19 bold predictions for MLB in 2019

[iortiz]

Thanks for going out on a limb here, anything "could" happen ..........

 

Yup, it’s still baseball.

 

Said that, I feel very comfortable entreing into the season.

[iortiz]

2018 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox

 

i love how yankees fans have literally become pre-2004 red sox fans.

"wait til next year"

"our rotation is better"

"we have the best farm"

 

there is no longer a doubt....hammer has become the nail.....

The 2018 Red Sox is the best team of all time, to me.

 

We have basically the same team, and I highly doubt DD is done this offseason regarding the BP.

 

We are the team to beat, and IMO 2-3 steps ahead NY. The way I see it, our rotation and offense are still the best in baseball.

Edited January 11, 2019 by iortiz

[BillyWilliams]

The 2018 Red Sox is the best team of all time, to me.

 

We have basically the same team, and I highly doubt DD is done this offseason regarding the BP.

 

We are the team to beat, and IMO 2-3 steps ahead NY. The way I see it, our rotation and offense are still the best in baseball.

 

You can see it however you like, that doesn't mean it's true......

[iortiz]

You can see it however you like, that doesn't mean it's true......

 

 

I’m not claiming I’m holding the true, it’s my opinion, as I said, we can disagree, no big deal.

 

Said that... still The Red Sox will win it all again LOL!

[dgalehouse]

The 2018 Red Sox is the best team of all time, to me.

 

We have basically the same team, and I highly doubt DD is done this offseason regarding the BP.

 

We are the team to beat, and IMO 2-3 steps ahead NY. The way I see it, our rotation and offense are still the best in baseball.

 

The one main problem is the bullpen . We lost two high velocity arms . So far , no replacements . As it stands , the Yankee bullpen is considerably better than ours . And , other than in blowouts , the bullpen is a factor in almost every game . D.D. absolutely needs to address this .

[moonslav59]

The one main problem is the bullpen . We lost two high velocity arms . So far , no replacements . As it stands , the Yankee bullpen is considerably better than ours . And , other than in blowouts , the bullpen is a factor in almost every game . D.D. absolutely needs to address this .

 

The Yanks pen is better than ours, but it might be worse than 2018 due to the loss of Robertson.

 

They are worse than us in other areas.

 

We are not done with our pen.

[Bellhorn04]

The Yanks pen is better than ours, but it might be worse than 2018 due to the loss of Robertson.

 

They are worse than us in other areas.

 

We are not done with our pen.

 

Dombrowski may have calculated that there would be some bargains on relievers come February, somewhat like Moustakas last year.

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski may have calculated that there would be some bargains on relievers come February, somewhat like Moustakas last year.

 

That's what I've thought all along.

 

The total picture of the Yanks vs Sox pens is not only that the Sox have lost CK & JK, it is this...

 

The Yanks lose Robertson and gain Kahnle & Britton for a full season.

 

The Sox lose CK & JK and gain Brasier and Thornburg (and maybe Wright/Johnson/Velazquez to the pen) for a full season (and Poyner, if needed).

[iortiz]

The one main problem is the bullpen . We lost two high velocity arms . So far , no replacements . As it stands , the Yankee bullpen is considerably better than ours . And , other than in blowouts , the bullpen is a factor in almost every game . D.D. absolutely needs to address this .

 

He definetely will. I’m pretty sure he is working on this. I’m not worried.

 

Also, probably it’s just me but Poyner will make a lot noise. I like the kid. Save this post.

[moonslav59]

Before the playoffs started some felt Joe Kelly didn't even belong on the roster. Now, we can't win without a replacement for him.

 

Kimbrel looked horrible in the playoffs, but we can't win without him or someone like him.

 

Barnes, Brasier and Hembree sucked but somehow did well for the playoffs, but we can't count on them for squat in 2019.

 

Look, I know we need an addition or two, but I don't think things are as dire as some think it is.

 

If our rotation stays healthy, we'll have Johnson, Velazquez and Wright as pen additions, and maybe Thornburg finally comes through. Workman, Poyner and others offer some hope, but my guess is we'll add someone at some point. He might not be flashy, but we'll improve from where we are now.

[Kimmi]

Before the playoffs started some felt Joe Kelly didn't even belong on the roster. Now, we can't win without a replacement for him.

 

Kimbrel looked horrible in the playoffs, but we can't win without him or someone like him.

 

Barnes, Brasier and Hembree sucked but somehow did well for the playoffs, but we can't count on them for squat in 2019.

 

Look, I know we need an addition or two, but I don't think things are as dire as some think it is.

 

If our rotation stays healthy, we'll have Johnson, Velazquez and Wright as pen additions, and maybe Thornburg finally comes through. Workman, Poyner and others offer some hope, but my guess is we'll add someone at some point. He might not be flashy, but we'll improve from where we are now.

 

Our situation is not in the least bit dire. As things stand right now, we are not only strong contenders, but IMO, the favorites heading into the season. Not strong favorites, and it won't be an easy road by any means, but we are currently the best team in baseball.

 

Besides, we all know that Dombrowski is not finished. We are only going to get better. Unless Dombrowski does something stupid.

[a700hitter]

19 bold predictions for MLB in 2019

 

01:39

Dec. 31st, 2018

 

By Anthony Castrovince MLB.com @castrovince

 

When the New Year arrives, we aim to be more dedicated, more disciplined versions of our natural selves. We vow to bring something good and useful and meaningful to the world.

 

And yet, for all the "New Year, new you" resolve in the air right now, some of us still just can't help ourselves: We like to make bad baseball predictions.

 

Here are 19 of them for '19 (and I of course reserve the right to update these to even worse predictions once the offseason dust settles).

 

1. The Red Sox will barely make the playoffs

Boston is far too talented and the American League has too many suspect squads for me to pick against the Sox reaching the postseason at all. But it will be via the second AL Wild Card spot, and the defending champs will not get back to the World Series.

 

Why, you ask? Because of Chris Sale's left shoulder? Nathan Eovaldi's October workload? Some kind of statistical setback for Mookie Betts and/or J.D. Martinez?

 

Nah. I just don't think your fans can break the World Series trophy with an errant beer can without some sort of penalty from the baseball gods.

 

2. Bryce Harper will sign with the Cardinals

At this point, my head still says that Harper will wind up with the Phillies or the White Sox. But this is the prediction I made at the start of the Hot Stove season, and, darn it, I'm going down with the ship, with all the accumulated evidence sinking me fast.

 

I do maintain that the Cardinals have the resources to pull it off and need to veer from an established organizational course of short-term solutions and half-measures. Paul Goldschmidt was a great get, but only for one year (and he's 31). Harper would take this club from borderline National League Central contender to clear World Series-caliber squad.

 

3. The Astros will trade for J.T. Realmuto

And Kyle Tucker? Despite the reports about the Astros balking at the Marlins' current asking price, you're going to look good in Miami blue and caliente red, bud. Speaking of the 'Stros…

 

4. Carlos Correa will win the AL Most Valuable Player Award over Mike Trout

Steamer is projecting Trout to be worth 9.3 Wins Above Replacement this year. I know to some of you that sentence might as well have come from a medical dictionary, but what that means is that a cold and utterly rational projection system is pegging Trout to have roughly one of the top 100 individual position player seasons of all-time. That's how ridiculous this has gotten. Greatness from Trout is simply expected.

 

So picking against Trout is also ridiculous. But it's still hard to be sold on the Angels, overall, and voters notoriously (and wrongly) hold team standing against Trout. Every year, there's some other guy who has an insane season (in 2018, it was Betts) that challenges Trout's MVP bid, and this year it will be the full-on Correa explosion, thanks to better health and a stronger (and healthier) supporting lineup cast.

 

5. Manny Machado will sign in the next 10 days

And he will sign with the Yankees. Not all predictions have to be bold predictions, folks.

 

6. Madison Bumgarner will become an Atlanta Brave

It won't happen prior to the start of the 2019 season, but Bumgarner will build up just enough trade value to be viewed as a viable upgrade to the Braves' rotation in the midst of the NL East race this summer.

 

7. Jacob deGrom will win 20 games

Let's just say he's due.

 

8. The Nationals will win the NL East

What would have been a bland prediction a year ago becomes a bit of a bold one now, with Harper, in all likelihood, leaving and the Nats coming off one of the more disastrous seasons by a clear contender in recent memory. The NL East is setting up to be the baseball equivalent of the "Anchorman" news team fight, but the Nats -- buoyed by a strong rotation, the second season of the Juan Soto experience and an NL Rookie of the Year Award bid from Victor Robles -- will be the rare team that loses a star (perhaps even to a division foe in Philly) and somehow gets better.

 

Or, you know, they'll re-sign Harper and everybody will pick them. Either way.

 

9. Ichiro Suzuki will hit a home run in the season-opening Japan Series

And No. 118 will push him past Ty Cobb and tie him with Wade Boggs as he wraps up an incredible, indelible career.

 

10. Somebody other than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will win the AL Rookie of the Year Award

This prediction is not a knock on Guerrero himself, as I see no reason why the No. 1 prospect in the game won't have a strong transition to the Major League level in 2019. This is just about swimming against the stream of what I'm sure will be darn near unanimous assumption that Guerrero will win the AL's rookie prize. I'm predicting strong showings from White Sox outfielder Eloy Jimenez and Astros starter Josh James that push Vlad Jr. in the rookie race.

 

11. There will be a three-man BBWAA Hall of Fame class

Mariano Rivera is a lock, Roy Halladay is not a lock but is not far off and the voters will have done the right thing in getting Edgar Martinez over that final hump. But I see the 2019 vote as coming agonizingly short of the 75-percent threshold for Mike Mussina, who pitched his entire 18-season career in the brutal AL East in the 1990s and 2000s and came out with a better career ERA+ than Bob Feller.

 

We'll see you in 2020, Moose, alongside your former teammate, Derek Jeter.

 

12. The Rays will win the AL's top Wild Card spot

Not only will Yandy Diaz turn all that exit velocity into dingers, but Tampa Bay will have something that resembles an actual starting rotation.

 

13. A team other than the Rays will lead the Majors in "starts by a reliever"

I've got my eye on the A's, for whom MC Hammer is currently penciled in as the No. 3 starter. (Please, Hammer, don't hurt 'em.)

 

14. The Guardians will not trade Trevor Bauer or Corey Kluber

And Bauer will win the AL Cy Young Award, thanks in part to his invention of a new form of breaking ball that strikes batters out and then talks trash about them on Twitter.

 

15. The Padres will be this year's "Wait, how are they this good?" team

They won't make the postseason, but San Diego will be one of those teams that cause you to look up at the standings in late July and go, "Huh?"

 

The Padres will beef up their win total a bit against the rebuilding Giants and D-backs, get some nice contributions from Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Urias and Francisco Mejia, see a little bit of a bounce back from Eric Hosmer and, like the 2018 Rays, try some unusual mixing and matching with their pitching staff.

 

16. Rhys Hoskins will win the Home Run Derby

This is the best guess I can muster this early, and only because Hoskins was so certain about wanting to do the event again after competing in last year's Derby. Also, the All-Star Game is Cleveland, where the airport is named Hopkins, so there's probably good wordplay to be had if Hoskins hits a bunch of fly balls.

 

(Although I'm not ruling out Trevor Story winning it and inspiring "Cleveland Rox" headlines.)

 

17. The Cubs will win the NL pennant

Another one of those that wouldn't have been very bold a year ago, but now? The rotation looks old and iffy, Kris Bryant's coming off a right shoulder injury, the bullpen is a big question (particularly with Brandon Morrow on the shelf) and Joe Maddon is a lame duck.

 

Fear not, North Siders. While you are going to lose the NL Central to Bryce Harper's Cardinals, you're going to advance in October on the heels of Bryant's return to MVP-caliber form and the Darvish Redemption Tour. Darvish's story will have shades of the 2018 David Price saga, and, as an added bonus, we'll get to say this World Series is sponsored by "YuTube."

 

Alas…

 

18. The Yankees will win the World Series

Those of us who grew up in baseball's smaller markets (or Boston) and have a natural aversion to the Yankees' stockpiling Series titles have had a pretty good run, haven't we? The Yankees have won just won championship this millennium (yes, calendrical experts will tell you the millennium began in 2001, not '00, so don't tweet me about this). By Yankee standards, that's an abyss.

 

But look, our luck is going to run out eventually. Since their 1919 acquisition of Babe Ruth, the Yankees have not gone a decade without a World Series appearance. The odds are against us, folks. I envision a 2019 with a more comfortable Giancarlo Stanton, a healthier Aaron Judge, a better rotation and the Yankees getting it done, with or without (likely with) Machado.

 

19. I will go back and read this column on Dec. 31, 2019, and cringe

This one I feel good about. Happy New Year, everybody!

 

Predictions for 2019 MLB season

WWW.MLB.COM

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When the New Year arrives, we aim to be more dedicated, more disciplined versions of our natural selves. We vow to bring something good and useful and meaningful to the world.And yet, for all the "New Year, new you" resolve in the air right now, some of us still just

#5 can be scratched off the list.

[moonslav59]

Our situation is not in the least bit dire. As things stand right now, we are not only strong contenders, but IMO, the favorites heading into the season. Not strong favorites, and it won't be an easy road by any means, but we are currently the best team in baseball.

 

Besides, we all know that Dombrowski is not finished. We are only going to get better. Unless Dombrowski does something stupid.

 

I don't think he will.

 

We got the ring. We are among the top faves for 2019.

 

I think DD is concentrating on 2020 and beyond without messing up our 2019 chances. That's why he hasn't jumped on a silly large & long term deal for a RP'er.

[notin]

#5 can be scratched off the list.

 

 

Ironic.

 

That’s the prediction he claimed wasn’t even bold, and that all his predictions didn’t have to be bold despite the title of the article stating they are...

[Kimmi]

I don't think he will.

 

We got the ring. We are among the top faves for 2019.

 

I think DD is concentrating on 2020 and beyond without messing up our 2019 chances. That's why he hasn't jumped on a silly large & long term deal for a RP'er.

 

I think the Sox will eventually end up going over the next penalty tier this year, whether it be in the offseason or midseason. The team is too good for them not to go that extra step that may push them over the top.

 

That is if the extra step is needed. We may end up being relatively healthy and productive as is. I'm mostly thinking about 2B.

 

But yeah, 2020 definitely feels like the reset year. Sooner or later, the money will catch up to you, no matter how rich a team you are. I am glad that Dombrowski has seemingly decided not to spend big on bullpen contracts.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the Sox will eventually end up going over the next penalty tier this year, whether it be in the offseason or midseason. The team is too good for them not to go that extra step that may push them over the top.

 

That is if the extra step is needed. We may end up being relatively healthy and productive as is. I'm mostly thinking about 2B.

 

But yeah, 2020 definitely feels like the reset year. Sooner or later, the money will catch up to you, no matter how rich a team you are. I am glad that Dombrowski has seemingly decided not to spend big on bullpen contracts.

 

I'm not convinced there's going to be any tax reset at all. There might be a reduction in the payroll, certainly.

 

The reset idea presupposes that you're going to take advantage of the lower rate to jack up the payroll all over again the next year.

 

Maybe instead of that they reduce the payroll down to say 10 million over the first threshold. They would have to pay 50% tax on that, which is no big deal in the overall picture.

[notin]

I'm not convinced there's going to be any tax reset at all. There might be a reduction in the payroll, certainly.

 

The reset idea presupposes that you're going to take advantage of the lower rate to jack up the payroll all over again the next year.

 

Maybe instead of that they reduce the payroll down to say 10 million over the first threshold. They would have to pay 50% tax on that, which is no big deal in the overall picture.

 

 

And the question becomes - does resetting make sense?

 

If the Sox cut payroll under $206mill and it impacts the product on the field to the point where Henry makes less revenue, then he may very well forego any reset...

[Bellhorn04]

And the question becomes - does resetting make sense?

 

If the Sox cut payroll under $206mill and it impacts the product on the field to the point where Henry makes less revenue, then he may very well forego any reset...

 

My thoughts exactly.

[notin]

My thoughts exactly.

 

 

So then.... what’s keeping Dombrowski from signing a couple really good relievers?

 

Seriously. It’s January 13 and the biggest addition to the roster is still Colten Brewer...

[Bellhorn04]

So then.... what’s keeping Dombrowski from signing a couple really good relievers?

 

Seriously. It’s January 13 and the biggest addition to the roster is still Colten Brewer...

 

Looks like we really are goin' cheap on the bullpen this year. How cheap remains to be seen.

[moonslav59]

I think the Sox will eventually end up going over the next penalty tier this year, whether it be in the offseason or midseason. The team is too good for them not to go that extra step that may push them over the top.

 

That is if the extra step is needed. We may end up being relatively healthy and productive as is. I'm mostly thinking about 2B.

 

But yeah, 2020 definitely feels like the reset year. Sooner or later, the money will catch up to you, no matter how rich a team you are. I am glad that Dombrowski has seemingly decided not to spend big on bullpen contracts.

 

I agree that the $40M line in 2019 is less of a worry than the reset winter after 2019 or possibly after 2020.

[moonslav59]

I'm not convinced there's going to be any tax reset at all. There might be a reduction in the payroll, certainly.

 

The reset idea presupposes that you're going to take advantage of the lower rate to jack up the payroll all over again the next year.

 

Maybe instead of that they reduce the payroll down to say 10 million over the first threshold. They would have to pay 50% tax on that, which is no big deal in the overall picture.

 

That's a possibility, at least for a year or two, but those 50%s add up over time. Resetting drops the rate for 2 years before getting back to 50% again.

 

While going $10M over in a 50% tax year costs $5M, going $20M over in a 20% year costs only $4M.

 

Losing Pablo's contract after 2019 makes next winter the likely reset year, IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

That's a possibility, at least for a year or two, but those 50%s add up over time. Resetting drops the rate for 2 years before getting back to 50% again.

 

While going $10M over in a 50% tax year costs $5M, going $20M over in a 20% year costs only $4M.

 

Sure, but going $20M over generally makes it that much harder to get back under, unless you're signing everyone to 1 year contracts, which ain't happening.

[Kimmi]

I'm not convinced there's going to be any tax reset at all. There might be a reduction in the payroll, certainly.

 

The reset idea presupposes that you're going to take advantage of the lower rate to jack up the payroll all over again the next year.

 

Maybe instead of that they reduce the payroll down to say 10 million over the first threshold. They would have to pay 50% tax on that, which is no big deal in the overall picture.

 

I don't know Bell. I personally think there will be a reset in either 2020 or 2021, which is what is holding us up in signing a reliever. Otherwise, as you mentioned, it wouldn't make much sense to re-sign Pearce. But Pearce having a one year contract doesn't affect reset goals for 2020.

 

We'll see. I can't imagine Henry be willing to continue to pay the higher tax penalties. Even the Yankees reset.

[Kimmi]

And the question becomes - does resetting make sense?

 

If the Sox cut payroll under $206mill and it impacts the product on the field to the point where Henry makes less revenue, then he may very well forego any reset...

 

We need to build our farm system back up. If we had a strong farm, we could put a quality product on the field and keep the payroll under $206 mil.

[Kimmi]

Looks like we really are goin' cheap on the bullpen this year. How cheap remains to be seen.

 

But why go cheap on the BP if we're not really concerned with resetting?

[notin]

Looks like we really are goin' cheap on the bullpen this year. How cheap remains to be seen.

 

But then as long as Kimbrel, Ottavino and Allen remain unsigned, there is still a possibility of spending...

[moonslav59]

Sure, but going $20M over generally makes it that much harder to get back under, unless you're signing everyone to 1 year contracts, which ain't happening.

 

We have a bunch of players that have contracts expiring every year. The idea is not to expressly have to reset every 3 years. As it turns out, we will be going over the max line 2 years in a row. I'm not sure that is in the plans again, but when looking at our future budgets, it certainly looks easier to reset every now and again while trying to not go $40M ever again.

 

Do we have to reset after 2019? No. Would not doind it after 2019 mean we have to after 2020, probably not, but it doesn't make sense to me, to stay at the 50% tax rate indefinitely, when dipping under every 3-5 years and maybe going $20-39M every now and again when you feal an extra push is needed is cheaper.

 

[notin]

I agree that the $40M line in 2019 is less of a worry than the reset winter after 2019 or possibly after 2020.

 

 

Which means one year contracts are fair game...

[moonslav59]

Which means one year contracts are fair game...

 

Exactly, except for Eovaldi, who they must gave viewed as a bargain and a projected plus for 4 years. He allows us to lose Porcello or Sale with a lesser big ouch.