The 2018 Bullpen Season Thread

[redsoxrules]

Just let porcello walk and resign kimbrel and sale instead. They should be able to manage the rest.

[moonslav59]

JDM's first opt-out comes after 2019 so move him up one line.

 

Done. Thanks.

[moonslav59]

Just let porcello walk and resign kimbrel and sale instead. They should be able to manage the rest.

 

Unless we plan on staying near or going over the max penalty line year after year, we probably can't keep Kimbrel, Sale, JD, Betts and Bogey (JBJ).

 

No Porcello, JBJ, HRam, Pablito, Pom, Kelly, Pearce, Kinsler, Eovaldi, ...

$31M Price

$31M Sale

$31M Betts

$25M Bogey

$25M JDM

$19M Kimbrel

$14M Pedey

 

$176M for just 7 players. Add $15M for player benefits. and we're over $190M with 33 more players to count, including some with rising arb costs, like ERod, Beni & Wright. (Vaz at $4.5)

 

[mvp 78]

Unless we plan on staying near or going over the max penalty line year after year, we probably can't keep Kimbrel, Sale, JD, Betts and Bogey (JBJ).

 

No Porcello, JBJ, HRam, Pablito, Pom, Kelly, Pearce, Kinsler, Eovaldi, ...

$31M Price

$31M Sale

$31M Betts

$25M Bogey

$25M JDM

$19M Kimbrel

$14M Pedey

 

$176M for just 7 players. Add $15M for player benefits. and we're over $190M with 33 more players to count, including some with rising arb costs, like ERod, Beni & Wright. (Vaz at $4.5)

 

 

How about a little doom to go with your gloom?

[Bellhorn04]

How about a little doom to go with your gloom?

 

Those are the facts though. Can't keep all the studs. Keeping half of the studs is probably the best case scenario.

[mvp 78]

Those are the facts though. Can't keep all the studs. Keeping half of the studs is probably the best case scenario.

 

They can keep whoever they want to. If they only keep 1/2, it's because they didn't think it was good value to keep the other 1/2.

[moonslav59]

How about a little doom to go with your gloom?

 

It's reality.

 

I'm not sure I want Henry to be known as the next George Steinbrenner.

 

True, he can afford any budget level with taxes, but that does not mean he will or wants to forever.

[moonslav59]

They can keep whoever they want to. If they only keep 1/2, it's because they didn't think it was good value to keep the other 1/2.

 

It's always a trade-off. There is always some sort of de facto budget line that has a priority.

 

They may love Bogey and think he's worth $27M x 6, but they also may feel spending that money on 3-5 lesser players better suits the team's needs.

[redsoxrules]

Bogey is good dont get me wrong, but he ain't getting 25 Million a year from no one. And I can't see kimbrel getting any more than 14-15. If they also go long years they can get betts and sale for lower aav

[redsoxrules]

Pedey will be coming off the books in a few years too.

[sk7326]

Bogey is good dont get me wrong, but he ain't getting 25 Million a year from no one. And I can't see kimbrel getting any more than 14-15. If they also go long years they can get betts and sale for lower aav

 

Players of his age and ability just don't get to unrestricted free agency. He will have a strong market.

 

I've noted somewhere else - I would not be surprised if Dombrowski ... not SHOP, but let the world know that he won't hang up if they want to talk X. If the Red Sox are not sure they want to resign Bogaerts and want to get something more than a sandwich pick - this offseason is the sweet spot to deal him to get maximum return. I'm not predicting it. I'm not recommending it. But it makes sense given the facts on the ground.

[moonslav59]

Bogey is good dont get me wrong, but he ain't getting 25 Million a year from no one. And I can't see kimbrel getting any more than 14-15. If they also go long years they can get betts and sale for lower aav

 

Chapman got $86M/5 and did not have the numbers Kimbrel has piled up.

 

Jansen got $80M/5 and did not have the numbers Kimbrel has piled up.

 

Bogey may not get $25M, unless he repeats 2018 in 2019, but Betts and Sale might get more than $31M, so call it even.

[moonslav59]

Players of his age and ability just don't get to unrestricted free agency. He will have a strong market.

 

I've noted somewhere else - I would not be surprised if Dombrowski ... not SHOP, but let the world know that he won't hang up if they want to talk X. If the Red Sox are not sure they want to resign Bogaerts and want to get something more than a sandwich pick - this offseason is the sweet spot to deal him to get maximum return. I'm not predicting it. I'm not recommending it. But it makes sense given the facts on the ground.

 

If we win a ring this fall, it has a better chance at happening.

 

It would be ballsy, but in light of all these numbers, I tend to agree that trading Bogey makes the most sense, if we have to trade someone.

 

A lousy QO would hurt.

[sk7326]

They can keep whoever they want to. If they only keep 1/2, it's because they didn't think it was good value to keep the other 1/2.

 

This is right - the budget can always increase ... and the team's revenue and profitability has never been an issue. When you are a legacy franchise, a landmark ballpark you own, a crappy cable channel you mostly own - really not keeping a guy comes down to it being a bad baseball move, or Henry wanting another plane.

[moonslav59]

There is a limit to spending, otherwise, Henry would just sign everybody that would help.

 

We've stuck around the luxury tax threshold for many years. This is the first time we've gone anywhere near $40M over. I wouldn't count on that continuing.

 

Even the Dodger and Yankess reset their tax. We will, someday, too.

[Bellhorn04]

They can keep whoever they want to. If they only keep 1/2, it's because they didn't think it was good value to keep the other 1/2.

 

You can't keep everyone because the taxes and surcharges are there to ensure that after a certain spending level, you cannot get value for your money, because you're paying up to double the market price.

[Bellhorn04]

To clarify that, if you have a payroll for tax purposes of say 250 million a couple of years in a row, every incremental dollar of salary will actually cost you $1.95. 50% tax plus a 45% surcharge.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bogey is good dont get me wrong, but he ain't getting 25 Million a year from no one. And I can't see kimbrel getting any more than 14-15. If they also go long years they can get betts and sale for lower aav

 

You’re way off. Bogaerts is a rare, young talent capable of playing a premium defensive position at least at an above average level while maintaining a middle of the order offensive profile. $25 mil will likely be a low estimate.

 

Kimbrel is the best closer in baseball. He’s going to reset the market. He will top Davis and Chapman. My guess is a 5 yr $100 mil contract

[iortiz]

You’re way off. Bogaerts is a rare, young talent capable of playing a premium defensive position at least at an above average level while maintaining a middle of the order offensive profile. $25 mil will likely be a low estimate.

 

Kimbrel is the best closer in baseball. He’s going to reset the market. He will top Davis and Chapman. My guess is a 5 yr $100 mil contract

Well, if you put it that way, I feel even more comfortable to win it all this year.

[moonslav59]

You’re way off. Bogaerts is a rare, young talent capable of playing a premium defensive position at least at an above average level while maintaining a middle of the order offensive profile. $25 mil will likely be a low estimate.

 

Kimbrel is the best closer in baseball. He’s going to reset the market. He will top Davis and Chapman. My guess is a 5 yr $100 mil contract

 

Bogey is not above average on defense.

 

He's dead last in DRS and middle of the pack on UZR/150.

[mvp 78]

It's reality.

 

I'm not sure I want Henry to be known as the next George Steinbrenner.

 

True, he can afford any budget level with taxes, but that does not mean he will or wants to forever.

 

"Reality"

[mvp 78]

Bogey is not above average on defense.

 

He's dead last in DRS and middle of the pack on UZR/150.

 

10th in DWAR out of 22 SS. By the definition you've used previously, that's above average.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, if you put it that way, I feel even more comfortable to win it all this year.

 

You’ve got two years to win a title. Good luck

[notin]

10th in DWAR out of 22 SS. By the definition you've used previously, that's above average.

 

1. Is that column actually dWAR? It's just labeled "Def". I always though it was some sort of calculated run differential, given the numbers involved in the don't always correlate so well with the WAR values. Not really much of a counterpoint, I was just wondering.

 

2. That's actually not how average works. Just being 10th of 22 doesn't necessarily make you "above average." In this case, the average value in that DEF comumn is 7.8, so Bogaerts is right on the cusp, being the top name above the delimiting line. But given margin of error, he is probably about average. But if the 9 names above his all were credited with a total of one more point each - something completely independent of Bogaerts' fielding - Bogaerts would actually be below the calculated average. Would that make him "below average"?

 

Really, if we have legitmate arguments for him being above average and below average, he is probably about average. And with his offense, that is more than acceptable...

[sk7326]

1. Is that column actually dWAR? It's just labeled "Def". I always though it was some sort of calculated run differential, given the numbers involved in the don't always correlate so well with the WAR values. Not really much of a counterpoint, I was just wondering.

 

2. That's actually not how average works. Just being 10th of 22 doesn't necessarily make you "above average." In this case, the average value in that DEF comumn is 7.8, so Bogaerts is right on the cusp, being the top name above the delimiting line. But given margin of error, he is probably about average. But if the 9 names above his all were credited with a total of one more point each - something completely independent of Bogaerts' fielding - Bogaerts would actually be below the calculated average. Would that make him "below average"?

 

Really, if we have legitmate arguments for him being above average and below average, he is probably about average. And with his offense, that is more than acceptable...

 

median is a reasonable definition of average ... now if you prefer mean to median in this context is up to you.

[moonslav59]

10th in DWAR out of 22 SS. By the definition you've used previously, that's above average.

 

1) I make the sample size small enough to get to the top 30.

2) I don't just look at UZR/150, and when I do, I value 3 years over one most recent.

3) I also look at DRS, which has Bogey dead last in any sample size you choose to use.

 

To me, put it all together, and the numbers say, "Below average." That happens to jive with my own personal observations, as well.

 

I also do not see the defensive "improvement" many speak of.

[sk7326]

It's reality.

 

I'm not sure I want Henry to be known as the next George Steinbrenner.

 

True, he can afford any budget level with taxes, but that does not mean he will or wants to forever.

 

*NARRATOR* He was already

[jacksonianmarch]

1) I make the sample size small enough to get to the top 30.

2) I don't just look at UZR/150, and when I do, I value 3 years over one most recent.

3) I also look at DRS, which has Bogey dead last in any sample size you choose to use.

 

To me, put it all together, and the numbers say, "Below average." That happens to jive with my own personal observations, as well.

 

I also do not see the defensive "improvement" many speak of.

 

Let's put it this way, can he adequately defend a premium defensive position or is he a liability? I think all the numbers come together to show a positive defensive WAR, which portends to above replacement level ability. Maybe that is below average, maybe it isn't, but I do think his agent and the league see Bogey as at least an adequate defender at SS. He will have a leg up on Machado in that regard. Machado wants to be a SS, but his defensive metrics as a SS are bad (-8 UZR/150). Machado is about to be paid handsomely, likely setting a record for an infielder. Bogaerts will be able to show he's a better defender. Also, the age difference for FA wont be extreme either as Machado is older than Bogey, and by the time his first game of his new contract is played, Bogey will be 9 months older than Machado will be next year. The other interesting thing is Bogey's OPS would have been Machado's career high coming into this season, so it isn't like he cant swing it. Manny is just going nuclear in his contract year, which is great for him. Ultimately, I think the similarities will be there and I expect Bogey to get close to what Manny gets

[Slasher9]

How about a little doom to go with your gloom?

 

the CLIFF is REAL

[jacksonianmarch]

the CLIFF is REAL

 

It's real for every team to be totally honest. You can prop up a cliff with cash, but eventually you tumble down. With the economic penalties as they are now, cliffs are inevitable for all franchises