A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

 

Lol. You’re an idiot

 

A very special idiot.

[OH FOY]

9-1 lead in 3rd inning, have to take it easy too, on the E-Rod is on track again. Then another 5 runs, I went back and forth on this game, this game was over in 4th inning.

It will take a little more to see if ERod is efficient on his pitches. Sorry, the ole leopard and spot thing.

Edited May 5, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Kimmi]

JBJ's offense not withstanding, I found it odd that Cora moved Beni to CF and put Pearce in LF last night when Lin went down. I expected JBJ to be put in CF. That demonstrates how committed Cora is to days off for players.

 

He did this last year too. Early in the year, he did not even have a guy pinch hit in a key situation if he had given that player the day off.

[Kimmi]

I was thinking the same thing last year, too.

 

Having a peak Sale in October should be the number one priority on Sale.

 

I'd rather be a wild card team with a peaking Sale than a division winner with a burnt out Sale- not that we can't win the division AND keep Sale fresh.

 

There has to be a balance between winning games throughout the season and keeping our guys fresh enough to be able to win games in October.

 

I trust Cora to know what that balance is.

[Kimmi]

We have won the A.L. East three straight years. The goal has to be to win it again .

 

Back to back to back to back.

[Kimmi]

In the past decade the Red Sox record after 33 games and at the end of the regular season:

2019: 15-18, xx-xx

2018: 24-9, 108-54 *

2017: 17-16, 93-69 *

2016: 20-13, 93-69 *

2015: 15-18, 78-84

2014: 16-17, 71-91

2013: 21-12, 97-65 *

2012: 14-19, 69-93

2011: 15-18, 90-72

2010: 17-16, 89-73

 

* advanced to postseason

 

What's your point Harmony?

[Bellhorn04]

Back to back to back to back.

 

I would like to see a picture of four things that are back to back to back to back.

[Kimmi]

I would like to see a picture of four things that are back to back to back to back.

 

LOL I will post this picture after the Red Sox win the division this year!

[Kimmi]

Over the past 21 games, the starting rotation has an ERA of 3.09.

 

We are 7-3 in our last 10 games with a +36 run differential.

 

Things appear to be moving in the right direction.

[Bellhorn04]

Over the last 2 seasons the Sox are 26-8 in starts by E-Rod. Some of that is good luck with run support obviously.

[devildavid]

There really isn't much ground to make up to get a Wild Card spot. At the start of the day we're 2.5 games out of the second spot, with 80% of the season to go.

 

But the Rays are for real, IMO. We do have our work cut out to win the division.

 

That is assuming all those other teams current records don't reflect on how good they are and that the Sox current record doesn't reflect how bad they are.

[Maxbialystock]

What's your point Harmony?

 

Let me try that one. In the past 10 years, only one Sox team, 2011, had a losing record after 33 games and finished with a winning record. And, as it turns out, the 2011 team missed the playoffs, finishing 3d in the AL East behind the Yankees and, wait for it, the Rays.

 

I like you am encouraged by recent games, but the Sox did in fact dig themselves into a hole.

[Kimmi]

Let me try that one. In the past 10 years, only one Sox team, 2011, had a losing record after 33 games and finished with a winning record. And, as it turns out, the 2011 team missed the playoffs, finishing 3d in the AL East behind the Yankees and, wait for it, the Rays.

 

I like you am encouraged by recent games, but the Sox did in fact dig themselves into a hole.

 

I know what Harmony was trying to show us. No need. We all know how bad this team has started off.

 

Harmony can come see me in October.

[moonslav59]

Let me try that one. In the past 10 years, only one Sox team, 2011, had a losing record after 33 games and finished with a winning record. And, as it turns out, the 2011 team missed the playoffs, finishing 3d in the AL East behind the Yankees and, wait for it, the Rays.

 

I like you am encouraged by recent games, but the Sox did in fact dig themselves into a hole.

 

Nobody has denied the hole we dug ourselves into, but to compare this team to others that started off this poorly in recent years is not telling me anything I didn't already know. This team is not those teams. None of those teams won 108 games and breezed through the playoffs the previous season with pretty much the same team.

 

Besides, the hole we dug is not as big as it might have been. There are not that many great AL teams, and despite our poor start, we are just 5.5 behind the Rays for 1st place and 3.5 behind the Guardians (who just lost Kluber) for the last wild card slot. There were better AL teams in 2011 than there are in 2019.

 

While the Twins and Rays look for real, the Guardians no longer scare me. The A's don't either. My guess is 2 AL east teams win the wild card slots, and I still love our chances at winning the division.

 

[Nick]

Nobody has denied the hole we dug ourselves into, but to compare this team to others that started off this poorly in recent years is not telling me anything I didn't already know. This team is not those teams. None of those teams won 108 games and breezed through the playoffs the previous season with pretty much the same team.

 

Besides, the hole we dug is not as big as it might have been. There are not that many great AL teams, and despite our poor start, we are just 5.5 behind the Rays for 1st place and 3.5 behind the Guardians (who just lost Kluber) for the last wild card slot. There were better AL teams in 2011 than there are in 2019.

 

While the Twins and Rays look for real, the Guardians no longer scare me. The A's don't either. My guess is 2 AL east teams win the wild card slots, and I still love our chances at winning the division.

 

 

When we come out of this slow start, while having found 'gems' in Chavis and Walden and expected return of Eovaldi at some point, then the team will be better for it come August/September.

 

I always get excited for newbies. 6+ years of team control for Chavis!

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS Last 28 Days (45+ PAs unless noted):

 

1.236 Chavis

.931 Betts

.892 Devers

.888 JD

.857 Vaz

.855 Beni

.849 Bogey

.707 Moreland

.602 Lin (21 PAs)

.490 Nunez (21)

.472 Leon (20)

.414 JBJ

.381 Pearce

.243 Pedey (21)

Sox OPS Last 14 Days (35+ PAs unless noted):

 

1.295 Chavis

1.082 Betts

.975 Devers

.878 Vaz

.876 Bogey

.842 Beni

.839 Lin (13 PAs)

.833 Nunez (6 PAs)

.729 JD

.593 Leon (14 PAs)

.506 JBJ

.473 Moreland

.368 Pearce

 

 

[moonslav59]

Sox ERA Last 28 Days: 4.06

 

(9+ IP)

1.88 Walden

2.63 Price

2.79 Workman

3.04 Porcello

3.12 Barnes

3.45 ERod

4.00 Brasier

4.22 Velazquez

4.33 Sale

4.35 Hembree

8.32 Brewer

9.28 Thornburg

 

Last 14 Days: 3.19

 

(5+ IP)

0.00 Walden

1.80 Hembree

1.93 Porcello

2.00 Sale

3.24 ERod

3.75 Price

5.40 Velazquez

6.75 Brewer

9.95 Thornburg

 

Under 5 IP

0.00 Workman (4.1 IP)

0.00 Barnes (3.2)

0.00 DHern (2.1)

3.38 Lakins (2.2)

6.75 Brasier (2.2)

 

 

[moonslav59]

OPS:

1. BOS .829 (.375 OBP!)

2. HOU .827

3. TEX .796

7. NYY .749

11. TB .682

 

Runs

77 BOS

74 TEX

73 HOU

 

65 NYY

 

45 TBR

 

ERA

1. BOS 3.12 (67 ERA-)

2. TBR 3.28 (76)

3. MN 3.55 (79)

4. CLE 3.62 (78)

7. NYY 4.30 (96)

 

xFIP

3.57 BOS

3.96 CLE

4.13 TBR

4.19 HOU

 

4.30 NYY

 

K-BB%

1. BOS 19.8

2. CLE 15.8

3. TBR 15.6

4. HOU 15.2

8. NYY 13.9

 

 

[moonslav59]

When we come out of this slow start, while having found 'gems' in Chavis and Walden and expected return of Eovaldi at some point, then the team will be better for it come August/September.

 

I always get excited for newbies. 6+ years of team control for Chavis!

 

The thing that gets me the most is how some people assume the team will continue doing (forever) what it has done over the most recent 2-3 weeks, however, once the team has done very well over the last 2-3 weeks, these same people want to now look at just the last 4-5 weeks not the last 2-3, not the last 365 days, not the last 3 years.

 

It's like they seek the worst possible sample size to use to project doom & gloom, and they never seem surprised when the projections come out wrong many times.

 

No way are we going to stay this hot (last 14 days), but our pitching was always better than the first 2-3 weeks showed.

 

I know the expression, "A pitcher is only as good as his last start" has some merit, but sometimes I think we take things to an extreme.

[notin]

When we come out of this slow start, while having found 'gems' in Chavis and Walden and expected return of Eovaldi at some point, then the team will be better for it come August/September.

 

I always get excited for newbies. 6+ years of team control for Chavis!

 

Walden is 30 years old and in his sixth organization with a spotty minor league history at best. While he may be doing well now, you’d be smarter to bet against him in the long run...

[Nick]

Walden is 30 years old and in his sixth organization with a spotty minor league history at best. While he may be doing well now, you’d be smarter to bet against him in the long run...

 

Team needs to move quickly on relievers. You have to ride the wave. They are disposable commodity. Cost is minimal. It's always knowing when to cut the ties. Thornburg is nearing it.

 

More of them versus major league starters. They are easier to come by.

 

Anyone here really think it was good idea to bring back Joe Kelly at $25M/3 yrs?

 

Moreland, Pearce, Holt and Nunez, all on one year deals right now. That's managing the risk. I always rather overpay slightly for one year deals.

Edited May 5, 2019 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

That is assuming all those other teams current records don't reflect on how good they are and that the Sox current record doesn't reflect how bad they are.

 

Yes, I certainly don't think the Red Sox are a sub-.500 team talent-wise.

 

It's virtually the same team that won 119 games last year. And so far, knock on wood, it's a relatively healthy team.

[Nick]

The thing that gets me the most is how some people assume the team will continue doing (forever) what it has done over the most recent 2-3 weeks, however, once the team has done very well over the last 2-3 weeks, these same people want to now look at just the last 4-5 weeks not the last 2-3, not the last 365 days, not the last 3 years.

 

It's like they seek the worst possible sample size to use to project doom & gloom, and they never seem surprised when the projections come out wrong many times.

 

No way are we going to stay this hot (last 14 days), but our pitching was always better than the first 2-3 weeks showed.

 

I know the expression, "A pitcher is only as good as his last start" has some merit, but sometimes I think we take things to an extreme.

 

It starts with guys like Betts. He's heating up a bit. When he gets hot, scoring runs become easier.

 

Right now it's all hands on deck and that means a guy like JBJ should sit against lefties, especially if Chavis continues to hit.

 

I like this team. Lots of moving parts, many ways to get guys into lineup.

 

Think what will happen when Pedey comes back and he HITS.

[dgalehouse]

How about a round of applause for Rick ( I won't be manager of the year ) Renteria . First , he uses a position player to pitch while down only five runs . Then he leaves poor Banuelos in to be humiliated by giving up ten consecutive hits and nine runs , before finally yanking him . Good job Rick . That's the way to build confidence in a young , " rebuilding " ballclub.

[moonslav59]

It starts with guys like Betts. He's heating up a bit. When he gets hot, scoring runs become easier.

 

Right now it's all hands on deck and that means a guy like JBJ should sit against lefties, especially if Chavis continues to hit.

 

I like this team. Lots of moving parts, many ways to get guys into lineup.

 

Think what will happen when Pedey comes back and he HITS.

 

We've done all this while JD hit just .729 in the last 14 days.

 

Yes, there are ups and downs by every player.

 

Jumping on the ones that are down seems futile to me. At least we should wait for a half season or so.

[MADSTORK]

DFA ERod?

 

lmao!

 

Career .500 pitcher with a 1.6 whip and knee injuries. Should have been traded in offseason while the value was high.

Inconsistent at best

 

Hernandez Mata and Groome in the system, you could have helped your pen or farm system by dealing the player.

[moonslav59]

One amazing thing about last year was that despite some unreal hot streaks, we really didn't have many down times, certainly nothing like our poor stretch out of the gates this year.

 

Here are the worst stretches I could fine from 2018:

 

Lost..

 

6 out of 8 near the end of August (and yes, some doom & gloomers came out of hiding then, too, so our lead was cut from 9.5 to 6)

 

5 out of 8 in mid May

 

5 out of 8 to end the regular season.

 

4 out of 5 in mid June

 

3 out of 5 in mid July

 

4 out of 7 near the start of September

 

Our longest losing stretch was going 9-11 from August 19 to September 8th. We ended the season going 20-18, then cruised through the playoffs.

 

Edited May 5, 2019 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Career .500 pitcher with a 1.6 whip and knee injuries.

 

His career winning percentage is .565 and his WHIP is 1.298, you moron.

[moonslav59]

His career winning percentage is .565 and his WHIP is 1.298, you moron.

 

...and if we traded him for a pen arm, who would be our starter over ERod?

 

With Eovaldi on the IL, we need ERod more than ever!

[notin]

Career .500 pitcher with a 1.6 whip and knee injuries. Should have been traded in offseason while the value was high.

Inconsistent at bestth

 

Hernandez Mata and Groome in the system, you could have helped your pen or farm system by dealing the player.

 

 

Right. The Sox should have dealt ERod and brought up Groome, ignoring his recent TJ surgery, and see how felt throwing right-handed for once...