A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

To me , it would be somewhat surprising if Harper got a better deal than Machado .

 

Machado's on-field antics appear to have cost him some money, as well they should have.

[notin]

Machado's on-field antics appear to have cost him some money, as well they should have.

 

Think it was his on-field antics and not just teams being reluctant to sign him through age 36 for a $30mill AAV?

 

His career has been somewhat parallel to that of Evan Longoria, and Longoria has not been the same player since signing his 10 year contract...

[Bellhorn04]

Think it was his on-field antics and not just teams being reluctant to sign him through age 36 for a $30mill AAV?

 

But the question is, why does Harper seem to be looking at a significantly bigger chunk of money than Machado?

[notin]

But the question is, why does Harper seem to be looking at a significantly bigger chunk of money than Machado?

 

 

Possibly because his ability to play OF seems to be more durable than Machado’s ability to play SS?

 

Also, Harper certainly was more marketable than any MLB player in MLB except Kris Bryant. Harper’s Q score was second highest in MLB recently, ahead of Trout and Betts. There is a reason this guy does more commercials...

[Bellhorn04]

Possibly because his ability to play OF seems to be more durable than Machado’s ability to play SS?

 

Also, Harper certainly was more marketable than any MLB player in MLB except Kris Bryant. Harper’s Q score was second highest in MLB recently, ahead of Trout and Betts. There is a reason this guy does more commercials...

 

So you would agree that non-baseball reasons are a factor. Machado's image is pretty bad right now.

[notin]

So you would agree that non-baseball reasons are a factor. Machado's image is pretty bad right now.

 

Well, there is a difference between Machado’s image being bad and not being as good as Harper’s.

 

 

In fact, I re-looked at the marketability article and it was from 2016. Harper trailed only Kris Bryant, but that was also right after the Cubs won the World Series. He’s probably more marketable than Bryant right now.

 

Machado does seem to be disliked by fans and Jesus Aguilar, but is he really so unpopular teams are avoiding him? It’s not like the other marquee free agents are falling into big deals left and right. Dallas Keuchel, for example, is still out there despite having a Cy Young award and no negative stigma whatsoever.

 

Most likely the reason is simple Occam’s Razor - Machado wants more than anyone wants to pay and no one thinks he is as valuable as his agent does...

[Bellhorn04]

Most likely the reason is simple Occam’s Razor - Machado wants more than anyone wants to pay and no one thinks he is as valuable as his agent does...

 

It also seems pretty simple to me that Machado has about the same baseball value on paper as Harper.

[Slasher9]

Personally I'd be satisfied if they made it a 2 batter minimum.

 

thats the slasher rule!

[moonslav59]

Interesting read...

 

Chris Sale and Extension Talks

[Slasher9]

Openers apparently are supported by analytics, which are all about increasing the chances of winning, not about providing the best entertainment for the fan.

 

That's often the conundrum with analytics.

 

an opener is intriguing if the opposing team has big time L-R splits. having a Right handed opener which forces the opposing manager to start all of his LH batters and then switching to a LH pitcher that can throw multiple innings in the 2nd inning is an advantage.

[cp176]

Interesting read...

 

Chris Sale and Extension Talks

 

Just read that and it is interesting.

[FredLynn]

But the question is, why does Harper seem to be looking at a significantly bigger chunk of money than Machado?

 

You don't know that for sure. I doubt Machado's off field antics are going to cost him much of anything at all. Its all about his play-and the reluctance of owners nowadays to sign big name players to huge contracts.

[Bellhorn04]

You don't know that for sure. I doubt Machado's off field antics are going to cost him much of anything at all. Its all about his play-and the reluctance of owners nowadays to sign big name players to huge contracts.

 

I don't know it for sure - yet. But I'm comfortable predicting Harper gets at least $30 million more.

[Bellhorn04]

You don't know that for sure. I doubt Machado's off field antics are going to cost him much of anything at all. Its all about his play-and the reluctance of owners nowadays to sign big name players to huge contracts.

 

Just one little clarification, Fred. It's strictly his on field antics we're talking about. Machado's misbehaviors have all been on the field, other than the 'Johnny Hustle' bizarro interview.

[moonslav59]

an opener is intriguing if the opposing team has big time L-R splits. having a Right handed opener which forces the opposing manager to start all of his LH batters and then switching to a LH pitcher that can throw multiple innings in the 2nd inning is an advantage.

 

It doesn't force them to, if they know the switch is coming.

[Bellhorn04]

thats the slasher rule!

 

I think it's perfect.

[harmony]

Interesting read...

 

Chris Sale and Extension Talks

David Price was 30 years old with 31.9 fWAR, 29.2 bWAR, 126 ERA+ and 3.09 ERA in 1,441.2 innings when the Red Sox signed the lefthander to a seven-year, $217 million contract.

 

Lefthander Chris Sale, who turns 30 next month, has posted 41.8 fWAR, 43.1 bWAR, 144 ERA+ and 2.89 ERA in 1,482.1 innings.

 

Perhaps the market has changed but Chris Sale will be expensive.

[moonslav59]

One wonders, depending on what Harper & Machado end up getting, if there will be a rush for extensions based on the thinking FA salaries may decline.

[dgalehouse]

One wonders, depending on what Harper & Machado end up getting, if there will be a rush for extensions based on the thinking FA salaries may decline.

 

I would say that is exactly what the owners are hoping for . Part of their master plan , if you will .

[moonslav59]

I would say that is exactly what the owners are hoping for . Part of their master plan , if you will .

 

Well, if Haper & Machado sign $240/8 to $280/8, I'm not sure that's a sign of a significant decline.

 

There are a few players that made more per year than MLBTR's projected, but many got less years.

[dgalehouse]

Well, if Haper & Machado sign $240/8 to $280/8, I'm not sure that's a sign of a significant decline.

 

There are a few players that made more per year than MLBTR's projected, but many got less years.

It's not just Harper and Machado . There are a ton of free agents out there wondering what is going on .

Edited February 18, 2019 by dgalehouse

[notin]

One wonders, depending on what Harper & Machado end up getting, if there will be a rush for extensions based on the thinking FA salaries may decline.

 

 

Apparently according to a few bloggers out there, it already has Bogaerts re-thinking extensions...

[harmony]

Apparently according to a few bloggers out there, it already has Bogaerts re-thinking extensions...

Including the Boston Globe's Peter Abraham:

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/02/18/here-what-john-henry-and-tom-werner-had-say-about-state-red-sox/66rTg33P7RxM3nX2swbG7N/story.html?event=event12

[notin]

It's not just Harper and Machado . There are a ton of free agents out there wondering what is going on .

 

 

This off-season might also give JD Martinez pause in opting out. Not only has he already been victimized by a slow offseason once, but he will be 32 after the 2019. With 3 years and $62mill remaining, canhe really do better?

 

AJ Pollock, who is only months younger than JD, did get 4 years, but for less money overall....

[moonslav59]

It's not just Harper and Machado . There are a ton of free agents out there wondering what is going on .

 

True, but I think some teams still in on Harper and/or Machado might spend on someone else, if they come up short. That's probably what Kimbrel is hoping for.

[Nick]

David Price was 30 years old with 31.9 fWAR, 29.2 bWAR, 126 ERA+ and 3.09 ERA in 1,441.2 innings when the Red Sox signed the lefthander to a seven-year, $217 million contract.

 

Lefthander Chris Sale, who turns 30 next month, has posted 41.8 fWAR, 43.1 bWAR, 144 ERA+ and 2.89 ERA in 1,482.1 innings.

 

Perhaps the market has changed but Chris Sale will be expensive.

 

I love Sale.

 

Extension 1 $200M, 6 years, straight up

Extension 2 $200M, 6 years, $35M 1-4, $30M 5-6: opt out after year 4. It keeps AAV at $33M. Sale can opt out or if in decline, accept $60M over last two years.

 

There are tons of health concerns, but I love our starting rotation going into 2019. I always thought the team has a fiduciary responsibility not only to fans but to the position players to start a pitcher that can give offense reasonable expectation to win without scoring 6+ runs. I think we have that rotation this year on PAPER.

[BillyWilliams]

Possibly because his ability to play OF seems to be more durable than Machado’s ability to play SS?

 

Also, Harper certainly was more marketable than any MLB player in MLB except Kris Bryant. Harper’s Q score was second highest in MLB recently, ahead of Trout and Betts. There is a reason this guy does more commercials...

 

From what I have been able to find the last Q score for athletes was back in 2016. I wonder how much that has changed?

 

Here's a couple of articles about it:

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/07/11/all-star-game-face-of-baseball-bryce-harper-mike-trout-aaron-judge/466878001/

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/baseballs-dilemma-mike-trout-is-mlbs-ultimate-all-star-and-yet-he-is-not-a-star/2018/07/16/bc17e36c-8490-11e8-8f6c-46cb43e3f306_story.html

[moonslav59]

I love Sale.

 

Extension 1 $200M, 6 years, straight up

Extension 2 $200M, 6 years, $35M 1-4, $30M 5-6: opt out after year 4. It keeps AAV at $33M. Sale can opt out or if in decline, accept $60M over last two years.

 

There are tons of health concerns, but I love our starting rotation going into 2019. I always thought the team has a fiduciary responsibility not only to fans but to the position players to start a pitcher that can give offense reasonable expectation to win without scoring 6+ runs. I think we have that rotation this year on PAPER.

 

I'd prefer a 4 or 5 year deal, but he deserves 6+.

 

The opt out is probably the best way to go.

 

I'm not sure he'll get $33M, especially if he has health issues this year. An extension puts all the risk on the Sox, unless they come up with a "Lackey clause" to counter the opt out

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

1:17pm: Werner and principal owner John Henry met with the Boston media today and indicated that they’ve not only discussed a long-term deal with Sale but also with Xander Bogaerts (link via the Globe’s Peter Abraham). Like Sale, Bogaerts is slated to become a free agent at the end of the 2019 season. The ownership reps noted that while they’d love to be able to keep each of Sale, Bogaerts and Mookie Betts in Red Sox uniform for the long haul, such a scenario probably isn’t realistic.

 

Perhaps of note, when asked about the last top-tier lefty the Sox had on the cusp of free agency, Henry candidly acknowledged that the Red Sox “blew it” when trying to work out an extension with Jon Lester prior to 2014 — Lester’s last in Boston.

[Nick]

MLBTR...

 

1:17pm: Werner and principal owner John Henry met with the Boston media today and indicated that they’ve not only discussed a long-term deal with Sale but also with Xander Bogaerts (link via the Globe’s Peter Abraham). Like Sale, Bogaerts is slated to become a free agent at the end of the 2019 season. The ownership reps noted that while they’d love to be able to keep each of Sale, Bogaerts and Mookie Betts in Red Sox uniform for the long haul, such a scenario probably isn’t realistic.

 

Perhaps of note, when asked about the last top-tier lefty the Sox had on the cusp of free agency, Henry candidly acknowledged that the Red Sox “blew it” when trying to work out an extension with Jon Lester prior to 2014 — Lester’s last in Boston.

 

It’s worth noting that an extension for Sale would push the Red Sox into the top luxury tax penalization bracket. Per Article

 

I disagree. Why not do what we did with Porcello? Sign the extension on April 1, 2019.