A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

Is this like him saying there were no surgeries scheduled?

 

 

Right. And now he’s saying there will be no more surgeries in the bullpen.

 

So go find an operating room!!

[jacksonianmarch]

Is this like him saying there were no surgeries scheduled?

 

The giveaway should have been the fact that he gave that quote from the Mass General OR family waiting room. Where was he when he made today's comment? Craig Kimbrel's driveway?

[moonslav59]

the giveaway should have been the fact that he gave that quote from the mass general or family waiting room. Where was he when he made today's comment? Craig kimbrel's driveway?

 

lol

[iortiz]

The 2018 Red Sox will repeat next year weather you like it or not jacko, that’s the bottom line of this thread my friend

[moonslav59]

The 2018 Red Sox will repeat next year weather you like it or not jacko, that’s the bottom line of this thread my friend

 

That's as realistic as anyone can be.

 

[iortiz]

That's as realistic as anyone can be.

 

 

You betcha, pal!

[jacksonianmarch]

The 2018 Red Sox will repeat next year weather you like it or not jacko, that’s the bottom line of this thread my friend

 

To this point your team has not improved, you've dropped. To this point the Yanks have improved a fair amount. We are coming for you

[Bellhorn04]

To this point your team has not improved, you've dropped. To this point the Yanks have improved a fair amount. We are coming for you

 

We haven't dropped much. We've lost Kimbrel and Kelly, that's it. We've added 4 months each of Eovaldi and Pearce. Our bullpen is a question mark, I'll readily admit that. But that's the only issue.

[moonslav59]

To this point your team has not improved, you've dropped. To this point the Yanks have improved a fair amount. We are coming for you

We've added Eovaldi and Pearce for a full season and have Thornburg & Pedey returning from total lost seasons (maybe).

 

Losing Kelly was not huge, and Kimbrel dropped off a lot from 2017. There's a chance the additions I mentioned offset or surpass the loos of Kimbrel, but "not improving" is a fair opinion.

 

The Yanks made some gains, for sure, but not having Didi and other questions still linger.

 

It won't be a cakewalk for sure, but I still think we have a slight edge- on paper.

[jacksonianmarch]

You have a slight edge until the 7th inning every game

[moonslav59]

You have a slight edge until the 7th inning every game

 

Does a slight edge over 6 innings outweigh a deficit over 3 innings?

 

We'll find out.

 

I think the odds-makers will give us the edge on opening day.

[notin]

To this point your team has not improved, you've dropped. To this point the Yanks have improved a fair amount. We are coming for you

 

 

Still January...

[Bellhorn04]

Still January...

 

Only for a few more hours.

[notin]

Only for a few more hours.

 

 

So? His post is already in the past.

 

One year ago on this date, the biggest addition the Sox had made to their team was to bring back Mitch Moreland...

[moonslav59]

So? His post is already in the past.

 

One year ago on this date, the biggest addition the Sox had made to their team was to bring back Mitch Moreland...

 

We've already done more than that.

[BillyWilliams]

It's hard to build comfort levels with RP'ers you catch only for a few batters scattered over a season. The Sox use personal caddies for most of their starters, so there is ample time to build a relationship.

 

Nonsense, they've been catching them since spring training not to mention all the bullpen sessions as the year goes on.

[notin]

Nonsense, they've been catching them since spring training not to mention all the bullpen sessions as the year goes on.

 

The Red Sox used 18 different relief pitchers last year. Sure they had a comfort level with some, but let’s not pretend it was equal for all of them...

[Bellhorn04]

Plus it's a whole different deal with starters where you're facing hitters more than once and strategizing based on the previous at-bat etc.

[dgalehouse]

If you only give the catcher credit for success with some pitchers and don't give any criticism for the lack of success with others , you are being less than objective . Of course , objectivity is rapidly becoming a lost art .

[moonslav59]

Nonsense, they've been catching them since spring training not to mention all the bullpen sessions as the year goes on.

 

Not as much as a starter you catch and only catch all season long.

 

Plus, Leon and Vaz do better with most RP'ers than Swihart does. It's just not as stark.

[moonslav59]

If you only give the catcher credit for success with some pitchers and don't give any criticism for the lack of success with others , you are being less than objective . Of course , objectivity is rapidly becoming a lost art .

 

I criticize catchers that do badly with certain pitchers all the time.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox used 18 different relief pitchers last year. Sure they had a comfort level with some, but let’s not pretend it was equal for all of them...

 

There are different levels of comfort and discomfort.

 

I didn't think it needed to be said.

Edited January 31, 2019 by moonslav59

[BillyWilliams]

The Red Sox used 18 different relief pitchers last year. Sure they had a comfort level with some, but let’s not pretend it was equal for all of them...

 

Nobody claimed it was equal for all.

[BillyWilliams]

Not as much as a starter you catch and only catch all season long.

 

Plus, Leon and Vaz do better with most RP'ers than Swihart does. It's just not as stark.

 

Of course not as much as the starters. But some relievers they have caught for more than 1 season.

 

And one would think since they are such superior catchers that they would be able to gain that comfort level at a faster rate than mere mortals..........

[Bellhorn04]

Of course not as much as the starters. But some relievers they have caught for more than 1 season.

 

And one would think since they are such superior catchers that they would be able to gain that comfort level at a faster rate than mere mortals..........

 

I'll just copy Kimmi's post from yesterday, including her editorial comments at the end:

 

Baseball Prospectus ranks catchers defensively by framing runs, fielding runs, blocking runs, caught stealing runs, stealing runs, and throwing runs. Out of 117 ranked catchers in 2018, Leon ranked 7th and Vazquez ranked 14th. Swihart ranked 38th, which is not bad out of 117.

 

As a team, Boston catchers ranked 3rd out of the 30 teams.

 

Those are based on the measurable stats. I think Leon and Vazquez would rank even better when you factor in the intangibles.

[moonslav59]

Of course not as much as the starters. But some relievers they have caught for more than 1 season.

 

And one would think since they are such superior catchers that they would be able to gain that comfort level at a faster rate than mere mortals..........

 

Yes, and I posted RP'er numbers.

 

I don't want Leon catching Porcello.

 

I don't want Vaz catching Sale & Price.

 

Do I have to specifically come out and bash them for anyone to see it is a form of criticism on Vaz & Swihart when I say I want only Leon to catch Sale & price?

[BillyWilliams]

I'll just copy Kimmi's post from yesterday, including her editorial comments at the end:

 

Baseball Prospectus ranks catchers defensively by framing runs, fielding runs, blocking runs, caught stealing runs, stealing runs, and throwing runs. Out of 117 ranked catchers in 2018, Leon ranked 7th and Vazquez ranked 14th. Swihart ranked 38th, which is not bad out of 117.

 

As a team, Boston catchers ranked 3rd out of the 30 teams.

 

Those are based on the measurable stats. I think Leon and Vazquez would rank even better when you factor in the intangibles.

 

So again I ask, why are they not able to get better performances out of the pen?

 

Or would those same relievers have a 5+ or 6+ ERA if they were pitching to mere mortal catchers?

[moonslav59]

So again I ask, why are they not able to get better performances out of the pen?

 

Or would those same relievers have a 5+ or 6+ ERA if they were pitching to mere mortal catchers?

 

By and large, they do get better performances, but many sample sizes are very small.

 

To get a RP'ers PAs sample size large enough, you have to go career, and maybe one catcher caught the guy more his rookie year, when he sucked. Here's Barnes...

 

OPS against/ERA (PAs)

Barnes

.643/3.72 with Vaz (363)

.676/3.80 with Leon (303)

.861/5.02 Swihart (169)

 

and Hembree

.740/3.52 Leon (365)

.843/4.20 Vaz (329)

.579/1.82 Swihart (97) Is this sample size big enough?

 

Kimbrel

.495/1.95 Vaz (332)

.499/1.95 Leon (306)

.813/16.62 Swi (25 is certainly not enough)

 

These are our 3 most used RP'ers over the last 3 years.

 

Am I missing something>?

 

[dgalehouse]

People have opinions. They tend to have their favorite players and their , shall we say , not so favorite players . Sometimes this is based on results. Sometimes it is based on personalities. Regrettably, sometimes it is based on our ( perhaps subconscious) biases . The great thing about baseball today is that we have a million different stats . Many of them relatively new and often with some subjectivity involved. One can usually find a stat that supports their opinion . In the end , it helps make discussion boards like this interesting.

[dgalehouse]

By and large, they do get better performances, but many sample sizes are very small.

 

To get a RP'ers PAs sample size large enough, you have to go career, and maybe one catcher caught the guy more his rookie year, when he sucked. Here's Barnes...

 

OPS against/ERA (PAs)

Barnes

.643/3.72 with Vaz (363)

.676/3.80 with Leon (303)

.861/5.02 Swihart (169)

 

and Hembree

.740/3.52 Leon (365)

.843/4.20 Vaz (329)

.579/1.82 Swihart (97) Is this sample size big enough?

 

Kimbrel

.495/1.95 Vaz (332)

.499/1.95 Leon (306)

.813/16.62 Swi (25 is certainly not enough)

 

These are our 3 most used RP'ers over the last 3 years.

 

Am I missing something>?

 

You can make the argument that the catchers are not as familiar with the relievers as they are with the starters .Okay . But you could then say that Swihart is not that familiar with anyone on the staff unless he caught them a lot in the minors . So , it goes both ways .