Robertson to Phillies...

[notin]

Or that Robertson had no interest in playing for the sox........

 

 

The most common reasons a player refuses an offer is either money or years or both. If the years were the same, that leaves money...

[Station 13]

Even though he expressed interest playing here. Got it!

 

#FakeNews!

 

True fact: Billy Boy is a moron.

[BillyWilliams]

Even though he expressed interest playing here. Got it!

 

Maybe he said that to help try to drive his price up, it's called negotiating.......

[BillyWilliams]

#FakeNews!

 

True fact: Billy Boy is a moron.

 

True fact: You're a dickhead

[mvp 78]

Maybe he said that to help try to drive his price up, it's called negotiating.......

 

Note: the best way to negotiate is by saying "I want to work as close to home as possible" as it excludes 50%+ of all potential suitors.

[fxkatt]

It's the JD staredown with an inferior player. Kimbrel does not have anybody who can meet his desired price. The Red Sox would still like him, but on their terms - and they have a LOT of viable alternatives on the market they can find. The Red Sox have leverage here, and I would not be surprised if Kimbrel comes back with a fairly friendly deal.

 

I suspect, Kimbrel will end up with a 3 or 4 year deal rather than the 6 (100 mill.) he wants. If it's 3, he probably comes back to the fold. Of course, with his price-tag taking a hit, more teams will enter the market. I will say this about him--he's one of the strongest pitchers on our staff, and that may be the thinking behind trying to re-sign him (if the price is right)

 

I wonder what he does if he gets basically equal offers from 2-3 teams. Does he choose the NL over the AL, Boston over Toronto say, or a more personally appealing location for him over Boston. Also, would coming back here remind him too much of his relative low worth?

[sk7326]

I suspect, Kimbrel will end up with a 3 or 4 year deal rather than the 6 (100 mill.) he wants. If it's 3, he probably comes back to the fold. Of course, with his price-tag taking a hit, more teams will enter the market. I will say this about him--he's one of the strongest pitchers on our staff, and that may be the thinking behind trying to re-sign him (if the price is right)

 

I wonder what he does if he gets basically equal offers from 2-3 teams. Does he choose the NL over the AL, Boston over Toronto say, or a more personally appealing location for him over Boston. Also, would coming back here remind him too much of his relative low worth?

 

His relative low worth is driven by his contract demands. If you could get him for, say David Robertson's price - yay. Really, the market has moved so slowly that I am not sure exactly where the Sox stand with any of the guys on the market.

[BillyWilliams]

Note: the best way to negotiate is by saying "I want to work as close to home as possible" as it excludes 50%+ of all potential suitors.

 

Note: He actually never stated that, Cashman was the one who said that Robertson told him that.

[notin]

Note: He actually never stated that, Cashman was the one who said that Robertson told him that.

 

So.... Cashman is a liar?

[OH FOY]

I think Robertson's AAV is identical to his last deal, with the years cut from 4 to 2. A very fair and sensible deal all the way around.

 

Agree, the guy has a Rubber Arm too. He makes the BP versatile, Go Long, Set-up, Close. I would have liked the Sox get him.

[dgalehouse]

It is kind of a strange and unique system if you think about it . The players most productive years are often their lower paid years . By the time they reach free agency and want the big money , they are often seen as approaching their declining productivity years .

[S5Dewey]

It is kind of a strange and unique system if you think about it . The players most productive years are often their lower paid years . By the time they reach free agency and want the big money , they are often seen as approaching their declining productivity years .

 

...and in spite of the fact that history says that most of these players are in their statistically declining years, GM's offer them huge contracts hoping that this player will be the exception.

[fxkatt]

It is kind of a strange and unique system if you think about it . The players most productive years are often their lower paid years . By the time they reach free agency and want the big money , they are often seen as approaching their declining productivity years .

 

But at least arbitration offers fairly just rewards. In the NFL, this scenario is far worse--little guaranteed money, and no arbitration money during the most productive years (average NFL career is between 2.5-3 years) and, of course, a hard cap. If I were this Oklahoma quarterback, I would stick with the Oakland A's offer.

[fxkatt]

...and in spite of the fact that history says that most of these players are in their statistically declining years, GM's offer them huge contracts hoping that this player will be the exception.

 

...and put fannies in the seats, if performance is less than desired.

[dgalehouse]

But at least arbitration offers fairly just rewards. In the NFL, this scenario is far worse--little guaranteed money, and no arbitration money during the most productive years (average NFL career is between 2.5-3 years) and, of course, a hard cap. If I were this Oklahoma quarterback, I would stick with the Oakland A's offer.

 

The NFL has a different situation. They have the salary cap. They don't have to support a minor league system or scout other countries for talent. They get the vast majority of their players trained and pretty much ready made right from our universities. On the other hand , they only have eight home dates a season . They make a fortune from TV money. The kid from Oklahoma might be better off in baseball, both financially and health wise. However, he probably has a better chance of making it in the NFL than in MLB.

[notin]

It is kind of a strange and unique system if you think about it . The players most productive years are often their lower paid years . By the time they reach free agency and want the big money , they are often seen as approaching their declining productivity years .

 

 

The GMs also count on the name recognition of these star players to put fans in the seats. Sometimes casual fans simply recognize when a player is simply too old to be effective any more.

 

 

I once worked with a Yankee fan who was all excited after a few big offseason moves and ended with trash-talking “And next they’re gonna get Griffey!!”

 

That was in 2009. When Ken Griffey Jr. was 38 years old.

 

By then, he Griffey was obviously no longer in any conversations about best player in the game. The guy didn’t even realize Griffey had actually spent the previous season in Chicago (where we were). But Griffey did have name recognition...

[notin]

The kid from Oklahoma might be better off in baseball, both financially and health wise. However, he probably has a better chance of making it in the NFL than in MLB.

 

Definitely a better chance in the NFL.

 

The NFL has seen their share of college QBs who tried baseball, and after a few years in the minors, went back to football and made it in the NFL, including Cody Brennan, Drew Henson, Todd Hutchinson, Chris Weinke and Russell Wilson. And probably a few more that I can’t think of off the top of my head...

[Bosock1]

Even though he expressed interest playing here. Got it!

 

Well, I thought about that. He represented himself....that makes it interesting in terms of pinging the industry. Do you make 50 phone calls yourself? "Dave's on line 1 again." Sounds desperate.

 

Say what you want about agents but that info network let's you know if your market is one team or ten, and who is getting close with other free agents, etc.

 

In other words, as a solo act I don't think you are announcing the cities you won't take money from.

[Bosock1]

The most common reasons a player refuses an offer is either money or years or both. If the years were the same, that leaves money...

 

I think that is true for that first big money deal. Robertson has made over $50 mil already. He's an Alabama boy with a wife and two toddlers. I could get not wanting to commute to the Bronx everyday. He can get a nice center hall 4/2.5 in the mainline and pop down to the Phillies park in 15 minutes.

[sk7326]

But at least arbitration offers fairly just rewards. In the NFL, this scenario is far worse--little guaranteed money, and no arbitration money during the most productive years (average NFL career is between 2.5-3 years) and, of course, a hard cap. If I were this Oklahoma quarterback, I would stick with the Oakland A's offer.

 

If Murray was a Top 10 pick he would make more money in football than baseball. Now, never say never - but the guarantee he got from the A's (the reason the A's took him 9th overall in the first place) was based on him only playing football this year. Boras is tough as they come, but I don't think he'd be great with a client walking away from a deal that is signed. Most of these baseball-football decisions are guys in high school.

[sk7326]

...and put fannies in the seats, if performance is less than desired.

 

In auction terms it's called the winners' curse. Usually teams in FA pay a premium above the player's true "worth" (in terms of production, whatever) in order to win the bidding.

[Bellhorn04]

In auction terms it's called the winners' curse. Usually teams in FA pay a premium above the player's true "worth" (in terms of production, whatever) in order to win the bidding.

 

It's a great way to describe it.

[Bosock1]

In auction terms it's called the winners' curse. Usually teams in FA pay a premium above the player's true "worth" (in terms of production, whatever) in order to win the bidding.

 

 

Fascinating that last year was considered a huge setback year for FAs despite a roaring (sez prez) economy.

 

Was business for the owners and attendance so comfortable that no one felt the need for Hail Mary passes?

 

Was it just a weak FA year with a markedly lower percentage of players worthy of long deals?

 

Did youth and analytics stab age in the back?

[Bellhorn04]

Did youth and analytics stab age in the back?

 

The bean counters and the stat geeks are all on the same page these days.

[Bosock1]

The bean counters and the stat geeks are all on the same page these days.

 

 

The value/pay spreadsheet swap of recent years is fascinating. If they don't adjust the arb age system, it will be interesting to see what the effects will be.

[Kimmi]

It's the rise of the stat geeks in front offices.

 

Go stat geeks!

[Kimmi]

...and in spite of the fact that history says that most of these players are in their statistically declining years, GM's offer them huge contracts hoping that this player will be the exception.

 

I keep hoping that the GMs will stop offering these ludicrous contracts. Haven't seen it happen yet.

 

I just read that the Nats gave Harper a new offer, one that is 'significantly higher' than the 10 yrs/$300 mil proposal. Sheesh.

[Sandman1956]

I agree with Kimmi, these multi year high money contracts rarely work out for the teams. I would love to see a long term contract set up to reflect a likely decline in production. Big money for three years and then a decreasing base pay with reachable incentives bringing it to a possible salary equalling the original years. (and maybe pre arbitration salaries ought to have some incentives built in too, so that baseball can reward great players like Betts or Judge at a level that they deserve) Frankly, it is not fair to the teams (and their fans) to pay a huge money to a guy who is injured half the time. Or to a guy who has lost four MPH off his fastball and is not productive any more. I did not mind seeing the Sox pay Big Papi's salary in his last years, but, if it were any team other than the Yankees, I would feel for the team that had to pay Ellsbury or ARod as they declined. (of course you could say they made their own bed in both cases).

 

My point is, baseball has to find a creative way to pay their players fairly and intelligently. As good as Price was for the Sox last year, he was not worth 31 million. I feel the Sox are paying him for his years in Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Toronto.

[moonslav59]

For the most part, players are underpaid for the first part of their career, and only a few get paid like kings once they reach free agency.

 

The owners must not mind overpaying, and sometimes big and long contracts do work out. The ones that don't are more than made up for by the under paid.

 

I agree, the system should be improved, and I've always wondered why the players go along with a system where only a select few make a huge chunk of the money.

 

[Kimmi]

I agree with Kimmi, these multi year high money contracts rarely work out for the teams. I would love to see a long term contract set up to reflect a likely decline in production. Big money for three years and then a decreasing base pay with reachable incentives bringing it to a possible salary equalling the original years. (and maybe pre arbitration salaries ought to have some incentives built in too, so that baseball can reward great players like Betts or Judge at a level that they deserve) Frankly, it is not fair to the teams (and their fans) to pay a huge money to a guy who is injured half the time. Or to a guy who has lost four MPH off his fastball and is not productive any more. I did not mind seeing the Sox pay Big Papi's salary in his last years, but, if it were any team other than the Yankees, I would feel for the team that had to pay Ellsbury or ARod as they declined. (of course you could say they made their own bed in both cases).

 

My point is, baseball has to find a creative way to pay their players fairly and intelligently. As good as Price was for the Sox last year, he was not worth 31 million. I feel the Sox are paying him for his years in Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Toronto.

 

Obviously, you are a wise man.

 

You make some very good points. During those albatross years, it's very difficult for most teams to eat the remaining contracts, and it does put the team into not only a financial bind, but also a managerial bind.

 

I keep thinking that the insanity of contracts has to hit a limit soon, yet they just keep getting bigger and bigger. I don't like it.