A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[cp176]

I don't care what they get paid, either. That's up to GM's and evaluators, and Owners giving the OK. I just think, its turning other way. Starting to see FA, is not the way to go to build a solid, long lasting team. Nothing to me personally, just stating I think long term contracts for big bucks, is a failure.

I don't think, my post had any personal feelings about this.

 

I think that the teams that are and have been the most successful over the many years since FA began still in fact understand that building a team with your own talent through your minor league system is the way to go for sure. FA exists as a luxury of the wealthier owners and franchises if you ask me. It is not an end all to success and any team that thinks that it is is going to fail. You have to understand though that I do not share that the idea that Dombrowski is a farm system destroyer. There are certainly people posting here that because they disagree with some of his moves will adamantly proclaim that he is. I don't buy that for one single second but understand I think the cliff concept is horseshit as well.

[moonslav59]

While Sale and Price are certainly different people, it's not a "flawed assumption" that Sale wlll decline in the near future. It's an extremely likely reality with the only question being "when".

 

Not just when, but bu how much.

 

The evidence is in nearly ever pitcher ever.

 

There are actually quite a few pitchers who do very well after 31 and some that do even better than before 31. Some even do very well into their late 30's.

 

Really, with Sale, if you want him back after 2019, you have to be prepared that he will start to decline in 2020. It's not the type of contract DD should enter under complete denial that Sale will last for 7 years, which I doubt any GM has ever had that denial in a long term deal. If they did, the deals would be structured differently.

 

A slight decline from being the best may not be all that bad. A decline like Price's would not be good.

 

4-5 good years? Define good. He isn't not going to be a 6 fWAR pitcher at age 35. And at some point in his next deal, he is gong to be a heavily paid mediocrity. really, what it comes down to is, will the good years be enough to justify the bad ones?.

 

Would this be 4-5 good years?

 

Age WAR

 

31 6.5

32 6.0

33 5.5

34 5.0

35 4.5

 

36 3.7

37 3.0

[moonslav59]

Holt starting at 1B. I like it.

 

I'd rather see JD at clean-up, but I have no complaints.

 

 

1. Mookie Betts, RF

2. Andrew Benintendi, LF

3. J.D. Martinez, DH

4. Xander Bogaerts, SS

5. Rafael Devers, 3B

6. Brock Holt, 1B

7. Ian Kinsler, 2B

8. Sandy Leon, C

9. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF

 

 

 

[notin]

 

Would this be 4-5 good years?

 

Age WAR

 

31 6.5

32 6.0

33 5.5

34 5.0

35 4.5

 

36 3.7

37 3.0

 

Maybe if he declines that slowly.

 

But if the Sox lose Betts, it might not matter...

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe if he declines that slowly.

 

But if the Sox lose Betts, it might not matter...

 

Betts has to be the #1 priority, no question.

[moonslav59]

Maybe if he declines that slowly.

 

But if the Sox lose Betts, it might not matter...

 

True. If it's between Betts and Sale, Betts all the way.

[cp176]

Slow down boys. i doubt seriously that it ever becomes a situation of one or the other. I think that they are both equally great at what they do.

[moonslav59]

Slow down boys. i doubt seriously that it ever becomes a situation of one or the other. I think that they are both equally great at what they do.

 

Yes, they are, but it might be difficult to pay 3 guys $95M. (Price, Betts & sale)

[cp176]

Yes, they are, but it might be difficult to pay 3 guys $95M. (Price, Betts & sale)

 

it might very well be but we have 0 clue as to what is going to happen. I just don't want to see the - who is more valuable Betts or Sale arguement start.It is not important right now. I'm going to enjoy them both while we have them.

[moonslav59]

it might very well be but we have 0 clue as to what is going to happen. I just don't want to see the - who is more valuable Betts or Sale arguement start.It is not important right now. I'm going to enjoy them both while we have them.

 

I hear you, but for me, saying I want Betts more doesn't take anything away from my love for....

 

Chris Freakin' Sale!

 

[Bellhorn04]

I hear you, but for me, saying I want Betts more doesn't take anything away from my love for....

 

Chris Freakin' Sale!

 

 

I'm afraid notin is dead on about Chris being a huge decline/injury risk going forward. It's a damn shame, the guy is the ultimate beast when he's on, but he can't even pitch a full season when he's 'healthy'.

Edited October 14, 2018 by Bellhorn04

[cp176]

I'm afraid notin is dead on about Chris being a huge decline/injury risk going forward. It's a damn shame, the guy is the ultimate beast when he's on, but he can't even pitch a full season when he's 'healthy'.

 

I'm a little surprised at this. I do not think that anyone should think that notin is "dead on" about his Chris Sales opinions. I guess that we are all entitled to our opinions and personal beliefs. Im not quite ready to give up on the guy just yet who has given us so much and who has been so dominant. A speed bump maybe but I think that it is a little premature to start the Chris Sale impending demise thread.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm a little surprised at this. I do not think that anyone should think that notin is "dead on" about his Chris Sales opinions. I guess that we are all entitled to our opinions and personal beliefs. Im not quite ready to give up on the guy just yet who has given us so much and who has been so dominant. A speed bump maybe but I think that it is a little premature to start the Chris Sale impending demise thread.

 

He's a fantastically talented pitcher, cp. But he faded down the stretch in 2017 and this year he couldn't even make it down the stretch. It's his physical soundness that's the issue, not his talent or his heart.

[oldtimer]

I'm afraid notin is dead on about Chris being a huge decline/injury risk going forward. It's a damn shame, the guy is the ultimate beast when he's on, but he can't even pitch a full season when he's 'healthy'.

 

Last night it was a mechanical issue, not a health issue that bit Sale. I do also think though that long term contracts for pitchers in general are bad bets and when they amount to Price like numbers they become very bad bets. The problem is that teams will still give those kinds of contracts so we either compete or look elsewhere.

[Bellhorn04]

Last night it was a mechanical issue, not a health issue that bit Sale.

 

A mechanical issue doesn't really explain Chris Sale consistently throwing 91 MPH fastballs from the get-go. I think he's hurt and he's doing his best to pitch through it.

[cp176]

A mechanical issue doesn't really explain Chris Sale consistently throwing 91 MPH fastballs from the get-go. I think he's hurt and he's doing his best to pitch through it.

 

I guess I am confused which would not be the first time. When did this become a thread discussing a possible long term contract to Chris Sale?

He did have a horrible night last night. He didn't throw a bunch of fastballs but I thought he got a few moving a little faster than 91 mph. You may very well be right that he is hurt. Maybe it is just me - maybe it is out of loyalty for a pitcher who quite honestly I have enjoyed watching as much as any I have ever watched. yes that also means that I think that he is as talented as any who ever wore the Sox uniform. We all have our favorites - he is my kind of player. He has an injury history that has amounted to next to nothing and I am amazed that anyone has reached a point that they are even talking about his impending demise.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess I am confused which would not be the first time. When did this become a thread discussing a possible long term contract to Chris Sale?

 

It's a general thread for talking anything Red Sox. Why wouldn't Chris Sale's future with the team be one of the topics?

[cp176]

It's a general thread for talking anything Red Sox. Why wouldn't Chris Sale's future with the team be one of the topics?

 

I don't care what you discuss. I like a general discussion as much as the next person. It is also a forum that is filled with opinion and conjecture. Why should Chris Sale's future with the Red Sox be a topic on a thread dealing with the realities of 2018? I don't mind at all if people want to float the idea that he is too old or too injury prone to sign to a future contract. I am surprised and a little confused as to why that seems to be a topic for discussion at this time. But since we are talking about it, suggesting that his demise is inevitable because of the injury he has had and maybe still has in my opinion might be a little premature.

[fxkatt]

It's a general thread for talking anything Red Sox. Why wouldn't Chris Sale's future with the team be one of the topics?

 

I've never started a thread here because I don't have a real grasp on how this forum works--not yet. But I assume such a thread will begin post season. It might be one which would discuss both Sale's health and Sale's contract.

 

I had no idea this was a "general thread." So, I've learned something.

 

As to Sale last night, it wasn't pretty. He threw 86 pitches and only 5 were swinging strikes. That ain't Chris Sale. That ain't Chris Sale's game. Plus the low speeds--way lower than Verlander. He's apparently gutting it out, playing with some kind of arm or shoulder injury.

[oldtimer]

I've never started a thread here because I don't have a real grasp on how this forum works--not yet. But I assume such a thread will begin post season. It might be one which would discuss both Sale's health and Sale's contract.

 

I had no idea this was a "general thread." So, I've learned something.

 

As to Sale last night, it wasn't pretty. He threw 86 pitches and only 5 were swinging strikes. That ain't Chris Sale. That ain't Chris Sale's game. Plus the low speeds--way lower than Verlander. He's apparently gutting it out, playing with some kind of arm or shoulder injury.

 

We really should confine discussions to the playoff series as there is much to discuss. Once the season ends, after a reprise, there will be plently of time to rehash the moves we shold make going forward. Those have been discussed already of course, with Moon out front with his facts and figures. There are many opinions, probably as many as there are contributors, but Moon triesd to bring realism to the discussion.

[Bellhorn04]

I had no idea this was a "general thread." So, I've learned something.

 

Um, what did you think it was? Did you read through it at all?

[Bellhorn04]

I don't care what you discuss. I like a general discussion as much as the next person. It is also a forum that is filled with opinion and conjecture. Why should Chris Sale's future with the Red Sox be a topic on a thread dealing with the realities of 2018?

 

Get serious. Do we really have to stick to the year 2018 on this thread? You say you don't care what's discussed and then you question it.

 

If you're not interested in the topic of Chris Sale's future you just have to disregard any posts about it. Pretty simple.

[moonslav59]

I'm afraid notin is dead on about Chris being a huge decline/injury risk going forward. It's a damn shame, the guy is the ultimate beast when he's on, but he can't even pitch a full season when he's 'healthy'.

 

Note: I said I wanted Betts over Sale, but that doesn't mean I don't want Sale. I want him, but I would not pay him Price money.

[Bellhorn04]

Note: I said I wanted Betts over Sale, but that doesn't mean I don't want Sale. I want him, but I would not pay him Price money.

 

I love Sale. But his durability is more of a question than ever. Now it's not just a question of him wearing down late in the season, but of the structural health of his arm.

[moonslav59]

I'm fine with talking about 2019 and beyond on this 2018 thread.

 

That being said, and bring this back to 2018, I'm wondering if the cold temperatures had something to do with Sale's problems last night. I'm not reaching for excuses, but he didn't even wear a warm long sleeve undergarment.

 

I hope it's warmer for his next start, but I am far away from giving up on Sale for this year and next.

 

Now, about the future. There is no soon-to-be-FA SP'er in MLB today that I would give $31M x 7+ years.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm fine with talking about 2019 and beyond on this 2018 thread.

 

That being said, and bring this back to 2018, I'm wondering if the cold temperatures had something to do with Sale's problems last night. I'm not reaching for excuses, but he didn't even wear a warm long sleeve undergarment.

 

I hope it's warmer for his next start, but I am far away from giving up on Sale for this year and next.

 

I doubt it was the temperature taking 5-6 MPH off his fastball, moon. The guy pitched in Chicago for years. And Verlander's velocity seemed to be at the usual level.

 

I think we have to face the fact he's hurt and trying to pitch through it.

[moonslav59]

I love Sale. But his durability is more of a question than ever. Now it's not just a question of him wearing down late in the season, but of the structural health of his arm.

 

I am certainly more concerned now than ever about Sale's arm, and I was the biggest proponent of resting him last year, even if it risked us not winning the division. I think I stood alone on that one. Don't get me wrong, I AM concerned. I am also confident Sale will do better his next start.

 

Most pitchers have had arm issues at some point in their career, that's one reason I feel no SP'er should get 7+ years at over $30M,

 

[moonslav59]

I doubt it was the temperature taking 5-6 MPH off his fastball, moon. The guy pitched in Chicago for years. And Verlander's velocity seemed to be at the usual level.

 

I think we have to face the fact he's hurt and trying to pitch through it.

 

Good points, but Sale did hit 93 a few times. That's more like 2-4 off this season's norm, and an amount that could be made up for by his next start.

 

We'll have to wait and see. I'm glad game 5 is in Houston- not frigid Boston.

[a700hitter]

I am certainly more concerned now than ever about Sale's arm, and I was the biggest proponent of resting him last year, even if it risked us not winning the division. I think I stood alone on that one. Don't get me wrong, I AM concerned. I am also confident Sale will do better his next start.

 

Most pitchers have had arm issues at some point in their career, that's one reason I feel no SP'er should get 7+ years at over $30M,

 

He certainly wasn't sharp until his last inning. That could be an indicator of an arm issue, and it might not be an indicator of an arm issue.

 

If we are going to blow out his arm, let's do it while winning a world championship. The last game that Curt Schilling threw was a Word Series win.

[moonslav59]

He certainly wasn't sharp until his last inning. That could be an indicator of an arm issue, and it might not be an indicator of an arm issue.

 

If we are going to blow out his arm, let's do it while winning a world championship. The last game that Curt Schilling threw was a Word Series win.

 

Nothing to disagree with here.

 

I'm wondering how Sale's arm feels today.