Francisco Cervelli

[Fisk]

I think Travis gets DFA'd upon our next signing.

 

I hope not but has not lived up to expectations

[notin]

I hope not but has not lived up to expectations

 

Travis, Hernandez, Walden. All could be DFAd at some point this off-season...

[Fisk]

Travis, Hernandez, Walden. All could be DFAd at some point this off-season...

I would add shepherd to that list also.

[notin]

I would add shepherd to that list also.

 

And Swihart...

[Fisk]

And Swihart...

 

I would imagine Swihart has trade value.

[notin]

I would imagine Swihart has trade value.

 

I like to think so, but I’m not sure how much he has. The only thing for certain is that he has to go. He won’t make the 25 man roster unless the right people get injured...

[Fisk]

I like to think so, but I’m not sure how much he has. The only thing for certain is that he has to go. He won’t make the 25 man roster unless the right people get injured...

I’m still intrigued by his bat.

[moonslav59]

Travis, Hernandez, Walden. All could be DFAd at some point this off-season...

 

Marco may be first.

[Fisk]

Marco may be first.

 

Robby Scott could be another one

[harmony]

I’m still intrigued by his bat.

Blake Swihart has an OPS+ of 82 in 597 MLB plate appearances, including an OPS+ of 66 in 214 plate appearances over the past two seasons:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml

 

With his career wRC+ of 83, Steamer projects Swihart with a 2019 wRC+ of 75:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

[Fisk]

Blake Swihart has an OPS+ of 82 in 597 MLB plate appearances, including an OPS+ of 66 in 214 plate appearances over the past two seasons:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml

 

With his career wRC+ of 83, Steamer projects Swihart with a 2019 wRC+ of 75:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

 

Thanks for the info much needed

[Emp9]

Swihart is probably gone and to have no real outfield depth on the 40 man doesn't make sense. Say Betts, JBJ or Beni got hurt. Is that the time to trade for another outfielder. I would rather have depth in the system. Hate to rely o JDM as a regular outfielder.

 

I think we burn that bridge if/when we get to it. There’s very good reasons why we have zero depth there. It’s not a bad thing that we graduated the prospects we wanted to keep and have a homegrown OF. Trades took care of the rest and I don’t regret them too much either.

 

I think Billy Hamilton is available. (?) He’d be nice depth, defensively & as a pinch runner. I’d look for someone like him that shouldn’t demand a lot of playing time, & helps us in other areas. Are there OFers you think the Sox should be looking at for depth?

[OH FOY]

Hey Moe! Edited December 10, 2018 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

WTF that has to do with wins and losses? I think Harmony is not real, he's a computer.

[notin]

I think we burn that bridge if/when we get to it. There’s very good reasons why we have zero depth there. It’s not a bad thing that we graduated the prospects we wanted to keep and have a homegrown OF. Trades took care of the rest and I don’t regret them too much either.

 

I think Billy Hamilton is available. (?) He’d be nice depth, defensively & as a pinch runner. I’d look for someone like him that shouldn’t demand a lot of playing time, & helps us in other areas. Are there OFers you think the Sox should be looking at for depth?

 

The Sox probably need OF depth with minor league options. Per soxprospects.com, Sam Travis is slated to play LF this year, meaning he might be some depth. They also might sign a minor league deal to someone like JB Shuck or Matt Szczur or Rajai Davis or ?

[mvp 78]

I’m still intrigued by his bat.

 

I'm intrigued that some people think his bat has anything in it. He hasn't shown anything since 2014 in AA.

[Jack Flap]

I'm intrigued that some people think his bat has anything in it. He hasn't shown anything since 2014 in AA.

 

If this was about Swihart, I'd say his 274/.319/.392 (.303/.353/.452 in the second half) in 2015 qualifies as "showing something" considering he was rushed due to injuries and really should have still been in Triple-A at that point...the average catcher hit .238/.302/.376 that season. And that was really the last time he got any sort of consistent playing time at any level.

[Jack Flap]

As for Cervelli, I don't see how he really moves the needle for us much...pick any two of the three catchers currently on the roster to keep, trade the other (I'd probably prefer Leon, as his ceiling is lower than the other two), sign a Dan Butler replacement to be your emergency depth in Triple-A, and I think you're fine. No sense expending scarce resources trading for a catcher unless it's a real difference-maker.

[notin]

If this was about Swihart, I'd say his 274/.319/.392 (.303/.353/.452 in the second half) in 2015 qualifies as "showing something" considering he was rushed due to injuries and really should have still been in Triple-A at that point...the average catcher hit .238/.302/.376 that season. And that was really the last time he got any sort of consistent playing time at any level.

 

But that was also four years and a few injuries ago. Is he really still even that capable?

[notin]

As for Cervelli, I don't see how he really moves the needle for us much...pick any two of the three catchers currently on the roster to keep, trade the other (I'd probably prefer Leon, as his ceiling is lower than the other two), sign a Dan Butler replacement to be your emergency depth in Triple-A, and I think you're fine. No sense expending scarce resources trading for a catcher unless it's a real difference-maker.

 

I would think Cervelli is actually a pretty good difference maker. Vazquez is a weakness on offense and Leon is a black hole. All three are good defenders. It’s definitely an upgrade, but not a long term one..

[mvp 78]

If this was about Swihart, I'd say his 274/.319/.392 (.303/.353/.452 in the second half) in 2015 qualifies as "showing something" considering he was rushed due to injuries and really should have still been in Triple-A at that point...the average catcher hit .238/.302/.376 that season. And that was really the last time he got any sort of consistent playing time at any level.

 

I'm not sure how a contending team like the Sox give Swihart consistent playing time. They need to win games and if Swihart isn't producing in short spurts, there's no incentive to playing him 150 games just because you feel like it.

 

And that .391 BABIP in the second half of 2015 (his best at any level over a long stretch) may have played a very large part in the numbers he put up that year.

[kenmeister]

I hope Swihart gets a larger role on another team.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure how a contending team like the Sox give Swihart consistent playing time. They need to win games and if Swihart isn't producing in short spurts, there's no incentive to playing him 150 games just because you feel like it.

 

And that .391 BABIP in the second half of 2015 (his best at any level over a long stretch) may have played a very large part in the numbers he put up that year.

 

...and that second half was just 168 PAs.

 

It would be nice to see him get a chance at 400 PAs, but I just don't see it happening here. Even if we have a major cathcer injury, I'd bet we trade for someone rather than let Swihart play FT.

[Dojji]

Swihart has to start getting it done in his cameos if he wants a full time role. If he doesn't, he won't ever get the chance and yes, that will be his fault.

[Fisk]

Swihart has to start getting it done in his cameos if he wants a full time role. If he doesn't, he won't ever get the chance and yes, that will be his fault.

 

I think you put him in a full time role he will produce, probably won’t happen in Boston, but if he gets traded i think he will produce.

[kenmeister]

I think you put him in a full time role he will produce, probably won’t happen in Boston, but if he gets traded i think he will produce.

 

I feel similarly about Hector Velazquez as a starter.

[Dojji]

I disagree about both. I think Swihart's bat is too slow for the big leagues and I know Velazquez is too hittable to survive long in the rotation.

 

Look at HV's underlying numbers. He gives up a ton of baserunners. WHIP of over 1.4 which is VERY bad news, especially for a guy with reasonable command. It means he's getting hit a lot, and with a h/9 of over 9, he was. Better to restrict a guy like that to short appearances if you don't want him getting exposed.

 

As a starter, Velazquez had a .872 OPS against this year, .888 career. Not a guy I want to give more innings to. Leave him in the bullpen where he pitches pretty well and you can control his matchups. Moving this guy to the rotation is an invitation to almost certain disaster.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Dojji

[Spudboy]

But that was also four years and a few injuries ago. Is he really still even that capable?

 

Why would you suspect that he is not if the injuries are not an impairment?

[notin]

Why would you suspect that he is not if the injuries are not an impairment?

 

 

Sometimes recovery isn’t 100%...

[moonslav59]

I disagree about both. I think Swihart's bat is too slow for the big leagues and I know Velazquez is too hittable to survive long in the rotation.

 

Look at HV's underlying numbers. He gives up a ton of baserunners. WHIP of over 1.4 which is VERY bad news, especially for a guy with reasonable command. It means he's getting hit a lot, and with a h/9 of over 9, he was. Better to restrict a guy like that to short appearances if you don't want him getting exposed.

 

As a starter, Velazquez had a .872 OPS against this year, .888 career. Not a guy I want to give more innings to. Leave him in the bullpen where he pitches pretty well and you can control his matchups. Moving this guy to the rotation is an invitation to almost certain disaster.

 

I agree. and though I have not given up on either one, I would not bet on them having a plus career going forward.

 

I think Velazquez has the better chance, but I think his best role might be a 2-3 inning middle guy.