The Blake Swihart Thread

[mvp 78]

That Weiters contract is horrible too.

[moonslav59]

I don't put a lot of stock in recent small samples, but Vaz's entire 2018 is concerning. He's been kinda bad. If you can't admit that, I don't know what to say.

 

Vaz was worse than horrible for 2 months and did very well over his last 60 PAs.

 

Swihart has not shown squat for years and has done very well for 32 PAs.

 

Can you admit there is not enough sample sizes here to make definitive judgments at this time?

 

I hate to sound like I'm dissing Swihart, because I like the guy and have always hoped he'd do well. The fact is, he wouldn't have even been on the 25 man roster, if he had an option left.

[jacksonianmarch]

Swihart is auditioning for other clubs

[moonslav59]

To me, if we can trade Nunez while paying half his future salary, we'd not only get back under that max penalty line for 2018 and better our budget for 2019, but we'd also give Swihart a legitimate slot on the 25 man roster as a 2/3 catcher and utility man.

[mvp 78]

Vaz was worse than horrible for 2 months and did very well over his last 60 PAs.

 

Swihart has not shown squat for years and has done very well for 32 PAs.

 

Can you admit there is not enough sample sizes here to make definitive judgments at this time?

 

I hate to sound like I'm dissing Swihart, because I like the guy and have always hoped he'd do well. The fact is, he wouldn't have even been on the 25 man roster, if he had an option left.

 

Not shown squat for years? Vaz didn't have a 700+ OPS season until he was 27. Blake had one at 23 when most people thought he should still be in the minors getting seasoning. Blake had a 5.9 dWAR in 2015 which is better than half of Vaz's seasons.

[Kimmi]

No, if the market doesn’t provide 12M to Vaz, he’s not worth it.

 

I disagree with that. He was worth $12 mil to the team whether the market will bear that out or not.

 

At any rate, his contract was not for $12 mil per year.

[Kimmi]

Let's hope Swihart's tweaked hamstring does not keep him out for any long period of time.

 

The team sounds optimistic about it and are calling it 'day to day', but hamstrings can be tricky.

[FredLynn]

Let's hope Swihart's tweaked hamstring does not keep him out for any long period of time.

 

The team sounds optimistic about it and are calling it 'day to day', but hamstrings can be tricky.

 

The question is, if need be, could he play? The team only has two catchers. Seems it might be prudent to recall someone...just in case. I do not want to see Brock Holt behind the plate.

[sk7326]

Swihart has always been their most talented catcher all around ... but injuries threatened to completely destroy that. It has been a happy accident that his contractual status forced the Red Sox to keep him. That said, he has been good and deserves credit for that. - and there is a reasonable argument that he should keep playing when Vasquez returns.

[Kimmi]

The question is, if need be, could he play? The team only has two catchers. Seems it might be prudent to recall someone...just in case. I do not want to see Brock Holt behind the plate.

 

The team was hopeful that he would be able to catch today, if needed. Their plan was to start Leon today anyway.

 

If Swihart can't go, I'm sure the Sox will make a move.

[mvp 78]

I disagree with that. He was worth $12 mil to the team whether the market will bear that out or not.

 

That's not how any of this works... I'm sorry. You can't say "he was worth $12M" if no team on Earth would pay that. He was worth $12M to Fangraphs, but definitely not $12M to the Sox.

[Kimmi]

That's not how any of this works... I'm sorry. You can't say "he was worth $12M" if no team on Earth would pay that. He was worth $12M to Fangraphs, but definitely not $12M to the Sox.

 

If he brought $12 mil worth of wins to the Sox, he was worth $12 mil to the Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

If he brought $12 mil worth of wins to the Sox, he was worth $12 mil to the Sox.

 

Yes, and Kimbrel was worth 26.3 million.

[Kimmi]

Yes, and Kimbrel was worth 26.3 million.

 

Yes, he was. Kimbrel brought that much value to the team last year.

 

But just as I would not pay Vaz $12 mil a year, I would not pay Kimbrel $26.3 mil a year.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, he was. Kimbrel brought that much value to the team last year.

 

But just as I would not pay Vaz $12 mil a year, I would not pay Kimbrel $26.3 mil a year.

 

So how much would you pay a player who is worth $12 million per FanGraphs?

[Kimmi]

So how much would you pay a player who is worth $12 million per FanGraphs?

 

It depends on the player and the position. As you know, I'm not paying giving large contracts to relievers. It also depends on age and length of contract.

 

For Vaz, I was very happy with his extension. I think it's a great deal for the Sox without the benefit of hindsight. I probably would be okay with an AAV of $6 or $7 mil for him for no more than 3 years.

[moonslav59]

Not shown squat for years? Vaz didn't have a 700+ OPS season until he was 27. Blake had one at 23 when most people thought he should still be in the minors getting seasoning. Blake had a 5.9 dWAR in 2015 which is better than half of Vaz's seasons.

 

I guess it's only all about what you've done recently, except for Swihart, where we can go all the way back to 2015 or use just his last 36 PAs.

[Dojji]

I guess it's only all about what you've done recently, except for Swihart, where we can go all the way back to 2015 or use just his last 36 PAs.

 

Anyone who thinks Vazquez is the starting catcher right now is not in touch with reality. Leon has been the starter since May. Vazquez is having a terrible year and is in danger of playing his way off the team.

 

There's a reason that even a relatively mediocre performance by Swihart has been so refreshing. There IS reason to believe that Vazquez has a fight for his job on his hands as the third best catcher on the Red Sox this year. On a playoff team, it really can be all about what you've done for me lately.

 

Matters are not helped when Vazquez is also having a down year *defensively,* while Swihart has shown significant improvement.

 

That said, NWIH Vazquez clears waivers either, too many teams need good catching, and Vazquez is still overall a good catcher. But Vazquez has been playing so far beneath his own ability that a guy with upside who can bring some interesting utility to the position is drawing some attention to himself. This is not unusual, and is a normal part of the baseball life cycle. Sooner or later a guy has to perform to get playing time, and that goes for both Swihart and Vazquez.

[Bellhorn04]

Anyone who thinks Vazquez is the starting catcher right now is not in touch with reality. Leon has been the starter since May. Vazquez is having a terrible year and is in danger of playing his way off the team.

 

???

 

June:

 

Vazquez 16 starts

Leon 11 starts

[Spudboy]

It's how Fangraphs values the worth of each win.

 

It doesn't mean that any team is likely to shell out that kind of money for Vaz in free agency, but he did bring that much worth to the team.

 

So it's just virtual worth based on some guys formula to asses value to players.

 

I think that is dumb.

[Spudboy]

I disagree with that. He was worth $12 mil to the team whether the market will bear that out or not.

 

At any rate, his contract was not for $12 mil per year.

 

But how Kimmi?

[sk7326]

If he brought $12 mil worth of wins to the Sox, he was worth $12 mil to the Sox.

 

That is kind of simplistic. Fangraphs value is EXTREMELY context dependent - and heck, it varies during the season.

 

Tampa's dollar per WAR is very low - though it can jump up if it is high enough. (tl;dr - Tampa has to pile up a lot of wins before anybody gives enough of a crap for them to move the needle financially)

Boston's is higher.

 

At the same time, the teams' own "replacement" is not the hypothetical R of WAR - but what they actually expect to be able to sign for the position. I mean, a "replacement player" is basically an "up and down" guy. Basically Bryce Brentz (for an outfielder).

[Kimmi]

But how Kimmi?

 

When you add up the price of the free agents signed that year and how many games their perspective teams won, you can figure out how much each win cost a team through free agency.

[Kimmi]

That is kind of simplistic. Fangraphs value is EXTREMELY context dependent - and heck, it varies during the season.

 

Tampa's dollar per WAR is very low - though it can jump up if it is high enough. (tl;dr - Tampa has to pile up a lot of wins before anybody gives enough of a crap for them to move the needle financially)

Boston's is higher.

 

At the same time, the teams' own "replacement" is not the hypothetical R of WAR - but what they actually expect to be able to sign for the position. I mean, a "replacement player" is basically an "up and down" guy. Basically Bryce Brentz (for an outfielder).

 

Tampa's dollar per win is much lower because they don't spend as much in free agency.

 

That said, Fangraphs value is what teams, on the whole, paid for a marginal win through free agency.

[sk7326]

Tampa's dollar per win is much lower because they don't spend as much in free agency.

 

That said, Fangraphs value is what teams, on the whole, paid for a marginal win through free agency.

 

Also the wins aren't helping fill the 'dome. Tampa has to do a lot to make the market care. The Red Sox get a lot more bang for the win.

[kenmeister]

???

 

June:

 

Vazquez 16 starts

Leon 11 starts

 

Yeah it's really more since Vazquez went on the DL. But regardless, those statistics I've seen of starter ERA with Leon vs. Vazquez are pretty damning to the latter.

[moonslav59]

Yeah it's really more since Vazquez went on the DL. But regardless, those statistics I've seen of starter ERA with Leon vs. Vazquez are pretty damning to the latter.

 

True, except for Wright & Kelly.

 

Career ERA (100+ IP unless noted)

 

Wright

3.50 w Vaz (90 IP)

4.06 w Swihart (71 IP)

6.39 w Leon (49 IP)

 

Kelly

2.81 w vaz (93)

4.28 w Leon (48)

4.92 w Swihart (68)

 

Barnes

3.57 w Vaz (93 IP)

3.60 w Leon (75)

4.19 w Swihart (34)

 

Kimbrel

1.89 w Leon (67)

2.04 w Vaz (84)

9.00 w Swihart (3)

 

ERod

4.04 w Leon

4.08 w Swihart

4.11 w Vaz

 

Porcello

4.06 w Leon

4.15 w Vaz

4.55 w Swihart

 

Sale

2.44 w Leon

3.38 w Vaz

 

Price

2.89 w Leon

4.32 w Vaz

5.73w Swihart (11 IP)

 

Pretty telling how Swihart ranks worst with just about everyone.

[mvp 78]

Pretty telling how Swihart ranks worst with just about everyone.

 

Sample size and all...

[Dojji]

Pretty telling how Swihart ranks worst with just about everyone.

 

It would be more telling if he didn't. Remember that a lot of Swihart's sample came in 2015 when he was terribly raw, and also that we're comparing him to two guys that are both well above average defenders who the pitchers have learned to trust over the years, while Swihart is relatively unknown to most of the current pitching staff (with the obvious exception of the guys who were here in 2015)

 

Far from being surprised that there is less confidence in Swihart, it would be surprising if there wasn't. Leon and Vazqez' excellent reputation as defenders tends to create self fulfilling prophecies when it comes to pitchers putting faith in their ability to call games. Swihart doesn't have that advantage.

 

I think also that it's encouraging that Steven Wright has had no real issues pitching to Swihart. If there's a pitcher who should be giving a bad catcher fits, it would be Wright, but Swihart's right there with everyone else. Further evidence that Swihart's issue is lack of development rather than lack of talent.

 

Oh, and Wright should never pitch to Sandy Leon ever, ever again.

Edited August 3, 2018 by Dojji

[kenmeister]

True, except for Wright & Kelly.

 

Career ERA (100+ IP unless noted)

 

Wright

3.50 w Vaz (90 IP)

4.06 w Swihart (71 IP)

6.39 w Leon (49 IP)

 

Kelly

2.81 w vaz (93)

4.28 w Leon (48)

4.92 w Swihart (68)

 

Barnes

3.57 w Vaz (93 IP)

3.60 w Leon (75)

4.19 w Swihart (34)

 

Kimbrel

1.89 w Leon (67)

2.04 w Vaz (84)

9.00 w Swihart (3)

 

ERod

4.04 w Leon

4.08 w Swihart

4.11 w Vaz

 

Porcello

4.06 w Leon

4.15 w Vaz

4.55 w Swihart

 

Sale

2.44 w Leon

3.38 w Vaz

 

Price

2.89 w Leon

4.32 w Vaz

5.73w Swihart (11 IP)

 

Pretty telling how Swihart ranks worst with just about everyone.

 

This is really fascinating. E-Rod doesn't seem to care who his catcher is. Sale & Price should have Leon and no one else. Porcello and Wright look like they can learn to use Swihart. Kelly clearly misses Vazquez; I hadn't thought to blame his struggles on Vazquez going on the DL.