2018 MLB Draft Thread

[Meh]

Talk about the 2018 Draft here. It's less than a month away. Sox have been connected to Seth Beer. I've seen the Yankees connected to several but most mock drafts have us taking Casas or a redraft with Beck. Casas looks like a stud, really want a pitcher but if Casas is still around he'd be awesome. JT Ginn in the 2nd round would be awesome too.

[Larry Cook]

Beer in the first round and Connor pilkington in the second round and that is a huge start to rebuilding our farm system!

[jacksonianmarch]

Our pitching depth is insane and adding to it at the top of the draft isn’t high on my priority list unless they’ve got one as best available. We are running out of pitching slots in the system while fielding rather pedestrian lineups. We need to reload the offensive side of the ball, especially since our usual route of IFA hasn’t hit as well as we had hoped

[Larry Cook]

Left handed pitcher Ryan Rolison from ole miss would be a huge win if he falls to us in the first round,

[Larry Cook]

Cole Wilcox is a high school right handed pitcher that seems to fit the Sox model.

 

He is tall at 6’4” or so and has a fastball that sits 92-93. The fastball has some downward motion and does not sit in one plane.

 

We do seem to have a scout in the southeast that likes Georgia kids.

[Larry Cook]

Logan Gilbert, Rhp from Stetson Could work for us as well in this draft. He is 6’5” and throws in th low 90’s. Fastball and change up are plus pitches. Not sure what the breaking ball is, but I guess it could be a slider.

He was the Atlantic sun conference player of the year as a sophomore. Then pitched really well in cape cod.

Ps: Stetson produced kluber and de grom, so why not try and catch lightening in a bottle for a third time?

[Larry Cook]

Ethan Hankins rhp Georgia high school. Tall at 6’5” plus.

 

Incredible life on his fastball. The fastball sits low to mid 90’s but it has a ton of life on it. He can throw it on both sides of the plate. Best fastball I have seen to date in this draft. His fastball makes houck’s look like a middle schooler is throwing it.

 

The other secondary stuff is raw and needs lots of work.

 

Highly unlikely he slips to us, but if he does, Desperate dave needs to be all over this kid!

[Larry Cook]

Grayson Rodriguez had the potential to be a major league starter. At 6’4” plus he meets the Sox height requirement.

 

Fastball sits 92 or so. It’s a heavy ball that is tough to muscle up.

 

He throws a decent slider and I know the Sox don’t usually let their starters throw sliders. Th curveball is a work in progress.

[jacksonianmarch]

Callis mocked Groshans to you. I have seen mocks with him higher than this mostly due to his all around game and athleticism rather than sky high ceiling. I don't think this is a good move for a system completely devoid of talent in the upper levels. I think DD goes college all the way unless one of the uber talented prep kids fall. I could see Beer or Hannah in the mix for Boston rather than a HS kid who wont hit prospect circles for 2-3 years. They need a fast mover who can be in AA this time next yr for a trade or groom to take over a spot vacated by departures.

 

He mocked Turang to the Yankees. If this were last yr, I would pinch myself, but Turang has been on the map for so long, that he is starting to cause some prospect fatigue. He also hasn't been as productive as the season before and this could drop his stock. He's an athletic SS whose bat is the biggest question mark. We have plenty of those types in the system, but Turang's potential offensively will dwarf the others guys in system who were picked as glove first guys. It would be a good value pick at this point, but as we are thinning out on the position player side in the middle levels of the system, I would rather see a college bat or bat first HSer like Casas.

[Larry Cook]

Jeremy eierman of mizzu state is a guy I think projects as a second baseman with some power,

 

I think he projects to be at the major leagues in 3 years and that is just prior to pedroia’s contract expiring,

[jacksonianmarch]

Eierman has been top 10 until the past month. Now he’s mocked to fall out of the first round altogether. Clearly, teams need to draft best available, but when you do your draft list, you have guys listed in groups. If a player falls down to them that they don’t think should fall, then take them. But I don’t think the Sox should be snagging a HSer with athleticism and significant distance between floor and ceiling. If they have guys in the same grouping when their pick comes, they have to prefer getting a “safer” pick. The Sox need someone who can tear through the lower levels and appear to have trade value. With the cliff approaching and expensive players pricing themselves out, the Sox will need to replace those stars and I doubt they’ll be able to develop them by then. But if they collect some assets down on the farm, they may be able to trade for them Edited May 29, 2018 by jacksonianmarch

[mvp 78]

Eierman has been top 10 until the past month. Now he’s mocked to fall out of the first round altogether. Clearly, teams need to draft best available, but when you do your draft list, you have guys listed in groups. If a player falls down to them that they don’t think should fall, then take them. But I don’t think the Sox should be snagging a HSer with athleticism and significant distance between floor and ceiling. If they have guys in the same grouping when their pick comes, they have to prefer getting a “safer” pick. The Sox need someone who can tear through the lower levels and appear to have trade value. With the cliff approaching and expensive players pricing themselves out, the Sox will need to replace those stars and I doubt they’ll be able to develop them by then. But if they collect some assets down on the farm, they may be able to trade for them

 

I'm pretty sure DD is scouring TalkSox and making sure that our cliff concerns are being met.

[jacksonianmarch]

How do you continue to be dominant when your kids become expensive? With internal development is the answer

[mvp 78]

How do you continue to be dominant when your kids become expensive? With internal development is the answer

 

My answer is that all the kids won't become dominant. Just look at what the FA class earned this year. The only guy that will break the bank is Mookie.

[jacksonianmarch]

What about Xander? Sale? Kimbrel?

[mvp 78]

What about Xander? Sale? Kimbrel?

 

Xander shouldn’t be too bad. Sale and Kimbrel are “kids”?

[jacksonianmarch]

My bad, guys you’ll need to re-sign. Elvis Andrus got $15 mil AAV a few years ago when he wasn’t even a FA. Xander might not light the world aflame, but he’s a 25 yr old shortstop who’s a 3-5 WAR player every year. He’s gonna see offers around $20-$25 mil a season, easy

[Spudboy]

My bad, guys you’ll need to re-sign. Elvis Andrus got $15 mil AAV a few years ago when he wasn’t even a FA. Xander might not light the world aflame, but he’s a 25 yr old shortstop who’s a 3-5 WAR player every year. He’s gonna see offers around $20-$25 mil a season, easy

 

If I had to make a decision on Boggy right now I would not pay him 20-25 mil on a multi-year deal. That is obcene.

 

I'm generally satisfied with what I have seen him do. And I remember the schlock that was throw out there after Nomar.

 

But this guy seems to have a pattern of spectacular beginnings of seasons and then tapers off. I could be wrong.

 

Lets see him put up back to back healthy and productive seasons. If he rakes, then pay him. I guess.

 

I don't buy into this value scale people have for WAR. No way a player of that quality and performance is worth 20 mil.

[Larry Cook]

Outfielder Trevor larnach of Oregon state is a guy that desperate Dave might consider in the first round.

 

Hits well to the opposite field, draws walks and projects to have decent power.

[jacksonianmarch]

If I had to make a decision on Boggy right now I would not pay him 20-25 mil on a multi-year deal. That is obcene.

 

I'm generally satisfied with what I have seen him do. And I remember the schlock that was throw out there after Nomar.

 

But this guy seems to have a pattern of spectacular beginnings of seasons and then tapers off. I could be wrong.

 

Lets see him put up back to back healthy and productive seasons. If he rakes, then pay him. I guess.

 

I don't buy into this value scale people have for WAR. No way a player of that quality and performance is worth 20 mil.

 

Supply and demand. His WAR is high because of the position he plays. If you moved him to LF, he wouldn’t have a high WAR at all. Goes to show you how rare it is to have an asset offensively at the position. If you move on from him, you’re going to see a humongous drop off in production

[Hugh2]

Bogaerts is going to get paid in FA. If his injury really damped his numbers last year and he is the guy he is this year next....He's easily going to get 25 million a year. If you could extend him now at 20 per annum, then I'd jump all over that. If not, trade him for prospects and sign Machado.....but I'm crazy.

[Jack Flap]

http://news.soxprospects.com/2018/05/2018draftpreview.html

 

Nice preview from SoxProspects with blurbs on a few potential Red Sox targets.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bogaerts is going to get paid in FA. If his injury really damped his numbers last year and he is the guy he is this year next....He's easily going to get 25 million a year. If you could extend him now at 20 per annum, then I'd jump all over that. If not, trade him for prospects and sign Machado.....but I'm crazy.

 

If Xander stayed in the mid .800 OPS range, he will be breaking the damn bank. If he reaches his potential, especially in his walk year, then he could own the bank. As is, if he remains a .280/20/80 hitter with reasonable defense, he will be paid handsomely, especially since he will be so young as an FA. Xander is 25 and his first full year of his new contract will be played at age 27. He could reasonably sign an 8 year deal and be in his prime for all but the final year or so of it.

[jacksonianmarch]

Fangraphs is mocking Anthony Seigler to the Yankees and Triston Casas to the Sox. I really hope the roles get reversed here. If Casas is available for us, I want him. He's a 1b of the future, so that limits his upside, but he has probably the best power of anyone in the draft, college included. Seigler is no slouch, projected to be able to stay behind the dish and hit from both sides of the plate, but when you have the opportunity to get a guy with 30+HR power potential and not so big a gap between potential and now, you take it.

 

Mayo has the Yanks getting Brice Turang and the Sox Ryan Rolison. Turang was supposed to be in the discussion for the top spot after the draft last year, but some prospect fatigue and a drop in offensive production is seeing him slide. I typically wouldn't have an issue with a guy like this, but if better offensive players are available, I would take them. I don't want a project offensively with athleticism as those guys bust more than boom, but Turang might break that mold just because of how long he has been on the prospect circle and how ridiculously high the expectations are. I can understand the pick if it is made, but depending on who they pass on will determine if I like it or not. Rolison is more a crafty lefty who should fly through the lower levels. Deep arsenal with a killer curve and the poise to stay in the rotation, he safely projects to the middle or back end of a rotation. He tops out around 93mph, so he isn't a true soft tosser, but he doesn't have high end velocity. This pick would be a good one for Boston as they need a guy who can rocket through the system and either become an option in the bigs or for trade.

[Hugh2]

Fangraphs is mocking Anthony Seigler to the Yankees and Triston Casas to the Sox. I really hope the roles get reversed here. If Casas is available for us, I want him. He's a 1b of the future, so that limits his upside, but he has probably the best power of anyone in the draft, college included. Seigler is no slouch, projected to be able to stay behind the dish and hit from both sides of the plate, but when you have the opportunity to get a guy with 30+HR power potential and not so big a gap between potential and now, you take it.

 

Mayo has the Yanks getting Brice Turang and the Sox Ryan Rolison. Turang was supposed to be in the discussion for the top spot after the draft last year, but some prospect fatigue and a drop in offensive production is seeing him slide. I typically wouldn't have an issue with a guy like this, but if better offensive players are available, I would take them. I don't want a project offensively with athleticism as those guys bust more than boom, but Turang might break that mold just because of how long he has been on the prospect circle and how ridiculously high the expectations are. I can understand the pick if it is made, but depending on who they pass on will determine if I like it or not. Rolison is more a crafty lefty who should fly through the lower levels. Deep arsenal with a killer curve and the poise to stay in the rotation, he safely projects to the middle or back end of a rotation. He tops out around 93mph, so he isn't a true soft tosser, but he doesn't have high end velocity. This pick would be a good one for Boston as they need a guy who can rocket through the system and either become an option in the bigs or for trade.

 

Theres a lot of talk that the Sox will take Turang if he is there, but there's also a ton of talk connecting him to NY too. The Sox are also connected to a 1B/OF prospect named Seth Beer. Not much of an athlete, and probably will stay at 1B as a pro so that rules out 1/2 the teams but supposedly he can hit. He should make it on having a cool name alone.

[jacksonianmarch]

For the Yankees, we need bats. Outside of Florial (who is on the DL) and Frazier (AAA), our offensive prospects haven't developed as fast as hoped (one got shot, so there is that). While there is a wave from the Dominican signed this past year, we wont see them in long season leagues for another 2-3 years. We need guys who can hit who can methodically move through our system and replenish some longer term coming losses. I can understand Turang, but we have been burned with the athletic types in the past who don't ever develop the stick. I would love to see us get Casas or Beer. Both of those guys have light tower power and solid offensive profiles in general. You guys need picks who can rocket through your system. With the window or cliff or whatever you want to call it, you need guys who can reach the bigs quickly or can become prime trade bait quickly. Beer and Casas might be able to provide that, probably more the former than the latter. Rolison makes a ton of sense as well in that mold

[Hugh2]

I think Ben C. and Theo take a guy like Turang. But Dave Dombrowski seems to have a history of predominantly drafting college pitchers, especially RH pitchers. The Sox have been said to really really like Logan Gilbert, but there's a good chance he is gone by the time he falls to the Sox.

 

With the system Baren, and the MLB team in win now mode I wonder if the Sox go heavy in the college department and try to draft some guys who can reach the majors quicker.

[jacksonianmarch]

That is what I think. I anticipate your top 2 picks to be college players who can quickly ascend the minors and your prospect rankings

[Larry Cook]

I am very hopeful that LHp Rolison of ole miss falls to us in the first round.

 

If all goes well, we follow it up with rhp pilkington of miss state in the second round.

[jacksonianmarch]

Makes sense, entirely. I think the sox are looking high upside hitters or pitchers