Wright, Throwers and Pitchers

[sk7326]

Jones was my first thought. Griffey Jr. also came to mind. There have been so many amazing CFs throughout history to claim JBJ was the best of them all is nonsense.

 

Andruw was just phenomenal. He was the hardest omission on my pretend HoF ballot. His career just fell off a cliff after age 30. He also suffered from being a prodigy - starring in the WS as a 19 year old - so whatever very goodness he achieved always left you wanting.

[sk7326]

Players don't get penalized in UZR for making a play look easy. Similarly, players who have to dive to make a routine play do not get bonus points for making the play look harder than it was.

 

JBJ may be hurt somewhat because he doesn't have a lot of CF wall over which he can rob others of homeruns at Fenway.

 

I suspect he is also hurt by having an outstanding defender next to him ... there are just not as many plays as other CFs might get.

[Kimmi]

Which suggests that home UZR vs. road UZR might be interesting.

 

That would be interesting to look at.

 

Unfortunately, neither Fangraphs or BR does any defensive splits.

[Kimmi]

I suspect he is also hurt by having an outstanding defender next to him ... there are just not as many plays as other CFs might get.

 

That is a valid point. The same might be said of Mookie being somewhat hurt by having Jackie in center.

 

I know that there are several fly balls to right center where Jackie and Mookie both converge on the ball. Either player could make the play, but only one can get credit for it.

[notin]

I suspect he is also hurt by having an outstanding defender next to him ... there are just not as many plays as other CFs might get.

 

This is easy to believe.

 

The more OOZ plays Betts makes, the fewer JBJ has a chance at. And some of the other better defensive CF’s in the AL are surrounded by some rather inept corner outfielders.

 

However then there is Lorenzo Cain, was putting up great UZR numbers while playing in between Alex Gordon and Jarrod Dyson in KC...

Edited August 26, 2018 by notin

[moonslav59]

Players don't get penalized in UZR for making a play look easy. Similarly, players who have to dive to make a routine play do not get bonus points for making the play look harder than it was.

 

JBJ may be hurt somewhat because he doesn't have a lot of CF wall over which he can rob others of homeruns at Fenway.

 

I thought plays were ranked by difficulty and more points were awarded for making the more difficult plays, or is that just Inside Edge Fielding?

 

Maybe I need to go back and study.

[Kimmi]

I thought plays were ranked by difficulty and more points were awarded for making the more difficult plays, or is that just Inside Edge Fielding?

 

Maybe I need to go back and study.

 

Plays are ranked by difficulty based on where the ball is hit, what type of batted ball it is (fly ball versus line drive, for instance) and whether the ball was hit soft, medium, or hard. The difficulty factor is determined by how often that type of play is made.

 

If a player makes the play look easier or harder than it was, that has no bearing on the difficulty factor. JBJ making a play look routine, and another CF having to dive to make the same play would get the exact same credit.

 

With Statcast data now available, defensive metrics will become more and more accurate.

[illinoisredsox]

I caught the tail end of Paul Blair’s career.

 

In the 1970s and early 1980s whenI was a kid

it was possible to see lots of other teams on Monday Night Baseball and see highlights from around the league onTWIB. ( Who else remembers TWIB?) One player I loved was Terry Puhl of the Houston Astros. He played so shallow and could still get back. Lee Mazzilli of the Mets did the same thing...

 

Same here, and yes, I do remember TWIB (Mel Allen hosting).

[notin]

Same here, and yes, I do remember TWIB (Mel Allen hosting).

 

Well how about that?

[sk7326]

This is easy to believe.

 

The more OOZ plays Betts makes, the fewer JBJ has a chance at. And some of the other better defensive CF’s in the AL are surrounded by some rather inept corner outfielders.

 

However then there is Lorenzo Cain, was putting up great UZR numbers while playing in between Alex Gordon and Jarrod Dyson in KC...

 

True - although Betts was the best DRS outfielder in the bigs the last 2 seasons by a really wide margin. I am not sure the other guys as good as they were - were on the same level. Also I think playing in KC vs Fenway is a help there - there are just so many more chances to make plays.

 

One of UZR's weaknesses are odd shape outfields. I mean, Fenway LFs have graded poorly for years ... sometimes it's on merit, but I think there are just very few chances to make OOZ plays. Almost any non-routine or line drive is hitting the wall.

[Slasher9]

Well how about that?

 

Well played

[moonslav59]

Plays are ranked by difficulty based on where the ball is hit, what type of batted ball it is (fly ball versus line drive, for instance) and whether the ball was hit soft, medium, or hard. The difficulty factor is determined by how often that type of play is made.

 

If a player makes the play look easier or harder than it was, that has no bearing on the difficulty factor. JBJ making a play look routine, and another CF having to dive to make the same play would get the exact same credit.

 

With Statcast data now available, defensive metrics will become more and more accurate.

 

I'm thinking if a player makes a difficult play look easy, it may cause the observer to think the ball was medium not hard hit or within everyone's range, when it wasn't.

 

I remember seeing JBJ make one of the best catches I ever saw, and they said it was a 40% catchable ball. Now, maybe I was wrong, but certainly the observer could be, too.

 

Edited August 28, 2018 by moonslav59

[bosoxmal]

I thought this thread concernef Steven Wright. How is he? Where the hell is he? Is he done for the season> For good?

 

He could be a keyy to this pitching staff. Comparing our bullpen the the Rays's we come in last. A pitche like Wright is the perfect change of pace. And he doesn't have to be pulled after an inninh! (when he's "right"

[bosoxmal]

Well, what doe you know! Wright was down to pitch a simulated game on the 24th. What was the result?Am I the pnly one on this board who gives a s***?

[Bellhorn04]

Well, what doe you know! Wright was down to pitch a simulated game on the 24th. What was the result?Am I the pnly one on this board who gives a s***?

 

I give a s*** and I'm sure others do. Personally I only start to pay serious attention when a guy is lined up to appear in an actual game. It can be exhausting following all the injury updates this time of year.

[vegasbob]

Well, what doe you know! Wright was down to pitch a simulated game on the 24th. What was the result?Am I the pnly one on this board who gives a s***?

 

In the sim game, he shut them out but walked 2 in the 9th before picking Beni offf first

[S5Dewey]

I'm thinking if a player makes a difficult play look easy, it may cause the observer to think the ball was medium not hard hit or within everyone's range, when it wasn't.

 

I remember seeing JBJ make one of the best catches I ever saw, and they said it was a 40% catchable ball. Now, maybe I was wrong, but certainly the observer could be, too.

 

 

Ya think?

[moonslav59]

Ya think?

 

Yes, I do. Of course they are wrong here and there, but together, they DO watch every play of every game, unlike I do, so I value their numbers when looking across the league and comparing our players to some I rarely see.

[notin]

Yes, I do. Of course they are wrong here and there, but together, they DO watch every play of every game, unlike I do, so I value their numbers when looking across the league and comparing our players to some I rarely see.

 

Exactly. The key is that they watch every play from every game. Certainly they categorize some incorrectly for Bradley, but that also means they are mis-categorizing some of the catches made by other center fielders as well. A lot of it balances out...

[moonslav59]

Exactly. The key is that they watch every play from every game. Certainly they categorize some incorrectly for Bradley, but that also means they are mis-categorizing some of the catches made by other center fielders as well. A lot of it balances out...

 

Agreed, but my guess is they have a natural built in bias against fielders who make very difficult plays look easy. On the flip side, they probably pad fielders who end up making diving plays on ones JBJ catches in stride.

 

Just my take. No data to support this. Like I've said, I think JBJ is the best SOX defensive CF'er I've seen, but I have no issue with anyone saying he's 6 or 7th best in MLB or top 8. I just don't know enough about the other 7 to make any definitive argument otherwise.

[Emp9]

I just don't know enough about the other 7 to make any definitive argument otherwise.

 

I usually see the ones they make. But not all the ones they miss (At least not entirely).

[notin]

Agreed, but my guess is they have a natural built in bias against fielders who make very difficult plays look easy. On the flip side, they probably pad fielders who end up making diving plays on ones JBJ catches in stride.

 

I think JBJ is the best SOX defensive CF'er I've seen, but I have no issue with anyone saying he's 6 or 7th best in MLB or top 8.

 

And those are two very different statements.

 

And really, considering that baseball has been attracting more athletic players for the past 20 years or so, it's not surprising we are seeing better defensive center fielders and fewer Jon Kruk/Greg Luzinski/Pete Incavliglia type (although there are a few non-pitcher, non-catchers out here. Hello, Russell Martin, Matt Adams, and of course, Panda.)

[Slasher9]

Exactly. The key is that they watch every play from every game. .

 

How can they watch 14 games per day? there isnt enough hours in a day. do they not sleep?

are they robots? perhaps they really arent watching every play of every game. perhaps 1 guy watches 1 team. and perhaps that negates what JBj does. perhaps.

does anyone have the CV of the guy that watches every play of every game?

in case you havent noticed....im not buying it.

[notin]

How can they watch 14 games per day? there isnt enough hours in a day. do they not sleep?

are they robots? perhaps they really arent watching every play of every game. perhaps 1 guy watches 1 team. and perhaps that negates what JBj does. perhaps.

does anyone have the CV of the guy that watches every play of every game?

in case you havent noticed....im not buying it.

 

"They" implies multiple people. Presumably they have set of guildelines and/or standards to judge plays against. There will be differences in opinion and judgment on a lot of calls, but every play from every team is taken into account.

 

I also would suspect a game is watched by multiple observers to reduce bias. And I would be shocked if a single observer was assigned to a single team for that exact same reason...

[Slasher9]

"They" implies multiple people. Presumably they have set of guildelines and/or standards to judge plays against. There will be differences in opinion and judgment on a lot of calls, but every play from every team is taken into account.

 

I also would suspect a game is watched by multiple observers to reduce bias. And I would be shocked if a single observer was assigned to a single team for that exact same reason...

so one person isnt watching every play of every game taking into account how JBj gets an amazing jump and almost never has to dive for an "impossible" catch making it look easy. that is what your and moons earlier posts on this implies. now it has turned into a bunch of guys watching some of the plays. that is a completely different thing. sounds broken/illegitimate to me. dwar can suck it as far as im concerned.

[moonslav59]

so one person isnt watching every play of every game taking into account how JBj gets an amazing jump and almost never has to dive for an "impossible" catch making it look easy. that is what your and moons earlier posts on this implies. now it has turned into a bunch of guys watching some of the plays. that is a completely different thing. sounds broken/illegitimate to me. dwar can suck it as far as im concerned.

 

The guys who rate the plays are trained and calibrated, but they are human. They rotate the observers, so the number pretty much shake out over a long period of time.

 

It's not perfect, but certainly me saying JBJ is better than any other CF'er based on my severely limited observations of other CF'ers is way, way, way more "broken/illegitimate" than UZR/150.

[notin]

so one person isnt watching every play of every game taking into account how JBj gets an amazing jump and almost never has to dive for an "impossible" catch making it look easy. that is what your and moons earlier posts on this implies. now it has turned into a bunch of guys watching some of the plays. that is a completely different thing. sounds broken/illegitimate to me. dwar can suck it as far as im concerned.

 

It may also not be as complicated as you think.

 

For example, unless they are monitoring catchers for pitch-framing, etc, how many plays does it really entail? There are maybe 50 batted balls in a single game on average, which is all they need to focus on. (This is a guess on my part, but with an average of 66 plate appearances per game, 9 strikeouts per game and an average, 6 walks per game on average, and maybe about 1-2 HR/game that they don't need to make a call on, it's probably close.)

 

By watching a game that is already over and fast forwarding to the batted balls in play, it won't take a full 3 hours to watch a game.

 

They also may have access to camera angles we don't have access to when we watch a televised game.

 

No one has said the system is perfect. In fact, everyone admits it is not. But that doesn't mean it is useless, either. In fact, right now it is the best system in place and th incorporation of StatCast data for launch angles and exit velocity has probably enhanced it even more...

[Slasher9]

It may also not be as complicated as you think.

 

For example, unless they are monitoring catchers for pitch-framing, etc, how many plays does it really entail? There are maybe 50 batted balls in a single game on average, which is all they need to focus on. (This is a guess on my part, but with an average of 66 plate appearances per game, 9 strikeouts per game and an average, 6 walks per game on average, and maybe about 1-2 HR/game that they don't need to make a call on, it's probably close.)

 

By watching a game that is already over and fast forwarding to the batted balls in play, it won't take a full 3 hours to watch a game.

 

They also may have access to camera angles we don't have access to when we watch a televised game.

 

No one has said the system is perfect. In fact, everyone admits it is not. But that doesn't mean it is useless, either. In fact, right now it is the best system in place and th incorporation of StatCast data for launch angles and exit velocity has probably enhanced it even more...

this post is alot different from the ones where you were basically saying a guy watches every play of every game so as to take into account the different ways each OFer tracks/gets to a ball.

also....i would 1 billion percent trust StatCast creating the UZR score independently compared to a "guy" watching every play.

[notin]

this post is alot different from the ones where you were basically saying a guy watches every play of every game so as to take into account the different ways each OFer tracks/gets to a ball.

also....i would 1 billion percent trust StatCast creating the UZR score independently compared to a "guy" watching every play.

 

Well, by "every play", I was referring to every batted ball in play. No need to watch all the called strikes and balls and certainly no need to count home runs.

 

Now somehow pitch-framing data is also accumulated. I am not sure if that is simply done by a computer or done by an observer. But as robot ump technology exists, it can easily be used to measure OOZ strike calls from an individual catcher.

 

And maybe they do use computer-aided technology to monitor defensive ratings now. If they don't, it certainly cannot be that far off...

[Slasher9]

And maybe they do use computer-aided technology to monitor defensive ratings now. If they don't, it certainly cannot be that far off...

 

on my MLB app it shows some StatCast plays on outfield catches. it shows distance covered, time, sprint speed, ball trajectory, (i cant recall if they show ball velocity but imagine it is tracked) and assigns a star value to the catch - 5 star being the best and percentage of time the play would be made. to me that is way better than some guy watching it and deciding what he thinks. by way better i literally mean a billion percent better.