The 2018 Bullpen Season Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Davis wasn’t proven in colorado. Clearly there is a bit of a difference with the atmosphere. But outside help isn’t always the answer when you have a prime time performer already on your squad

[notin]

Davis wasn’t proven in colorado. Clearly there is a bit of a difference with the atmosphere. But outside help isn’t always the answer when you have a prime time performer already on your squad

 

Whether or not pitching "in Boston" is supposed to be some sort of supernatural skill is not the issue with Kimbrel. He can have whatever magical mindset fans claim he needs, but that isn't going to stop him from turning 35 at some point in his next contract.

 

Were Davis' issues solely related to Coors? He certainly struggled there, but it's not like he was stellar on the road. He might be a case of age turning into his decline...

[jacksonianmarch]

And he may. But you’re not talking about acquiring another closer with prospect capital. You’re talking about spreading around the money you’d give Kimbrel to multiple guys. That’s fraught with just as much danger as a declining Kimbrel would be. If you said, let Kimbrel walk and save the cash for later, then I’d at least say that’s an option. But signing a good FA reliever is going to cost you 8 figures annually with a commitment starting at 3 and topping out at 5 years. Getting two of them instead of one Kimbrel just magnifies the risk as you’re hoping the two can replace what magnificence was brought with one Kimbrel. And the only reason you’re doing this is to avoid the downside of Kimbrel, but you’re risking the same downside or more with guys like Allen and Ottavino. And it isn’t like they’re spring chickens. Allen is 6 months younger and Ottavino is 2 yrs older

[jacksonianmarch]

And what I mean with magnifying the risk is that you’re hoping the two of them improve the pen enough to replace Kimbrel even though you know both of them aren’t as good. This means you need two guys providing career level performances to create a bridge and closer whereas you had one closer who was totally lights out. The risk in that is if either one is ineffective or gets hurt, you’ve worsened your squad

[Bellhorn04]

And what I mean with magnifying the risk is that you’re hoping the two of them improve the pen enough to replace Kimbrel even though you know both of them aren’t as good. This means you need two guys providing career level performances to create a bridge and closer whereas you had one closer who was totally lights out. The risk in that is if either one is ineffective or gets hurt, you’ve worsened your squad

 

It's true, there is significant risk no matter what you do.

 

That's why guys like DD and Cashman get paid a lot to make these calls, and with tons of data at their fingertips-and even then they're going to be wrong a fair number of times.

[notin]

And he may. But you’re not talking about acquiring another closer with prospect capital. You’re talking about spreading around the money you’d give Kimbrel to multiple guys. That’s fraught with just as much danger as a declining Kimbrel would be. If you said, let Kimbrel walk and save the cash for later, then I’d at least say that’s an option. But signing a good FA reliever is going to cost you 8 figures annually with a commitment starting at 3 and topping out at 5 years. Getting two of them instead of one Kimbrel just magnifies the risk as you’re hoping the two can replace what magnificence was brought with one Kimbrel. And the only reason you’re doing this is to avoid the downside of Kimbrel, but you’re risking the same downside or more with guys like Allen and Ottavino. And it isn’t like they’re spring chickens. Allen is 6 months younger and Ottavino is 2 yrs older

 

That depends on the deals they get.

 

If Kimbrel wants 5 years, like Jansen and Chapman received, set up guys like Ottavino were only looking at 2 year deals last year, which lines up better with Betts free agency and Benintendi's more costly arb years. Those 3 years make a big difference in a lot of ways.

 

Also, while I can't see a match just yet, there is actually a realistic chance Dombrowski trades Bradley for a closer. The outfield defense will suffer in whichever corner JD Martinez plays, but finding a short term DH bat is usually not that difficult...

[mvp 78]

Mistakenly, I turned on sports radio the other day and the host was ranting how DD was an idiot for letting Buttrey go because we didn't really need Ian Kinsler. "He's a nice player, but this team needs bullpen help... Achilles heel... Blah Blah Blah..."

 

I thought Buttrey looked to be a decent reliever, but his numbers in MLB seemed unsustainable when looking at his history in the minors. He never really dominated the way he had after coming up.

 

Well, seems like the league is catching up to him? https://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=14719&position=P&gds=&gde=

[Bellhorn04]

Mistakenly, I turned on sports radio the other day and the host was ranting how DD was an idiot for letting Buttrey go because we didn't really need Ian Kinsler. "He's a nice player, but this team needs bullpen help... Achilles heel... Blah Blah Blah..."

 

I thought Buttrey looked to be a decent reliever, but his numbers in MLB seemed unsustainable when looking at his history in the minors. He never really dominated the way he had after coming up.

 

Well, seems like the league is catching up to him? https://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=14719&position=P&gds=&gde=

 

What sayeth that host now?

[mvp 78]

What sayeth that host now?

 

I ain't turning that s*** on again intentionally. I only made it about 90 seconds last time.

[jacksonianmarch]

That depends on the deals they get.

 

If Kimbrel wants 5 years, like Jansen and Chapman received, set up guys like Ottavino were only looking at 2 year deals last year, which lines up better with Betts free agency and Benintendi's more costly arb years. Those 3 years make a big difference in a lot of ways.

 

Also, while I can't see a match just yet, there is actually a realistic chance Dombrowski trades Bradley for a closer. The outfield defense will suffer in whichever corner JD Martinez plays, but finding a short term DH bat is usually not that difficult...

 

Be t if you’re afraid of Kimbrel in a decline phase, why sign Ottavino for the ages that you’d be worried about Kimbrel. Listen, if you’re spending money, you want to ensure you’re getting something for it. If you throw $20 mil at your pen in 2019 and all $20 mil is declining or useless, then you’ve created a hole while sinking money

[oldtimer]

What sayeth that host now?

 

Pundits say all sorts of things, many to just be controversial. So do some on this site. It doesn't make them true or even interesting. DD's decision making over the last year has been good and we have 106 wins with a few games to play. No general manager is going to hit on every move, but Eovaldi, Pearce and Kinsler have worked out well. DD hasn't had a lot of resources to work with, so the job has been all the more difficult. Sure, he can be second guessed for his use of the Minor league to get some people or overpaying for some, but Sale and Kimbrel have been instrumental in this teams success. He has had some bad luck as well with Smith and Thornburg. I have been following the Sox since the mid 1940's and know how difficult it is to be in the spot we have accomplished so far this year. Good job by DD and also for selecting Cora.

[Slasher9]

Ding ding ding. He is among the best in baseball. 6.4 WAR the last 2 seasons is incredible for a reliever. He was about a win above replacement when he arrived, but he was solid near or over 3 for every year before then. He was at 11.6WAR his final 4 years in Atlanta and after a 1.3 and 0.9 the following two years with SD and Boston, he is back to that pace. He is an incredible closer capable of locking things down IN BOSTON. You guys need to remember that for every Kimbrel, there's a Hansen. Guys with premier stuff who wilt under the pressure.

 

we will win the ALE by double digits. Joe Schmoe could be our closer and we still win the division. Kimbrel is not as important to our 2018 season as some are stating. with a s***** closer we still win the division by a handful....

[Bellhorn04]

we will win the ALE by double digits. Joe Schmoe could be our closer and we still win the division. Kimbrel is not as important to our 2018 season as some are stating. with a s***** closer we still win the division by a handful....

 

Well, because we won the division by so much you could say we had some room for error.

 

Kimbrel might be pretty important in the postseason.

[cp176]

we will win the ALE by double digits. Joe Schmoe could be our closer and we still win the division. Kimbrel is not as important to our 2018 season as some are stating. with a s***** closer we still win the division by a handful....

 

Hey come on - there are plenty of people here who think that we would have done the same without Martinez! Imagine that - I like having them both.

[Kimmi]

It could also drop your cliff by not signing him if you don't reach as dizzying a height as your team is capable of

 

Even if there weren't a cliff, even if we didn't have to consider saving money to extend some of our young core, I would not give Kimbrel a 5 year deal for $100 million. No way.

[Kimmi]

I'm wondering if a 2018 ring makes a difference on our spending plans for 2019.

 

I'm sure that it will.

[moonslav59]

Even if there weren't a cliff, even if we didn't have to consider saving money to extend some of our young core, I would not give Kimbrel a 5 year deal for $100 million. No way.

 

Agreed.

[notin]

Be t if you’re afraid of Kimbrel in a decline phase, why sign Ottavino for the ages that you’d be worried about Kimbrel. Listen, if you’re spending money, you want to ensure you’re getting something for it. If you throw $20 mil at your pen in 2019 and all $20 mil is declining or useless, then you’ve created a hole while sinking money

 

Yes there is a chance the Sox get a different declining reliever, but the idea is not for 5 years and not for $20mill per. If the Sox get Ottavino for 2 years, the likelihood he declines in 2 is less than the likelihood Kimbrel declines in five. And if he does, the wasted money is significantly less.

 

It's like when the Sox signed Sandoval, I was on BDC saying the Sox would be better off acquiring Luis Valbuena. Well, it turned out that, like Sandoval, Valbuena also was pretty bad. But his deal was far less of n issue for the Angels than Sandoval's deal still is for Boston...

[cp176]

Agreed.

 

Is there anyone you think Moon who has said that they would actually be in favor of signing Kimbrel to 5 years at 20 million? Where does this stuff come from? I probably have missed something once again but saying that you would be opposed to that deal is good. As far as I can tell, so is everybody else. The primary point still exists - trying to replace him by signing a bunch of relievers in hopes that one of them will pan out is a major stretch. He is the best in the game and simply letting him walk away with no effort to sign him would be a joke and likely will not happen. DD will do due diligence and probably will make the right decision. I like his track record.

[dgalehouse]

To be in on the bidding for Kimbrel, a team would need to be a legitimate contender , have room in the budget and be in need of a closer. There are not too many teams that are a match . The Sox most certainly are one of them. I think there is a good chance of signing him for considerably less than the numbers that are being tossed around.

[notin]

Is there anyone you think Moon who has said that they would actually be in favor of signing Kimbrel to 5 years at 20 million? Where does this stuff come from? I probably have missed something once again but saying that you would be opposed to that deal is good. As far as I can tell, so is everybody else. The primary point still exists - trying to replace him by signing a bunch of relievers in hopes that one of them will pan out is a major stretch. He is the best in the game and simply letting him walk away with no effort to sign him would be a joke and likely will not happen. DD will do due diligence and probably will make the right decision. I like his track record.

 

Well, his track record in Detroit for signing expiring contracts was not really that good. That team is still stuck with Miguel Cabrera for 5 more years at $154million, and Cabrera is already closer to needing a wheel chair than he is to making an All Star team.

 

We get the point that another pitcher isn't going to simply step in and pitch like Kimbrel did. Kimbrel himself might not even be able to. And, as fans, we have the luxury of loking at it one yaer at a time and solely focusing on talent. But Dombrowski doesn't have that luxury. And if Kimbrel's contract starts approaching the early speculation - which is not unreasonable - it should be a difficult decision to being him back, because there will be ramifications on future moves.

 

And really, as Slasher pointyed out - how necessary is Kimbrel? The Sox have won 107 games and are 10 up on second place. Where would they be without Kimbrel? Maybe 7 games up? He isn't the difference in the division here.

 

Betts, on the other hand, might be. He is a guy the Sox need to start focusing on ASAP, assuming he (and his agent) is willing. And it certainly is possible that DD has already put that in motion...

[cp176]

To be in on the bidding for Kimbrel, a team would need to be a legitimate contender , have room in the budget and be in need of a closer. There are not too many teams that are a match . The Sox most certainly are one of them. I think there is a good chance of signing him for considerably less than the numbers that are being tossed around.

 

I agree and it is also possible that he wants to come back to Boston. It has been a pretty good gig for him and Boston does mean something to him and his family.

[notin]

I agree and it is also possible that he wants to come back to Boston. It has been a pretty good gig for him and Boston does mean something to him and his family.

 

Don't count on it. Price saying he wants to come back when no team is going to match the remaining money he is guaranteed in Boston is one thing. Kimbrel's situation is 100% different.

 

But this is Kimbrel's first chance and best chance to score a big contract. He has been pitching his entire life for this offseason. It's his lottery ticket. He didn't hire an agent so that he could take a cheaper deal and come back to Boston. If he comes back to the Sox, it's going to be for the same boatload of cash he would take from any team...

[cp176]

Well, his track record in Detroit for signing expiring contracts was not really that good. That team is still stuck with Miguel Cabrera for 5 more years at $154million, and Cabrera is already closer to needing a wheel chair than he is to making an All Star team.

 

We get the point that another pitcher isn't going to simply step in and pitch like Kimbrel did. Kimbrel himself might not even be able to. And, as fans, we have the luxury of loking at it one yaer at a time and solely focusing on talent. But Dombrowski doesn't have that luxury. And if Kimbrel's contract starts approaching the early speculation - which is not unreasonable - it should be a difficult decision to being him back, because there will be ramifications on future moves.

 

And really, as Slasher pointyed out - how necessary is Kimbrel? The Sox have won 107 games and are 10 up on second place. Where would they be without Kimbrel? Maybe 7 games up? He isn't the difference in the division here.

 

Betts, on the other hand, might be. He is a guy the Sox need to start focusing on ASAP, assuming he (and his agent) is willing. And it certainly is possible that DD has already put that in motion...

 

Hey notin, i get the point that you think DD is still working for the Tigers as well. I don't really agree with Slasher and it likely is that he doesn't agree with himself here either. Suggesting that it is a choice between Kimbrel and anyone else is just a bit premature. Let's see what is Kimbrel's current save total this year? Yup we didn't him - we got Kelly, Brasier, Hembree, Barnes, Smith, Thornbure etc. ...

[cp176]

Don't count on it. Price saying he wants to come back when no team is going to match the remaining money he is guaranteed in Boston is one thing. Kimbrel's situation is 100% different.

 

But this is Kimbrel's first chance and best chance to score a big contract. He has been pitching his entire life for this offseason. It's his lottery ticket. He didn't hire an agent so that he could take a cheaper deal and come back to Boston. If he comes back to the Sox, it's going to be for the same boatload of cash he would take from any team...

 

guess we will just have to wait and see what happens ...

[cp176]

Hey notin, i get the point that you think DD is still working for the Tigers as well. I don't really agree with Slasher and it likely is that he doesn't agree with himself here either. Suggesting that it is a choice between Kimbrel and anyone else is just a bit premature. Let's see what is Kimbrel's current save total this year? Yup we didn't him - we got Kelly, Brasier, Hembree, Barnes, Smith, Thornbure etc. ...

 

 

Slasher - don't take the comment personally. reading your comments is good for my soul. lol

[notin]

To be in on the bidding for Kimbrel, a team would need to be a legitimate contender , have room in the budget and be in need of a closer. There are not too many teams that are a match . The Sox most certainly are one of them. I think there is a good chance of signing him for considerably less than the numbers that are being tossed around.

 

Actually the Cubs might be a better match in terms of available money and they have the same need for a closer.

 

Amd there are always surprise teams that get involved. Washington, for example, is not going to pass on Kimbrel because they have Sean Doolittle. They might pass on him for other reasons, like to focus on starting pitching, but they could certainly use another arm in the pen.

 

The Angels are also trying to build a contender and have no closer to speak of. I would consider them a candidate as well...

[Slasher9]

Hey notin, i get the point that you think DD is still working for the Tigers as well. I don't really agree with Slasher and it likely is that he doesn't agree with himself here either. Suggesting that it is a choice between Kimbrel and anyone else is just a bit premature. Let's see what is Kimbrel's current save total this year? Yup we didn't him - we got Kelly, Brasier, Hembree, Barnes, Smith, Thornbure etc. ...

Hey now! I believe myself! I think....

Seriously- how many more blown saves would an average closer have than kimbrel had this season? 3? 5? Even if it’s 8 we still win the division. Kimbrel has had 0 influence on our outcome this season (regular). If he is 2007 papelbon this offseason then he gets a couple more million per on his next contract from not the Sox....

[Slasher9]

Slasher - don't take the comment personally. reading your comments is good for my soul. lol

 

Hahaha. I didn’t. Or did I??.!,!

[notin]

guess we will just have to wait and see what happens ...

 

That's our only option.

 

But I would put the chances of "Kimbrel takes less money to stay in Boston" on the list labeled "Pipe Dreams" long before I put it in the list of "Likely Outcomes".

 

Right now, the 5yr/$100 mill is just some media speculation that can probably be found with a Google search here and there. But it isn't unreasonable given the recent contracts I have cited. It's probably not what the exact figure will be, but it's probably not far off, either. But what is your take on what you think Kimbrel is going to sign for? What do you think it will take to keep him in Boston?