A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

I think you're right and the article is wrong.

 

I think so, too.

[Slasher9]

Joe Kelly for 2019 closer.

 

Get it done, Dave!

 

IN!

oh, and I love you.

[notin]

Joe Kelly for 2019 closer.

 

Get it done, Dave!

 

I’d like Kelly back, but his walk issues in the closer role concern me.

 

And we all love Kimmi ;)1

[moonslav59]

Many of us didn't even want Kelly on the playoff roster. Now, some are wanting him as our new closer.

 

How tiny sample sizes can change opinions never ceases to amaze me.

 

(Also, Vaz is now apparently viewed as our FT catcher for 2019 and his hitting woes are behind him.)

[Slasher9]

Many of us didn't even want Kelly on the playoff roster. Now, some are wanting him as our new closer.

 

How tiny sample sizes can change opinions never ceases to amaze me.

 

(Also, Vaz is now apparently viewed as our FT catcher for 2019 and his hitting woes are behind him.)

 

some of us have wanted Kelly as the closer for 2019 even before this 2018 season started. so theres that......

[cp176]

some of us have wanted Kelly as the closer for 2019 even before this 2018 season started. so theres that......

 

All you would have to do would be to life-size posters of Price,Sale, Porcello, and E-Rod out there in the bullpen and Kelly would definitely get the job done! lol

[notin]

If Thornburg is offered arbitration (which looks likely), then the Sox could already have 11 pitchers under control for 2019, leaving them only needing one more. This is assuming no one is traded, released or optioned (only ERod and Brasier have options).

 

There may not be room to bring back Kelly.

 

Although I would suspect Johnson and Workman are at risk to be dealt or DFAd...

Edited November 5, 2018 by notin

[moonslav59]

some of us have wanted Kelly as the closer for 2019 even before this 2018 season started. so theres that......

 

I get that, and notice I said "some of us..."

 

I was one who did not want him on the PO roster, and I'd be okay with us signing him to fight for the closer job with Brasier & Barnes (and longshot Thornburg).

 

I would not anoint him the closer upon re-signing, however.

[harmony]

I’d like Kelly back, but his walk issues in the closer role concern me.

 

And we all love Kimmi ;)1

This forum's one consensus.

[notin]

Many of us didn't even want Kelly on the playoff roster. Now, some are wanting him as our new closer.

 

How tiny sample sizes can change opinions never ceases to amaze me.

 

(Also, Vaz is now apparently viewed as our FT catcher for 2019 and his hitting woes are behind him.)

 

It’s the perfect follow up to not wanting him on the postseason roster based upon a small sample size...

[moonslav59]

It’s the perfect follow up to not wanting him on the postseason roster based upon a small sample size...

 

Right you are, but there were several small sample sizes of struggles over the 2018 season-- too many for some of our likings.

 

Yes, you called him being on the PO roster. You nailed it.

[dgalehouse]

I wanted Kelly on the post season roster. I thought he was clearly preferable to the alternatives. As it turned out, he did a terrific job. But as far as making him the closer ; be careful here. In five years with the Sox , he has an overall ERA of 4.33. Last year was 4.39 . Is that the real Joe Kelly , or is the handful of playoff games this year the real Joe Kelly ?

[S5Dewey]

Kelly has the stuff to be a closer but can't seem to be able to control it reliably. If he can get his head and his stuff on the same page at the same time he could be formidable.

 

If we're going to go into December without a closer (and it looks like we're going to) I'd like to see Kelley's name on the 25 with a solid chance to be finishing games in 2019.

[moonslav59]

Kelly has the stuff to be a closer but can't seem to be able to control it reliably. If he can get his head and his stuff on the same page at the same time he could be formidable.

 

If we're going to go into December without a closer (and it looks like we're going to) I'd like to see Kelley's name on the 25 with a solid chance to be finishing games in 2019.

 

I could see us signing Kelly, Ottavino or Familia and also someone like Cody Allen or Herrera, assuming we don't spend too much on a SP'er.

[notin]

P

I could see us signing Kelly, Ottavino or Familia and also someone like Cody Allen or Herrera, assuming we don't spend too much on a SP'er.

 

Think the Sox add 3 pitchers? They have 11 currently under control and the only two with options are not so desirable to option. In order to fit 3 pitchers on the roster, who would you expect to go?

[Dojji]

Joe Kelly for 2019 closer.

 

Get it done, Dave!

 

Joe Kelly for 2019 setup man. Honestly there's other guys I'd trust more to handle the pressure of closing for a full season.

 

Not to mention the fact that Kimbrel is an order of magnitude better as a closer than anyone we could promote internally. Don't believe me, take a look at his numbers. He was a stud this year.

Edited November 5, 2018 by Dojji

[harmony]

Joe Kelly for 2019 setup man. Honestly there's other guys I'd trust more to handle the pressure of closing for a full season.

 

Not to mention the fact that Kimbrel is an order of magnitude better as a closer than anyone we could promote internally. Don't believe me, take a look at his numbers. He was a stud this year.

This year Craig Kimbrel ranked 22nd among all relievers in fWAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[moonslav59]

P

 

Think the Sox add 3 pitchers? They have 11 currently under control and the only two with options are not so desirable to option. In order to fit 3 pitchers on the roster, who would you expect to go?

 

I think we add 2 pitchers: 1 from Kelly, Ottavino or Familai and 1 from Allen, Sipp or Herrera.

 

Opening day 12 pitchers:

Sale

Price

Porcello

ERod

Wright- 0

Johnson- 0

______

______

Barnes- 2

Brasier- 2

Hembree- 0

Workman- 0

DL: Thornburg (1 option)

AAA: Velazquez, Poyner, Scott, Maddox, Walden, lakins, Shawaryn, Cuevas (0 options), Shepherd

 

I could see us trying to unload 2 players with zero options for 1 player with or without an option- maybe Johnson and Swihart for a better starter or a solid, low-cost RP'er.

[iortiz]

While Kimbrel was a stud, his declining is around the corner. We already benefited of his prime, IMO it's the right time to let him walk. If we resign Kelly, he could be in the mix with Barnes and Braiser to take the job.

[moonslav59]

This year Craig Kimbrel ranked 22nd among all relievers in fWAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

..and Barnes was pretty close ...

 

1.5 Kimbrel

1.3 Barnes

0.7 Brasier (maybe prorate to 1.3, if he did what he did over a full season)

0.7 Kelly

[iortiz]

I think we add 2 pitchers: 1 from Kelly, Ottavino or Familai and 1 from Allen, Sipp or Herrera.

 

Opening day 12 pitchers:

Sale

Price

Porcello

ERod

Wright- 0

Johnson- 0

______

______

Barnes- 2

Brasier- 2

Hembree- 0

Workman- 0

DL: Thornburg (1 option)

AAA: Velazquez, Poyner, Scott, Maddox, Walden, lakins, Shawaryn, Cuevas (0 options), Shepherd

 

I could see us trying to unload 2 players with zero options for 1 player with or without an option- maybe Johnson and Swihart for a better starter or a solid, low-cost RP'er.

IMO resigning Eovaldi is the key to be successful next year.

 

A rotation with Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi and E-Rod arguably could be the best in baseball next year, of course if they stay relatively healthy.

[moonslav59]

While Kimbrel was a stud, his declining is around the corner. We already benefited of his prime, IMO it's the right time to let him walk. If we resign Kelly, he could be in the mix with Barnes and Braiser to take the job.

 

MLBTR projects $9M x 3 for Kelly. Would you offer that?

 

Others around that projection:

 

$11M x 3: Z Britton & D Robertson

$10M x 3: A Ottavino

$9M x 3: A Miller & J Kelly

$9M x 2 J Soria

$8M x 2 C Allen

$8M x 1 Herrera

$6M x 2 B Brach

[moonslav59]

IMO resigning Eovaldi is the key to be successful next year.

 

A rotation with Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi and E-Rod arguably could be the best in baseball next year, of course if they stay relatively healthy.

 

I could see that, but the estimate is $15M x 4.

[iortiz]

MLBTR projects $9M x 3 for Kelly. Would you offer that?

 

Others around that projection:

 

$11M x 3: Z Britton & D Robertson

$10M x 3: A Ottavino

$9M x 3: A Miller & J Kelly

$9M x 2 J Soria

$8M x 2 C Allen

$8M x 1 Herrera

$6M x 2 B Brach

Definitely.

 

Kelly's problem is in his head. The stuff is there. Cora definitely will help here, in fact, I'm certain that Cora had a lot to do with Kelly's PO magnificent performance.

 

Geez, Kelly has a FB that can post 100 mph with a lot of movement combined with a solid curve ball and change up. You don't find this in trees.

[moonslav59]

Definitely.

 

Kelly's problem is in his head. The stuff is there. Cora definitely will help here, in fact, I'm certain that Cora had a lot to do with Kelly's PO magnificent performance.

 

Geez, Kelly has a FB that can post 100 mph with a lot of movement combined with a solid curve ball and change up. You don't find this in trees.

 

Kelly's FB seems to be mostly straight and at times hittable. He has issues with control and consistency- like many pitchers.

 

$9M x 3 might be too much for such a risk, but looking at those around his projection, I'm not sure we can do much better.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR projects $9M x 3 for Kelly. Would you offer that?

 

Others around that projection:

 

$11M x 3: Z Britton & D Robertson

$10M x 3: A Ottavino

$9M x 3: A Miller & J Kelly

$9M x 2 J Soria

$8M x 2 C Allen

$8M x 1 Herrera

$6M x 2 B Brach

 

Cody Allen and Herrera costs less than Kelly alone, and one drops off the budget after 1 year and the other after 2 years- no 3 year risk.

[iortiz]

I could see that, but the estimate is $15M x 4.

 

I'd do it in a heartbeat.

 

IMO Eovaldi is in Porcello's quality tier if not better. Eovaldi is what, 28? If he commands 15 MX4, sign him already.

[moonslav59]

$15M Eovaldi 4

$8M Allen 2

$8M Herrera 1

 

Might keep us under the max tax line for 2019.

[iortiz]

$15M Eovaldi 4

$8M Allen 2

$8M Herrera 1

 

Might keep us under the max tax line for 2019.

I don't like Allen. I'd rather Miller or Kelly.

[notin]

I don't like Allen. I'd rather Miller or Kelly.

 

But Cody Allen likes you...