Wright, Throwers and Pitchers

[moonslav59]

1. Every play is watched by at least two different video scouts. Also, they watch the plays several times, if needed.

2. The scouts aren't recording the plays by watching whether the player made the play look easy or hard, but by the quadrant in which the ball was caught.

3. The velocity of the batted ball can now be measured accurately.

 

Then why are people even involved?

 

The person ultimately makes the call, and there has to be some bias in the choice.

 

Look, I trust the defensive metrics more than 90% of the posters here, but there is personal bias....even if unintended.

[bosoxmal]

Not to change the subject, but anybody notice that we have a bullpen with more throwers than pitchers?

[moonslav59]

Not to change the subject, but anybody notice that we have a bullpen with more throwers than pitchers?

 

I noticed we have neither.

[notin]

Not to change the subject, but anybody notice that we have a bullpen with more throwers than pitchers?

 

Or that Kimbrel has had only 6 clean innings since June 9, spanning 26 appearances and 27 IP?

[vegasbob]

Or that Kimbrel has had only 6 clean innings since June 9, spanning 26 appearances and 27 IP?

 

Been noticing the BP in general and Kimbrel in particular over the last month or more , mostly through pitch counts needed to get the required outs. It's not a primary metric, but it does indicate the efficiency of the guy throwing, his command/control, and his ability to come back the next day . If a starter consistently goes above 20 pitches per inning, he's likely to only get 4+ innings completed. A reliever doing the same is not likely to be available the next game.

 

I see our guys getting 2 strikes on a hitter, followed by a flurry of foul balls followed by walks . I don't think most of our guys have a reliable out pitch to close the at bat, like Koji's splitter was. Kimbrel's high heater is usually too high above the zone to achieve its purpose. It's been said by others that our BP guys all throw the same stuff (95+ FB/ knuckle curve) Where is the vicious slider that routinely reduces our own hitters to swing and miss for strike 3.

[a700hitter]

i noticed we have neither.

 

lol!!

[bosoxmal]

We have some guys in that bullpen who change speeds by going from95 to 99 then back to 97

[moonslav59]

We have some guys in that bullpen who change speeds by going from95 to 99 then back to 97

 

Yes, all with no no movement whatsoever.

[notin]

We have some guys in that bullpen who change speeds by going from95 to 99 then back to 97

 

Ah yes. The John Wetteland “Brain Dead Heaver” theory of pitching...

[Bellhorn04]

Ah yes. The John Wetteland “Brain Dead Heaver” theory of pitching...

 

Now that's just mean. Guy had a pretty good career for the most part.

[notin]

Now that's just mean. Guy had a pretty good career for the most part.

 

It's not mean. His teammate Jay Howell started that movement and Wetteland embraced the phrase. There were several relievers like him, Rob Dibble, Dan Plesac, etc. is the late 80's and early 90's whose philosophy of pitching was "change speeds by throwing harder" and referred to themselves as the Brain Dead Heavers.

 

https://www.tulsaworld.com/archives/wetteland-living-life-to-an-extreme/article_111d8c68-7357-55b3-afd6-59542f409b57.html

 

"Howell enrolled Wetteland in the "Brain-Dead Heavers Club." Their motto -- "We are not relievers; we are brain-dead heavers." The idea, Howell said, is that changing speeds means throwing harder. "Once a heaver, always a heaver," Wetteland said."...

[notin]

Yes, all with no no movement whatsoever.

 

Movement on a 4-seam fastball at those velocities is not a thing. The ball gets to the catcher two fast to have any time to break, and the 4-seam grip mitigates the air flow around the ball. Primarily, the fastball with movement is the 2-seam fastball, but it has to be thrown about 93mph or less to even have time to move. If it is thrown harder, the movement will take place to late to matter.

 

That's why most pitchers throw 2-seamers in the 91-93mph range...

[sk7326]

The thing I've noticed is that when some folks start defending WAR (and dWAR in particular) there's a lot of "if'", "could be", "may be" "might be", "I suspect", "I presume" and "not sure" involved in the defense.

 

I've gotta stay that if I'm on a jury statements like that don't prove much to me. I'd think it would be more candid to just step up and say, "I don't know what's going on in the calculations, but I believe it", rather than try to defend something they don't know enough about to defend.

 

The thing I will say about WAR is what Notin said earlier...

"No one has said the system is perfect. In fact, everyone admits it is not. But that doesn't mean it is useless, either."

 

Slash does raise a really good point though about WAR vs. WAA. I never understood why they would try to compare a player against a fictitious "replacement level player" rather than an average player whose value can be determined.

 

Replacement value is ALSO a calculated result. Really what position player WAR is doing is taking all of the building blocks of offense and defense and converting their value into runs. Then the runs are turned into wins. A replacement player is contributing the runs added associated with basically that 43 win Tigers team. The idea is that if you just randomly picked a team of AAAA sort of guys, they would be a 43-119 sort of team.

 

And conceptually it makes sense. A team does not have ready access to an average major league ballplayer. They DO have ready access to Tzu-Wei Lin, or a Rick Lancellotti or a Dan Butler. THAT is what you'd actually be doing if you had to replace a player right now.

[sk7326]

Movement on a 4-seam fastball at those velocities is not a thing. The ball gets to the catcher two fast to have any time to break, and the 4-seam grip mitigates the air flow around the ball. Primarily, the fastball with movement is the 2-seam fastball, but it has to be thrown about 93mph or less to even have time to move. If it is thrown harder, the movement will take place to late to matter.

 

That's why most pitchers throw 2-seamers in the 91-93mph range...

 

Yes and no - movement is not a thing generally with a four-seamer ... but there are differences in backspin - and some subtle movement, and of course you add general deception. There is a reason that Joe Kelly's or Eovaldi's four seamers have never gotten much swing and miss.

 

For me, the two seamer, the cutter and the slider are just "degrees" of fundamentally the same pitch with relatively similar grips.

[oldtimer]

What we saw last night is Price with he93 mph max fast ball succeed with his cutter, change up, fast ball by using location and keeping Astros uncomfortable. Brings to mind that we have our BP consisting of mainly hard throwers, which seems to be all the rage these days. Kimbrell and Kelly both get close to or over 100 mph and have a knuckle curve as thier main alternate pitch. As we saw last night the Knuckle pitch becomes a risky pitch with a man in scoring position. Brasier has been excellent but got hit on his first pitch. He has excellent velocity and movement but was complacent on his first pitch and got burner. Barnes also is another big guy with excellent velocity and has a breaking ball and changeup. When right, he gets it done. Hembree, out of the same cookie cutter mold. Eovaldi, same again, although a more complete pitcher. The only member likely to make the BP who is different is Wright with the Knuckle ball.Not a great guy to bring in with men on base, but definitely a different look. Cuevas has some really good stuff, but has yet to prove he belongs in the relief pressure cooker.

 

My point is where are the Uehara type pitchers these days, who don't throw hard but get people out with splitters and a high 80's fastball. Hard to deny he was one of the best we had, even into his late 30's.

[jung]

Yes and no - movement is not a thing generally with a four-seamer ... but there are differences in backspin - and some subtle movement, and of course you add general deception. There is a reason that Joe Kelly's or Eovaldi's four seamers have never gotten much swing and miss.

 

For me, the two seamer, the cutter and the slider are just "degrees" of fundamentally the same pitch with relatively similar grips.

 

Actually 4 seam FB movement is critical to the pitcher's success which is why Kelly throwing 100 is usually still a fail. His FB simply leaves his hand and finishes where it started. If that is the 4-seam FB you have it does not matter how hard you throw it, hitters will catch up to it. That said, his curve does not do a darned thing either.

 

The reason the rising 4-seam is successful for example is because it starts in one place and finishes in another. The hitter simply can't lay off the thing if it has enough movement. It is difficult for the hitter to deal with a pitcher featuring a 2-seam and 4-seam because the 2-seam bores in on the RH hitter from the RH pitcher and the 4-seam rises. If said pitcher can combine those with a hard sinker away, he might not have to throw anything else all day long. If said pitcher can successfully mix in a change, he might pitch a perfect game. The cutter add a little more variety to the mix but its usually used by pitchers that can't throw a 2-seam inside without hitting the batter.

 

At least IMO the hardest thing in organized team sports is hitting the competently pitched baseball from the best pitchers your particular level of play has to offer. How MLB hitters do it at all is beyond my feeble talents and even in some ways beyond my feeble understanding as is the case for all of us that have not been there. Having the hand/eye coordination to recognize what is coming and combining that with the physical quickness needed to get the bat to the hitting zone against the variety of pitches and quality of the ML pitcher is simply something otherworldly. Take it for granted that all hitters are trying to think along with the battery and all hitters should be looking to narrow the hitting zone down to something they can drive with less than 2 strikes.