A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[sk7326]

Based on how he looked last year I can't see DD counting on him for much. You mentioned him as a non-tender candidate.

 

DD will almost certainly acquire an established late-inning guy or two, no?

 

I think so - Zach Britton looks really interesting if he's healthy. He had a 78% groundball rate in his Yankees tour. If he was healthy Herrera would have been the best reliever in this crop, so certainly worth checking him out.

[notin]

Based on how he looked last year I can't see DD counting on him for much. You mentioned him as a non-tender candidate.

 

DD will almost certainly acquire an established late-inning guy or two, no?

 

 

Technically, MLBTR mentioned him as a non-tender candidate. That he wasn't let go when Carson Smith was shows DD has some faith in him, although we will see when arb offers go out.

 

By no means is he a lock for closer, but until a better name enters the picture, he is definitely in the running. I mean, I bet I can find people who want to hand the role to Ryan Brasier...

[moonslav59]

If we don't add a closer, I'll be surprised, but DD may acquire two solid set-up men to add to the mix fighting for (or sharing) the closer role.

 

We got Uehara this way.

[notin]

If we don't add a closer, I'll be surprised, but DD may acquire two solid set-up men to add to the mix fighting for (or sharing) the closer role.

 

We got Uehara this way.

 

Didn’t the Sox sign Uehara after trading for two experienced closers in Hanrahan and Bailey?

[moonslav59]

Didn’t the Sox sign Uehara after trading for two experienced closers in Hanrahan and Bailey?

 

Yes, the O's traded him, and Ben signed him that winter.

[sk7326]

If we don't add a closer, I'll be surprised, but DD may acquire two solid set-up men to add to the mix fighting for (or sharing) the closer role.

 

We got Uehara this way.

 

There are enough interesting options that Dombrowski will add. The Sox will be in the market for a starter too - though what that means I don't know.

 

And I do think it is worthwhile to see if there is a 2010 Beltre-esque sort of deal that Josh Donaldson would agree to.

[notin]

There are enough interesting options that Dombrowski will add. The Sox will be in the market for a starter too - though what that means I don't know.

 

And I do think it is worthwhile to see if there is a 2010 Beltre-esque sort of deal that Josh Donaldson would agree to.

 

Like a one year $15mill offer with a $1mill player option for an AAV of $8mill? Is that still allowed under the new CBA?

[sk7326]

Like a one year $15mill offer with a $1mill player option for an AAV of $8mill? Is that still allowed under the new CBA?

 

Something like that - where one of the league's better bats can restore his value. He also would fill a useful spot for us (1B/3B).

[moonslav59]

Something like that - where one of the league's better bats can restore his value. He also would fill a useful spot for us (1B/3B).

 

Who is moving to 1B?

 

Devers? For just one year of Donaldson?

 

Pearce makes the most sense, if we go that route.

 

Kikuchi would give us a low AVV and possibly 5-6 years, but he's a lefty.

 

For RP'ers that could be a closer and won't cost as much as Kimbrel:

 

Familia

Ottavino

Herrera

Cody Allen (might take a 1 year deal)

 

I'd stay away from Britton, Robertson and maybe Miller (health?)

 

[notin]

Who is moving to 1B?

 

Devers? For just one year of Donaldson?

 

 

 

 

Well, one year of Donaldson and then 6 years of Dalbec...

[sk7326]

Who is moving to 1B?

 

Devers? For just one year of Donaldson?

 

Pearce makes the most sense, if we go that route.

 

Kikuchi would give us a low AVV and possibly 5-6 years, but he's a lefty.

 

For RP'ers that could be a closer and won't cost as much as Kimbrel:

 

Familia

Ottavino

Herrera

Cody Allen (might take a 1 year deal)

 

I'd stay away from Britton, Robertson and maybe Miller (health?)

 

 

Who's moving to 1B? ... Donaldson. This ain't Beltre who was still a great 3B who needed to restore some counting stats so he could make money. It's an injured guy who is past his prime but can stiill hit.

 

Britton, if healthy is an obvious "sure why not" choice. He is such an absurd ground ball pitcher that his floor is extremely high. If it wasn't for the Lisfranc, Herrera would be the best reliever on the market.

Edited November 16, 2018 by sk7326

[moonslav59]

Who's moving to 1B? ... Donaldson. This ain't Beltre who was still a great 3B who needed to restore some counting stats so he could make money. It's an injured guy who is past his prime but can stiill hit.

 

 

He's still better (eyes closed) than Devers at 3B.

[moonslav59]

Britton, if healthy is an obvious "sure why not" choice. He is such an absurd ground ball pitcher that his floor is extremely high. If it wasn't for the Lisfranc, Herrera would be the best reliever on the market.

 

I was glad the Yanks got him at the deadline.

 

He'll still be too costly for my liking.

 

If he'll take a one year deal, I'm listening.

[sk7326]

I was glad the Yanks got him at the deadline.

 

He'll still be too costly for my liking.

 

If he'll take a one year deal, I'm listening.

 

once he went to NYY he had a 78% ground ball rate. Just a matter of being healthy - who doesn't want that.

[moonslav59]

once he went to NYY he had a 78% ground ball rate. Just a matter of being healthy - who doesn't want that.

 

He's had some great numbers, but his BB/9 scares me, and I'm not sure about a lefty closer in Fenway.

 

The GB rate is nice, but he's K'ing way less (than 2015-16) and may be in the process of reinventing himself and a non-K guy.

[Bellhorn04]

So much for the JDM to first base chatter.

[moonslav59]

So much for the JDM to first base chatter.

 

Not so fast!

 

Trade Moreland!

 

(LOL)

[moonslav59]

Updated for Pearce signing (and Smith FDA)...

 

Here's how 2019 looks with MLBTR's arb estimates included:

 

In Luxury Tax Dollars

31.1 David Price

22.0 JD Martinez

20.1 Rick Porcello

18.7 Mookie Betts

13.8 Dustin Pedroia

13.5M Chris Sale

11.9 Xander Bogaerts

7.9 Jackie Bradley Jr.

6.5 Mitch Moreland

6.3 Steve Pearce

5.0 Eduardo Nunez (with PA bonus reached)

4.8 Eduardo Rodriguez

4.5 Christian Vazquez

3.4 Brock Holt

2.3 Tyler Thornburg

2.3 Sandy Leon

1.5 Matt Barnes

1.4 Brandon Workman

1.4 Steven Wright

1.2 Heath Hembree

1.1 Blake Swihart

 

$177M Total (21 players)

 

$2.2M Min for 4 MLB roster players

 

$2.2M 15 players in minor leagues on 40 man roster

 

$14.5M Player Benefits

 

$18.5M Sandoval

 

$214M Total

 

 

Edited November 17, 2018 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

We're already over the limit LOL And that's with Hanley off the books. Man those dollars add up in a hurry.

[Bellhorn04]

Carson Smith is a goner isn't he?

[Emp9]

DD can sign me. I’ll follow the team around with a boombox blasting New York, New York and California Love throughout the entire season. Gonna cost him tho and I want multiple years.

[Emp9]

Carson Smith is a goner isn't he?

 

Yup

[Bellhorn04]

DD can sign me. I’ll follow the team around with a boombox blasting New York, New York and California Love throughout the entire season. Gonna cost him tho and I want multiple years.

 

You have serious durability issues. You don't seem to be able to stay on the Talksox field.

[moonslav59]

Carson Smith is a goner isn't he?

 

Yes, I went back and adjusted $1M off the books.

[moonslav59]

My choice (likely not Cora's)

vs RHPs

1. Betts RF

2. Beni LF

3. Bogey SS

4. JD DH

5. Devers 3B

6. Moreland 1B

7. Nunez/Holt/Pedey 2B

8. JBJ CF

9. Vaz/Leon C

 

vs LHPs

1. Betts RF

2. Beni LF

3. Pearce 1B

4. JD DH

5. Bogey SS

6. Devers 3B

7. Nunez/Holt/Devers 2B

8. Vaz/Leon C

9. JBJ CF

 

13th everyday player: Swihart or Lin (Quiroz/Hernandez/Chavis/Ockimey/Travis)

 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2018 by moonslav59

[sk7326]

My choice (likely not Cora's)

vs RHPs

1. Betts RF

2. Beni LF

3. Pearce 1B

4. JD DH

5. Bogey SS

6. Devers 3B

7. Nunez/Holt/Pedey 2B

8. JBJ CF

9. Vaz/Leon C

 

vs LHPs

1. Betts RF

2. Beni LF

3. Bogey SS

4. JD DH

5. Moreland 1B

6. Devers 3B

7. Nunez/Holt/Devers 2B

8. Vaz/Leon C

9. JBJ CF

 

13th everyday player: Swihart or Lin (Quiroz/Hernandez/Chavis/Ockimey/Travis)

 

 

 

 

So - you want Moreland batting against lefties?

[moonslav59]

Final 2018 Splits

 

vs RHPs (100+ PAs unless noted)

1.051 JD

1.037 Betts

.923 Lin (56)

.901 Bogey

.877 Beni

.825 Pearce (37)

.788 Holt

.780 Moreland

.768 JBJ

.748 Swihart

.691 Nunez

.527 Leon

.518 Vaz

 

vs LHPs (60+ PAs unless noted)

1.207 Betts

1.018 Pearce

.966 JD

.809 Bogey

.718 Holt

.694 Beni

.684 Moreland

.641 Nunez

.619 Devers

.603 Vaz

.562 JBJ

.466 Leon

.319 Swihart

.180 Lin (17)

 

You can see why Pearce looks so important. he was one of only 4 Sox hitters over .718 vs LHPs.

[moonslav59]

So - you want Moreland batting against lefties?

 

Oops, fixed it.

[oldtimer]

Updated for Pearce signing (and Smith FDA)...

 

Here's how 2019 looks with MLBTR's arb estimates included:

 

In Luxury Tax Dollars

31.1 David Price

22.0 JD Martinez

20.1 Rick Porcello

18.7 Mookie Betts

13.8 Dustin Pedroia

13.5M Chris Sale

11.9 Xander Bogaerts

7.9 Jackie Bradley Jr.

6.5 Mitch Moreland

6.3 Steve Pearce

5.0 Eduardo Nunez (with PA bonus reached)

4.8 Eduardo Rodriguez

4.5 Christian Vazquez

3.4 Brock Holt

2.3 Tyler Thornburg

2.3 Sandy Leon

1.5 Matt Barnes

1.4 Brandon Workman

1.4 Steven Wright

1.2 Heath Hembree

1.1 Blake Swihart

 

$177M Total (21 players)

 

$2.2M Min for 4 MLB roster players

 

$2.2M 15 players in minor leagues on 40 man roster

 

$14.5M Player Benefits

 

$18.5M Sandoval

 

$214M Total

 

 

 

With 9 field players including a DH and 2 catchers a given, we now have 3 utility players so either Swihart or Leon will not be with us next season. You can eliminate one salary there. I also only see 10 pitchers on your list with a potential for a starter and reliever. How much might they add? Could be $20 Mil between them to reach the high 230 million region. Even with that said, we still have uncertainty with Pedroia. His viability in 2019 is still a legitimate question. Could we wind up with Sandoval's and Pedroia's contracts for $32 mil being unproductive? Sure looks like a possibility.

[kenmeister]

Even with that said, we still have uncertainty with Pedroia. His viability in 2019 is still a legitimate question. Could we wind up with Sandoval's and Pedroia's contracts for $32 mil being unproductive? Sure looks like a possibility.

 

I *so* want one more .300 season out of Pedroia.