Personal opinion: Brian Johnson is ready to be our 5th starter

[Dojji]

I tell you what, Brian Johnson won't trick anyone into thinking he was an ace, but he scrapped like a warrior tonight. His body of work this year has been impressive in both starting and relief roles, and I think he showed us a lot after he got rocked in the first inning tonight and hung in there to go 5 and get himself a win. Great work by the youngster today. I could have wished he stayed in the game just a bit longer, but it's understandable, he'd fought hard, they were doing damage to him, it was time to go -- and the bullpen did its job.

 

Considering how he's done so far this year, I wouldn't hesitate to put Johnson in the rotation for the rest of the season. He wouldn't be the guy who carried us, but he's a very acceptable 4-5 starter and that was the scouting on him to begin with. Pretty clear that Johnson is very close to living up to the early reports of his potential. Well done to the man for standing in there and showing that he had the maturity to battle and gut it out after a tough start to his game.

[moonslav59]

He's looked real good for quite a while after looking like he might get DFA'd earlier this season (6.63 ERA on May 11th).

 

He's put together nice 5 starts in a row, despite never reaching 6 IP.

 

IP ER (H+BB)

4.0 1 (4)

4.2 2 (10)

4.2 2 (6)

5.0 0 (5)

5.2 0 (7)

 

I'm happy with him as our 5th starter, but when Sale and ERod come back, and Wright gets healthy again, the choice will have to be made:

 

Wright

Johnson

Pomeranz

 

[Dojji]

If he is not our 5th starter because better options are present in the rotation, such as E-Rod and Wright, that's a good problem to have, wouldn't you say?

 

Believe me, other teams are paying attention to what Johnson is doing. His value is inching upward with every start where he goes out there and doesn't die. He's made himself into valuable depth at the very least. Would I be surprised if DD parlayed that in the offseason into something he felt he needed? Not even a little bit.

 

BTW, it's clear that the only reason Johnson hasn't surpassed Pomeranz on the depth chart is the sunk cost fallacy. He deserves to keep his spot in the rotation at least until E-Rod, Sale and Wright are back

[Spudboy]

I tell you what, Brian Johnson won't trick anyone into thinking he was an ace, but he scrapped like a warrior tonight. His body of work this year has been impressive in both starting and relief roles, and I think he showed us a lot after he got rocked in the first inning tonight and hung in there to go 5 and get himself a win. Great work by the youngster today. I could have wished he stayed in the game just a bit longer, but it's understandable, he'd fought hard, they were doing damage to him, it was time to go -- and the bullpen did its job.

 

Considering how he's done so far this year, I wouldn't hesitate to put Johnson in the rotation for the rest of the season. He wouldn't be the guy who carried us, but he's a very acceptable 4-5 starter and that was the scouting on him to begin with. Pretty clear that Johnson is very close to living up to the early reports of his potential. Well done to the man for standing in there and showing that he had the maturity to battle and gut it out after a tough start to his game.

 

Isn't Johnson the guy who's development was stunted or interrupted by emotional difficulties? Social Anxiety , panic attacks and such?

 

Anyway, the guy stands in there and throws. He is all business and pitches quicker than most guys.

 

In my book, he is still an underdog.

 

He is worth cheering for.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I would keep Johnson in the rotation over Pomeranz.

 

I do think Johnson could have some value in the offseason as a trade chip. On the other hand, unless someone gives me a big offer, I'm holding on to Johnson. You always need the starting pitching depth--even if Johnson begins the 2019 season as the Red Sox 6th or 7th starter, he will probably end up getting a lot of starts due to injuries.

 

Next year's staff:

Sale

Porcello

Rodriguez

Price

???

 

I would like to see the Red Sox resign Eovaldi to fill the 5th spot in the rotation. That would leave Johnson and S.Wright as the 6th and 7th starters. At least Pomeranz won't be around next year.

 

If Johnson and Wright are the 6th and 7th starters, Mike Shawaryn should enter the mix as the Red Sox 8th starter.

Edited August 3, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

Certainly, if Johnson keeps pitching like his last 5 starts and Pom keeps pitching poorly, Johnson will remain in the rotation, but I'm not giving up on Pom as easily as some seem to be doing.

 

Pom pitched great over the first half of 2016 and pretty much all of 2017. He was injured and rehabbing for some of this year. His 2018 season has been horrible, but there is still time to turn things around, assuming he is healthy.

 

I'm not arguing Pom should start over Johnson, but both will get a few more starts before ERod returns, so we'll know a little more by then.

 

Gotta love kicking the Yankees butts without Sale, Bogey, Vaz and Yankee killer Devers... not to mention ERod, Wright, and Smith.

[moonslav59]

Let's say we lose Pom, Eovaldi,Kimbrel & Kelly to free agency. We'll certainly sign someone(s) over the winter, but here is what we'll have to work with beyond any additions or re-signings:

 

SP'ers

1. Sale

2. Price

3. Porcello

4. ERod

5. Wright/Johnson

6. Johnson/Velazquez

Farm depth: Haley, Shepherd, Shawaryn, Cuevas, Houck, Hernandez

 

RP'er

1. Smith/Thornburg/Feltman

2. Thornburg/Smith/Feltman

3. Feltman/Thornburg/Smith

4. Barnes

5. Velazquez, Johnson or Wright

6. Johnson, Wright or Velazquez

7. Hembree

8. Workman/Brasier

Farm depth: (Houck) Scott, Poyner, Maddox, Walden, Lakins, Stanki, Kent

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

BTW, it's clear that the only reason Johnson hasn't surpassed Pomeranz on the depth chart is the sunk cost fallacy. He deserves to keep his spot in the rotation at least until E-Rod, Sale and Wright are back

 

Johnson doesn't have Pom's upside and has never had a season like Pom had just last year.

 

It's funny. If Johnson goes 4 2/3's and gives up 2 runs, it's a nice start. If Pom goes 5 2/3's and gives up 2 runs, it's a poor start and he should be out of the rotation.

[Bellhorn04]

Johnson doesn't have Pom's upside and has never had a season like Pom had just last year.

 

It's funny. If Johnson goes 4 2/3's and gives up 2 runs, it's a nice start. If Pom goes 5 2/3's and gives up 2 runs, it's a poor start and he should be out of the rotation.

 

I hear you on that. I think Johnson is much more likable than Pom and that affects the perception.

[mvp 78]

I hear you on that. I think Johnson is much more likable than Pom and that affects the perception.

 

I think so too. I think people are being very biased when they say the ONLY reason Pom is in the rotation is due to his contract. Were these people not watching the Sox last year or just have short memories? That dude is valuable as hell when he's on his game.

[OH FOY]

I have no problem him Pitching against Toronto, they stink. He should handle them. Pitching against bad teams tells me more how a Pitcher is progressing.

Start after that will be the Orioles, and they really stink. I expect 2 quality starts from him.

Not 5 innings not 1000 pitches, and not attacking the strike zone.

Johnson is a filler at this point. Pomeranz should be dominating over Johnson.

Edited August 3, 2018 by OH FOY!

[notin]

I think so too. I think people are being very biased when they say the ONLY reason Pom is in the rotation is due to his contract. Were these people not watching the Sox last year or just have short memories? That dude is valuable as hell when he's on his game.

 

The problem is people are getting impatient waiting for Pomeranz to be on game, and he may not be ever on game this year if he is having too many physical issues.

 

His last start was certainly more encouraging, but as a starter this year Pomeranz has a 6.56ERA and a 1.80 WHIP in 10 starts covering 46.2 IP. Conversely as a starter, Johnson has a 2.57 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 7 starts covering 35IP.

 

Neither is giving much in the way of IP/start, but Johnson has been better to date in the role...

[Maxbialystock]

I am strongly in the Johnson camp for these reasons:

 

1. He's a lefty with a changeup, which Pom doesn't have.

2. He's all business on the mound, whereas Pom always looks tortured and sometimes simply afraid to make the next pitch.

3. Better control. Just as good a curve.

4. Good at covering 1B on grounders to the right, which Pom is not good at.

5. A lot less salary. In fact, I am appalled that Pom gets $14M.

6. Last year is ancient history. I want to win this year. Plus I didn't like Pom last year either.

Edited August 3, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[FredLynn]

Johnson doesn't have Pom's upside and has never had a season like Pom had just last year.

 

It's funny. If Johnson goes 4 2/3's and gives up 2 runs, it's a nice start. If Pom goes 5 2/3's and gives up 2 runs, it's a poor start and he should be out of the rotation.

 

Pomeranz has consistently sucked all year. His current ERA is over 6.5. Its August. Its not going to get any better. Some here are living in the past, but what he did last year is totally irrelevant.

Johnson has given this team everything he has this year and has the results, overall, to warrant a spot in the rotation. His ERA is below 4. He isn't going to blow anyone away, and he will have some bad starts, but for a #5 SP he is exactly what this team needs.

I would like to see Pomeranz released very soon-as soon as ERod looks nearly ready. He isn't coming back next year anyway, and he isn't going to help this team win a ring this year. I am sure Pomeranz has worked his butt off to get his act together, but the results are not there and they aren't going to be there, not this year. Bye bye Drew......

[Bellhorn04]

Pomeranz has consistently sucked all year. His current ERA is over 6.5. Its August. Its not going to get any better. Some here are living in the past, but what he did last year is totally irrelevant.

Johnson has given this team everything he has this year and has the results, overall, to warrant a spot in the rotation. His ERA is below 4. He isn't going to blow anyone away, and he will have some bad starts, but for a #5 SP he is exactly what this team needs.

I would like to see Pomeranz released very soon-as soon as ERod looks nearly ready. He isn't coming back next year anyway, and he isn't going to help this team win a ring this year. I am sure Pomeranz has worked his butt off to get his act together, but the results are not there and they aren't going to be there, not this year. Bye bye Drew......

 

Pomeranz's ERA actually did get better his last start. He's only pitched 46.2 innings.

 

At the end of May, Brian Johnson's ERA was 5.33 and he was looking a little toasty himself.

 

But the team stuck with him and it has paid off.

 

The bottom line is, the team always has more patience and more informed decision-making than the fans. I trust them to do the right thing.

[sk7326]

Isn't Johnson the guy who's development was stunted or interrupted by emotional difficulties? Social Anxiety , panic attacks and such?

 

Anyway, the guy stands in there and throws. He is all business and pitches quicker than most guys.

 

In my book, he is still an underdog.

 

He is worth cheering for.

 

Yes - he fought mental illness to get back ... good for him

 

Johnson has made a case for the #5 starter - but I think we have to dispense with those definitions ... at least for the rest of this season.

 

We know Sale, Porcello and Price are solid. If Rodriguez were healthy he'd be clearly in the mix - but I will not make any guesses on his actual health. But more importantly, between Wright, Johnson, Pomeranz, Rodriguez and Velasquez - Cora can cobble together starts.

 

Heck, in the postseason I don't Cora will be shy at all about piggybacking Johnson and somebody else and making a Game 4 a bullpen game.

[Kimmi]

If he is not our 5th starter because better options are present in the rotation, such as E-Rod and Wright, that's a good problem to have, wouldn't you say?

 

Believe me, other teams are paying attention to what Johnson is doing. His value is inching upward with every start where he goes out there and doesn't die. He's made himself into valuable depth at the very least. Would I be surprised if DD parlayed that in the offseason into something he felt he needed? Not even a little bit.

 

BTW, it's clear that the only reason Johnson hasn't surpassed Pomeranz on the depth chart is the sunk cost fallacy. He deserves to keep his spot in the rotation at least until E-Rod, Sale and Wright are back

 

Solid posts Dojji.

 

I will point out that Dombrowski does not subscribe to the sunk cost fallacy. He clearly showed that when he started Shaw over Pablo in 2016, then again when DFAing both Pablo and Hanley.

 

I think it's in the team's best interest to see if Pom can regain what he had last year as a starter, meaning I think Pom gets another start or two. He was okay enough in his last start to warrant another start. I'm not saying that Johnson isn't more deserving at this point, I just think the team needs to figure Pom out.

[FredLynn]

Pomeranz's ERA actually did get better his last start. He's only pitched 46.2 innings.

 

At the end of May, Brian Johnson's ERA was 5.33 and he was looking a little toasty himself.

 

But the team stuck with him and it has paid off.

 

The bottom line is, the team always has more patience and more informed decision-making than the fans. I trust them to do the right thing.

 

Time has run out for Pomeranz. Had he sucked again during his last start I have no doubt that he would be relegated to the bullpen-or released. This team has a decent chance to make a good run in the playoffs, and I do not see Drew Pomeranz being part of that. Yes, I trust that the management is seeing what all of us are seeing, and that is why I think that he is on the shortest of short leashes. I will not miss him.

[Kimmi]

Johnson doesn't have Pom's upside and has never had a season like Pom had just last year.

 

It's funny. If Johnson goes 4 2/3's and gives up 2 runs, it's a nice start. If Pom goes 5 2/3's and gives up 2 runs, it's a poor start and he should be out of the rotation.

 

I was going to mention something similar in the game thread, but I didn't want to spoil the good mojo we have going right now.

 

Pom's bottom line against the Phillies was better than Johnson's bottom line last night.

[Kimmi]

I hear you on that. I think Johnson is much more likable than Pom and that affects the perception.

 

I think some of it also has to do with the fact that last night's performance was against the Yankees and we ended up with a very feel good win.

 

And Pom's performance resulted in a loss.

[Bellhorn04]

I think some of it also has to do with the fact that last night's performance was against the Yankees and we ended up with a very feel good win.

 

And Pom's performance resulted in a loss.

 

Yes, it's quite a lesson in how stuff can be spun.

 

Johnson was gritty, giving up 5 runs in 5.

 

Pomeranz was lucky, giving up 2 runs in 5.

[Kimmi]

The problem is people are getting impatient waiting for Pomeranz to be on game, and he may not be ever on game this year if he is having too many physical issues.

 

His last start was certainly more encouraging, but as a starter this year Pomeranz has a 6.56ERA and a 1.80 WHIP in 10 starts covering 46.2 IP. Conversely as a starter, Johnson has a 2.57 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 7 starts covering 35IP.

 

Neither is giving much in the way of IP/start, but Johnson has been better to date in the role...

 

Fans tend to be impatient. We see that all the time. We both know that FOs cannot run their teams based on rash (impatient) decisions (see Blake Swihart, 2016).

 

If it were crunch time for the Sox, it might be a different story. Right now, we have the luxury of being able to be more patient with Pom.

[sk7326]

Pomeranz has a bit of that thing that Matsuzaka had when he was with Boston (not comparing their qualities just style) ... even the good starts are fairly painful to watch, and he ends up throwing a ton of pitches. The results are there - but you miss some of the bulk you'd like with a really good starting pitcher.

 

I think a good way to think of it - at least for 2018 is that Cora isn't really locked into his #4 and #5 choices (and injuries have dictated that) - and frankly, there is no reason for us to have those locked down. Really the operating question is do you trust a guy to get through the lineup twice?

[FredLynn]

Yes, it's quite a lesson in how stuff can be spun.

 

Johnson was gritty, giving up 5 runs in 5.

 

Pomeranz was lucky, giving up 2 runs in 5.

 

Its not about what Johnson did last night alone or what Pomeranz did in his last start-its what they have done since April. Look at the stats. Its not even close. Furthermore, Pomeranz has lost velocity and he has just two pitches. This team has the luxury of having a lot of good pitchers. Pomeranz is not one of them.

[kenmeister]

To be completely honest, while I hope Johnson catches on and remains a starter and I'm excited about what he can do for us, I still think Velazquez would be the better starter if they were both to be given an equal chance.

[mvp 78]

Pomeranz has consistently sucked all year. His current ERA is over 6.5. Its August. Its not going to get any better. Some here are living in the past, but what he did last year is totally irrelevant.

Johnson has given this team everything he has this year and has the results, overall, to warrant a spot in the rotation. His ERA is below 4. He isn't going to blow anyone away, and he will have some bad starts, but for a #5 SP he is exactly what this team needs.

I would like to see Pomeranz released very soon-as soon as ERod looks nearly ready. He isn't coming back next year anyway, and he isn't going to help this team win a ring this year. I am sure Pomeranz has worked his butt off to get his act together, but the results are not there and they aren't going to be there, not this year. Bye bye Drew......

 

A guy who has been injured all year has bad numbers? Wow what a surprise. When Pom is fully healthy, he'll be better than Johnson.

[Bellhorn04]

Its not about what Johnson did last night alone or what Pomeranz did in his last start-its what they have done since April. Look at the stats. Its not even close.

 

As I said, Johnson's ERA was 5.33 at the end of May. What did you think of him then?

[Dojji]

I think so too. I think people are being very biased when they say the ONLY reason Pom is in the rotation is due to his contract. Were these people not watching the Sox last year or just have short memories? That dude is valuable as hell when he's on his game.

 

It comes down to a very simple set of questions

 

1: What is your job?

2: Did you do your job?

 

A bit Belichickian, but it speaks to the main point.

 

Pomeranz was supposed to be the #3 starter. Clearly, no one can dispute that he has not accomplished this.

 

Brian Johnson was supposed to take the ball as an emergency replacement starter and not crap the bed. I think it's fair to say he's exceeded expectations.

 

The upside difference between Pomeranz and Johnson there is no dispute, it's Pomeranz. But when Johnson is somewhere in his 80th percentile for performance, and Pomeranz is somewhere around the 15th percentile for his own, it's really easy to say that I'd rather have a guy who's not that skilled, but has his heart, head and arm all in the game, over a guy who's objectively better, but is scuffling, and probably hurt.

[Kimmi]

It comes down to a very simple set of questions

 

1: What is your job?

2: Did you do your job?

 

A bit Belichickian, but it speaks to the main point.

 

Pomeranz was supposed to be the #3 starter. Clearly, no one can dispute that he has not accomplished this.

 

Brian Johnson was supposed to take the ball as an emergency replacement starter and not crap the bed. I think it's fair to say he's exceeded expectations.

 

The upside difference between Pomeranz and Johnson there is no dispute, it's Pomeranz. But when Johnson is somewhere in his 80th percentile for performance, and Pomeranz is somewhere around the 15th percentile for his own, it's really easy to say that I'd rather have a guy who's not that skilled, but has his heart, head and arm all in the game, over a guy who's objectively better, but is scuffling, and probably hurt.

 

I'm not sure that Pom was ever supposed to be our #3 starter. Either way, I don't think that's relevant to the argument now.

 

Clearly we are discussing who our #5 starter should be.

[Dojji]

To be completely honest, while I hope Johnson catches on and remains a starter and I'm excited about what he can do for us, I still think Velazquez would be the better starter if they were both to be given an equal chance.

 

Velazquez is too valuable right where he is. Relievers that can throw multiple quality innings in any given game are pure gold.