The 2018 Bullpen Season Thread

[moonslav59]

I look at it this way.

 

By the end of the 2020 season, the following key players will all have reached free agency:

 

Kimbrel

Bogaerts

Sale

Porcello

Betts

Martinez (if he opts out)

Bradley

 

Given that David Price isn't going anywhere and every one of these players except maybe Bradley is likely to command over $20mill per season, some in great excess of that amount, the Sox are not likely to be able to keep them all.

 

And while they do spend a lot of money, they are probaby not going to tie up over $100mill in 4 players (counting Price), leaving maybe another $100mill for the other 21 roster spots. If they do spend heavy and keep too many of these players, it will be difficult to impossible to keep Benintendi and/or Devers, assuming Devers shows he is worth keeping. We may not know their limit, but they absolutely do have one.

 

Maybe they can retain 2 of those players and hope Martinez doesn't opt out. If that is the case, what two would you keep?

 

I'll go in reverse (most willing to let walk-nothing to do with "love"):

 

1. Porcello

2. Kimbrel

3. Bogey

4. Bradley

5. JD

6. Sale

7. Betts

[mvp 78]

I'll go in reverse (most willing to let walk-nothing to do with "love"):

 

1. Porcello

2. Kimbrel

3. Bogey

4. Bradley

5. JD

6. Sale

7. Betts

 

You'd let Xander leave before JBJ? Really? Who do you think is easier to replace?

[dgalehouse]

I'll go in reverse (most willing to let walk-nothing to do with "love"):

 

1. Porcello

2. Kimbrel

3. Bogey

4. Bradley

5. JD

6. Sale

7. Betts

 

Most everyone has their biases. You are no exception. You say it has nothing to do with " love " , yet you want to keep JBJ ahead of Bogaerts. Let's hope Dombrowski is more objective.

[notin]

I'll go in reverse (most willing to let walk-nothing to do with "love"):

 

1. Porcello

2. Kimbrel

3. Bogey

4. Bradley

5. JD

6. Sale

7. Betts

 

I think everyone would let Porcello walk, including Dombrowski. Unless somehow he commands a far lesser deal than the one he already received.

 

JD is another player the Sox need to keep. He would be great to keep, and hopefully he makes it a non-factor by not opting out. But his agent will certainly be giving him different advice if he keeps this up. But as he is already on the books for $90mill over the next 4 years, the raise to keep him shouldn't be too substantial. I assume Dombrowski and the accoutning team figure him in for future plans.

 

I get why you put Bradley over Bogaerts, as Bradley is likely in a different tax bracket. But I still think Bogaerts has his best years ahead of him. I would put both of them behind Sale (like you did) if I had faith in Sale staying healthy. His shoulder troubles this year, his past elbow issues (the White Sox briefly moved him to closer one season due to arm trouble), and that herky-jerky delivery that makes Dr. James Andrews eyes light up every time he sees it all make me very suspicious of his long term durability.

 

Betts is a no-brainer at the top of the list. Bogaerts is second. And then Martinez, and if he is still affordable, Bradley. (Bogaerts, Bradley and Martinez are all Boras clients, which might influence the decision-making process for DD.)

 

That does leave a gaping hole in the pitching staff, as I think there are reasons to let all 3 go when the time comes. DD better start getting young arms in the system and stop trading for relievers who need TJ the next day.

[notin]

Most everyone has their biases. You are no exception. You say it has nothing to do with " love " , yet you want to keep JBJ ahead of Bogaerts. Let's hope Dombrowski is more objective.

 

Maybe that is because he figures JBJ to be significantly cheaper than Bogaerts?

 

Both are Boras clients. Both will try the market and go for the best deal possible. They didn't hire Boras to get any other advice...

[mvp 78]

JBJ is 14th in fWAR this year. Seems easier to replace than Xander at #6, no?

[notin]

You'd let Xander leave before JBJ? Really? Who do you think is easier to replace?

 

With our s***** farm system? It might be Bogaerts. Whose the best CF over the age of 19 in the Sox farm system? CJ Chatham might be nothing more than a utility infielder when his day comes, but he is closer to MLB than any of our center field prospects (unless you like Rusney Castillo, which DD doesn't)...

[Maxbialystock]

I'll go in reverse (most willing to let walk-nothing to do with "love"):

 

1. Porcello

2. Kimbrel

3. Bogey

4. Bradley

5. JD

6. Sale

7. Betts

 

mvp78,

 

moonslav has a thing about defense up the middle. He loved Iglesias in 2013 and hated that he was traded. His theory was that good defense saves probably two or three hundred runs a year--or is it a month? With Iglesias at SS and JBJ in CF right now the Sox team ERA would be like 1.25. That's how important defense is, and Bogey is just average (or worse).

 

Nevertheless, I always like it when moonslav provides a list like this. He knows his own mind--and the players. My only switch in fact would be switching JBJ and Bogey.

[notin]

mvp78,

 

moonslav has a thing about defense up the middle. He loved Iglesias in 2013 and hated that he was traded. His theory was that good defense saves probably two or three hundred runs a year--or is it a month? With Iglesias at SS and JBJ in CF right now the Sox team ERA would be like 1.25. That's how important defense is, and Bogey is just average (or worse).

 

Nevertheless, I always like it when moonslav provides a list like this. He knows his own mind--and the players. My only switch in fact would be switching JBJ and Bogey.

 

Apparently my "walk list" would be way mopre controversial:

 

1. Porcello

2. Kimbrel

3. Sale

4. Bradley

5. Martinez

6. Bogaerts

7. Betts

 

I doubt anyone else is as willing to let Sale walk as I am. But I think he might be another Price for the Sox - cost roughly $30mill and be a shell of his former self, likely due to his potential for injuries...

[mvp 78]

With our s***** farm system? It might be Bogaerts. Whose the best CF over the age of 19 in the Sox farm system? CJ Chatham might be nothing more than a utility infielder when his day comes, but he is closer to MLB than any of our center field prospects (unless you like Rusney Castillo, which DD doesn't)...

 

Yes, because all replacements need to come from in house when you have consistently had one of the largest payrolls in baseball.

[notin]

Yes, because all replacements need to come from in house when you have consistently had one of the largest payrolls in baseball.

 

Well, some of them are going to have to. You can't afford to keep all the highest paid players without having some dirt cheap minimum wage players to offset them...

[mvp 78]

Well, some of them are going to have to. You can't afford to keep all the highest paid players without having some dirt cheap minimum wage players to offset them...

 

Or you move Beni to RF, Betts to CF and have Dalbec/Chavis transition to LF.

[moonslav59]

You'd let Xander leave before JBJ? Really? Who do you think is easier to replace?

 

That's not my criteria.

 

Bogey may cost near twice as much as JBJ to keep.

 

I'm also very biased towards great fielding short stops. Kinda the same way I could care less, if Leon hits as a catcher as long as those he catches bring home the bacon.

 

It's close.

 

I want to keep Bogey.

[mvp 78]

That's not my criteria.

 

Bogey may cost near twice as much as JBJ to keep.

 

I'm also very biased towards great fielding short stops. Kinda the same way I could care less, if Leon hits as a catcher as long as those he catches bring home the bacon.

 

It's close.

 

I want to keep Bogey.

 

Who are you replacing him with? What great fielding shortstop is available/ready to contribute?

[moonslav59]

Who are you replacing him with? What great fielding shortstop is available/ready to contribute?

 

I'm not sure who will be a FA in 2020, but my guess is we can find a great defensive SS for pretty cheap.

[sk7326]

Who are you replacing him with? What great fielding shortstop is available/ready to contribute?

 

Really the move with Bogaerts is to trade him THIS offseason (if you are sure you are not going to re-sign him) where you can get a strong return for a guy with a year of control. For instance, Jose Iglesias is a free agent this offseason. I don't think I would do this - but if they want to move on from Bogaerts the best time to do it is THIS offseason.

[oldtimer]

Since this is the bullpen thread I mention that Thornburg is now shutdown by Cora. He wasn't making the post season anyway, but he also will not be used in the last few games either.

[sk7326]

Since this is the bullpen thread I mention that Thornburg is now shutdown by Cora. He wasn't making the post season anyway, but he also will not be used in the last few games either.

 

Here's what we know I think ...

 

Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi

Rodriguez, Kimbrel, Wright, Brasier, Barnes

 

So basically 2 more slots ... I am inclined to think Kelly gets one. The other could be anybody.

 

I have Eovaldi instead of Rodriguez here mostly because the playoff teams have generally been good against lefties, and Rodriguez in the pen eliminates the need to carry a lefty just to have one.

[notin]

Really the move with Bogaerts is to trade him THIS offseason (if you are sure you are not going to re-sign him) where you can get a strong return for a guy with a year of control. For instance, Jose Iglesias is a free agent this offseason. I don't think I would do this - but if they want to move on from Bogaerts the best time to do it is THIS offseason.

 

 

The Sox could try and trade one year of Bogaerts and see what it’s worth to the loser of the Manny Machado Sweepstakes.

 

Iglesias and Freddy Galvis should both be decent FA replacements who don’t kill the budget, play excellent defense and are both on the good side of 30 (although I hope that’s less relevant and either deal is fairly short). Iglesias might be the better hitter but Galvis is typically healthier and shows up for work with more regularity...

[Kimmi]

I agree totally with this line of thinking. Kimbrel has been an extremely effective closer for us and should be paid as a top of the line closer. Porcello has been an effective starter for us and an innning eater. You can argue whether he is worth over $20 mil per, but the basic concept of starters being worth more than closers makes sense. I think management should have a strategy that is based on some sort of a pyramid pay scheme which fits under the Luxury tax Limit, where starters are higher up on the pyramid than any relievers, even closers.

 

That's all I'm saying.

 

There are better ways to spend that money than on a relief pitcher.

[Kimmi]

Kimbrel is arguably top ten in all time closers. For some reason , some people just don't like him. Although they don't flat out say it , it is apparent when you read the comments. Go figure.

 

Fake news.

 

Not wanting to re-sign him has nothing to do with not liking him.

[Kimmi]

Apparently my "walk list" would be way mopre controversial:

 

1. Porcello

2. Kimbrel

3. Sale

4. Bradley

5. Martinez

6. Bogaerts

7. Betts

 

I doubt anyone else is as willing to let Sale walk as I am. But I think he might be another Price for the Sox - cost roughly $30mill and be a shell of his former self, likely due to his potential for injuries...

 

I'm willing to let Sale walk.

 

Then again, I'm willing to let Betts walk.

[notin]

I'm willing to let Sale walk.

 

Then again, I'm willing to let Betts walk.

 

Sale? Yes. I think he’s a time bomb.

 

But Betts is a special player with a level of talent you rarely see. He’s become the player Bryce Harper was supposed to be...

[Bellhorn04]

Kimbrel is arguably top ten in all time closers. For some reason , some people just don't like him. Although they don't flat out say it , it is apparent when you read the comments. Go figure.

 

Are you talking about negative game thread comments or the arguments about not re-signing him?

[dgalehouse]

Are you talking about negative game thread comments or the arguments about not re-signing him?

 

Mostly the negative game thread posts. And some negative posts on other threads. Some posters have offered legitimate concerns about the wisdom of a huge, long term contract. Others don't put much value on closers in general. But I definitely get the feeling that some just don't care for him for some reason.

[notin]

Mostly the negative game thread posts. And some negative posts on other threads. Some posters have offered legitimate concerns about the wisdom of a huge, long term contract. Others don't put much value on closers in general. But I definitely get the feeling that some just don't care for him for some reason.

 

Well I’m anti-long term contract in many cases and will blatantly tell you the role of closer is overvalued in general. But I still like Kimbrel...

[sk7326]

Apparently my "walk list" would be way mopre controversial:

 

1. Porcello

2. Kimbrel

3. Sale

4. Bradley

5. Martinez

6. Bogaerts

7. Betts

 

I doubt anyone else is as willing to let Sale walk as I am. But I think he might be another Price for the Sox - cost roughly $30mill and be a shell of his former self, likely due to his potential for injuries...

 

Betts is the clear #1, the rest are debatable to some degree or another. Now, as Kimmi notes - there is a walk away price for anybody. At the same time, I like good baseball players and the Red Sox certainly charge you and me enough money that we at least have a reason to demand that the team not skimp on good baseball players.

[dgalehouse]

I would think the Sox are making huge profits this season. How much of it John Henry wants to put back in the roster remains to be seen. He has never been known to pinch pennies when it comes to building a winner. This is a terrific ball club. I would like to see it remain intact as much as possible. But that may not be feasible. We will see what happens.

[sk7326]

I would think the Sox are making huge profits. How much of it John Henry wants to put back in the roster remains to be seen. He has never been known to pinch pennies when it comes to building a winner. This is a terrific ball club. I would like to see it remain intact as much as possible. But that may not be feasible. We will see what happens.

 

ftfy

[moonslav59]

I'm willing to let Sale walk.

 

Then again, I'm willing to let Betts walk.

 

You never wanted Sale in the first place.