A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Kimmi]

Would you be shocked if he traded more prospects for a low-cost solid closer, instead?

 

It depends on who the closer and the prospects are. I would be less shocked, for sure.

[Kimmi]

I found this tweet interesting. While Betts was more aggressive last year, he is apparently still letting too many good pitches go by.

 

@redsoxstats

 

Strong feeling there is a big recommitment to hitter aggressiveness on pitches over the middle coming in spring training. Even in steamrolling, passiveness crept in. It's the next big next step in the JDM to Betts tutelage for sure. Betts went from 57% to 61%, still 324th/336.

[moonslav59]

Just signed... shortstop Xander Bogaerts ($12MM) and outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. ($8.55MM) have agreed to big salaries.

[notin]

It depends on who the closer and the prospects are. I would be less shocked, for sure.

 

At this point I’m shocked that it’s January 10 and the most significant addition to the Red Sox is some guy named Colten Brewer...

[moonslav59]

At this point I’m shocked that it’s January 10 and the most significant addition to the Red Sox is some guy named Colten Brewer...

 

Well. we now have Eovaldi & Pearce for a full year.

[moonslav59]

I found this tweet interesting. While Betts was more aggressive last year, he is apparently still letting too many good pitches go by.

 

@redsoxstats

 

Strong feeling there is a big recommitment to hitter aggressiveness on pitches over the middle coming in spring training. Even in steamrolling, passiveness crept in. It's the next big next step in the JDM to Betts tutelage for sure. Betts went from 57% to 61%, still 324th/336.

 

I'm not sure if messing with Betts in any way is a good thing.

[moonslav59]

We don't know for sure, if we are trying hard to stay under the $40M line or not. Assuming we are, is there any other teams out there that might trade for...

 

$6.5M Moreland

 

$5M Nunez

 

$4.5M Vaz

 

$3.6M Holt

 

($20.6M Porcello)?

 

The idea is not to get anything worthwhile in return but to clear up budget space to sign or trade for a more pricey RP'er. We could also pitch in some of the contract money owed, if the savings gave us enough space to greatly improve our pen.

 

I realize Moreland and Nunez are probably not highly sought after, but maybe some team might take one plus $2-3M.

 

Would losing Holt or Vaz be too much of a loss to make improving the pen worth it?

 

I know losing Porcello would have to mean we get something in return plus the budget space to maybe sign 2 guys,

 

Any ideas?

 

I don't think I trust Leon to be a 120+ game catcher or Swihart to catch 40+ games.

 

With Pedey's health always in question, is leaving 2B and back up IF to Nunez, Lin & Hernandez by trading Holt an option?

 

I'm not seeing an easy way to improve the pen without going over the $40M line.

 

We can take a baby step by maybe trading Swihart, Chavis and another prospect for a low cost RP'er and then save the $5M for a summer trade, but some here think that is way to risky for a team as good as we are everywhere else but the pen.

 

Edited January 13, 2019 by moonslav59

[Larry Cook]

So mlb network has their top 10 right now.

 

It appears that we while we won 108 games last year, we will not have anybody on the lists for 1st, 2nd, 3rd and catcher!

 

Kind of amazing

[Nick]

We don't know for sure, if we are trying hard to stay under the $40M line or not. Assuming we are, is there any other teams out there that might trade for...

 

$6.5M Moreland

 

$5M Nunez

 

$4.5M Vaz

 

$4.5M Holt

 

($20.6M Porcello)?

 

The idea is not to get anything worthwhile in return but to clear up budget space to sign or trade for a more pricey RP'er. We could also pitch in some of the contract money owed, if the savings gave us enough space to greatly improve our pen.

 

I realize Moreland and Nunez are probably not highly sought after, but maybe some team might take one plus $2-3M.

 

Would losing Holt or Vaz be too much of a loss to make improving the pen worth it?

 

I know losing Porcello would have to mean we get something in return plus the budget space to maybe sign 2 guys,

 

Any ideas?

 

I don't think I trust Leon to be a 120+ game catcher or Swihart to catch 40+ games.

 

With Pedey's health always in question, is leaving 2B and back up IF to Nunez, Lin & Hernandez by trading Holt an option?

 

I'm not seeing an easy way to improve the pen without going over the $40M line.

 

We can take a baby step by maybe trading Swihart, Chavis and another prospect for a low cost RP'er and then save the $5M for a summer trade, but some here think that is way to risky for a team as good as we are everywhere else but the pen.

 

 

I don't want any holes open up to plug another.

 

Everyone here wants rotation depth. Yet they argued against signing Eovaldi. Why would Sox trade Porcello, the workhorse of our staff?

 

I would rather go with Brasier/Barnes closing than to start to blowing up this team.

 

Make a move at trade deadline.

 

I also don't want to trade away Chavis. We can't give up on a potential regular starter with power for a bullpen help.

[Kimmi]

At this point I’m shocked that it’s January 10 and the most significant addition to the Red Sox is some guy named Colten Brewer...

 

That points to the fact that we really don't have any needs.

[Kimmi]

I'm not sure if messing with Betts in any way is a good thing.

 

I would agree. But what if Betts could be even better? Yikes!

 

I trust that the Red Sox and Mookie know what they're doing.

[Kimmi]

So mlb network has their top 10 right now.

 

It appears that we while we won 108 games last year, we will not have anybody on the lists for 1st, 2nd, 3rd and catcher!

 

Kind of amazing

 

It goes to show that you don't need to have a superstar at every position.

[Kimmi]

I don't want any holes open up to plug another.

 

Everyone here wants rotation depth. Yet they argued against signing Eovaldi. Why would Sox trade Porcello, the workhorse of our staff?

 

I would rather go with Brasier/Barnes closing than to start to blowing up this team.

 

Make a move at trade deadline.

 

I also don't want to trade away Chavis. We can't give up on a potential regular starter with power for a bullpen help.

 

I agree with this. I don't want to create any holes trying to plug another, especially when the only hole we have, if you can even call it that, is the bullpen. If the season started today, I'd be good to go with the team as it is.

 

I am 100% against trading Porcello for just about any reason. I would have to be blown away by the reasoning behind trading him.

 

I think Eovaldi's contract is too long, but IMO, re-signing him or another comparable pitcher was our #1 priority this offseason.

 

So far this offseason, Dombrowski has done a commendable job.

[jacksonianmarch]

By my count, the Sox spent $1.4 mil more on arb cases than the projection which is almost entirely based on Betts ($1.3 mil over). Just an FYI

[Bellhorn04]

By my count, the Sox spent $1.4 mil more on arb cases than the projection which is almost entirely based on Betts ($1.3 mil over). Just an FYI

 

Also worth noting that the Yankees are now projected to be over the first threshold by about 5 mill without any further additions.

[jacksonianmarch]

Also worth noting that the Yankees are now projected to be over the first threshold by about 5 mill without any further additions.

 

To be expected

[Bellhorn04]

To be expected

 

But the fact you did it without adding Harper or Machado? And you might still be signing Ottavino or another reliever.

[notin]

I don't want any holes open up to plug another.

 

Everyone here wants rotation depth. Yet they argued against signing Eovaldi. Why would Sox trade Porcello, the workhorse of our staff?

 

I would rather go with Brasier/Barnes closing than to start to blowing up this team.

 

Make a move at trade deadline.

 

I also don't want to trade away Chavis. We can't give up on a potential regular starter with power for a bullpen help.

 

 

Chavis is pure trade bait.

 

He has no real position. He’s not much for third and the Sox have Devers and Salbec anyway. He could play first, but the Sox still have Dalbec/Devers for corner IF. LF? Possible but the Sox are allegedly looking to extend Benintendi. RF? He could never handle it at Fenway.

 

That leaves DH. Which is not the most difficult position to fill and probably one best not left to a rookie. With most rookie players, offense at the MLB level can be slow developing and unknown, but if they can play their position you can give them time. But do you want a slow developing unknown bat at DH?

 

Trade Chavis for a controllable quality reliever...

[harmony]

Originally Posted by notin

Per rotoworld, the Giants plan on making reliever Will Smith available once the closer market thins out.

 

Smith is a relief stud. If the Sox can score Smith (for Dalbec and Hernandez?) and sign, say, Kelvin Herrera, how would that make people feel about this bullpen?

How do Bobby Dalbec and Darwinzon Hernandez land a "relief stud"?

 

The same way Andrew Moore and Tommy Romero did?

 

Smith has been worth 4.1 fWAR over the past 3 seasons, the exact same amount Alex Colome was worth in the three seasons prior to his trade to Seattle. The difference is Smith, unlike Colome, has only one year left on his current contract...

FanGraphs managing editor Jeff Sullivan suggests that Will Smith may have more trade value than Madison Bumgarner:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/somebody-go-get-will-smith/

Edited January 12, 2019 by harmony

[dgalehouse]

FanGraphs managing editor Jeff Sullivan suggests that Will Smith may have more trade value than Madison Bumgarner:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/somebody-go-get-will-smith/

 

The Cooler .

[moonslav59]

I would agree. But what if Betts could be even better? Yikes!

 

I trust that the Red Sox and Mookie know what they're doing.

 

It does frustrate me to watch Betts take the best pitches so often, but he ends up getting a hit or walk on other pitches. Yes, I do think he can get better, and this stat is one big reason why.

[moonslav59]

I don't want any holes open up to plug another.

 

Everyone here wants rotation depth. Yet they argued against signing Eovaldi. Why would Sox trade Porcello, the workhorse of our staff?

 

I would rather go with Brasier/Barnes closing than to start to blowing up this team.

 

Make a move at trade deadline.

 

I also don't want to trade away Chavis. We can't give up on a potential regular starter with power for a bullpen help.

 

I don't want to trade Porcello either, and this may be the first winter I'm not suggesting we trade Holt.

 

My post was more about how it looks near impossible to stay under the $40M line, boost the pen in a big way AND not create a new hole.

 

Even assuming someone would take all or most of the contracts of Moreland or Nunez, I'm not sure we afford to go without them. We could hope Chavis, Dalbec or Swihart could replace Moreland, but that's a stretch. By trading Nunez, we'd be pinning a lot of hope on Pedey.

[moonslav59]

Chavis is pure trade bait.

 

He has no real position. He’s not much for third and the Sox have Devers and Salbec anyway. He could play first, but the Sox still have Dalbec/Devers for corner IF. LF? Possible but the Sox are allegedly looking to extend Benintendi. RF? He could never handle it at Fenway.

 

That leaves DH. Which is not the most difficult position to fill and probably one best not left to a rookie. With most rookie players, offense at the MLB level can be slow developing and unknown, but if they can play their position you can give them time. But do you want a slow developing unknown bat at DH?

 

Trade Chavis for a controllable quality reliever...

 

I'd even add sidepieces, if necessary to try and land the best cost-controlled RP'er we can get on the current trade market.

[oldtimer]

I don't want to trade Porcello either, and this may be the first winter I'm not suggesting we trade Holt.

 

My post was more about how it looks near impossible to stay under the $40M line, boost the pen in a big way AND not create a new hole.

 

Even assuming someone would take all or most of the contracts of Moreland or Nunez, I'm not sure we afford to go without them. We could hope Chavis, Dalbec or Swihart could replace Moreland, but that's a stretch. By trading Nunez, we'd be pinning a lot of hope on Pedey.

 

What nif Pedey's health doesn't allow him to play or make the roster. Does that free up his $13 million?

[Nick]

I'd even add sidepieces, if necessary to try and land the best cost-controlled RP'er we can get on the current trade market.

 

Not directed at you.

 

But we want it both ways. Build the farm, trade away the farm.

 

Michael Chavis is ranked #1 in Sox Prospect List.

 

And he has no future as a major leaguer in Boston? I guess our farm is worse than I thought.

[moonslav59]

What nif Pedey's health doesn't allow him to play or make the roster. Does that free up his $13 million?

 

No, unless he retires, like Dempster did, and gives up the remainder of his contract.

 

Not happening.

 

I wonder, if there is a way to restructure his deal by having him retire and then give him the $40+M we still owe him in a lifetime personal services contract at $2M x 25 years.

 

He get's $10M more than he'll get now.

 

We get tax relief and 25 years of his services as a coach or team rep.

 

[Bellhorn04]

It does frustrate me to watch Betts take the best pitches so often, but he ends up getting a hit or walk on other pitches. Yes, I do think he can get better, and this stat is one big reason why.

 

Personally I think expecting him to improve on 346/438/640 is dreamtime.

[moonslav59]

Personally I think expecting him to improve on 346/438/640 is dreamtime.

 

I never said I expect it, but I do think there's a good chance he has a better year at some point in the next few years.

 

(Plus, he wasn't even healthy all year, so if he just gives near what he did in 2018, but over a full year, we could see more impact in 2019.

[moonslav59]

Not directed at you.

 

But we want it both ways. Build the farm, trade away the farm.

 

Michael Chavis is ranked #1 in Sox Prospect List.

 

And he has no future as a major leaguer in Boston? I guess our farm is worse than I thought.

 

I don't consider Chavis a key, low-cost piece to the future of our team, despite our need for a 1Bman after this year.

 

I'm not for trading Casas, Groome, Mata, Flores and many other long shot prospects we currently have.

[notin]

FanGraphs managing editor Jeff Sullivan suggests that Will Smith may have more trade value than Madison Bumgarner:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/somebody-go-get-will-smith/

 

 

How much value does one year of Madison Bumgarner and his 240 IP in the last two seasons combined have?