A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[notin]

So it really wasn't standing still at all. It was the beginning of the transition to the young home grown players who are now the core of the team. They were stuck with players from the 2013 team who weren't part of the future and also weren't really assets to trade to get any real return. 2013 was unique season from a collection of players who had great performances that were not sustainable.

 

Is it possible we might also be able to say that about 2018?

[Kimmi]

Is it possible we might also be able to say that about 2018?

 

No. We were able to say that about 2017, that the poor performances were not sustainable.

[moonslav59]

Is it possible we might also be able to say that about 2018?

 

Maybe, but we still have many players on the upswing of their age progression curves.

 

Plus, vaz, Leon, JBJ, Devers, Beni and Nunez declined from 2017.

 

From 2016 to 2017, just about everybody but Vaz decline- some by a lot.

 

[jung]

Pressure just crushing in these games. Tight 2-2 contest in Cleveland with all the big hits to the 7th coming on mistake pitches that were not missed even a little bit.....Bauer then makes two throwing errors in the 7th and opens the floodgates. Another pitcher trying to throw to 2nd off the top of the mound basically stabs himself right in the heart. Now 4-2, only 1 out. Astros on 2nd and 3rd and Miller into the game to try to stem the tide.

[oldtimer]

Pressure just crushing in these games. Tight 2-2 contest in Cleveland with all the big hits to the 7th coming on mistake pitches that were not missed even a little bit.....Bauer then makes two throwing errors in the 7th and opens the floodgates. Another pitcher trying to throw to 2nd off the top of the mound basically stabs himself right in the heart. Now 4-2, only 1 out. Astros on 2nd and 3rd and Miller into the game to try to stem the tide.

 

Cleveland came in with an impressive lineup and what looked to be very good starting pitching but were swept by the Astros. Be interesting to what others make of that. I know the Astros are an excellent club, but Cleveland was taken down rather easily.

 

I agree with Moon that winning 16 to 1 last night does not give us an advantage over the yankees in todays game. It's Porcello against Sabbathia and our BP against theirs. They will bring out their best tonight as their is no tomorrow for them. Its win or better luck next year. Whoever is sharp and confident will determine who wins the game. If its us, we move ahead to play a tough Astros team.

 

I thought the Braves and Rockies would go fairly quickly so now the Brewers with play the Dodgers and that should be a good series. Lots of fun watching the games but I haven't seen as much as I would have liked due to playing in the Senior games softball tournament in Cary, NC. Too tired to stay awake for the games. I got home last night around 9:00 pm so saw quite a bit of our beat down of the Yankees.

[moonslav59]

Cleveland came in with an impressive lineup and what looked to be very good starting pitching but were swept by the Astros. Be interesting to what others make of that. I know the Astros are an excellent club, but Cleveland was taken down rather easily.

 

I agree with Moon that winning 16 to 1 last night does not give us an advantage over the yankees in todays game. It's Porcello against Sabbathia and our BP against theirs. They will bring out their best tonight as their is no tomorrow for them. Its win or better luck next year. Whoever is sharp and confident will determine who wins the game. If its us, we move ahead to play a tough Astros team.

 

I thought the Braves and Rockies would go fairly quickly so now the Brewers with play the Dodgers and that should be a good series. Lots of fun watching the games but I haven't seen as much as I would have liked due to playing in the Senior games softball tournament in Cary, NC. Too tired to stay awake for the games. I got home last night around 9:00 pm so saw quite a bit of our beat down of the Yankees.

 

I certainly feel better going into tonight's game, as it will be a Yankee elimination game and not a Sox one, but yes, the 16-1 win last night changes nothing about our odds of winning tonight.

 

I like our chances, as I always have, for Porcello and the Sox tonight.

 

Our offense didn't lead the league in runs scored by mistake. Our bottom 4 hitters have struggled at times, but they have all had moments of being hot.

 

I'm hopeful we can use the momentum to keep this going, but we all should no that momentum can change very quickly.

[SoxnCycles]

The only thing I dislike about last night's game is that teams seem* to score 1 or 2 runs in the game after an offensive explosion .

 

 

(*My opinion, no data to back it up)

[Bellhorn04]

The only thing I dislike about last night's game is that teams seem* to score 1 or 2 runs in the game after an offensive explosion .

 

(*My opinion, no data to back it up)

 

OK let's fix this.

 

2004

Scored 10 runs in Game 7 of ALCS

Scored 11 runs in Game 1 of WS

 

2007

Scored 12 runs in Game 6 of ALCS

Scored 11 runs in Game 7 of ALCS

Scored 13 runs in Game 1 of WS

 

Fixed!

[moonslav59]

The only thing I dislike about last night's game is that teams seem* to score 1 or 2 runs in the game after an offensive explosion .

 

 

(*My opinion, no data to back it up)

 

That does seem to happen to the Sox a lot, especially in the pre-Henry years.

 

Here's a look at this year... (after scoring 9 or more runs- first game scoring 9+ listed, some multiple stretches listed)

 

10-8-14-7-6-7-10-3-10-9-8-7

 

10-6-5-5-5-6-6

 

9-6-7

 

14-2-5-9-9-4-1-11-1-4-11-3-10-15-7-5-8

 

10-3-2-1-15-4-4-5-10-10-5-19-5-6

 

10-7-3

 

14-9-1-6

 

9-3-3

 

11-7-4-3-6-19-3-6-5-10 (last game of season)

Edited October 9, 2018 by moonslav59

[SoxnCycles]

Not quite as bad as I thought.

[moonslav59]

Not quite as bad as I thought.

 

I expected worse, too.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR's arb projections:

 

Red Sox (13)

 

Mookie Betts – $18.7MM

Xander Bogaerts – $11.9MM

Jackie Bradley Jr. – $7.9MM

Eduardo Rodriguez – $4.8MM

Brock Holt – $3.4MM

Tyler Thornburg – $2.3MM (Non tender? Sign and trade?)

Sandy Leon – $2.3MM

Matt Barnes – $1.5MM

Brandon Workman – $1.4MM

Steven Wright – $1.4MM

Heath Hembree – $1.2MM

Carson Smith – $1.1MM (Non tender? Sign & trade?)

Blake Swihart- $1.1MM

 

$58-60M total

 

 

 

[oldtimer]

Having watched the game last night and had an unsettled night tryiing to sleep, I want to congratulate the players, coaches and managers for doing a great job of beating a stacked Yankee team in their own ball park and bringing home another ALDS for us die hard fans. Saying that, I was nervous about Kimbrel.

 

Kimbrel came in to a game where we had held the Yankees to 2 runs in 17 innings. Kimbrel is very experienced at closing games and facing game pressure. He has had a lot of close calls along the way where he creates trouble for himself but has gotten out of many of those. Kimbrel really has 2 quality pitches. A heavy 4 seam fastball and a knuckle curve. I cannot psychoanalysis him but it appeared that he wasn't willing to use his quality pitches and trust in them to prevent the Yankees from scoring. It appeared he tried to put a little more on each pitch and was wild as a result. Relief pitchers in general appear to be a breed apart and closers perhaps more hyper. We have seen Barnes, Kelly, Workman, Hembree and Kimbrel lose it at times and last night Kimbrel seemed non-plussed and almost irrational in the way he pitched. Cora had to stay with him as who knows how Kelly or Hembree would have done. Kimbrel would have been the goat of goats if he had lost that game. As it is, he has left a very bad taste in my mouth and I would find it a stupid move to go into a bidding war on the FA market for his continued services. Maybe it will be time to move on.

[moonslav59]

What changes, if any, might we see for the ALCS?

 

Is Moreland healthy enough? (add Travis or Lin?)

 

Do we add a 12th pitcher? If yes, should it be a long man like Johnson or Velazquez or a lefty like Poyner to face some tough 'stros lefties?

 

I think we might go with what we have now, but if we are not going to PH for our catchers, I'm not sure why Swihart is on the roster.

 

[oldtimer]

What changes, if any, might we see for the ALCS?

 

Is Moreland healthy enough? (add Travis or Lin?)

 

Do we add a 12th pitcher? If yes, should it be a long man like Johnson or Velazquez or a lefty like Poyner to face some tough 'stros lefties?

 

I think we might go with what we have now, but if we are not going to PH for our catchers, I'm not sure why Swihart is on the roster.

 

 

Vaz has held his own at bat but Leon has not. With Vaz in, we probably will not need a pinch hitter. With Leon, unless we are well ahead, he should be taken out when we have a scoring opportunity with him at bat.

 

I haven't noticed field players underperforming with the possible exception of Moreland whose injury status is uncertain. We probably stand pat for the astros.

[Bellhorn04]

What changes, if any, might we see for the ALCS?

 

Is Moreland healthy enough? (add Travis or Lin?)

 

Do we add a 12th pitcher? If yes, should it be a long man like Johnson or Velazquez or a lefty like Poyner to face some tough 'stros lefties?

 

I think we might go with what we have now, but if we are not going to PH for our catchers, I'm not sure why Swihart is on the roster.

 

 

Probably add a pitcher and remove Swihart.

[moonslav59]

Here's how 2019 looks with MLBTR's arb estimates included:

 

In Luxury Tax Dollars

31.1 David Price

22.0 JD Martinez

20.1 Rick Porcello

18.7 Mookie Betts

13.8 Dustin Pedroia

13.5M Chris Sale

11.9 Xander Bogaerts

7.9 Jackie Bradley Jr.

6.5 Mitch Moreland

5.0 Eduardo Nunez (with PA bonus reached)

4.8 Eduardo Rodriguez

4.5 Christian Vazquez

3.4 Brock Holt

2.3 Tyler Thornburg

2.3 Sandy Leon

1.5 Matt Barnes

1.4 Brandon Workman

1.4 Steven Wright

1.2 Heath Hembree

1.1 Carson Smith

1.1 Blake Swihart

 

$172M Total (21 players)

 

$2.2M Min for 4 MLB roster players

 

$2.2M 15 players in minor leagues on 40 man roster

 

$14.5M Player Benefits

 

$18.5M Sandoval

 

$209M Total

 

That's exactly the CB Threshold next year, so if we want to reset, we'll have to trade equal salary to what we add. My guess is, it depends on winning a ring or not this year, but after 2020, we will try to reset one way or another.

 

[Bellhorn04]

After 2019 you mean.

[moonslav59]

After 2019 you mean.

 

No, I've always felt the window is open through 2020, but if we win in 2018 or 2019, we may choose to reset before hand and bring on the closed window earlier.

 

Henry will pay a huge tax in 2020, but if we don't win in 2018 or 2019, we'll still have a solid base for 2020, if henry wants another shot at it. After 2020, all bets are off.

[dgalehouse]

The Boston Red Sox just beat the Yankees in four games. Sure there were some anxious moments, but should you really expect anything else? The Yankees are a very , very good team. To eliminate them in Yankee Stadium is one of the toughest things in sports. The Sox did it. Houston is also very good. But the Red Sox are much better than they were last year, and they have home field advantage this year. The Astros will be the next to fall. Then on to the Fall Classic. The Sox have been the best team in baseball all year and they are the best right now. Try to relax and enjoy it.

[moonslav59]

The Boston Red Sox just beat the Yankees in four games. Sure there were some anxious moments, but should you really expect anything else? The Yankees are a very , very good team. To eliminate them in Yankee Stadium is one of the toughest things in sports. The Sox did it. Houston is also very good. But the Red Sox are much better than they were last year, and they have home field advantage this year. The Astros will be the next to fall. Then on to the Fall Classic. The Sox have been the best team in baseball all year and they are the best right now. Try to relax and enjoy it.

 

Yes, we are much better than last year, and the Astros have a lot of players who declined from last year- some due to injury and some for unknown reasons. Sure, they could bounce back. They have a solid team, on paper, but I like our chances with home filed advantage and Sale pitching 2 of the first 5 games.

[kenmeister]

Here's how 2019 looks with MLBTR's arb estimates included:

 

In Luxury Tax Dollars

31.1 David Price

22.0 JD Martinez

20.1 Rick Porcello

18.7 Mookie Betts

13.8 Dustin Pedroia

13.5M Chris Sale

11.9 Xander Bogaerts

7.9 Jackie Bradley Jr.

6.5 Mitch Moreland

5.0 Eduardo Nunez (with PA bonus reached)

4.8 Eduardo Rodriguez

4.5 Christian Vazquez

3.4 Brock Holt

2.3 Tyler Thornburg

2.3 Sandy Leon

1.5 Matt Barnes

1.4 Brandon Workman

1.4 Steven Wright

1.2 Heath Hembree

1.1 Carson Smith

1.1 Blake Swihart

 

$172M Total (21 players)

 

$2.2M Min for 4 MLB roster players

 

$2.2M 15 players in minor leagues on 40 man roster

 

$14.5M Player Benefits

 

$18.5M Sandoval

 

$209M Total

 

That's exactly the CB Threshold next year, so if we want to reset, we'll have to trade equal salary to what we add. My guess is, it depends on winning a ring or not this year, but after 2020, we will try to reset one way or another.

 

 

I'm really hoping they keep Eovaldi, Pearce, and Kinsler.

[moonslav59]

I'm really hoping they keep Eovaldi, Pearce, and Kinsler.

 

I think we'll go $39M over next year, unless we win it this year, and Henry pulls the plug.

 

That could get us Kimbrel, Pearce and Kinsler. I'm not high on Kinsler, who looks to be in steep offensive decline. Guys like Pearce should not cost much.

 

I'd pass on Kimbrel and maybe go with this:

 

2 from:

Cody Allen

Jeurys Familai

Adam Ottavino

Adam Warren

 

2B DJ LeMahieu

 

1B Matt Adams, Marwin Gonzalez or Steve Pearce

 

I'd save some budget space to pick up a SP'er like Eovaldi or Happ this year.

 

 

[oldtimer]

I think we'll go $39M over next year, unless we win it this year, and Henry pulls the plug.

 

That could get us Kimbrel, Pearce and Kinsler. I'm not high on Kinsler, who looks to be in steep offensive decline. Guys like Pearce should not cost much.

 

I'd pass on Kimbrel and maybe go with this:

 

2 from:

Cody Allen

Jeurys Familai

Adam Ottavino

Adam Warren

 

2B DJ LeMahieu

 

1B Matt Adams, Marwin Gonzalez or Steve Pearce

 

I'd save some budget space to pick up a SP'er like Eovaldi or Happ this year.

 

 

 

I like your general direction:

 

Kinsler is a good pro but I would rather have a young and capable second baseman to share duties with Pedroia. I doubt if Dustin can do the entire season and if would give us a transition body. You suggest LeMahieu but I would find a home grown (if he exists) or a young and rising player in that role as being a decent choice.

 

I don't think we will get Kimbrel and maybe it is time to go in another direction. Kimbrel has earned his keep in the past but a long term high dollar contract there should be avoided. DD may be able to come up with a solid closer from a different source. I don't have anyone in mind.

 

I believe we should wait to pick up relief pitchers until we have a look at what we have during spring training. We probably lose Kelly but will keep most of our resources and augment as needed.

 

At first base, we have Moreland for another year and I don't expect him to be traded. To supplement him, Pearce is not a bad choice for one year. Possibly Devers will transition there for the 2020 season. I would keep Nunez and Holt as well.

 

One position you didn't mention is catcher. I prefer not to go another year with Leon on the roster. His hitting is just not at a ML level so at some time he will be let go, why not for the 2019 season. Swihart has ML talent and we either should give this versatile and athletic player a chance or cut him lose.

 

Finally, although not a priority, if a better hitting quality CF turns up, I think we should go in that direction. JBJ is a great fielder but in my mind a marginal hitter.

[kenmeister]

I like your general direction:

 

Kinsler is a good pro but I would rather have a young and capable second baseman to share duties with Pedroia. I doubt if Dustin can do the entire season and if would give us a transition body. You suggest LeMahieu but I would find a home grown (if he exists) or a young and rising player in that role as being a decent choice.

 

 

Given that we have Pedroia on the roster and he may be able to give us games next year, a platoon of Pedroia/Holt/Nunez makes sense, so we could forego Kinsler.

[mvp 78]

Given that we have Pedroia on the roster and he may be able to give us games next year, a platoon of Pedroia/Holt/Nunez makes sense, so we could forego Kinsler.

 

Kinsler isn't coming back.

[notin]

Kinsler isn't coming back.

 

Agreed.

 

And the Sox will still have Holt, Nunez and Lin backing up in the infield. If Pedroia is actually healthy, he is going to get every chance to take back his position. If he isn't, maybe they fill it mid-year like they did this season...

[mvp 78]

Agreed.

 

And the Sox will still have Holt, Nunez and Lin backing up in the infield. If Pedroia is actually healthy, he is going to get every chance to take back his position. If he isn't, maybe they fill it mid-year like they did this season...

 

Good chance Quiroz gets a majority of the starts in the second half.

[notin]

Good chance Quiroz gets a majority of the starts in the second half.

 

I wouldn't say it's a good chance. But he is another option...

[moonslav59]

I like your general direction:

 

Kinsler is a good pro but I would rather have a young and capable second baseman to share duties with Pedroia. I doubt if Dustin can do the entire season and if would give us a transition body. You suggest LeMahieu but I would find a home grown (if he exists) or a young and rising player in that role as being a decent choice.

 

I don't think we will get Kimbrel and maybe it is time to go in another direction. Kimbrel has earned his keep in the past but a long term high dollar contract there should be avoided. DD may be able to come up with a solid closer from a different source. I don't have anyone in mind.

 

I believe we should wait to pick up relief pitchers until we have a look at what we have during spring training. We probably lose Kelly but will keep most of our resources and augment as needed.

 

At first base, we have Moreland for another year and I don't expect him to be traded. To supplement him, Pearce is not a bad choice for one year. Possibly Devers will transition there for the 2020 season. I would keep Nunez and Holt as well.

 

One position you didn't mention is catcher. I prefer not to go another year with Leon on the roster. His hitting is just not at a ML level so at some time he will be let go, why not for the 2019 season. Swihart has ML talent and we either should give this versatile and athletic player a chance or cut him lose.

 

Finally, although not a priority, if a better hitting quality CF turns up, I think we should go in that direction. JBJ is a great fielder but in my mind a marginal hitter.

 

I did mention catcher in another post.

 

While I do think we need to try and upgrade the bottom of our order, I'm fine with Leon & Vaz next year. I love their defense and the intangibles they bring to our staff.

 

If we can pick up a catcher that can quickly create the same comfort level with our starters AND hit over .700, fine, but that will be very costly, and would likely force us to not upgrade in areas I think need more help:

 

Pen

 

2B

 

RH'd hitter (1B)

 

I'd also put starting pitcher depth ahead of upgrading our catching position, but I don't think we have enough resources to go down to our 4th and 5th priorities (actually 5th and 6th, because we need at least 2 RP'ers with Kimbrel and Kelly leaving.

 

I think we wait until the season starts to find a SP'er. I think we go with the catchers we have.

 

We could let 2B ride and hope for the best. There's a lot of wannabees and an outside chance Pedey returns:

 

Pedey

Nunez

Holt

Marco Hernandez

Lin

Quiroz

 

We could trade Moreland and move Devers to 1B and then take one or two from Nunez, Holt, Lin and Hernandez out of the 2B mix or use 3-4 guys to rotate among the 2 positions.

 

We could use Devers at 3B vs RHPs and 1B vs LHPs, and then just have to use Nunez at 3B vs LHPs. Lot's of possibilities.

 

If we want to be a strong contender next year, we can't lose Kimbrel and not improve significantly elsewhere. I don't think CF is the place. Our 2B, 1B and even 3B is by far the weakest offensive position beyond catcher. We have to have faith in Devers. He's our only real hope for a big in-house infusion or improvement over this year's team, whether it be at 3B, 1B or even DH, if we trade JBJ.

 

I have very little faith in Chavis, Dalbec or Ockimey helping us in 2020 and beyond, and near zero hopes for 2019 with those 3. Travis is a pipe dream. We got nothin' on the farm to help us in 2019.

 

We have to make do with shrewd moderate signings and maybe a strategic trade. We can hope DD comes through, again, on mid season deals.

 

No choices look easy. We could sign Dozier, and he could suck or Pedey could come back strong and force an issue.

 

We could try to go large at 1B with someone like Abreu, but at what cost?

 

We could try to acquire another ace or solid #2 starter like Carrasco, but again, at what cost (JBJ & ERod?)

 

We could look for mid-range guys like Eovaldi, Pearce and the Cody Allens of the world, but that's not going to make up for losing Kimbrel and Kelly.