen is Barnes and he’s never closed!

 

You said we had a weak pen last year.

[notin]

The Dombrowski player evaluations rarely agree with mine (which is probably a good thing). But my list of the ten best relievers remaining who might fit into the Sox budget are:

 

1. Justin Wilson

2. Nick Vincent

3. Zach McAllister

4. Brad Brach

5. Ryan Madson

6. Xavier Cedeno

7. Hunter Strickland

8. Greg Holland (ok maybe a tough budget fit)

9. Alex Wilson

10. Shawn Kelley

 

The Wilsons have both played for Dombrowski before, which does appear to matter.

[OH FOY]

According to McAdam, the Sox are approaching the 240 million mark. 246 is the threshold. I think the Sox go with what they got. Wait this out see if Salaries drop as you get Closer to Spring Training, or even after they start it. Edited January 18, 2019 by OH FOY!

[redsoxrules]

Sanchez was hurt all year and Judge lost 6+ weeks to an errant pitch. They'll make a run at it this year

 

Nothing is guaranteed. Same thing could happen this year.

[jacksonianmarch]

You said we had a weak pen last year.

 

You had an elite closer and nobody doubted that. Losing Kelly and Kimbrel is a lot to lose

[Bellhorn04]

You had an elite closer and nobody doubted that. Losing Kelly and Kimbrel is a lot to lose

 

Kelly was not great last year - fWAR of 0.7

 

He was great in the postseason. But so were Barnes and Brasier.

[moonslav59]

You had an elite closer and nobody doubted that. Losing Kelly and Kimbrel is a lot to lose

 

But, Barnes, Hembree and Brasier should look much better to you than they did last year.

 

Plus, Brasier did not even pitch for us until July 9th. Surely, 3 more months from him should make up for some of the loss.

 

You also arbitrarily chose 2 good seasons as being needed to have any realistic hope in a RP'er. That may or may not prove to be true, but we do have several pitchers besides Barnes who have 2 or more decent to good seasons:

 

Hembree '16 & '17 (plus looked good in PS last year)

Workman '13, '17, '18

Thornburg '13, '15, '16 (Yes, 2016 blew 13 & 15 away, but those 2 were decent.)

Wright '14 and '16 were very good and '15 and '18 were decent.

 

[Slasher9]

You had an elite closer and nobody doubted that. Losing Kelly and Kimbrel is a lot to lose

 

who knows. maybe this year we win with an unknown closer that acts elite. we dont have to look too far back in the past to actually see an example of this (Koji). keep trying tho......

[moonslav59]

Kelly was not great last year - fWAR of 0.7

 

He was great in the postseason. But so were Barnes and Brasier.

 

Although Jacko likes to poo-poo Brasier, he did have an 0.7 WAR in just a half season. One could argue that he might put up a 1.4 this year, thereby absorbing Kell's 0.7 WAR without adding anybody new. After all, most of Kelly's plus WAR was in the first half of 2018. (0.5 first half/ 0.2 second half.)

[TylerD]

So your plan is to hope the 15 or so guys listed can turn into a bullpen? Getting to the point where you’re trying all 15 will cost you some games. And I’m not saying you should look for guys who can get a 4ERA. You need a guy who’s going to go sub 3ERA. I don’t see anyone on that list who you can expect to get there this year. I know the nature of pens is to be volatile, but yours is gonna be one of the most volatile in the AL, especially for a team predicted to top the league by many.

 

Onto the rotation, Paxton was a solid 6IP per start guy until his injured arm was sore again in August, then effectively averaged 5 IP after that. When he’s healthy, he’s a 6IP per start guy. That being said, we have a deep enough pen to handle the workload foisted on them by the rotation. Tanaka and Happ aren’t deep game warriors. CC is a 5 and done kind of pitcher. The only guys who I think will go deeper into games with regularity are Sevy and Paxton, and that’s assuming good health for Paxton, which isn’t a guarantee. That’s why we can run a full pen deep and right now have a guy like Kahnle waiting in the wings who very well may end up one of the best relievers we have if healthy.

 

My point is that you can get away with a weaker pen if your rotation is just eating innings like the 05 White Sox, but you don’t have that. Yes, your rotation will be good. Yes, they will likely be handing over a lead. But they will be handing over leads in the 6th inning to a gaggle of crap before you get to anyone who has anything close to a track record. And btw, the only guy with 2 or more good seasons out of your pen is Barnes and he’s never closed!

 

Whatever the Pen is in regular season to start likely won't be how it finishes and go into the postseason (if we make the playoffs) Our offense and starting rotation is good enough to win us a ton of games. We have a very smart coaching staff (as shown how good the relief pitching was in the playoffs) I trust it will be worked out by the start of the season. And if there is still some wrinkles, so be it.... Won't be enough in my opinion to really slow us down.

[dgalehouse]

The Dombrowski player evaluations rarely agree with mine (which is probably a good thing). But my list of the ten best relievers remaining who might fit into the Sox budget are:

 

1. Justin Wilson

2. Nick Vincent

3. Zach McAllister

4. Brad Brach

5. Ryan Madson

6. Xavier Cedeno

7. Hunter Strickland

8. Greg Holland (ok maybe a tough budget fit)

9. Alex Wilson

10. Shawn Kelley

 

The Wilsons have both played for Dombrowski before, which does appear to matter.

Getting near the bottom of the barrell.

[dgalehouse]

We are the champions. That gives us the right to be confident, maybe even cocky. However, there is also reality . The reality is that the bullpen is very important in baseball today. And it certainly seems to me that our bullpen is not up to par and is pretty much being ignored by management. That is playing with fire . We have a great team . Do we want to take the chance of wasting it by blowing games late ? To me , waiting to see what is needed at mid season is not a very good plan.

[moonslav59]

We'd all like a better pen, but we have as much or better chance of winning this year than anyone else.

 

It's hard to criticize a GM or management team for that, despite still having one area of apparent weakness.

 

Plus, the winter is not over. Let's reserve judgement until it is.