What would a Betts extension be?

[jacksonianmarch]

Cafardo is reporting that the Sox are trying to extend Betts this off-season and may offer him something he cannot refuse. Now, Betts has already made some serious money due to his first run through the arb process and he’s due an even bigger raise the second time through. So, consider that he’s staring at about $29 mil total as earnings for 2018 and 2019, it isn’t like he’s gonna have to jump at a contract to set his family up. If you look at arb projections, in all likelihood, Betts is gonna make something like $42 mil via arb in 2019-2020 total.

 

Then one must look at length beyond that. Betts will be 26 for pretty much the entire 2019 season. As it stands, he’s due to hit FA as a newly turned 28 year old, meaning he’s going to be staring 10 year deals in the face. So the length for Betts to not test the market would probably need to be an insane 12 years to keep him from hitting the market.

 

Now, let’s talk financials. The highest paid position player in 2019 was Mike Trout at $33.75 mil. That isn’t AAV, just take home. But there is the pesky contract situations for Machado and Harper that complicate things. Betts was better than both last year. As a matter of fact, Betts 2018 was better than anything Machado or Harper ever put up. (Betts 10.4 WAR, Harper 2015 9.3 WAR, Machado 2015 6.6). So he’s going to want to surpass them in FA money. Let’s say for arguments sake, Harper gets a $34 mil AAV in his deal.

 

Then there’s opt outs. The Sox already have Betts for the next two based on arb rules. They won’t be terribly inclined to offer such a massive deal and have a three year opt out. Maybe they have a four year opt out, allowing the Sox to keep him until he turns 30 and have him seek a new contract then if he’s still posting HOF numbers. That being said, since Betts isn’t a FA, they don’t have to front load his deal since the arb contract will actually back load his earnings if he went year to year. So here’s my best guess as “an offer he couldn’t refuse”.

 

12 years. $395 mil. Opt out after 4. Payouts as such.

2019- $20 mil

2020- $25 mil

2021-2030- $35 mil

 

I think that’s an offer he cannot refuse.

[Northern Star]

Thank God you're not the Sox GM.

 

I don't know why there's this apparent rush nowadays to lock up players to longterm deals when they're still arb eligible.

[Northern Star]

Also:

[Dojji]

Thank God you're not the Sox GM.

 

I don't know why there's this apparent rush nowadays to lock up players to longterm deals when they're still arb eligible.

 

Trading arb years for extra guaranteed years tends to bring the overall AAV of an extension down. The tradeoff for the player is they make the big money earlier

[Kimmi]

12 years. $395 mil. Opt out after 4. Payouts as such.

2019- $20 mil

2020- $25 mil

2021-2030- $35 mil

 

I think that’s an offer he cannot refuse.

 

I would guess that Mookie would not be able to refuse that deal, but as a GM, there is no way in the world that I would offer that deal.

 

Part of the team's reasoning for buying out some control years is to be able to get some free agent years at a cheaper rate. It should be a deal where both sides benefit. How are the Sox benefiting from that deal? They are taking all of the risk with no reward. Mookie is getting all of the reward with no risk.

 

My final offer to Mookie would be an 8 year deal from now, meaning a 6 year extension, at $30 mil a year. Throw in a couple of opt outs if necessary. That, to me, is still breaking the bank on a player, but I'm also trying to be realistic.

[Bellhorn04]

Let's see what Machado and Harper get. That's going to set the bar.

[cp176]

Let's see what Machado and Harper get. That's going to set the bar.

 

I have a hunch that that is what Mookie is doing. My guess is that Mike Trout is quietly watching all of this unfold. He has the potential to set the bar higher than anyone else.

[Jack Flap]

I get Kimmi's reticence on long-term megacontracts, and typically I agree, but right now Mookie is looking like that once-in-a-generation type of player worth biting the bullet and backing up the $$$ truck for.

 

Gun to my head, I'd probably offer him what Jacko proposed and hope for the best.

[Nick]

I would guess that Mookie would not be able to refuse that deal, but as a GM, there is no way in the world that I would offer that deal.

 

Part of the team's reasoning for buying out some control years is to be able to get some free agent years at a cheaper rate. It should be a deal where both sides benefit. How are the Sox benefiting from that deal? They are taking all of the risk with no reward. Mookie is getting all of the reward with no risk.

 

My final offer to Mookie would be an 8 year deal from now, meaning a 6 year extension, at $30 mil a year. Throw in a couple of opt outs if necessary. That, to me, is still breaking the bank on a player, but I'm also trying to be realistic.

 

Big part of appeal about Betts is his athleticism to go along with his baseball skills.

 

I seriously doubt in 7 years, he'll be making the same type of running catches nor running the bases with abandonment as he's doing now. His power will certainly decline. He is NOT going to repeat last year's performance year after year.

 

I would agree Betts is worth $35M per year if he repeats last year's numbers for next ten years. I just don't think he can do it.

[notin]

Thank God you're not the Sox GM.

 

I don't know why there's this apparent rush nowadays to lock up players to longterm deals when they're still arb eligible.

 

 

1. To delay free agency and control the player for an additional year or two.

2. The way arb deals are going, buying them out seems to make a lot of financial sense...

[moonslav59]

Another strategy is to pay them more in their arb years than they'd normally make, so they get more money "now" or upfront and less in the last 2-3 years, which makes it easier to trade the player, if the need arises.

 

Or, offer $31M x 12, which is $372/12, but if the money is invested well, more upfront money may make up the difference in total pay over 12 years.

 

I'd give him an opt out after 5 or 6 years.

 

The problem with extending him now is that his new AVV will hurt the 2019 ans 2020 budget more than his arb costs, but it would help lessen the AVV cost for the next 10 years.

[moonslav59]

I hate long term deals, but like the Price deal, I feel it is necessary.

 

To compare a long term deal for Betts to others that have gone horribly wrong, like Pujols and Miggy is not really fair. Betts is much younger and is the heart and soul of our team.

 

Letting Betts walk will be worse than letting Fisk, Lynn and Burleson go combined.

[cp176]

Mookie Betts is willing to play the gambling game and that is exactly what it is. He has to answer the question - How much is enough to take care of me and mine forever and ever? If the Red Sox make him an offer based on the current market expectations long term and he chooses to gamble that is up to him. It is a risk that he is taking. He could be one step away from an injury that could affect his ability to earn a living playing baseball as we move ahead. I believe that he gets every ounce out of himself that he can get. There is no reserve. I do not blindly believe that someone his size who plays the way he plays will last for the entire duration of whatever the contract he signs might be.

[cp176]

I hate long term deals, but like the Price deal, I feel it is necessary.

 

To compare a long term deal for Betts to others that have gone horribly wrong, like Pujols and Miggy is not really fair. Betts is much younger and is the heart and soul of our team.

 

Letting Betts walk will be worse than letting Fisk, Lynn and Burleson go combined.

 

ok moon thank God there is finally something that I can disagree with you over! If I could trade Mookie for Fisk, Lynn, and Burleson in their primes, I would do it and never once look back. We are talking about 4 very special players here.

[moonslav59]

Mookie Betts is willing to play the gambling game and that is exactly what it is. He has to answer the question - How much is enough to take care of me and mine forever and ever? If the Red Sox make him an offer based on the current market expectations long term and he chooses to gamble that is up to him. It is a risk that he is taking. He could be one step away from an injury that could affect his ability to earn a living playing baseball as we move ahead. I believe that he gets every ounce out of himself that he can get. There is no reserve. I do not blindly believe that someone his size who plays the way he plays will last for the entire duration of whatever the contract he signs might be.

 

Certainly, there is a big risk in any 12 year contract. Injury is the worst case scenario.It helps that Betts plays in a spacious RF half his games, and that he plays the OF not IF or catcher.

 

Betts will be 26 next season and would be 37 in the final year of a 12 year contract. That means 7 of the 12 years would be during ages 26-32. Also, the 5 seasons at ages 33-37 are not severely post prime like many 8-10 year deals have been in the past.

 

I get the concerns, and I'd be very worried over a 12 year deal, but I think Betts is the guy that would make it worth it, even if he missed some time for injuries.

[moonslav59]

ok moon thank God there is finally something that I can disagree with you over! If I could trade Mookie for Fisk, Lynn, and Burleson in their primes, I would do it and never once look back. We are talking about 4 very special players here.

 

First time we very disagreed!

 

 

Going on the assumption we let Mookie walk and get just a comp pick for him, It would feel worse than losing Fisk, Lynn and Burleson combined.

 

We got nothing for Fisk, who went on to have a great career with the CWS, but his best years were with us. We ended up getting Frank Tanana and Joe Rudi for Lynn, and while that was not a good trade, we did get some quality in return. We got Carney Lansford & Mark Clear for Burleson & Hobson and later got Tony Armas for Lansford.

 

My point was meant as hyperbole, but I don't think it was that far from being accurate.

[dgalehouse]

Mookie is either the best or second best player in the game . On the road to Cooperstown. Absolutely the kind of guy you want to have spend his whole career in Boston. However , you can't get crazy either. It makes no sense to have Mookie if you then can't afford to surround him with a first rate supporting cast. It takes a lot of different pieces to make a championship team.

[moonslav59]

Mookie is either the best or second best player in the game . On the road to Cooperstown. Absolutely the kind of guy you want to have spend his whole career in Boston. However , you can't get crazy either. It makes no sense to have Mookie if you then can't afford to surround him with a first rate supporting cast. It takes a lot of different pieces to make a championship team.

 

We're paying Price $31M and have been able to surround him with a lot of talent. The problem is, we don't seem to have much help in the pipeline- the cheap cost players we will need to fill out the roster around Betts.

 

Price will be on the books for 2 more years after Betts reaches free agency, and there is little chance we will be able to pay multiple players over $15M with Betts and Price taking up close to $65M between them. One plan would be to add several players making $4-14M, instead of bringing back Sale, Bogey, Porcello and maybe JD, if he opts out.

 

If we reset after 2019 and go back to $40M over for 2021, I think we can have a decent team after one off year. Maybe we get a nice draft pick after having the one bad year. Maybe a few prospects we have now fill some key roles. We do still have young players like ERod, Beni and Devers, but their arb costs will begin to pinch the budget by 2021 and 2022.

 

I'm hopeful we can keep the "cliff" to a minimum of 1-2 years, but I'd really like to have Betts around to give us something to watch through hard times as we try to rebuild a team around him. Maybe we don't get to championship level until after Price's deal expires, but we may be pretty good before then.

 

[Northern Star]

Kimmi and dgalehouse are the voices of reason here. There's a point at which it gets stupid - and irresponsible - to hand out the kind of longterm commitment and amount of money that jacko is suggesting. I think we've hit a dangerous plateau with contracts going over $300mil for 7 or 10 years. Like Kimmi said, the team is taking on all of the risk, and getting value in terms of production for maybe half of it if they are lucky.

 

Knowing how likely it is for players to decline into their middle/late thirties, it's insanity to lock them up for that long. I'd rather trade Betts for what we can get in his last pre-FA year than break the bank and shackle the franchise to such a ridiculous degree. No one player is bigger than the team. Ever.

[Nick]

We're paying Price $31M and have been able to surround him with a lot of talent. The problem is, we don't seem to have much help in the pipeline- the cheap cost players we will need to fill out the roster around Betts.

 

Price will be on the books for 2 more years after Betts reaches free agency, and there is little chance we will be able to pay multiple players over $15M with Betts and Price taking up close to $65M between them. One plan would be to add several players making $4-14M, instead of bringing back Sale, Bogey, Porcello and maybe JD, if he opts out.

 

If we reset after 2019 and go back to $40M over for 2021, I think we can have a decent team after one off year. Maybe we get a nice draft pick after having the one bad year. Maybe a few prospects we have now fill some key roles. We do still have young players like ERod, Beni and Devers, but their arb costs will begin to pinch the budget by 2021 and 2022.

 

I'm hopeful we can keep the "cliff" to a minimum of 1-2 years, but I'd really like to have Betts around to give us something to watch through hard times as we try to rebuild a team around him. Maybe we don't get to championship level until after Price's deal expires, but we may be pretty good before then.

 

 

I liked your analysis of prioritizing current Sox players as they become FA.

 

I have as much fascination with Sale as I do with Betts. Here we have a player that clearly wants to be with Red Sox. I think he'll take an extension of say 6 year, $180M. I simply love his competitiveness on the mound. We gave up a lot for his three years of service, albeit team friendly contract.

 

I would love to keep Sale and JD Martinez and reset, if that's possible.

 

In reality, we have only 4 contracts for 2020. Price ($31M), Eovaldi ($17M), Pedroia ($13.75M) and Vaz ($4.52M) for total of $66.27M. 3 major arbitration players are Betts (say $22M), JBJ (say $11M) and E Rod ($8.50M). That brings total to 7 players at $108M. Add Sale at $30M and JD at $25M (front loaded) and now we have $163M committed to 9 players. Throw in $15M for benefits, with a luxury tax line of $208M, we have $30M to cover the cost of 31 roster players.

 

Gone are Xander, Pearce, Moreland, Nunez, Thornburg, Holt.

 

You'll have 15 players making league minimum of $550K. Say that's $8M. You now have $22M for Beni, Devers, Barnes, Brasier,.....basically 16 players for $22M, which is doable.

 

The team would still be competitive 2020.

 

SP Price, Sale, Eovaldi, E Rod, Wright, Johnson, Hector

BP Brasier, Barnes, etc

C Vaz

1B Chavis

2B Pedroia

SS Lin

3B Devers

LF Beni

CF JBJ

RF Betts

DH Martinez

 

You can trade Vaz for cheaper option. Delta for Betts is $13M more to get to magic $35M, going from arbitration #3 to FA.

 

We can blow through the budget for 2021 at 20% penalty and 2022 at 30% penalty. At the conclusion of 2022, Price's $31M will come off the books along with Pedey's $13.75M, which will have come off year earlier.

 

Again, goal is to win the world series.

 

Build a team around Beni, Betts, Devers, JBJ and Martinez. Throw in Price, Eovaldi, Sale and E Rod. Other teams have much less.

Edited December 30, 2018 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

No one player is bigger than the team. Ever.

 

It's not really about a player being bigger than the team. It's about truly elite players who bring you success on and off the field. Players like Yaz and Pedro and Manny and Ortiz.

[Northern Star]

It's not really about a player being bigger than the team. It's about truly elite players who bring you success on and off the field. Players like Yaz and Pedro and Manny and Ortiz.

 

Yes it is when you suggest throwing $400 mil at one guy when you need a roster of 25. However good that one player is, he doesn't field every position. Some people here are "do what it takes" because they're hopelessly in love with Betts. I'm saying if it hurts the team as a whole, no.

[moonslav59]

I liked your analysis of prioritizing current Sox players as they become FA.

 

I have as much fascination with Sale as I do with Betts. Here we have a player that clearly wants to be with Red Sox. I think he'll take an extension of say 6 year, $180M. I simply love his competitiveness on the mound. We gave up a lot for his three years of service, albeit team friendly contract.

 

I would love to keep Sale and JD Martinez and reset, if that's possible.

 

In reality, we have only 4 contracts for 2020. Price ($31M), Eovaldi ($17M), Pedroia ($13.75M) and Vaz ($4.52M) for total of $66.27M. 3 major arbitration players are Betts (say $22M), JBJ (say $11M) and E Rod ($8.50M). That brings total to 7 players at $108M. Add Sale at $30M and JD at $25M (front loaded) and now we have $163M committed to 9 players. Throw in $15M for benefits, with a luxury tax line of $208M, we have $30M to cover the cost of 31 roster players.

 

Gone are Xander, Pearce, Moreland, Nunez, Thornburg, Holt.

 

You'll have 15 players making league minimum of $550K. Say that's $8M. You now have $22M for Beni, Devers, Barnes, Brasier,.....basically 16 players for $22M, which is doable.

 

The team would still be competitive 2020.

 

SP Price, Sale, Eovaldi, E Rod, Wright, Johnson, Hector

BP Brasier, Barnes, etc

C Vaz

1B Chavis

2B Pedroia

SS Lin

3B Devers

LF Beni

CF JBJ

RF Betts

DH Martinez

 

You can trade Vaz for cheaper option. Delta for Betts is $13M more to get to magic $35M, going from arbitration #3 to FA.

 

We can blow through the budget for 2021 at 20% penalty and 2022 at 30% penalty. At the conclusion of 2022, Price's $31M will come off the books along with Pedey's $13.75M, which will have come off year earlier.

 

Again, goal is to win the world series.

 

Build a team around Beni, Betts, Devers, JBJ and Martinez. Throw in Price, Eovaldi, Sale and E Rod. Other teams have much less.

 

I think the 15 minor league players make less than $550, so we will have a little more than you suggest.

 

However, we have some arb players in 2020, so that $16M for 9 players is actually not accurate. Plus, it's hard to win with 16 players making an average of $1.4M.

 

2020 arbs beyond Betts, ERod & JBJ:

Barnes 2 of 3

Leon 4 of 4

Wright 3 of 3

Hembree 2 of 3

Workman 3 of 3

Swihart 2 of 4

Beni's1st arb

 

I suppose we could trade all of these, except Beni, and maybe get some min wage decent talent, but a team with just 11-12 stars and 13 scubs will not be a contender.

 

Barnes, Beni and Wright's arbs might eat up most of the $16M you speak of, leaving no money for the other 13 players.

 

Edited December 30, 2018 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Yes it is when you suggest throwing $400 mil at one guy when you need a roster of 25. However good that one player is, he doesn't field every position. Some people here are "do what it takes" because they're hopelessly in love with Betts. I'm saying if it hurts the team as a whole, no.

 

I don't think $400 mill is in the picture. But we have to see what Machado and Harper get.

[Nick]

I think the 15 minor league players make less than $550, so we will have a little more than you suggest.

 

However, we have some arb players in 2020, so that $16M for 9 players is actually not accurate. Plus, it's hard to win with 16 players making an average of $1.4M.

 

2020 arbs beyond Betts, ERod & JBJ:

Barnes 2 of 3

Leon 4 of 4

Wright 3 of 3

Hembree 2 of 3

Workman 3 of 3

Swihart 2 of 4

Beni's1st arb

 

I suppose we could trade all of these, except Beni, and maybe get some min wage decent talent, but a team with just 11-12 stars and 13 scubs will not be a contender.

 

Barnes, Beni and Wright's arbs might eat up most of the $16M you speak of, leaving no money for the other 13 players.

 

 

I get that Moon. But how do we reset while keeping Sale, JD along with Betts, JBJ, Beni, Devers, as outlined above. I need to see the numbers from you. Show me how you would get to $208M less $15M in benefits. Are you willing to let Sale and JD go?

[jacksonianmarch]

Here’s the thing with Mookie. He has no real cheap seasons left. He’s gonna get $18 mil or so in 2019 and he’ll be mid $20 mil in 2020. It isn’t like they’re trading pre arbitration years where the guys make less than $1 mil. So I know it sounds like Mookie has to give up something, but he really doesn’t. If the Sox let Mookie hit the market, his price will be higher

[moonslav59]

Yes it is when you suggest throwing $400 mil at one guy when you need a roster of 25. However good that one player is, he doesn't field every position. Some people here are "do what it takes" because they're hopelessly in love with Betts. I'm saying if it hurts the team as a whole, no.

 

We won paying HRam, Pablo and Castillo over $50M.

 

It certainly is a big risk, and to me it's a close call, but I'd give Betts $360/12.

[moonslav59]

I get that Moon. But how do we reset while keeping Sale, JD along with Betts, JBJ, Beni, Devers, as outlined above. I need to see the numbers from you. Show me how you would get to $208M less $15M in benefits. Are you willing to let Sale and JD go?

 

You know I love Sale, and who doesn't love JD, but with Price on the books, I can't see how we keep all 4: Betts, Price, Sale & JD. If we do, then there can be no Porcello, Bogey, JBJ and anyone else making more than $10M a year, meaning we'd probably have to trade Eovaldi, Barnes, Wright maybe JBJ and Vaz and/or others. This is why I am a cliff dweller.

 

Trying to keep all 4 (Betts, Sale, JD and Price as we reset would likely mean seeing this team for 2020, and it begs the question- why keep all these 4, if we'd have no chance to win in 2020, and maybe even adding $40M+ to the 2021 budget might not be enough?

 

Lets try to keep Eovaldi, JBJ and Vaz...

 

31 Sale

31 Price

17 Eovaldo

9 ERod

4 Wright (Injured)

1 Johnson/Velazquez/Shwaryn

 

1 Brasier

1 Feltman

1 Lakins

1 Poyner

1 Walden

1 Brewer

 

1. Beni LF $4

2. Betts RF $24

3. Devers 3B $1

4. JD DH $24

5. JBJ CF $12

6. Chavis/Dalbec 1B $1

7. Pedey/Lin 2B $14

8. Chatham SS $1

9. Vaz C $4

 

4 bench guys $4M

 

$15M benefits

 

This is about $203M min. That leaves $5M to upgrade the pen, SS, 1B, 2B...

 

It's not happening.

 

Edited December 30, 2018 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

I would guess that Mookie would not be able to refuse that deal, but as a GM, there is no way in the world that I would offer that deal.

 

Part of the team's reasoning for buying out some control years is to be able to get some free agent years at a cheaper rate. It should be a deal where both sides benefit. How are the Sox benefiting from that deal? They are taking all of the risk with no reward. Mookie is getting all of the reward with no risk.

 

My final offer to Mookie would be an 8 year deal from now, meaning a 6 year extension, at $30 mil a year. Throw in a couple of opt outs if necessary. That, to me, is still breaking the bank on a player, but I'm also trying to be realistic.

 

Let me rephrase that. Mookie would be stupid to pass up Jacko's contract.

[Kimmi]

I get Kimmi's reticence on long-term megacontracts, and typically I agree, but right now Mookie is looking like that once-in-a-generation type of player worth biting the bullet and backing up the $$$ truck for.

 

Gun to my head, I'd probably offer him what Jacko proposed and hope for the best.

 

I get the sentiment for wanting to keep Mookie regardless of the cost. The first half of the contract will be great. Mookie might even end up being worth the contract overall because of his great play during the first part of the contract.

 

But when those albatross years hit...