Francisco Cervelli

[Dojji]

A consistent 2-3 inning middle guy would be amazing. Those guys don't happen very often, especially pitchers who can do that kind of long relief everyman role for more than a season or two.

 

There have, however been a lot of teams that thought they had a guy like that only to turn around and ruin a perfectly good reliever's arm because he wasn't quite as durable as they tricked themselves into thinking he was The "long middle relief" role is a pit of death and despair for young relievers. Guys like Alfredo Aceves and Junichi Tazawa and Manny Delcarmen and others like them can get it done for a year or two and then they either get hurt or lose effectiveness. It's not a sustainable long term role for any pitcher.

 

Prediction: He'll be a guy who can be relied on for 1+ innings on a fairly regular basis. Using him more aggressively than that is just another word for murder.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Dojji

[Bellhorn04]

A consistent 2-3 inning middle guy would be amazing. Those guys don't happen very often, especially pitchers who can do that kind of long relief everyman role for more than a season or two.

 

There have, however been a lot of teams that thought they had a guy like that only to turn around and ruin a perfectly good reliever's arm because he wasn't quite as durable as they tricked themselves into thinking he was The "long middle relief" role is a pit of death and despair for young relievers. Guys like Alfredo Aceves and Junichi Tazawa and Manny Delcarmen and others like them can get it done for a year or two and then they either get hurt or lose effectiveness. It's not a sustainable long term role for any pitcher.

 

Prediction: He'll be a guy who can be relied on for 1+ innings on a fairly regular basis. Using him more aggressively than that is just another word for murder.

 

If you look at Beeks's game log with the Rays this year, his last 6 outings were all between 2 and 3.2 innings. But you'll also see plenty of rest days off in between.

[Kimmi]

I think you put him in a full time role he will produce, probably won’t happen in Boston, but if he gets traded i think he will produce.

 

I also think he would be able to produce if he were given some regular playing time. I really like the idea of having that 3rd catcher on our roster, but sadly, I don't think Swihart will be given the playing time to warrant a spot on the 25 man roster, unless Leon or Vaz is traded. I think it's time to cut bait with Swihart.

[Fisk]

I also think he would be able to produce if he were given some regular playing time. I really like the idea of having that 3rd catcher on our roster, but sadly, I don't think Swihart will be given the playing time to warrant a spot on the 25 man roster, unless Leon or Vaz is traded. I think it's time to cut bait with Swihart.

I agree

[notin]

Unless there is an injury somewhere, there’s no room for Swihart on the roster. If Pedroia is on the 25 man roster, the four bench spots go to Leon, Pearce, Nunez and Holt.

 

Now if Pedroia starts the year on the DL, maybe Swihart has a chance.

 

So that bait is all but cut...

[S5Dewey]

I also think he would be able to produce if he were given some regular playing time. I really like the idea of having that 3rd catcher on our roster, but sadly, I don't think Swihart will be given the playing time to warrant a spot on the 25 man roster, unless Leon or Vaz is traded. I think it's time to cut bait with Swihart.

 

I agree on all points. Cutting bait with Swi would be the best thing for all involved, including Swihart. I'd like to see a team pick him up who can give him a real chance and that's not going to happen in Boston.

[Kimmi]

Unless there is an injury somewhere, there’s no room for Swihart on the roster. If Pedroia is on the 25 man roster, the four bench spots go to Leon, Pearce, Nunez and Holt.

 

Now if Pedroia starts the year on the DL, maybe Swihart has a chance.

 

So that bait is all but cut...

 

Even when there was room for him on the roster, Cora seemed rather reluctant to start play him for some reason.

[Kimmi]

I agree on all points. Cutting bait with Swi would be the best thing for all involved, including Swihart. I'd like to see a team pick him up who can give him a real chance and that's not going to happen in Boston.

 

Agree. Swihart deserves a chance to get some regular playing time elsewhere.

 

It's too bad we can't make him a super utility type. I like the guy.

[cp176]

You know what, i don't think that the Red Sox are particularly enamored with any of their catchers. 2 out of the 3 are pretty good receivers who really can't hit a lick. I'm thinking that Leon is actually the better receiver. As for Swihart, who in the hell can tell? I just hope that eventually he gets a chance to prove us all either right or wrong. If a better all around option just appeared in the mist, I'm thinking that DD would jump all over it. For the Sox though it just doesn't seem like a position they need to spend much time worrying about.

[sk7326]

The Sox catchers are basically a case of range of outcomes ...

 

Leon has the smallest range of outcomes - a good receiver who is just a poor hitter. A team with our offense otherwise can carry him, but he is a weak spot. It is what it is.

 

Swihart has the largest range of outcomes - just a lot of natural talent and injuries have gotten in the way. There is a better chance he can be a plus offensively and a solid defensive catcher. But between injuries and a lack of major league performance, we're just going on eye test

 

Vazquez is somewhere in the middle. Defensively, he is excellent. He is a good enough receiver/gamecaller. Is it possible that he can hit more like the guy who we had late in the season? If so - then he is a well above average starter. That a streak like that is inside of him (and that he has flashed it multiple times) makes him at worst an okay starter/excellent jobbsharer. The one thing I see offensively is that he does put good at bats together, and he is a tough guy to strike out. What varies is whether he can make hard contact consistently.

 

I would suspect Cora and Dombrowski would prefer if the offensive form Vazquez showed in October was relatively sustainable. A .270/.330/(who cares) with his receiving would be a terrific outcome.

Edited December 14, 2018 by sk7326

[oldtimer]

The Sox catchers are basically a case of range of outcomes ...

 

Leon has the smallest range of outcomes - a good receiver who is just a poor hitter. A team with our offense otherwise can carry him, but he is a weak spot. It is what it is.

 

Swihart has the largest range of outcomes - just a lot of natural talent and injuries have gotten in the way. There is a better chance he can be a plus offensively and a solid defensive catcher. But between injuries and a lack of major league performance, we're just going on eye test

 

Vazquez is somewhere in the middle. Defensively, he is excellent. He is a good enough receiver/gamecaller. Is it possible that he can hit more like the guy who we had late in the season? If so - then he is a well above average starter. That a streak like that is inside of him (and that he has flashed it multiple times) makes him at worst an okay starter/excellent jobbsharer. The one thing I see offensively is that he does put good at bats together, and he is a tough guy to strike out. What varies is whether he can make hard contact consistently.

 

I would suspect Cora and Dombrowski would prefer if the offensive form Vazquez showed in October was relatively sustainable. A .270/.330/(who cares) with his receiving would be a terrific outcome.

 

Unlike others, I don't think the matter is settled in DD's mind. I do think Vaz will be our #1 catcher for the reasons you mentioned. I don't think the choice of Leon or Swihart has been made at this point. While Swihart has marginally better trade value than Leon, he is younger and possibly could have upside as a hitter. Leon could be the odd man out as easily as Swihart.

[moonslav59]

I just don't see Swihart passing Leon. He couldn't even pass him during a .511 season, including Sandy having a .208 OPS over his last 23 games (64 PAs). Yes, a .208 OPS! Not BA, not OBP, not SLG% BUT OPS!

 

Swihart's record with almost all our starters is way worse than Vaz and Leon. I think Sox management obviously values that highly, or else Swihart would have been give a longer look at catcher last year. He basically only catches when Vaz or Leon are hurt.

[notin]

The Sox catchers are basically a case of range of outcomes ...

 

Leon has the smallest range of outcomes - a good receiver who is just a poor hitter. A team with our offense otherwise can carry him, but he is a weak spot. It is what it is.

 

Swihart has the largest range of outcomes - just a lot of natural talent and injuries have gotten in the way. There is a better chance he can be a plus offensively and a solid defensive catcher. But between injuries and a lack of major league performance, we're just going on eye test

 

Vazquez is somewhere in the middle. Defensively, he is excellent. He is a good enough receiver/gamecaller. Is it possible that he can hit more like the guy who we had late in the season? If so - then he is a well above average starter. That a streak like that is inside of him (and that he has flashed it multiple times) makes him at worst an okay starter/excellent jobbsharer. The one thing I see offensively is that he does put good at bats together, and he is a tough guy to strike out. What varies is whether he can make hard contact consistently.

 

I would suspect Cora and Dombrowski would prefer if the offensive form Vazquez showed in October was relatively sustainable. A .270/.330/(who cares) with his receiving would be a terrific outcome.

 

Quick summary - Leon has the lowest ceiling, but Swihart has the lowest floor...

[Bellhorn04]

Quick summary - Leon has the lowest ceiling, but Swihart has the lowest floor...

 

But if you're talking strictly offense, you can't have a much lower floor than Sandy.

[Bellhorn04]

On offense, Sandy's floor is the sub-basement.

[Bellhorn04]

Sandy sometimes needs binoculars to see the Mendoza Line.

[moonslav59]

Hard to think Sandy hit over .800 in over 250 PAs not too long ago!'

 

I can't see Swihart's ceiling being that high.

 

[Kimmi]

Unlike others, I don't think the matter is settled in DD's mind. I do think Vaz will be our #1 catcher for the reasons you mentioned. I don't think the choice of Leon or Swihart has been made at this point. While Swihart has marginally better trade value than Leon, he is younger and possibly could have upside as a hitter. Leon could be the odd man out as easily as Swihart.

 

You may be right Oldtimer. Unfortunately, Swihart has never received consistent enough playing time in the majors for us to know whether he is good enough to share duties with Vaz. Counting on Swihart to catch roughly 40% of our games is a big risk, IMO. And I don't think it's a good idea to give Vazquez more catching time than 60% that due to wear and tear.

 

Or maybe I'm just really fond of the Vaz/Leon tandem.

[oldtimer]

You may be right Oldtimer. Unfortunately, Swihart has never received consistent enough playing time in the majors for us to know whether he is good enough to share duties with Vaz. Counting on Swihart to catch roughly 40% of our games is a big risk, IMO. And I don't think it's a good idea to give Vazquez more catching time than 60% that due to wear and tear.

 

Or maybe I'm just really fond of the Vaz/Leon tandem.

 

I'm reading between the lines from what DD has been quot6ed as saying. I really think it is an open question but that Vaz is safely in.

[notin]

Unlike others, I don't think the matter is settled in DD's mind. I do think Vaz will be our #1 catcher for the reasons you mentioned. I don't think the choice of Leon or Swihart has been made at this point. While Swihart has marginally better trade value than Leon, he is younger and possibly could have upside as a hitter. Leon could be the odd man out as easily as Swihart.

 

 

Leon actually looks like the most likely one to be on the Sox in2019. Despite all his shortcomings and the obvious over abundance of mediocre catchers, he was still offered arbitration. That Sale appears to like pitching to him might be a big factor here as well.

 

Vazquez might be the starter, but he’s also most likely to actually get a useful piece in a trade. Swihart has no real reade value except that he has more upside than Leon and makes the least money of the three.

 

If there are no injuries, it’s very possible Swihart gets DFAd before the season starts...

[Bellhorn04]

Vazquez might be the starter, but he’s also most likely to actually get a useful piece in a trade. Swihart has no real reade value except that he has more upside than Leon and makes the least money of the three.

 

If there are no injuries, it’s very possible Swihart gets DFAd before the season starts...

 

Don't you think Swihart might have some *modest* trade value for a small market team that needs a catcher?

[Dojji]

No, I really don't. Catchers like Swihart are a literal dime a dozen, unless he shows he can actually still do what he did multiple injuries ago in 2015

[Bellhorn04]

No, I really don't. Catchers like Swihart are a literal dime a dozen, unless he shows he can actually still do what he did multiple injuries ago in 2015

 

He's somewhat of an upside play because he's a better athlete than those dime a dozens you're referencing. Dombrowski must have seen him as such or he wouldn't have hung onto him so long.

[notin]

Don't you think Swihart might have some *modest* trade value for a small market team that needs a catcher?

 

Define “modest”. Only yesterday he was a suggested key for getting Zack Wheeler.

 

If you were GM of, oh, let’s say the Oakland A’s. You have very weak catching depth (Josh Phegley, Chris Herrmann) and no real money to spend. And you were a playoff team one year ago and hope to return.

 

Would you target Swihart as a viable catching option? (Keeping in mind your standards already targeted Phegley and Hermannn). Or would you target other options? And what would you give up for Swihart, keeping in mind Caleb Joseph and Nick Hundley can probably be had for similar or less money?

[Bellhorn04]

Define “modest”. Only yesterday he was a suggested key for getting Zack Wheeler.

 

If you were GM of, oh, let’s say the Oakland A’s. You have very weak catching depth (Josh Phegley, Chris Herrmann) and no real money to spend. And you were a playoff team one year ago and hope to return.

 

Would you target Swihart as a viable catching option? (Keeping in mind your standards already targeted Phegley and Hermannn). Or would you target other options? And what would you give up for Swihart, keeping in mind Caleb Joseph and Nick Hundley can probably be had for similar or less money?

 

I should have said small market team with no playoff aspirations.

[notin]

I should have said small market team with no playoff aspirations.

 

You know, all you have to do is answer and it gets tough for me to prove you wrong. I can argue, but nothing definitive.

 

Fine - if you’re GM of the Marlins and you just traded Realmuto without getting a catcher back (the receiving team didn’t have any that were worthwhile). So - where is Swihart on your priority list and what would you give up for him?

[Bellhorn04]

You know, all you have to do is answer and it gets tough for me to prove you wrong. I can argue, but nothing definitive.

 

Fine - if you’re GM of the Marlins and you just traded Realmuto without getting a catcher back (the receiving team didn’t have any that were worthwhile). So - where is Swihart on your priority list and what would you give up for him?

 

I'm not good at this part. I would guess Swihart gets you back a lottery ticket prospect.

[notin]

I'm not good at this part. I would guess Swihart gets you back a lottery ticket prospect.

 

 

A type of trade I would consider one step above a DFA...

[Dojji]

He's somewhat of an upside play because he's a better athlete than those dime a dozens you're referencing. Dombrowski must have seen him as such or he wouldn't have hung onto him so long.

 

You're really reaching. The Swihart that exists right now is extremely replaceable and no one is going to give up very much to put him on their team.

[notin]

You're really reaching. The Swihart that exists right now is extremely replaceable and no one is going to give up very much to put him on their team.

 

I believe even Bellhorn agrees Swihart won’t get “very much,” as he did say lottery ticket prospect. Vehicle is essentially what Swihart is.

 

I read somewhere Cora wants a defensive 3b, most likely for a late-inning defensive replacement. THAT is the probable ceiling of a Swihart trade...