The Alex Cora Managerial Decision Thread

[S5Dewey]

Agree JBJ makes a difference in the OF, especially in comparison to Beni.

 

And Beni is supposedly the best we've got to take his place - unless we move Mookie to C.F. & Beni to RF.

Does anyone here want to see that???

Edited April 8, 2018 by S5Dewey

[Natick to NC]

There were at least three plays that Beni didn't make today that JBJ would have either made or had a good shot at making and at least two of them led to the Rays scoring runs. I don't want to hear any more of that crap about how moving Beni to CF isn't going to make that much of a difference.

Yes, the Sox won today but they're not going to be playing the Rays every day and every run saved against those other teams is going to count.

 

I'm not one to dump on a manger BUT if I see that defensive OF out there again I may change my policy on that. Today's win does not justify having that outfield (read JDM) out there. JDM is shaky in LF and I've seen JBJ play and Beni is no JBJ.

Spot on post ...JBJ path to the ball is effortless and precise ..To see a player like Benny look mundane there after JBJ says all that needs to be said ...JBJ is the best CF we could have ever created defensively .

Edited April 8, 2018 by Natick to NC

[Natick to NC]

There were at least three plays that Beni didn't make today that JBJ would have either made or had a good shot at making and at least two of them led to the Rays scoring runs. I don't want to hear any more of that crap about how moving Beni to CF isn't going to make that much of a difference.

Yes, the Sox won today but they're not going to be playing the Rays every day and every run saved against those other teams is going to count.

 

I'm not one to dump on a manger BUT if I see that defensive OF out there again I may change my policy on that. Today's win does not justify having that outfield (read JDM) out there. JDM is shaky in LF and I've seen JBJ play and Beni is no JBJ.

Spot on post ...JBJ path to the ball is effortless and precise ..

[Kimmi]

Ball changes? How many balls does a champion professional bowler use? They get sufficient reps with each of their balls so that it is not a problem. Also if they Bowl 5-6 games on a lane in a day, there is no variation in the lane or other external factors. The reason why the bowler doesn’t bowl a 300 in every game with his highly repeatable skill is that he is human and that his performance (although refined enough to reach the professional level) still varies. When a professional bowler leaves the 7 or the 10, he doesn’t bemoan his bad luck. He knows that his ball needs to be an inch or two in one direction or the other. Only the amateurs whine about luck. The professionals know that they didn’t throw the exact same ball that gave them a strike.

 

Similarly, teams that win more close than they lose is attributable to individual and collective skill. Your assertion that it is the product of random luck is bogus. The outcomes appear to be random when viewed as data, but the game is not played by data or chance rolls of the dice. The game is played by humans at a high skill level and skill is the major determining factor. Sorry, but it is instances like this where you sabremetrician wannabes go off the rails into crazy town. It makes it hard to take any of you seriously.

 

As I said, you have a lot to learn about bowling. You are way off base with your bowling post.

 

So don't respond to me if you can't take me seriously.

 

That's your defense every time you are losing a debate.

[S5Dewey]

As I said, you have a lot to learn about ....... You are way off base with your bowling post.

 

So don't respond to me if you can't take me seriously.

 

That's your defense every time you are losing a debate.

 

And this is your defense every time someone has the temerity to disagree with you. My God.. is there ANYTHING you don't profess to be an expert in???

[Thunder]

There were at least three plays that Beni didn't make today that JBJ would have either made or had a good shot at making and at least two of them led to the Rays scoring runs. I don't want to hear any more of that crap about how moving Beni to CF isn't going to make that much of a difference.

Yes, the Sox won today but they're not going to be playing the Rays every day and every run saved against those other teams is going to count.

 

I'm not one to dump on a manger BUT if I see that defensive OF out there again I may change my policy on that. Today's win does not justify having that outfield (read JDM) out there. JDM is shaky in LF and I've seen JBJ play and Beni is no JBJ.

 

I totally agree with you, but I respect Cora's determination to work in off days. Yes, they haven't made much sense so far. Mookie sat on Tuesday, right before an off day, and JBJ sat today, before an off day, but I think it will go a long way toward keeping our guys in peak form well into October. Also, JBJ has been in a little of a funk. I think today was strategically planned, given the caliber of the Rays, a team we were more likely to get away with it against.

[cp176]

As I said, you have a lot to learn about bowling. You are way off base with your bowling post.

 

So don't respond to me if you can't take me seriously.

 

That's your defense every time you are losing a debate.

 

It sounds to me as though he is taking you very seriously.

[Spudboy]

And this is your defense every time someone has the temerity to disagree with you. My God.. is there ANYTHING you don't profess to be an expert in???

 

lol

[notin]

So is this idea finally put to rest?

 

The Sox can certainly put together a good team without JBJ. But they have a better one with him...

[moonslav59]

Spot on post ...JBJ path to the ball is effortless and precise ..To see a player like Benny look mundane there after JBJ says all that needs to be said ...JBJ is the best CF we could have ever created defensively .

 

I actually think JBJ loses some points on metric defense by making plays look effortless and taking direct routes to balls hit away from him. (Yes, I just critized UZR/150- something I use a lot.)

[moonslav59]

So is this idea finally put to rest?

 

The Sox can certainly put together a good team without JBJ. But they have a better one with him...

 

...until he goes oh for 14.

[cp176]

And Beni is supposedly the best we've got to take his place - unless we move Mookie to C.F. & Beni to RF.

Does anyone here want to see that???

 

SS - the way our team is currently constructed, there is no question in my mind that JBJ is the guy we want in centerfield. I 'm actually very content with him out there if the team hits but I think that I am missing something because I don't see his skill set as being non-replaceable. If he stays in Boston, I'm fine with that but if somewhere down the road the decision was made to trade him for an overall all upgrade, I'd be fine with that too.

[S5Dewey]

SS - the way our team is currently constructed, there is no question in my mind that JBJ is the guy we want in centerfield. I 'm actually very content with him out there if the team hits but I think that I am missing something because I don't see his skill set as being non-replaceable. If he stays in Boston, I'm fine with that but if somewhere down the road the decision was made to trade him for an overall all upgrade, I'd be fine with that too.

 

At the end of the day everyone is replaceable. It's just a matter of how much we're willing to give up to replace him. I saw what the outfield looks like without JBJ in it yesterday and I didn't like it one bit.

 

It's not the person who's being replaced - it's the skills. I've always been a big fan of "solid up the middle" defensively and right now JBJ is the best 'up the middle' defensive player on the team. When combined with Mookie I believe we may have the best CF/RF duo in baseball in a park that demands that. Sure, if we could replace JBJ with guys like Pillar or Keirmeyer I'd be willing to do that but those guys aren't available and if they were we couldn't afford to pay them.

 

I tend to look at the JBJ & his offense thing this way: Catchers are notoriously poor hitters - and yes there are exceptions, and these exceptions prove how bad everyone else is - but we currently have a catcher who's a better-than-average hitter (for catchers). That allows us to keep a CF who's below average offensively for his position and do it on the basis of his defense.

 

Besides, it's not like we're asking these guys to fill the #3 hole in the order. They're hitting at the bottom, for Pete's sake.

[Hitch]

And this is your defense every time someone has the temerity to disagree with you. My God.. is there ANYTHING you don't profess to be an expert in???

 

Amusingly enough, that's the exact thing I was thinking reading A700's post.

[Bellhorn04]

Here are some interesting numbers on the 1-run game thing.

 

Red Sox championship seasons:

 

2004 1-run games 16-18 .471 other games 82-46 .641

2007 1-run games 22-28 .440 other games 74-38 .661

2013 1-run games 21-21 .500 other games 76-44 .633

 

Which certainly supports the idea that your record in 1-run games in itself means jacksquat...

[moonslav59]

At the end of the day everyone is replaceable. It's just a matter of how much we're willing to give up to replace him. I saw what the outfield looks like without JBJ in it yesterday and I didn't like it one bit.

 

It's not the person who's being replaced - it's the skills. I've always been a big fan of "solid up the middle" defensively and right now JBJ is the best 'up the middle' defensive player on the team. When combined with Mookie I believe we may have the best CF/RF duo in baseball in a park that demands that. Sure, if we could replace JBJ with guys like Pillar or Keirmeyer I'd be willing to do that but those guys aren't available and if they were we couldn't afford to pay them.

 

I tend to look at the JBJ & his offense thing this way: Catchers are notoriously poor hitters - and yes there are exceptions, and these exceptions prove how bad everyone else is - but we currently have a catcher who's a better-than-average hitter (for catchers). That allows us to keep a CF who's below average offensively for his position and do it on the basis of his defense.

 

Besides, it's not like we're asking these guys to fill the #3 hole in the order. They're hitting at the bottom, for Pete's sake.

 

Well said, especially the bolded in red parts.

 

It's like our park was built for JBJ and Betts.

 

I also think by the end of the year, JBJ's OPS will be over .725 and probably closer to .750 to .775.

[moonslav59]

Here are some interesting numbers on the 1-run game thing.

 

Red Sox championship seasons:

 

2004 1-run games 16-18 .471 other games 82-46 .641

2007 1-run games 22-28 .440 other games 74-38 .661

2013 1-run games 21-21 .500 other games 76-44 .633

 

Which certainly supports the idea that your record in 1-run games in itself means jacksquat...

 

And the idea that winning more close games shows the "grit" a team needs to win championships is maybe not true.

[cp176]

And the idea that winning more close games shows the "grit" a team needs to win championships is maybe not true.

 

It certainly seems as though if you pick the right years necessary to prove your point, anything can be quantified can't it. Obviously the players who play, the coaches who coach, and the old fans who still believe that better teams tend to be more successful in close contests than their lesser opponents just don't get it. lol - too stubborn to change our thinking I guess. I wonder if it is still ok for us to believe and maybe even talk about such things? A little sarcasm there but just trying to add a little humor.

[cp176]

At the end of the day everyone is replaceable. It's just a matter of how much we're willing to give up to replace him. I saw what the outfield looks like without JBJ in it yesterday and I didn't like it one bit.

 

It's not the person who's being replaced - it's the skills. I've always been a big fan of "solid up the middle" defensively and right now JBJ is the best 'up the middle' defensive player on the team. When combined with Mookie I believe we may have the best CF/RF duo in baseball in a park that demands that. Sure, if we could replace JBJ with guys like Pillar or Keirmeyer I'd be willing to do that but those guys aren't available and if they were we couldn't afford to pay them.

 

I tend to look at the JBJ & his offense thing this way: Catchers are notoriously poor hitters - and yes there are exceptions, and these exceptions prove how bad everyone else is - but we currently have a catcher who's a better-than-average hitter (for catchers). That allows us to keep a CF who's below average offensively for his position and do it on the basis of his defense.

 

Besides, it's not like we're asking these guys to fill the #3 hole in the order. They're hitting at the bottom, for Pete's sake.

 

I was talking about his skills not the person. I believe exactly what you believe - defense up the middle is vital and we do need that good fielding centerfielder at present - made more obvious by what is so going on around second and short. I get your point. At some point in his career though, if he doesn't hit and he wants a contract that seems a little high, I think that JBJ is certainly replaceable. At the present time of course we need the guy. I'm not advocating to dump him now but I don't see him as being vital to this team's success either.

[Maxbialystock]

Re: the discussion about JBJ.

 

Cora is clearly experimenting, which he said he would to before the season started. Plus we are 9 games into a 162 game season, we are 8-1, and these experiments have demonstrably not prevented us from winning games. They have, on the other hand, given Cora an eyeful of what Beni can do in CF and JD in LF and RF. That can't be all bad.

Edited April 9, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

It certainly seems as though if you pick the right years necessary to prove your point, anything can be quantified can't it. Obviously the players who play, the coaches who coach, and the old fans who still believe that better teams tend to be more successful in close contests than their lesser opponents just don't get it. lol - too stubborn to change our thinking I guess. I wonder if it is still ok for us to believe and maybe even talk about such things? A little sarcasm there but just trying to add a little humor.

 

I get it.

 

Three seasons of Sox championships proves nothing. It could just be random (maybe a bad choice of words in light of recent discussions) bad luck.

 

Just win, baby!

 

By 1 or 4 is fine with me.

[cp176]

I get it.

 

Three seasons of Sox championships proves nothing. It could just be random (maybe a bad choice of words in light of recent discussions) bad luck.

 

Just win, baby!

 

By 1 or 4 is fine with me.

 

What, we won in those years? I take everything I said bacK. I'm a historian of sorts but I'm a proud believer in the theory of what have you done for me lately as well. Pretty soon Moon they will have to enlarge those dugouts to accommodate all of the analytic guys and gals. Cora's head might explode.

[Bellhorn04]

Re: the discussion about JBJ.

 

Cora is clearly experimenting, which he said he would to before the season started. Plus we are 9 games into a 162 game season, we are 8-1, and these experiments have demonstrably not prevented us from winning games. They have, on the other hand, given Cora an eyeful of what Beni can do in CF and JD in LF and RF. That can't be all bad.

 

+1 Max

[moonslav59]

What, we won in those years? I take everything I said bacK. I'm a historian of sorts but I'm a proud believer in the theory of what have you done for me lately as well. Pretty soon Moon they will have to enlarge those dugouts to accommodate all of the analytic guys and gals. Cora's head might explode.

 

I wasn't being sarcastic. I really do not put much emphasis on a cherry-picked 3 season sample size, even though it seemingly supports my position.

[moonslav59]

Re: the discussion about JBJ.

 

Cora is clearly experimenting, which he said he would to before the season started. Plus we are 9 games into a 162 game season, we are 8-1, and these experiments have demonstrably not prevented us from winning games. They have, on the other hand, given Cora an eyeful of what Beni can do in CF and JD in LF and RF. That can't be all bad.

 

Umm, I'd contend those were already well known facts that did not need to be tested or "experimented".

 

(Note: I love Cora and am not bashing him at all.)

[sk7326]

Cora is balancing the analytic and human priorities here, especially with the OF rotation. Yes, playing JD in left is suboptimal. But then between the OF and DH there are 5 good players for 4 positions.

 

It's the same with the bullpen - putting guys in spots, see what he has. Obviously the first 50-60 games of the season are not spring training - but you want to learn about your team, and if there are some losses as a result, you kind of grin and bear it.

[cp176]

I wasn't being sarcastic. I really do not put much emphasis on a cherry-picked 3 season sample size, even though it seemingly supports my position.

 

I didn't think that you were being sarcastic. If I come off as sounding that way with you, trust me I'm not meaning to be. We do have a group of people here who I think are able to debate, disagree and still be civil to one another. I think that that is the way it should be.

[moonslav59]

Cora is balancing the analytic and human priorities here, especially with the OF rotation. Yes, playing JD in left is suboptimal. But then between the OF and DH there are 5 good players for 4 positions.

 

It's the same with the bullpen - putting guys in spots, see what he has. Obviously the first 50-60 games of the season are not spring training - but you want to learn about your team, and if there are some losses as a result, you kind of grin and bear it.

 

To me, the choice is simple and clear, at least after "experimenting" over the first 9 games.

 

JMart should DH FT, and he can play OF at NL parks. Try to schedule his days of rest at NL parks to minimize his OF exposure.

 

Beni, JBJ and Betts are our FT OF'ers. Get them rest when they need it and maybe "rest" JBJ more, especially when we put JMart in the OF at NL parks.

 

HRam & Moreland share 1B duties. I'd use Moreland as a late inning defensive replacement as much as needed, and I'd start Moreland vs more RHPs than I think most here would want.

 

When Pedey returns, and we need to find playing time for Nunez, we should know more about JBJ's offensive level. We might adjust OF playing time to allow Nunez to play LF here and there.

[moonslav59]

I didn't think that you were being sarcastic. If I come off as sounding that way with you, trust me I'm not meaning to be. We do have a group of people here who I think are able to debate, disagree and still be civil to one another. I think that that is the way it should be.

 

Agreed. I don't mean to come off as authoritarian or as a Mr. Know-it-all, but I guess I do to some.

 

I love a good debate and have been known to get confrontational, when I feel someone has crossed the line of civility and decorum.

 

I really appreciate your posts, cp, despite our many differing points of view. The world would be a dull place, if they all believe exactly the same things.

[sk7326]

To me, the choice is simple and clear, at least after "experimenting" over the first 9 games.

 

JMart should DH FT, and he can play OF at NL parks. Try to schedule his days of rest at NL parks to minimize his OF exposure.

 

Beni, JBJ and Betts are our FT OF'ers. Get them rest when they need it and maybe "rest" JBJ more, especially when we put JMart in the OF at NL parks.

 

HRam & Moreland share 1B duties. I'd use Moreland as a late inning defensive replacement as much as needed, and I'd start Moreland vs more RHPs than I think most here would want.

 

When Pedey returns, and we need to find playing time for Nunez, we should know more about JBJ's offensive level. We might adjust OF playing time to allow Nunez to play LF here and there.

 

That's frankly not enough ABs for Ramirez (or for that matter Moreland).