The 2018 Bullpen Season Thread

[notin]

I doubt the Sox even add a closer. Kelly or Thornburg likely take the role with the other doing setup.

 

Its too early to fill out th he rest of the names in the bullpen right now, but of the candidates are already here.

[notin]

4/65 is reasonable.

 

The future of this team is Betts, not Kimbrel. Every big contract added over the next couple of seasons makes it more likely Betts walks away when his time is due. ..

[Bellhorn04]

The future of this team is Betts, not Kimbrel. Every big contract added over the next couple of seasons makes it more likely Betts walks away when his time is due. ..

 

I don't disagree.

[Station 13]

The future of this team is Betts, not Kimbrel. Every big contract added over the next couple of seasons makes it more likely Betts walks away when his time is due. ..

 

if Mookie walks, that would be his choice. No reason this team can't keep him.

[mvp 78]

if Mookie walks, that would be his choice. No reason this team can't keep him.

 

Yup. It’s on ownership if he’s not a lifetime Red Sox.

[Emp9]

2018-2019 Free Agent Relief Pitchers:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There definitely are options this upcoming Off-Season. My position is (and always has been) that signing Betts long term is the only true priority. If signing a Closer to big money hampers that in any way then I’m not a big fan of it.

[moonslav59]

If Joe keeps doing what he's been doing keeping him is a no-brainer. He found his stride ever since he plunked Austin....

 

Actually, he found his stride right after game 1.

 

12 straight games with no ERs allowed.

 

13 IP

 

6 Hits

 

1 BB

 

13 Ks

 

That's a WHIP of .538-- better than Uehara's record shattering .565 WHIP in 2013.

 

Granted, the sample size is small, but he's been on a great roll.

[dgalehouse]

The future of this team is Betts, not Kimbrel. Every big contract added over the next couple of seasons makes it more likely Betts walks away when his time is due. ..

 

Mookie Betts is a bona-fide superstar. One of the very best . It is going to cost plenty to sign him long term. Plenty. The Sox are as capable of doing that as anyone. However , you still need a team around him. You can't just go cheap everywhere else in order to afford him.

[moonslav59]

Mookie Betts is a bona-fide superstar. One of the very best . It is going to cost plenty to sign him long term. Plenty. The Sox are as capable of doing that as anyone. However , you still need a team around him. You can't just go cheap everywhere else in order to afford him.

 

Price's contract is going to make it hard to spend $65M+ on 2 players. That's about 30% of the payroll budget on just 2 players!

 

Still, we have to keep Betts.

[Station 13]

If Joe keeps doing what he's been doing keeping him is a no-brainer. He found his stride ever since he plunked Austin....

 

Actually, he found his stride right after game 1.

 

12 straight games with no ERs allowed.

 

13 IP

 

6 Hits

 

1 BB

 

13 Ks

 

That's a WHIP of .538-- better than Uehara's record shattering .565 WHIP in 2013.

 

Granted, the sample size is small, but he's been on a great roll.

and Tonight 2 HUGE strikeout. He's been great.

[moonslav59]

and Tonight 2 HUGE strikeout. He's been great.

 

He's also our "enforcer."

[oldtimer]

He's also our "enforcer."

 

Last night E-Rod got hit but the BP came through in a big way. Great for them, although Kelly and Kimbrel have been the strength of the pen. Our lineup did it again with always some of our main guys coming through.

[notin]

if Mookie walks, that would be his choice. No reason this team can't keep him.

 

Not if the Sox pay too many other players too much money.

 

 

They have a big budget, but not an unlimited budget...

[Kimmi]

Not if the Sox pay too many other players too much money.

 

They have a big budget, but not an unlimited budget...

 

The Sox can afford to sign and keep whoever they want to. The problem is, however, they are not going to do that.

 

It should be clear by now that while these owners are not cheapskates, but they are also not reckless in terms of payroll. We have a pretty good sense that they will spend right around the luxury tax limit and will not spend so much as to incur the heavy penalties.

[notin]

If Joe keeps doing what he's been doing keeping him is a no-brainer. He found his stride ever since he plunked Austin....

 

Actually, he found his stride right after game 1.

 

12 straight games with no ERs allowed.

 

13 IP

 

6 Hits

 

1 BB

 

13 Ks

 

That's a WHIP of .538-- better than Uehara's record shattering .565 WHIP in 2013.

 

Granted, the sample size is small, but he's been on a great roll.

 

Remember after opening day when everyone wanted him gone?

[moonslav59]

The Sox can afford to sign and keep whoever they want to. The problem is, however, they are not going to do that.

 

It should be clear by now that while these owners are not cheapskates, but they are also not reckless in terms of payroll. We have a pretty good sense that they will spend right around the luxury tax limit and will not spend so much as to incur the heavy penalties.

 

The heavy penalty is at $40M over the limit, so one could argue that being just under is pretty close to "reckless" already. We are just under that number now.

 

I could see us staying $35-39M below the max penalty line through the "window" period.

 

That is still not going to be enough to keep everybody important. HRam's option is going to prevent us from keeping Pom or Kimbrel, and the next year will bring similar choices.

 

I do feel going over the $40M mark would be a bit reckless and would give our team the reputation as being the "New Yankees or Dodgers".

[moonslav59]

Remember after opening day when everyone wanted him gone?

 

Not "everyone", but your point is well taken.

[Larry Cook]

The heavy penalty is at $40M over the limit, so one could argue that being just under is pretty close to "reckless" already. We are just under that number now.

 

I could see us staying $35-39M below the max penalty line through the "window" period.

 

That is still not going to be enough to keep everybody important. HRam's option is going to prevent us from keeping Pom or Kimbrel, and the next year will bring similar choices.

 

I do feel going over the $40M mark would be a bit reckless and would give our team the reputation as being the "New Yankees or Dodgers".

 

Can we really afford to keep either one? I can’t see it unless we trade some salary.

[jacksonianmarch]

Can we really afford to keep either one? I can’t see it unless we trade some salary.

 

If HanRam's option vests, you cannot afford to keep either without jumping over the final threshold unless you deal from your current team's salary.

[moonslav59]

2019 in $'s

 

31 Price

22 JDM

22 HRam (vest)

21 Porcello (last control year)

14 Pedey

13 Sale

7 Moreland

4 Nunez

5 Vaz______

~140 Total under contract

 

ARBs Estimated

17 Betts (2nd of 3rd: $10.5 this year)

12 Bogaerts (3 of 3: 7.1)

8 JBJ (3 of 4: 6.1)

4 ERod (2 of 4: 2.4)

2 Thornburg (3 of 3: 2)

1 Smith (2 of 3: .8)

1 Wright (2 of 3: 1.1)

1 Barnes (1 of 3)

1 Hembree (1 of 3)____

~$47M Arb players

 

Expendable:

2.5 Holt (3 of 3: 2.2)

2.0 Leon (3 of 4: 2.0)

1.0 Swihart (1 of 4)

 

FA

12.5 Kimbrel

8.5 Pom

3.8 Kelly

 

That's about $187M on 18 players. Add about $13M for the other 22 players and we're at about $200M for 40 players (no Holt, Leon or Swihart. No Pom, Kimbrel or Kelly. Add $14M for player benefits and $18M for Pablito, and we;re at $232M.

 

The 2019 threshold will be $206M. That puts us over by about $26M by my calculations. If we want to go right up to $40M line, we'll have close to $14M to spend on keeping 1 from Pom, Kimbrel or Kelly. It does look like we can't keep Kimbrel or Pom as long as HRam vests. We can keep Kelly, Holt, Leon and Swihart, and maybe add a $3M player. That's it.

 

If HRam does not vest, we'll have close to $36M to spend. With that money we might be able to keep Pom & Kimbrel and certainly Kelly and one from Pom/Kimbrel.

 

 

 

 

[OH FOY]

Went to PawSox game today, talking to others about Thornburg, he's hitting 97 down there, and looking very good, so far. Edited May 6, 2018 by OH FOY!

[jacksonianmarch]

2019 in $'s

 

31 Price

22 JDM

22 HRam (vest)

21 Porcello (last control year)

14 Pedey

13 Sale

7 Moreland

4 Nunez

5 Vaz______

~140 Total under contract

 

ARBs Estimated

17 Betts (2nd of 3rd: $10.5 this year)

12 Bogaerts (3 of 3: 7.1)

8 JBJ (3 of 4: 6.1)

4 ERod (2 of 4: 2.4)

2 Thornburg (3 of 3: 2)

1 Smith (2 of 3: .8)

1 Wright (2 of 3: 1.1)

1 Barnes (1 of 3)

1 Hembree (1 of 3)____

~$47M Arb players

 

Expendable:

2.5 Holt (3 of 3: 2.2)

2.0 Leon (3 of 4: 2.0)

1.0 Swihart (1 of 4)

 

FA

12.5 Kimbrel

8.5 Pom

3.8 Kelly

 

That's about $187M on 18 players. Add about $13M for the other 22 players and we're at about $200M for 40 players (no Holt, Leon or Swihart. No Pom, Kimbrel or Kelly. Add $14M for player benefits and $18M for Pablito, and we;re at $232M.

 

The 2019 threshold will be $206M. That puts us over by about $26M by my calculations. If we want to go right up to $40M line, we'll have close to $14M to spend on keeping 1 from Pom, Kimbrel or Kelly. It does look like we can't keep Kimbrel or Pom as long as HRam vests. We can keep Kelly, Holt, Leon and Swihart, and maybe add a $3M player. That's it.

 

If HRam does not vest, we'll have close to $36M to spend. With that money we might be able to keep Pom & Kimbrel and certainly Kelly and one from Pom/Kimbrel.

 

 

 

 

 

I think your arb estimates may be a bit low. Final seasons are usually market value and if Bogaerts continues to massacre the ball, he will be more in the $15 mil range. I also foresee Bradley not sucking for the whole year. If he is a .750OPS player by years end, he will crack $10 mil. Betts should be right on especially since he is looking like an MVP candidate right now. Even with the $47 mil from Pablo, Moreland and Hanley coming off the books, the sox need to avoid long term deals next offseason. This year, you lose Kimbrel and Pom. You could find a cheaper version to close if need be and Pom looks pretty bad right now, so you might not be missing much. Next season, you will have to decide on Sale and Bogaerts. If Bogey keeps playing like he has been, then he is pricing himself into the elite category, near the $25 mil AAV club. Sale will clearly look to exceed Price's record as well. You might have some cash to spend for minor upgrades, but you wont be able to lock in anyone for more than 1 season.

Edited May 6, 2018 by jacksonianmarch

[moonslav59]

I think your arb estimates may be a bit low. Final seasons are usually market value and if Bogaerts continues to massacre the ball, he will be more in the $15 mil range. I also foresee Bradley not sucking for the whole year. If he is a .750OPS player by years end, he will crack $10 mil. Betts should be right on especially since he is looking like an MVP candidate right now. Even with the $47 mil from Pablo, Moreland and Hanley coming off the books, the sox need to avoid long term deals next offseason. This year, you lose Kimbrel and Pom. You could find a cheaper version to close if need be and Pom looks pretty bad right now, so you might not be missing much. Next season, you will have to decide on Sale and Bogaerts. If Bogey keeps playing like he has been, then he is pricing himself into the elite category, near the $25 mil AAV club. Sale will clearly look to exceed Price's record as well. You might have some cash to spend for minor upgrades, but you wont be able to lock in anyone for more than 1 season.

 

So, if Bogey & JBJ make $4M more (combined) than my projections, we'll have about $10M to spend or $32M, if HRam does not vest.

 

Unless we lose HRam, we probably can't sign Pom or Kimbrel. I guess we could trade JBJ or some other big contract to free up enough to keep one.

[oldtimer]

So, if Bogey & JBJ make $4M more (combined) than my projections, we'll have about $10M to spend or $32M, if HRam does not vest.

 

Unless we lose HRam, we probably can't sign Pom or Kimbrel. I guess we could trade JBJ or some other big contract to free up enough to keep one.

 

At the current rate of Hanleys PA's he will hit 562 and vest. Unless he has injury time off he is going to be back. The choices of losing a couple of lower performing players is only going to free up a small amount. We have to go for it this year and maybe suck it up next year and do the best we can within the limits of a realistic budget. It won't be until 2020 that we could free up the Pable and Hanley salaries.

 

Bad decisions made on player contracts have left us in the situation that is not readily solvable. I think we monitor the performance of JBJ and other players and decide who we can lose and who we get to keep at the end of the season.

[moonslav59]

At the current rate of Hanleys PA's he will hit 562 and vest. Unless he has injury time off he is going to be back. The choices of losing a couple of lower performing players is only going to free up a small amount. We have to go for it this year and maybe suck it up next year and do the best we can within the limits of a realistic budget. It won't be until 2020 that we could free up the Pable and Hanley salaries.

 

Bad decisions made on player contracts have left us in the situation that is not readily solvable. I think we monitor the performance of JBJ and other players and decide who we can lose and who we get to keep at the end of the season.

 

Things won't get better in 2020, despite losing Pablito's contract. Just keeping Sale will take a $20M raise.

[jacksonianmarch]

At the current rate of Hanleys PA's he will hit 562 and vest. Unless he has injury time off he is going to be back. The choices of losing a couple of lower performing players is only going to free up a small amount. We have to go for it this year and maybe suck it up next year and do the best we can within the limits of a realistic budget. It won't be until 2020 that we could free up the Pable and Hanley salaries.

 

Bad decisions made on player contracts have left us in the situation that is not readily solvable. I think we monitor the performance of JBJ and other players and decide who we can lose and who we get to keep at the end of the season.

 

You don't have a choice but to go for it. You have guys coming to the end of their arb times or contracts who are about to get paid and not a single option to replace them. Allowing Cora to use Hanley enough to vest really hurts you next year. Having contracts on the books for poorly performing players hurts as does having contracts for guys not on the roster. The team you have now is very good, world series level good. But you have peaked in terms of ability to add. Now, you can only hope to keep the band together. If Hanley vests, that will be impossible for 2019

[Natick to NC]

Personally at this point ...id give significant at bats to Swihart and Let Hanley sit after the NY series ...I would not let it vest now and I was one who wanted the guy to vest .The bat swing is long he very rarely squares up balls anymore ...Hanley to me is a number 6 hitter at best now.... Mookie ,X ,JD,Devers ,Pedey ,Hanley ,? The guy is average at best now ....Give Swihart a real rotation ..personally if I'm managing Devers moves to 1b Nuney goes to 3b and Swihart and JD switch time at DH and LF Mitch plays 1b and DH backup ....Hanley gets froze out .I do not have faith in Hanley Ramirez anylonger . Edited May 7, 2018 by Natick to NC

[harmony]

Personally at this point ...id give significant at bats to Swihart and Let Hanley sit after the NY series ...I would not let it vest now and I was one who wanted the guy to vest .The bat swing is long he very rarely squares up balls anymore ...Hanley to me is a number 6 hitter at best now.... Mookie ,X ,JD,Devers ,Pedey ,Hanley ,? The guy is average at best now ....Give Swihart a real rotation ..personally if I'm managing Devers moves to 1b Nuney goes to 3b and Swihart and JD switch time at DH and LF Mitch plays 1b and DH backup ....Hanley gets froze out .I do not have faith in Hanley Ramirez anylonger .

ZiPS. Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project rest-of-season wRC+ of 105, 111 and 108 for Hanley Ramirez and 60, 70 and 65 for Blake Swihart:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8001&position=SS

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

[moonslav59]

You don't have a choice but to go for it. You have guys coming to the end of their arb times or contracts who are about to get paid and not a single option to replace them. Allowing Cora to use Hanley enough to vest really hurts you next year. Having contracts on the books for poorly performing players hurts as does having contracts for guys not on the roster. The team you have now is very good, world series level good. But you have peaked in terms of ability to add. Now, you can only hope to keep the band together. If Hanley vests, that will be impossible for 2019

 

While we might not be able to add much in the next two years with spending, we could lose Pom & Kimbrel and still be pretty good, assuming we get healthier than this year and/or maybe guys like Velazquez, Poyner and _____ step in.

 

We've basically played all this year without Thornburg, Pedey and Marco. I'm sure injuries will happen next year, too, but we might be able to be "as good" in 2019.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, I disagree. Talk to me at the end of the season. You don’t watch the best closer in baseball walk as well as a capable starter and stay as good. You’re hoping that Thornberg can be good again, but that surgery is a mixed bag. Smith hasn’t looked good in his return from surgery either. You might need to pay a premium to keep Kelly and let Kimbrel walk and hope for the best.