A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

Don't you think this past offseason indicated that things might be changing to a certain extent?

 

JDM got much less than expected.

 

Moustakas almost got shut out completely.

 

A bunch of teams just sat back and did nothing.

 

The Dodgers and Yankees were resetting their luxury tax budget. Those two team are historically 2 of the top 3 spenders in MLB. The Sox, the other team, were straddling the max line and had limited funds. Other top spending teams had similar situations.

 

Much of that changes next year.

 

Just watch the spending this winter.

[Bellhorn04]

The Dodgers and Yankees were resetting their luxury tax budget. Those two team are historically 2 of the top 3 spenders in MLB. The Sox, the other team, were straddling the max line and had limited funds. Other top spending teams had similar situations.

 

Much of that changes next year.

 

Just watch the spending this winter.

 

We'll see. I don't think teams that have re-set want to instantly put themselves back in what Jackso calls 'cap hell', either.

[moonslav59]

We'll see. I don't think teams that have re-set want to instantly put themselves back in what Jackso calls 'cap hell', either.

 

They can spend mega bucks and still be way below the max tax line or even the second higher penalty line.

[Bellhorn04]

They can spend mega bucks and still be way below the max tax line or even the second higher penalty line.

 

Let's define 'mega bucks' though. How much do you think the Yankees have to spend on free agents this winter?

[moonslav59]

Let's define 'mega bucks' though. How much do you think the Yankees have to spend on free agents this winter?

 

Their projected payroll next year, counting arb raises and player benefits payments is $100M.

 

 

They are losing Sabathia, Robertson, Walker and maybe Gardner (team option) plus McCutchen, Happ, Lynn and Britton.

 

That gives them $106M to spend and still be below the luxury tax and $126M to spend to stay under the second penalty phase. They could spend $146M and still not be in the "tax hell" weare in.

 

There should be total agreement on the idea that they have MEGA BUCKS to spend! So do the Dodgers.

 

The Dodgers lose Machado, Dozier, Grandal, Ryu & Madson. Their estimated budget, before any further spending is at $123M. That gives them $83M to spend and still be under, $103M to stay under phase 2 and $123M for under the max line. Again, MEGA BUCKs lottery numbers.

 

The CB Tax Threshold is $206M next season. Here are some projections...

 

$147M SFG with Bumgarner otion

$145M Cubs without the Hamels option

$141M Boston with Sale's option

$104M HOU without McCann option

$100M Nats

 

Just watch the MEGA spending this winter. Teams saved up for this historic free agent season. It's going to be a bidding fest.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Their projected payroll next year, counting arb raises and player benefits payments is $100M.

 

 

Take another look. The $100M does NOT include any arb players.

[moonslav59]

Take another look. The $100M does NOT include any arb players.

 

You're right. My bad. I was sure I saw it did.

 

Okay, so $146M minus arb costs. We're still talking at least $80M to spend. (They may not even offer Gray an arb.)

[moonslav59]

With so many NL teams feeling like they are close to contending, I could see many of these teams looking to go large on 1-2 big name free agents:

 

LAD

SFG

Cubs

WSH

ATL

STL

PHI

PIT

MIL

COL

Plus, traditional big spending non contenders like NYM. Even the padres splurged last winter on Hosmer.

 

AL possibilities

NYY

BOS to some extent

HOU

CLE

SEA

LAA

Even the CWS might see this winter as the time to add a piece or two to their solid young core of talent.

 

 

[Kimmi]

It's not a rational market - because there are not a lot of quality players. Teams play a premium to win the process. Now while this is long run inefficient - flags fly forever, and the early part of the contract can justify the net worth of the deal in general. And with the owners having been found guilty of collusion before, any mass reduction is looked at (correctly) with suspicion.

 

Flags do fly forever. The problem is, an owner can spend like a drunken fool, signing quality players, and that flag would still be far from a guarantee.

[Kimmi]

Don't you think this past offseason indicated that things might be changing to a certain extent?

 

JDM got much less than expected.

 

Moustakas almost got shut out completely.

 

A bunch of teams just sat back and did nothing.

 

Probably to a certain extent.

 

I think the Yankees and Dodgers trying to get under the cap played a part in it, along with the number of teams who are 'rebuilding'.

 

It will be interesting to see what kinds of contracts are handed out this offseason.

[Kimmi]

We'll see. I don't think teams that have re-set want to instantly put themselves back in what Jackso calls 'cap hell', either.

 

I don't know Bell. I think the whole point of resetting the penalty is so that they can go for broke the next year.

[moonslav59]

1. This past winter was not loaded with top free agents.

2. The biggest spenders were either resetting their luxury tax or limited by the $40M over line.

3. Next winter is different on both counts.

[Kimmi]

1. This past winter was not loaded with top free agents.

2. The biggest spenders were either resetting their luxury tax or limited by the $40M over line.

3. Next winter is different on both counts.

 

I agree, but we shall see.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know Bell. I think the whole point of resetting the penalty is so that they can go for broke the next year.

 

I guess we'll find out this offseason.

[moonslav59]

Some big names for this winter....

 

Bryce Harper

 

Manny Machado

 

C Kershaw

 

J Donaldson

 

C Kimbrel

 

B Dozier

 

Andrew Miller

 

Z Britton

 

D Keuchel

 

DJ LeMahieu

 

N Cruz, A Beltre, AJ Pollock, E Gatis, A Cabrera, E Andrus, W Ramos, McCutchen, C Blackmon

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

I guess we'll find out this offseason.

 

Yup. As I said, it will be interesting to see how things play out this year.

[Bellhorn04]

People have said a lot about the Yankees going after Machado or Harper. And they certainly may. But what they really need is starting pitching.

[Kimmi]

People have said a lot about the Yankees going after Machado or Harper. And they certainly may. But what they really need is starting pitching.

 

Kershaw?

 

That would stink.

[moonslav59]

Kershaw?

 

That would stink.

 

The Yanks can afford to sign Kershaw, Machado and Harper and still be below the max line by letting Gardner go.

[FredLynn]

The Yanks can afford to sign Kershaw, Machado and Harper and still be below the max line by letting Gardner go.

 

The last three years Kershaw has begun to get injured a lot. If the Yankees want to empty the bank for him I would be happy to see it.

[moonslav59]

The last three years Kershaw has begun to get injured a lot. If the Yankees want to empty the bank for him I would be happy to see it.

 

Me, too. Get all three for all I care. Let them work their way into a corner/

[moonslav59]

JBJ is up to .710, now.

 

He's up 208 since May 19th.

 

He's been pretty consistently about .790 for 4 months in a row. (.794)

[moonslav59]

Let's say we win it all this fall and look to cut some salary next year while still taking a stab at a back-to-back.

 

Let everyone walk...

Kimbrel

Kinsler

Pomeranz

Kelly

Eovaldi

Phillips

 

Go light, but take a decent stab at some upside...

 

Sign:

 

RP: Cody Allen (4.10 ERA/1.39 WHIP this year, but 2.59/1.13 in previous 5 yrs)

 

2B: DJ LeMahieu (.348 3 yrs ago, but can field well and hit near .780)

 

1B/OF/DH: Bring Pearce back.

 

Let it ride....

 

[moonslav59]

Updated Sox OPS

 

1.054 Betts

1.026 JD M

.917 Pearce

.878 Bogey

.835 Beni

.766 Moreland

.723 Holt

.710 JBJ

.710 Devers

.707 Kinsler

.674 Nunez

.573 Swihart

.551 Vaz

.527 Swihart

 

[redsoxrules]

Let's say we win it all this fall and look to cut some salary next year while still taking a stab at a back-to-back.

 

Let everyone walk...

Kimbrel

Kinsler

Pomeranz

Kelly

Eovaldi

Phillips

 

Go light, but take a decent stab at some upside...

 

Sign:

 

RP: Cody Allen (4.10 ERA/1.39 WHIP this year, but 2.59/1.13 in previous 5 yrs)

 

2B: DJ LeMahieu (.348 3 yrs ago, but can field well and hit near .780)

 

1B/OF/DH: Bring Pearce back.

 

Let it ride....

 

 

I'm ok with letting everyone go except Kimbrel. I also wouldn't sign Lemahieu as they need all the available money they have to sign mookie, xb and sale after next year. I'd let porcello walk. He's too inconsistent to be making over 20 Mil a year.

[notin]

Let's say we win it all this fall and look to cut some salary next year while still taking a stab at a back-to-back.

 

Let everyone walk...

Kimbrel

Kinsler

Pomeranz

Kelly

Eovaldi

Phillips

 

Go light, but take a decent stab at some upside...

 

Sign:

 

RP: Cody Allen (4.10 ERA/1.39 WHIP this year, but 2.59/1.13 in previous 5 yrs)

 

2B: DJ LeMahieu (.348 3 yrs ago, but can field well and hit near .780)

 

1B/OF/DH: Bring Pearce back.

 

Let it ride....

 

 

LeMahieu? Pass. I’ll take my chances with Pedroia, Holt, Nunez and Hernandez. I don’t see why a fifth second baseman is needed.

 

I could see the Sox pursuing Yasmani Grandal or Wilson Ramos...

[Kimmi]

The Yanks can afford to sign Kershaw, Machado and Harper and still be below the max line by letting Gardner go.

 

I really would have no problem with the Yankees signing Machado and Harper.

 

Admittedly, I have a little 'girl' crush on Kershaw. Seeing him in pinstripes would stink just because I like him as a player so much.

[Kimmi]

I'd like to give a little shout out to Brock Holt, whom nearly everyone here was against bringing back for a mere $2.2 million.

 

After the terrible time that he had last year with the concussion issues, he has bounced back fairly well and has come up with a few big pinch hits. Additionally, he seems to be a great presence in the clubhouse and just an overall good person. Anyone who gets nominated for the Roberto Clemente Award is okay in my book.

 

Good for him.

[moonslav59]

LeMahieu? Pass. I’ll take my chances with Pedroia, Holt, Nunez and Hernandez. I don’t see why a fifth second baseman is needed.

 

I could see the Sox pursuing Yasmani Grandal or Wilson Ramos...

 

If we signed LeMahieu, it would be because Pedey is done. We could then trade Nunez or Holt, but my thought was that we'd use Devers at DH some and maybe some 1B, which would give Nunez a lot of time at 3B and less at 2B.

 

Signing Grandal to do some catching and play some 1B, assuming we don't keep Pearce might work. Too bad he hits righties better than lefties, so he's not a good platoon with Moreland. I guess we'd then trade a catcher.

 

[moonslav59]

I'd like to give a little shout out to Brock Holt, whom nearly everyone here was against bringing back for a mere $2.2 million.

 

After the terrible time that he had last year with the concussion issues, he has bounced back fairly well and has come up with a few big pinch hits. Additionally, he seems to be a great presence in the clubhouse and just an overall good person. Anyone who gets nominated for the Roberto Clemente Award is okay in my book.

 

Good for him.

 

I had Holt in just about every trade suggestion I made. I guess my hopes for a Pedey return and a healthy Nunez out of the gate clouded my judgement. I also did not expect a .700 plus OPS.

 

He's been a key piece in this year's team. He was doing better than Nunez, but we kept playing Nunez more-- not a peep from Brock. He's a true team player who always gives is all.

 

I'm glad we kept him, but I can't promise he won't be in some of my trade suggestions this winter.