2018 MLB Draft Thread

[Spudboy]

Spud, he has light tower power. Like I said before, I wanted him in NY. He’s got a unique ability to hit the ball a mile

 

Yeah I get that Doc. I saw clips of him and his swing looks long. He has mashed high school pitchers. I just wonder if he will be able to catch up with MLB heat.

 

How many high school pitchers threw 94-100 to him?

 

Of course I am just speculating.

 

I was concerned about Jason Tatum being quick enough for his first move to be effective in the NBA. Obviously my concern was misplaced!

[sk7326]

Boston Red Sox

Best Pick: Triston Casas, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL) – Round 1, Pick 26 – Casas battles Nolan Gorman to be the player with the most power of the high school class. He was supposed to be a 2019 draftee but took on a heavy academic work load and reclassified to be eligible this year. He is not all that athletic, meaning he will be a first baseman only before long. He has performed against good competition and shows good pitch recognition although the pure hit tool is still a question. Typically a high school first baseman is not a prospect to get excited about, but a bat that could realistically give you 35+ HR a year is always a prospect to be excited about.

 

Reach: Kyle Cottam, C, Kentucky – Round 4, Pick 130 – Cottam has shown real power, but I don’t like the hit tool despite his .346 average with Kentucky this season. He allows his weight to shift out front too often, and when he doesn’t he drops his back half to create an uppercut swing instead. The inconsistent body control screams inconsistency at the next level and I could see some prolonged slumps. He does not have the arm or glove to stick behind the plate, and I am not sold on the power reaching its potential, nor the hit tool being enough to play as a first baseman.

 

Sleeper: Durbin Feltman, RHP, TCU – Round 3, Pick 100 – It was hard to watch the MLB draft coverage and not hear Callis pounding the table that Feltman could be a guy that fits into the Red Sox bullpen this year. While that is incredibly uncommon, it is not a crazy idea. His fastball is a legitimate plus pitch, sitting mid-90s and touching 99, but his delivery is so herky-jerky it plays as though it is even harder than that. His slider is also a plus pitch that runs a ton. His mechanics will only ever be a reliever, but it is surprisingly repeatable despite all the moving parts. He doesn’t have the greatest command, but he controls the pitches enough to not be a liability there. To go with his plus stuff, he has the demeanor of a closer, not afraid to show emotion on the mound.

 

Deep Sleeper: Chase Shugart, RHP, Texas – Round 12, Pick 370 – The best player taken after the 11th round by the Red Sox is Nicholas Northcut, but there is almost no chance he signs as he has a commitment to Vanderbilt where he will both pitch and play in infield. Shugart was taken a round later and can be another quick moving bullpen arm for the Red Sox. He got some time as a starter this year for the Longhorns, but it is pretty clear his future is in the pen. He is a short righty but can touch 97 with ease in one inning stints and has two breaking balls that both grade out average to better. There is some concern over his fastball which doesn’t have any run to it and lacks much of a downhill plane as a result of his shorter stature. He is not a future closer, but he does have big league reliever potential and could possibly get there by the end of the 2019 season.

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/6/6/17436250/mlb-draft-recap-al-east

 

The thing to remember about the "reaches" is signability. The Sox very well might have reached for a Cottam because he would take a below slot deal and save them money for Northcut or Shugart. It doesn't mean that they think Cottam is a bum - but the draft rules force you to think this way.

[a700hitter]

Casas has a long swing.

 

Otherwise I don't see anything remarkable about him.

 

What is the name of the hippy 1st baseman the Sox coddled for several years?

 

I can see this kid ending up bust as well.

No one can remember his name, but he was a “can’t miss” prospect who missed. He was untouchable in trades until no one wanted to touch him.

[Bellhorn04]

No one can remember his name, but he was a “can’t miss” prospect who missed. He was untouchable in trades until no one wanted to touch him.

 

I think a few of us remember Lars.

[Hugh2]

No one can remember his name, but he was a “can’t miss” prospect who missed. He was untouchable in trades until no one wanted to touch him.

 

I understand where you're going with this, but remember it's a two way street with prospect value. Yes, guys bust and everyone screaming "DON'T TRADE HIM" look dumb and you get peanuts for them. But guys like Mookie Betts, and Xander Bogaerts are worth 3X the amount now as they would have been when they too were prospects.

 

A farm system exists to support the big league club. Sometimes that entails trading guys, other times it makes sense to hold onto your chips.

[Hugh2]

Yeah I get that Doc. I saw clips of him and his swing looks long. He has mashed high school pitchers. I just wonder if he will be able to catch up with MLB heat.

 

How many high school pitchers threw 94-100 to him?

 

Of course I am just speculating.

 

I was concerned about Jason Tatum being quick enough for his first move to be effective in the NBA. Obviously my concern was misplaced!

 

You were concerned about Tatum?>?????? Please tell me more about how CASAS sucks.

[Hugh2]

Certainly sounds like Northcut is singable.

 

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/high-school/ohio-high-school/2018/06/07/three-former-mason-baseball-players-were-picked-mlb-draft/681187002/

[Spudboy]

I think a few of us remember Lars.

 

Yeah that's the guy.

 

I just heard a good interview with Casas on Brastool. That kid is not lacking for confidence and is funny as f***.

[Spudboy]

You were concerned about Tatum?>?????? Please tell me more about how CASAS sucks.

 

Yeah I said Casas sucks.

 

Right.

[Hugh2]

Yeah I said Casas sucks.

 

Right.

 

Great, so now I can expect a ROTY in about 2022.

[Jack Flap]

"Can't miss prospect" is such an awful term, and one I'll never use. I get excited about the draft, new international signings, and so forth each year, but the fact is that at the end of the day most of these kids aren't going to make it...hopefully this year we picked a few who will.

[mvp 78]

"Can't miss prospect" is such an awful term, and one I'll never use. I get excited about the draft, new international signings, and so forth each year, but the fact is that at the end of the day most of these kids aren't going to make it...hopefully this year we picked a few who will.

 

I like it because it just gives us different guys to talk about.

[Jack Flap]

I like it because it just gives us different guys to talk about.

 

Absolutely...it's always nice to have an influx of new names to follow (particularly this year when the farm has been kind of a dumpster fire).

[Hugh2]

Absolutely...it's always nice to have an influx of new names to follow (particularly this year when the farm has been kind of a dumpster fire).

 

It's definitely been a bad year for the prospect loving folk around here. The barren system is partially due to a lot of graduations and trades over the last couple years from guys who look like they're turning into (or are) superstars but there's a lot of bad with the good too. We've had some busts from Marrero to Ball and empty drafts that have returned very little in the later rounds. Are two top prospects include a guy who will end up missing the majority of 2 out of the 3 last seasons due to injury and suspension and another guy who in his 3rd season will have yet to pitch over 55 innings and will miss all of this year. On top of it all, the top international recruit who we signed ended in tragedy when the kid died.

 

Systems can be cyclical, I fully expect the Sox system to recover at some point. I'm just hoping it's in time to supplement this big league roster when guys start reaching their FA.

[sk7326]

Law on Sox picks (first 10 rounds) http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/23723317/keith-law-draft-recap-al-team-team-breakdown

 

Boston Red Sox

 

Florida prep first baseman Triston Casas (1) has been on the showcase circuit for years and played at American Heritage, one of the best high school programs in the country (producing first-rounders Eric Hosmer, Deven Marrero and Zach Collins), and has always shown good feel to hit. He's big enough for power, but his swing is more geared to hard contact -- if he ends up with 30-homer power it'll be of the Paul Goldschmidt variety, line drives hit so hard they still leave the park. He's a fringy defender at first but good enough to stay there as long as he hits as expected.

 

Nick Decker (2) is a left-handed hitting outfielder from southern New Jersey who has plus raw power but was pitched around a lot this spring. He's listed at 6 feet, 200 pounds, but looks shorter and wider than that, and has a plus arm (and a decent little high school breaking ball too). His upside is an everyday right fielder with 25-30 homers and a solid OBP. Durbin Feltman (3) struck out 46 percent of the batters he faced this spring as TCU's closer, pitching at 96-99 mph with a slider at 86-89 and a max-effort, almost comical delivery. He's the type of guy you draft with the intention of moving him fast while his stuff is still at this peak level.

 

Kentucky catcher Kole Cottam (4) has plus power with great rotation in his swing, and some swing-and-miss along with it. He's an adequate receiver but on the big side for the position. Central Florida right-hander Thad Ward (5) is a pure reliever, 91-93 mph with a tight mid-80s slider.

 

Devlin Granberg (6) hit a comical .442/.541/.680 this spring for Dallas Baptist with 26 steals in 27 attempts, and he is indeed a plus runner. His swing has a short path to the ball without a lot of loft for power. Second baseman Jarren Duran (7) is a little slap hitter with some speed, although he did lead Long Beach State in home runs ... with two.

 

[Jack Flap]

High-school 3B Triston Casas (1) is more athletic than the typical first-base-only high-school prospect and has huge raw power already, with room on the body for more… New Jersey prep OF Nick Decker (2) also has power and a plus arm, but his frame is maxed out… TCU closer Durbin Feltman (3) could rocket through the minors. He’s up to 98 with a good three-pitch mix… Kentucky C Kole Cottam (4) is good enough to stay behind the plate and has above-average raw power… UCF righty Thad Ward (5) touches 96 with life and flashes a plus slider… Dallas Baptist senior Devlin Granberg (6) has above-average raw power and is a good athlete who needs a swing rework… Ohio HS 3B Nick Northcut (11) has above-average power and a maxed out frame but hit all last summer against good pitching… Texas RHP Chase Shugart (12) and Kentucky RHP Chris Machamer (16) are both relief types who work 92-95 with an above-average curveball.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/american-league-draft-recap/

[sk7326]

Law asks: which team drafted their org's #1 prospect?

 

Triston Casas

 

I'm just going to leave this here for the moment: Jay Groome was my No. 1 prospect for the Red Sox coming into the year, but he had Tommy John surgery. I might still take his future over Casas', even understanding that there's some small chance he doesn't come all the way back (or back at all), but I reserve the right to change my mind. And I see you making progress there in Greenville, Alex Scherff.