The 2018 Bullpen Season Thread

[OH FOY]

29-15 when he was released, 74-32 since.

[notin]

median is a reasonable definition of average ... now if you prefer mean to median in this context is up to you.

 

Median is absolutely not a reasonable definition of average. The two concepts are completely different.

 

The number sets of {1,2,3,10} and {1,2,3,1000000} have the same median. Does that mean they have the approximately the same average?

 

I do get what you're saying, and the use of median might be more appropriate in this case, as there is one certain player (Andrelton Simmons) who is that outlier that significantly influences the average. But if Boagerts is being measured against other shortstops defensively, I think "average" is probably the best way to describe his defense.

 

And all things considered, I think that is a very good thing...

[moonslav59]

He went to the Dodgers on a big Trade was to suppose to be the savior there too, did nothing. Dodgers glad to get rid of him.

 

The Dodgers tried to extend his contract in 2013.

 

They offered him a QO after his last season.

 

You're reaching. Where's the "A-hole" evidence?

[moonslav59]

29-15 when he was released, 74-32 since.

 

Nobody is arguing that HRam is or was a good player this year.

[Slasher9]

He's one 1 WS at what 21 years old, been on good teams since, and never went back. Did he carry the Red Sox like Ortiz? For the big money you paid him.

 

tell me what you think of Ted Williams?

[moonslav59]

tell me what you think of Ted Williams?

 

Nobody re-signed him and he never won a ring, so...

[Slasher9]

also - the Sox released him. its not like he quit.

why the hell would someone who has career earnings of $160MM play an entire season for league minimum for fill in the blank team when he is already getting $22.75MM to hit the beach in DR?

sounds pretty smart to me.

but apparently he is an *******/loser??

[notin]

Nobody re-signed him and he never won a ring, so...

 

And they cut his head off. No one did that to Hanley Ramirez, either...

[notin]

also - the Sox released him. its not like he quit.

why the hell would someone who has career earnings of $160MM play an entire season for league minimum for fill in the blank team when he is already getting $22.75MM to hit the beach in DR?

sounds pretty smart to me.

but apparently he is an *******/loser??

 

Not to mention, he has kids he might like to see a little more often...

[sk7326]

Median is absolutely not a reasonable definition of average. The two concepts are completely different.

 

The number sets of {1,2,3,10} and {1,2,3,1000000} have the same median. Does that mean they have the approximately the same average?

 

I do get what you're saying, and the use of median might be more appropriate in this case, as there is one certain player (Andrelton Simmons) who is that outlier that significantly influences the average. But if Boagerts is being measured against other shortstops defensively, I think "average" is probably the best way to describe his defense.

 

And all things considered, I think that is a very good thing...

 

Mean, median and mode have been used casually as definitions of average ... that is all. I agree with your interpretation of Bogaerts defense - and where median is probably a better baseline than the mean here.

[moonslav59]

And they cut his head off. No one did that to Hanley Ramirez, either...

 

Trying not to laugh so hard I bust a gut!

[moonslav59]

Mean, median and mode have been used casually as definitions of average ... that is all. I agree with your interpretation of Bogaerts defense - and where median is probably a better baseline than the mean here.

 

I'd place Bogey below the mean and average line with other MLB short stops.

 

If someone wants to call him average, I won't argue too much, but I keep hearing people say he's better than average, and I just can't be silent to that.

[Slasher9]

I'd place Bogey below the mean and average line with other MLB short stops.

 

If someone wants to call him average, I won't argue too much, but I keep hearing people say he's better than average, and I just can't be silent to that.

 

do you think with further work he can get better on D?

or do you think he has peaked?

[moonslav59]

do you think with further work he can get better on D?

or do you think he has peaked?

 

This what gets me the most. I kept thinking I saw some improvement, and then the next year he stayed the same or even got worse. He's been yo-yoing. I don't look at UZR/150 until at least half way through a season, unless I'm looking at 2-3 year samples for a discussion. I like to go by what I observe and then look at the numbers to see, if they back up my thoughts. They usually do.

 

Here's how I have viewed his progression:

 

I gave him a pass year 1 & 2, as they jerked him around a little by using him at 3B and then re-signing Drew.

 

He did better year 3 (2015), and I had hopes he'd keep improving. He was plus 2.9 on UZR/150 and just -1 on DRS.

 

He looked worse in 2016, and quite frankly, that pissed me off. I even suggested (again) we move him to 3B. He seemed to improve a little in 2017, but I didn't think he played as well as 2015- better but not his best.

 

He's looked better this year, so it's nice to see 2 years in a row of getting better, but I still only put him slightly better than he looked in 2015, so it's hard to say he's at his best or "peaked" or about to "peak."

 

I'm glad he's gotten better, although the DRS numbers have him at his all time worst (-17) this year).

 

I'm happy with Bogey as our SS. He's hitting great, his defense seems better, and we don't have anybody else, really.

[Slasher9]

i dont disagree with that take at all. i do think his footwork and throwing are better now though. i can see that improving over the next couple years making his overall D better. IMO.

[notin]

Mean, median and mode have been used casually as definitions of average ... that is all. I agree with your interpretation of Bogaerts defense - and where median is probably a better baseline than the mean here.

 

Mean, median and mode are 3 completely different things. Mean is the average, median is the midpoint, and mode is the most common element in a set.

 

So a set of {1,1,2,4,7} has a mean of 3, a median of 2 and a mode of 1.

 

There are certainly reasons to consider the median a baseline I don't disagree with. But I guess I enjoy the occasional math lesson and, maybe I'm getting too much like Bellhorn when it comes to correcting people...

[notin]

I'd place Bogey below the mean and average line with other MLB short stops.

 

If someone wants to call him average, I won't argue too much, but I keep hearing people say he's better than average, and I just can't be silent to that.

 

I think "average" works out well, and has some statistical support. And, as I keep saying, is more than sufficient for him as a player...

[Kimmi]

that ain't happening.

 

I hope you're right.

 

That said, I also hope that the Sox don't hand out insane contract after insane contract just to stay competitive during those 'cliff' years. That would be a recipe for disaster.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi, you are a coupon clippin' penny pincher.

 

Guilty, as charged.

 

It's not just the money (it's not mine, after all), but I just appreciate the under the radar type moves so much more.

[Kimmi]

When Hanley was here he was a hole hahahaha Different kind what I'm thinking.....it starts with a "A". Great move getting rid of that loser.

 

There really is no evidence at all to back this statement up. I was not happy with him being DFA'd, but fortunately, the team did not miss him at all. That doesn't mean that he was a bad person or a bad teammate.

[Kimmi]

How come he is so good, or a great Teammate He isn't resigned at Vet Minimum, it's a steal. You tell me. Isn't JD getting paid less then him or close, how did that work out.

 

My understanding is that this was by his choice.

[Kimmi]

29-15 when he was released, 74-32 since.

 

29-15 is a .659 winning %. It's not exactly like the Sox were struggling.

[Kimmi]

And they cut his head off. No one did that to Hanley Ramirez, either...

 

LOL You crack me up.

[moonslav59]

I think "average" works out well, and has some statistical support. And, as I keep saying, is more than sufficient for him as a player...

 

Can you explain why Bogey is dead last in DRS over the last 2, 3, 4 or 5 years?

[Bellhorn04]

Can you explain why Bogey is dead last in DRS over the last 2, 3, 4 or 5 years?

 

First someone please explain how DRS is calculated. I see that's it a component of UZR. Does it refer to only the more difficult plays?

[sk7326]

I hope you're right.

 

That said, I also hope that the Sox don't hand out insane contract after insane contract just to stay competitive during those 'cliff' years. That would be a recipe for disaster.

 

That ain't happening either. They have significant young talent under pretty good deals for a while. I think the cliff will be something like the Yankees version of it - seasons with hope but a lot of variability. I don't see a scenario where we don't enter the season feeling a playoff spot is an attainable goal. Just like every other year with this ownership.

[Nick]

That ain't happening either. They have significant young talent under pretty good deals for a while. I think the cliff will be something like the Yankees version of it - seasons with hope but a lot of variability. I don't see a scenario where we don't enter the season feeling a playoff spot is an attainable goal. Just like every other year with this ownership.

 

Right. We'll spend $200M+ going forward. No reason we're not competing for playoff spot.

[moonslav59]

That ain't happening either. They have significant young talent under pretty good deals for a while. I think the cliff will be something like the Yankees version of it - seasons with hope but a lot of variability. I don't see a scenario where we don't enter the season feeling a playoff spot is an attainable goal. Just like every other year with this ownership.

 

To me, the cliff is more about not being highly competitive for 1-3 years, and being a bubble playoff team on paper before each season begins.

 

True, spending $200-210M every year should always produce a playoff contender on paper. I will say that this was precisely what Ben did, and he was crucified when the teams fell short-- way short. To think it can't happen again, especially when you look how the Astros, Yankees and Guardians futures look, is missing the big picture, IMO. The M's and A's might stay competitive, too. Other AL teams seem to be retooling and looking to 2020-2022 as a goal.

 

I've never said it will be impossible to rebuild and stay highly competitive, but it is going to be extremely difficult, and we can't miss on almost any move or signing we make. our history of FA signings has not been great, so we're acting like we will magically start getting big signings right from now on.

 

I am certain we will lose at least 2 players from this group and maybe 3:

 

Sale

Bogey

Porcello

Kimbrel

JBJ

 

I'm assuming we keep Betts, Beni, Devers & ERod. That's a nice core when you add 2-3 teams from my list, but with hardly anything looking very promising on the farm, I'm not sure this "core" will be enough. Let's say we keep Sale & Bogey and let Kimbrel, Porcello & JBJ walk. Our budget will be near $200M before we even look to replace the 3 guys we lost.

 

Would we have been highly competitive without Porcello, Kimbrel and JBJ this year?

 

I guess one could argue, yes, but the way posters are talking now on the game threads, it seems like we have little chance of winning this year, as is.

[sk7326]

To me, the cliff is more about not being highly competitive for 1-3 years, and being a bubble playoff team on paper before each season begins.

 

True, spending $200-210M every year should always produce a playoff contender on paper. I will say that this was precisely what Ben did, and he was crucified when the teams fell short-- way short. To think it can't happen again, especially when you look how the Astros, Yankees and Guardians futures look, is missing the big picture, IMO. The M's and A's might stay competitive, too. Other AL teams seem to be retooling and looking to 2020-2022 as a goal.

 

I've never said it will be impossible to rebuild and stay highly competitive, but it is going to be extremely difficult, and we can't miss on almost any move or signing we make. our history of FA signings has not been great, so we're acting like we will magically start getting big signings right from now on.

 

I am certain we will lose at least 2 players from this group and maybe 3:

 

Sale

Bogey

Porcello

Kimbrel

JBJ

 

I'm assuming we keep Betts, Beni, Devers & ERod. That's a nice core when you add 2-3 teams from my list, but with hardly anything looking very promising on the farm, I'm not sure this "core" will be enough. Let's say we keep Sale & Bogey and let Kimbrel, Porcello & JBJ walk. Our budget will be near $200M before we even look to replace the 3 guys we lost.

 

Would we have been highly competitive without Porcello, Kimbrel and JBJ this year?

 

I guess one could argue, yes, but the way posters are talking now on the game threads, it seems like we have little chance of winning this year, as is.

 

It's baseball. If you get to the postseason, you can win the whole thing. If you are FAVORED to win it all, it is more likely than not you will lose. You obviously want to maximize every shot you get because - as the 1975 Sox showed - stuff is flimsy. The Red Sox will always have a high payroll - and fans should demand no less given what they have to pay. The worst case we'll probably get is a season where you come into it with an uncomfortable amount of "maybes". You get seasons like 2012 and 2014 when the maybes don't hit. You get a season like 2013 when they do.

 

When I read fears of a cliff, I read fear of becoming the 2010 Astros or the 1998 Marlins. That is not happening. There WILL be years where the Red Sox will be more impacted by stuff going right or wrong. I cite 2014 or 2015 as examples - teams that were relying on some risks to go well (in those years those risks did not go well).

Edited September 19, 2018 by sk7326

[OH FOY]

Play-offs 3 things, Pitching #1, Defense, and timely hitting. The old simple way works for me.