Who Should the Red Sox Trade For?

[Bellhorn04]

I thought this string was about who we should trade for. In that case, with Wright not doing as well as hoped and now E Rod out with a knee sprain on his surgically repaired knee, we might change our focus to look for a starter and probably a reliever as well. Priorities change and our recent injury bug has probably changed who we go after.

 

E-Rod's injury is being reported as an ankle sprain.

[OH FOY]

Moved this. Edited July 15, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Imho, Pedro's 2000 AL season may be the greatest of any modern era pitcher. And it occurred in the midst of the steroid period in baseball. His ERA of 1.74 was @2.00 lower than the 2nd place guy Roger Clemens (3.70). The largest difference in the history of baseball.

 

Yeah I've always felt that was the greatest season a pitcher has had in my lifetime.

[moonslav59]

Imho, Pedro's 2000 AL season may be the greatest of any modern era pitcher. And it occurred in the midst of the steroid period in baseball. His ERA of 1.74 was @2.00 lower than the 2nd place guy Roger Clemens (3.70). The largest difference in the history of baseball.

 

I totally agree, and to put up that margin of dominance over the next closest pitcher is a good way to compare pitchers from different eras. The fact that he dominated so much during a "hitting era" makes his numbers more than astounding. Add to that, the fact that he pitched in a hitter's park.

 

His 7 year period is also probably the best 7 year stretch (1997-2003) in MLB history, when you compare his numbers to the league norm or his closest competitors.

 

His 5 year stretch from 1999-2003 might not even be debatable. To me, it was clearly the best of all time.

 

1999 to 2003

 

American League

Pedro Martinez

 

ERA: 5.03, 5.09, 4.67, 4.57 & 4.66

P.M.: 2.07, 1.74, 2.39, 2.26 & 2.22

 

WHIP: 1.49, 1.49, 1.40, 1.37 & 1.38

P. M. : 0.93, 0.74, 0.93, 1.10, 0.92, 1.04

 

K/BB: 1.68, 1.65, 1.59, 1.58 & 1.54

P.M.: 8.50, 8.88, 6.53, 5.98, & 4.38

 

Pedro only pitched 116 IP in 2001, but he had the top 4 fWARs from 1999-2003:

11.6 in 1999

9.4 in 2000

7.4 in 2003 & 2004.

His 2001 fWAR of 5.5 in just 116 IP placed 17th!

Halladay had 3 seasons in the top 8. Mussina had 4 seasons in the top 12. Those were the closest.

 

All 5 of Pedro's seasons in the period saw him lead the AL in FIP.

 

I'll leave it to others to prove I'm wrong about this being the most dominating 5 year period in MLB history.

 

[SoxHop]

I totally agree, and to put up that margin of dominance over the next closest pitcher is a good way to compare pitchers from different eras. The fact that he dominated so much during a "hitting era" makes his numbers more than astounding. Add to that, the fact that he pitched in a hitter's park.

 

His 7 year period is also probably the best 7 year stretch (1997-2003) in MLB history, when you compare his numbers to the league norm or his closest competitors.

 

His 5 year stretch from 1999-2003 might not even be debatable. To me, it was clearly the best of all time.

 

1999 to 2003

 

American League

Pedro Martinez

 

ERA: 5.03, 5.09, 4.67, 4.57 & 4.66

P.M.: 2.07, 1.74, 2.39, 2.26 & 2.22

 

WHIP: 1.49, 1.49, 1.40, 1.37 & 1.38

P. M. : 0.93, 0.74, 0.93, 1.10, 0.92, 1.04

 

K/BB: 1.68, 1.65, 1.59, 1.58 & 1.54

P.M.: 8.50, 8.88, 6.53, 5.98, & 4.38

 

Pedro only pitched 116 IP in 2001, but he had the top 4 fWARs from 1999-2003:

11.6 in 1999

9.4 in 2000

7.4 in 2003 & 2004.

His 2001 fWAR of 5.5 in just 116 IP placed 17th!

Halladay had 3 seasons in the top 8. Mussina had 4 seasons in the top 12. Those were the closest.

 

All 5 of Pedro's seasons in the period saw him lead the AL in FIP.

 

I'll leave it to others to prove I'm wrong about this being the most dominating 5 year period in MLB history.

 

 

I've always thought this was an interesting article.

 

This is Curt Shillings thought on most dominate seasons by a pitcher.

 

https://38pitches.wordpress.com/2011/06/24/pitchers-dominance-factor/

[OH FOY]

Since your including Pedro's 01 season, I'll include Koufax 62 season, so that makes this debatable from 62-66, as the greatest 5 years in MLB history.

Now its up to the individual. Both great.

 

Edit: Now if you include the DH, Mound Height, Strike Zone, and Pitching in the NL. Forgot Fenway and Dodger Stadium.

I'll go with Pedro.

Edited July 15, 2018 by OH FOY!

[sk7326]

I've always thought this was an interesting article.

 

This is Curt Shillings thought on most dominate seasons by a pitcher.

 

https://38pitches.wordpress.com/2011/06/24/pitchers-dominance-factor/

 

The top bWAR seasons for pitchers (not including the Dead Ball Era)

 

1. Dwight Gooden 1985 ... 12.2 WAR (24-4, 1.53 ERA, 2.13 FIP, 276.2 IP, 229 ERA+)

2. Steve Carlton 1972 ... 12.1 (27-10, 1.97 ERA, 2.01 FIP, 346.1 IP, 182 ERA+)

3. Roger Clemens 1997 ... 11.9 (21-7, 2.05 ERA, 2.25 FIP, 264 IP, 222 ERA+)

4. Wilbur Wood 1971 ... 11.9 (22-13, 1.91 ERA, 2.63 FIP, 334 IP, 189 ERA+)

5. Pedro Martinez 2000 ... 11.7 (18-6, 1.74 ERA, 2.17 FIP, 217 IP, 291 ERA+)

6. Lefty Grove 1936 ... 11.4 (17-12, 2.81 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 253.1 IP, 189 ERA+)

7. Hal Newhouser 1945 ... 11.3 (25-9, 1.81 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 313.1 IP, 195 ERA+)

8. Bob Gibson 1968 ... 11.2 (22-9, 1.12 ERA, 1.77 FIP, 304.2 IP, 258 ERA+)

9. Gaylord Perry 1972 ... 10.8 (24-16, 1.92 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 342.2 IP, 168 ERA+)

10. Randy Johnson 2002 ... 10.7 (24-5, 2.32 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 260.0 IP, 195 ERA+)

10. Sandy Koufax 1963 ... 10.7 (25-5, 1.88 ERA, 1.85 FIP, 311.0 IP, 159 ERA+)

10. Wilbur Wood 1972 ... 10.7 (24-17, 2.51 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 376.2 IP, 126+)

 

Pedro was more dominant when he pitched than any of these top performances relative to the league. He pitched much less though which prevents his season from being a runaway #1. And that is important! How much, opinions can vary here. One fun note, Pedro's 1999 season where he was scandalously robbed of the MVP - his FIP was an unthinkable 1.39. He had a 23-4 season with a 2.07 ERA ... arguably the best pitched game in Red Sox history ... and had the worst BABIP of any season where he pitched more than 20 starts. That season also included a game where he gave up 9 runs and got chased in the 4th inning by a 98 loss Marlins team. That registers as one of the weirdest "that's baseball!" sort of days ever https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-did-pedro-martinez-get-bombed/

[OH FOY]

Amazing Gibson threw 47 Consecutive Scoreless innings, had 13 Shutouts, Lowest ERA in 50 years, and he's #8, for the 68 season. Cards had 1 .300 hitter for that team too, I think it was Torre. Edited July 15, 2018 by OH FOY!

[notin]

Amazing Gibson threw 47 Consecutive Scoreless innings, had 13 Shutouts, Lowest ERA in 50 years, and he's #8, for the 68 season.

 

#8 at what? I think I missed that part of the discussion.

 

Bob Gibson’s 1968 seems to be universally accepted as one of the greatest seasons ever for a pitcher. But Luis Tiant’s 1968 season is never mentioned, despite being only marginally less dominant than Gibson’s...

[OH FOY]

That's a good point. Next year he lost 20 games.

That whole year of 68 was ridiculous for Pitchers, Yaz won Batting title with a .301 BA.

Edited July 15, 2018 by OH FOY!

[SoxHop]

#8 at what? I think I missed that part of the discussion.

 

Bob Gibson’s 1968 seems to be universally accepted as one of the greatest seasons ever for a pitcher. But Luis Tiant’s 1968 season is never mentioned, despite being only marginally less dominant than Gibson’s...

 

I'm confused. You don't agree with bWar?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

That's a good point. Next year he lost 20 games.

That whole year of 68 was ridiculous for Pitchers, Yaz won Batting title with a .301 BA.

 

It was the following year that the mound was lowered.

[sk7326]

#8 at what? I think I missed that part of the discussion.

 

Bob Gibson’s 1968 seems to be universally accepted as one of the greatest seasons ever for a pitcher. But Luis Tiant’s 1968 season is never mentioned, despite being only marginally less dominant than Gibson’s...

 

it is amazing Gibson lost 9 games. But as noted above, it was a comically good pitching environment.

[sk7326]

#8 at what? I think I missed that part of the discussion.

 

Bob Gibson’s 1968 seems to be universally accepted as one of the greatest seasons ever for a pitcher. But Luis Tiant’s 1968 season is never mentioned, despite being only marginally less dominant than Gibson’s...

 

The best single pitcher seasons after the dead ball era (basically post 1920 or so).

[Fan_since_Boggs]

With E-Rod's injury, I see the Mets as an ideal trading partner.

 

Beeks and Dalbec to the Mets for Wheeler and Cabrera. What do the Red Sox have to add to make that deal work?

 

How about we expand the trade to include Swihart.

 

Beeks, Dalbec, and Swihart to the Mets for Wheeler, Cabrera, and Mesoraco.

 

In Beeks, the Mets get a cost controlled starter who is ready for the big leagues now. Dalbec is a possible future starter at 3b (the Mets aren't loaded at the 3b position in the minors). The Mets can take a look at Swihart for the rest of the season to determine if he is their catcher of the future.

 

What are the Mets losing? Mesoraco and Cabrera are free agents after the season. Wheeler has one more season of control beyond 2018.

Edited July 15, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[jacksonianmarch]

Wheeler will cost more than that since he’s not a rental and has been trending up. Dalbec and Ockimey have the same issue as they’re heading towards being a one note offensive 1b. While getting a power hitter into the system is always good, you’re talking about a 23 yr old Single A player. His value is very small until he proves he can hit AA or AAA pitching.

 

Beeks IMO has limited value as well as he’s more a junkballing lefty and those types have very little room for error.

 

Wheeler is going to return more than you think, which is why the Yanks have moved on. Cabrera will also return something of value as he can be a run producing MIF, which are rare.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Nunez has a negative WAR of -1.2 and an OPS+ of 74. If the Red Sox can't acquire Wheeler AND Cabrera, I would hope they acquire Cabrera. Moreover, Cabrera should cost less in terms of prospects due to Wheeler's extra year of control. Edited July 15, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[jacksonianmarch]

Sox are in on Moose

[OH FOY]

Dombrowski is a chucklehead worried about 3rd base. Reliever in the 8th inning we need.

[Dojji]

Dombrowski is a chucklehead worried about 3rd base. Reliever in the 8th inning we need.

 

That depends on just how serious the injury to Devers is. we've been assuming it's precautionary. If it's more serious, a rental 3B with championship experience is a pretty good get.

[OH FOY]

Here is why Dombrowski is a chucklehead, last year we had nothing, He called up Devers, after a few games in Triple AAA, kid did alright. Now, we have a .670 winning% maybe more, and most of games were losing is because of inconsistency in the BP. He's a kid, need patience. look where your weak. Devers is OK for 21 years.

 

BP is the problem, with the Sox. 3rd base were OK. Don't mess with the on field chemistry now.

[OH FOY]

That depends on just how serious the injury to Devers is. we've been assuming it's precautionary. If it's more serious, a rental 3B with championship experience is a pretty good get.

 

OK if Devers is out for the year I got you.

[Dojji]

Again, you're talking about a player currently on the Disabled List. If they're shopping for a 3B, that tells me they're concerned that that stay on the DL might be a bit longer than the official 10 day listing.

 

Quite frankly, while it can always be better, our bullpen is actually very, very good. the recent struggles of Kelly exposed it slightly, but you have to control for the lighthouse fallacy when assessing the bullpen. You never notice the bullpen when it DOESN'T blow the game. And quite honestly our bullpen doesn't blow the game very often.

 

If they're concerned at all about the health of Devers, then 2B and 3B are both far greater concerns than late inning bullpen arms. Which I still expect Dombrowski to trade for one, but possibly a power MR with upside rather than the premium big time bullpen ace we probably don't actually need.

[OH FOY]

BP will determine the Sox Future going forward, I feel. Pitching always does. Last year Barnes, and Hembree were not on Play-off Roster. We will value them this year. Kelly is a disaster, lately. Hope most Sox Fans have the faith, in our BP. I don't.

Funny thing about Barnes since I live in CT. he choked a lot of games away at UCONN, and that scares me. Great arm always had it. Pressure another story.

Edited July 16, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Dojji]

Another off the wall idea:

 

To the Minnesota Twins

1B Josh Ockimey

SS CJ Chatham

RHP Darwinzon Hernandez

OF Rusney Castillo

 

To the Boston Red Sox

2B Brian Dozier

RHP Ryan Pressly

[fxkatt]

If Devers is a question mark... Cabrera can play third and second and switch hit. So he's ideal both in terms of power and versatility.

[Dojji]

You don't replace an injured player with a player whose knees could explode at any moment

[Fan_since_Boggs]

If Devers is a question mark... Cabrera can play third and second and switch hit. So he's ideal both in terms of power and versatility.

 

Good point. And acquiring Moustakis doesn't address the black hole at second base (Nunez). Holt has been OK, but he fits better in that utility role. I would rather replace Nunez at 2b with Cabrera than Devers with Moustakis. On the other hand, if Devers' injury is more serious than reported, Moustakis makes sense.

[fxkatt]

Another off the wall idea:

 

To the Minnesota Twins

1B Josh Ockimey

SS CJ Chatham

RHP Darwinzon Hernandez

OF Rusney Castillo

 

To the Boston Red Sox

2B Brian Dozier

RHP Ryan Pressly

 

But do the Twins see themselves as out of the race? They're only 7 out in the loss column behind the Guardians, a team with a kind of messed up pitching staff. (altho i guess they want to gain something for Dozier)

 

Just read that their GM is still wavering as whether Twins are sellers or buyers.

Edited July 16, 2018 by fxkatt

[harmony]

Another off the wall idea:

 

To the Minnesota Twins

1B Josh Ockimey

SS CJ Chatham

RHP Darwinzon Hernandez

OF Rusney Castillo

 

To the Boston Red Sox

2B Brian Dozier

RHP Ryan Pressly

Rusney Castillo at $11 million earns more this year than Brian Dozier at $9 million and is owed $11 million in 2019 and $13.5 million in 2020.

 

I don't see the Twins taking on salary for that modest return in talent.