A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[mvp 78]

I've always been of the opinion that Vazquez is overrated as a defender. I'm with moon, go with Leon/Swihart.

 

I think it's Leon/Swihart in the playoffs. It'll be Vaz/Swihart April 2019.

[notin]

1) Swihart can do more than catch.

2) Not using 3 catchers is not a good guide to evaluating the value of having 3 catchers. managers often do not PH for their catcher out of fear that the back-up might get hurt during the game. Having 3 catchers makes the first PH opportunity much more palatable for a manager.

3) Our catcher OPS is .554. It is pretty significant PH'ing someone like Moreland (.813) vs a RHP or Pearce (1.285) vs a LHP, even if it just for 1 AB.

 

Teams also use their bullpen with more regularity in the post-season.

 

Last season, teams used their starters for 5.5 IP/ start. This season , starters have gone an average of 5.4 IP/start.

 

This means in a full game, teams are using their bullpens for 3.6 IP/game, a slight increase over last season. By the same token that Moreland or Pearce might be better than Leon, would't you rather see Poyner (.125) over Velasquez (.279) or Thornburg (.270) or Eovladi (.301) or Wright (.239) or Brasier (.220) or Johnson (.225) or Pomeranz (.240) in a key situation against a dangerous LHP?

 

You're just valuing the one potentially key pinch-hit appearance over one potentially key opposing at-bat. If you really believe the biggest team weakness is bullpen, then why should the Sox use that final roster spot to shore up the lineup, which is the biggest strength of the team this year?

[notin]

I think it's Leon/Swihart in the playoffs. It'll be Vaz/Swihart April 2019.

 

Or Leon/Swihart.

 

Although if some other team overvalues Swihart, he might be a decent trading chip. I think you will (dis)agree that a Swihart/Devers swap for deGrom makes sense...

[mvp 78]

Or Leon/Swihart.

 

Although if some other team overvalues Swihart, he might be a decent trading chip.

 

I think TS values Swihart more highly than MLB GM's. You could probably move him for a AAAA reliever.

 

I don't think they would dump Vazquez since they just extended his contract this offseason.

[moonslav59]

I've always been of the opinion that Vasquez is overrated as a defender. I'm with moon, go with Leon/Swihart.

 

I'm for all 3.

 

I am having my doubts about Vaz's defense as well, but I think he handles the pitchers better than Swihart.

[notin]

I think TS values Swihart more highly than MLB GM's. You could probably move him for a AAAA reliever.

 

I don't think they would dump Vazquez since they just extended his contract this offseason.

 

I have no idea how much other teams value Swihart, but he is the best trading chip among the 3 Sox catchers because he is not as horrible defensively as previously thought, he is the youngest, he has the most potential, and he makes the least amount of money.

 

I do think he gets more back than an AAAA reliever. Devin Mesoraco was traded for Matt Harvey this year, and I think we can agree Harvey is not an AAAA reliever. Even if any MLB GM valued Mesoraco more than Swihart, probably not by all that much, given Mesoraco's history of significant injuries and his massively greater salary ($13mill next season). That's a fairly big difference in money taken on and what was still obtained in return for a player who Fangraphs says has only been worth 0.4 fWAR per season each of the past 2 years. If Swihart has the potential to reach that value, do you think it is really impossible to get back even an average starting pitcher under a short contract for him? Especially since Swihart still makes the league minimum for another year?

[moonslav59]

Teams also use their bullpen with more regularity in the post-season.

 

Last season, teams used their starters for 5.5 IP/ start. This season , starters have gone an average of 5.4 IP/start.

 

This means in a full game, teams are using their bullpens for 3.6 IP/game, a slight increase over last season. By the same token that Moreland or Pearce might be better than Leon, would't you rather see Poyner (.125) over Velasquez (.279) or Thornburg (.270) or Eovladi (.301) or Wright (.239) or Brasier (.220) or Johnson (.225) or Pomeranz (.240) in a key situation against a dangerous LHP?

 

You're just valuing the one potentially key pinch-hit appearance over one potentially key opposing at-bat. If you really believe the biggest team weakness is bullpen, then why should the Sox use that final roster spot to shore up the lineup, which is the biggest strength of the team this year?

 

Good points, but I'm expecting our strong starting pitching to go deeper than 5 2/3 innings, and even if they don't, I think just about every pen arm could pitch in all 5 games without experiencing fatigue, unless one game goes 16 innings.

 

I doubt Poyner makes the roster. He was held down in AAA while many of our current RP'ers were struggling.

 

If we go with 12 pitchers, I'm guessing it's a long man like Wright, Pom, Johnson of Velazquez, so we can handle a 16 inning game or a couple games where the starter exits early.

 

If we're using 10 pitchers in back-to-back games, chances are it doesn't matter who our 25th man is.

[notin]

Good points, but I'm expecting our strong starting pitching to go deeper than 5 2/3 innings, and even if they don't, I think just about every pen arm could pitch in all 5 games without experiencing fatigue, unless one game goes 16 innings.

 

I doubt Poyner makes the roster. He was held down in AAA while many of our current RP'ers were struggling.

 

If we go with 12 pitchers, I'm guessing it's a long man like Wright, Pom, Johnson of Velazquez, so we can handle a 16 inning game or a couple games where the starter exits early.

 

If we're using 10 pitchers in back-to-back games, chances are it doesn't matter who our 25th man is.

 

Wright is another possibility. Certainly Wakefield proved his worth as a reliever in 2004 by taking some serious lumps over 3+ innings in that total beat down game 3 of the ALCS...

[notin]

I'm for all 3.

 

I am having my doubts about Vaz's defense as well, but I think he handles the pitchers better than Swihart.

 

Actually, if the Sox had some sort of Dave Roberts/Quinton Berry type to steal a key base, that last roster spot might be have another argument. Right now, who is their best pinch running option? Brandon Philips was not added to the 40-man roster in time to be that guy. And Nunez is not running like he did in previous seasons. Hopefully the Sox won't need to steal a key base. (As Leon s the most likely Sox player to be run for, Swihart is an option there.)

[moonslav59]

Actually, if the Sox had some sort of Dave Roberts/Quinton Berry type to steal a key base, that last roster spot might be have another argument. Right now, who is their best pinch running option? Brandon Philips was not added to the 40-man roster in time to be that guy. And Nunez is not running like he did in previous seasons. Hopefully the Sox won't need to steal a key base. (As Leon s the most likely Sox player to be run for, Swihart is an option there.)

 

Swihart or Lin might be our best bench runners next to Wright, of course.

[moonslav59]

Wright is another possibility. Certainly Wakefield proved his worth as a reliever in 2004 by taking some serious lumps over 3+ innings in that total beat down game 3 of the ALCS...

 

I'm all for Wright, if he shows life this September.

 

Bringing in Wright after Sale would be tantalizing.

[Bellhorn04]

Wright is another possibility. Certainly Wakefield proved his worth as a reliever in 2004 by taking some serious lumps over 3+ innings in that total beat down game 3 of the ALCS...

 

And then pitched 3 scoreless extra innings in Game 5!

[Bellhorn04]

If you really believe the biggest team weakness is bullpen, then why should the Sox use that final roster spot to shore up the lineup, which is the biggest strength of the team this year?

 

Good point, methinks.

[notin]

Swihart or Lin might be our best bench runners next to Wright, of course.

 

Well, Wright does have some experience. (Actually, Pomeranz does, but he should probably not be used that was if he is in the bullpen.) And Porcello is showing he can be a great pinch hitter, as he has the highest OPS on the team (1.143). (Sarcasm, folks)

 

Lin is not gong to the post-season, unless one of Holt or Nunez is injured. Not to mention, he has 6 SBs and 10 CS for his career above AA ball. He might not be the best option for a key steal. Tony Renda (the "Moonlight Graham" of the 2018 Sox) has had more success stealing bases, and his chances of making the Sox post-season roster are not much greater than mine...

[sk7326]

The best option to steal a base is Castillo, which also is not happening.

[Nick]

Well, Wright does have some experience. (Actually, Pomeranz does, but he should probably not be used that was if he is in the bullpen.) And Porcello is showing he can be a great pinch hitter, as he has the highest OPS on the team (1.143). (Sarcasm, folks)

 

And Wright can be used as a pinch runner. I've seen him dive back to a base, unlike other pitchers. He's a warrior.

[moonslav59]

And Wright can be used as a pinch runner. I've seen him dive back to a base, unlike other pitchers. He's a warrior.

 

How about a Pete Rose type barrel into the catcher at home plate?

[moonslav59]

A look at the AL Starting Pitcher ERA- rankings of the 5 contending teams:

 

1. Sale 44

3. Bauer 50

4. Kluber 62

5. Verlander 67

6. Clevinger 70

7. G Cole 70

9. Rodriguez 75

10. Morton 77

11. M Fiers 79

12. Carrasco 79

14. Price 81

15. Severina 82

16. Sabbathia 82

17. Keuchel 85

19. Manaea 86

20. Cahil 87

22. Tanaka 89

26. JA Happ 91

30. Porcello 94

 

 

[moonslav59]

A look at the AL Starting Pitcher ERA- rankings of the 5 contending teams:

 

1. Sale 44

3. Bauer 50

4. Kluber 62

5. Verlander 67

6. Clevinger 70

7. G Cole 70

9. Rodriguez 75

10. Morton 77

11. M Fiers 79

12. Carrasco 79

14. Price 81

15. Severina 82

16. Sabbathia 82

17. Keuchel 85

19. Manaea 86

20. Cahil 87

22. Tanaka 89

26. JA Happ 91

30. Porcello 94

 

 

 

The Guardians have 4 starters out of the top 12!

 

The Astros have 4 in the top 17.

 

The Red Sox have 4 in 30.

 

The Yanks have 4 from #15 to #26.

 

The A's have 3 from #11 to #20, but one is out hurt.

 

 

We don't hear much talk about the Guardians. They have 4 top starters, Miller coming back from injury and two of the best hitters in MLB in Ramirez and Lindor. They also have 3 guys on pace for over 30 HRs and 95+ RBIs.

Edited September 7, 2018 by moonslav59

[OH FOY]

What's going on with Sale. That shoulder has to be a problem. Looks like the Sox are trying to time this, so they have him long enough, to get through the Play-offs, and use Off-Season to see how he does. No way they are resting him anymore for innings Pitched. He has to get some work by this time.

If his Shoulder is Chronic, Houston we have a problem.

Since July 6th, he has Pitched 30 innings. 2 Months ago. Not buying the rest thing anymore.

Edited September 7, 2018 by OH FOY!

[jacksonianmarch]

Every top 4 team in the AL is loaded for bear. The only one with really no major warts IMO is Houston. They’ve got offense, speed, starting pitching, middle relief, and a damn good (albeit awful person) closer in Osuna. The Yanks bugaboo over the season as a whole has been SP and timely hitting. The Sox only weakness is middle relief, otherwise they’re deadly everywhere else. The Guardians have offense, but you’ve also got to remember that their best pitcher is likely out for the year (Bauer). Kluber, Carrasco and Clevenger is a solid 1-3, but Bauer in there would really have put a solid top 4 out there. The Guardians have improved their pen with Cimber and Hand, but they need Miller in the middle and Allen to not blow it as bad as he’s done this year. Their offense is loaded and consider how crazy it’d be with Donaldson, who’s already on a rehab assignment. The Sox, you all know them. Premium offense, speed, and now defense with Kinsler at 2b. The SP is a shade below Houston’s in terms of depth, but that’s assuming Morton is healthy and right now he isn’t. Middle relief will be the Sox only bugaboo as Kimbrel is about as good as it gets. You’re gonna see what Brasier is made of, as I expect him to be heavily used in clutch situations. And in depth on the Yankees, our ace has fallen down for the second year in a row. We got Sevy squared away after his WC debacle, but we will need him for more this time. Happ, Tanaka and CC are a solid 2-4, but we need Sevy to be Sevy. He’s the only 1 of the four who can dominate even when he’s a little off. The other guys are touch and feel pitchers and don’t have large margins for error. The offense has been putrid sine Judge went down. Didi returns tonight. The team of the last 6 weeks will likely not be the team that plays in the playoffs, but that’s not a give . The Yanks have the biggest boom or bust potential of all 4 teams as they’re slated for a one game play in and have played like s*** since Judge dropped out. Our pen, which really put us in a good place for the playoffs, has also taken a hit since we lost our best guy in Chapman. He’s a big key for us. As it is, injuries have limited our ceiling and if we don’t get healthy, we may get lucky in the WC game, but we’ll get wiped out by the sox Edited September 7, 2018 by jacksonianmarch

[moonslav59]

What's going on with Sale. That shoulder has to be a problem. Looks like the Sox are trying to time this, so they have him long enough, to get through the Play-offs, and use Off-Season to see how he does. No way they are resting him anymore for innings Pitched. He has to get some work by this time.

If his Shoulder is Chronic, Houston we have a problem.

Since July 6th, he has Pitched 30 innings. 2 Months ago. Not buying the rest thing anymore.

 

He looked as good as I've ever seen in the one game back after the first DL (5 IP- 1 H- 0 ER- 12 Ks- 0 BB). I'm hopeful he will be super sharp again, but I think the Sox want to minimize any chance he gets hurt during the regular season. My guess is he starts 2-3 games brfore the playoffs start.

[moonslav59]

Every top 4 team in the AL is loaded for bear. The only one with really no major warts IMO is Houston. They’ve got offense, speed, starting pitching, middle relief, and a damn good (albeit awful person) closer in Osuna. The Yanks bugaboo over the season as a whole has been SP and timely hitting. The Sox only weakness is middle relief, otherwise they’re deadly everywhere else. The Guardians have offense, but you’ve also got to remember that their best pitcher is likely out for the year (Bauer). Kluber, Carrasco and Clevenger is a solid 1-3, but Bauer in there would really have put a solid top 4 out there. The Guardians have improved their pen with Cimber and Hand, but they need Miller in the middle and Allen to not blow it as bad as he’s done this year. Their offense is loaded and consider how crazy it’d be with Donaldson, who’s already on a rehab assignment. The Sox, you all know them. Premium offense, speed, and now defense with Kinsler at 2b. The SP is a shade below Houston’s in terms of depth, but that’s assuming Morton is healthy and right now he isn’t. Middle relief will be the Sox only bugaboo as Kimbrel is about as good as it gets. You’re gonna see what Brasier is made of, as I expect him to be heavily used in clutch situations. And in depth on the Yankees, our ace has fallen down for the second year in a row. We got Sevy squared away after his WC debacle, but we will need him for more this time. Happ, Tanaka and CC are a solid 2-4, but we need Sevy to be Sevy. He’s the only 1 of the four who can dominate even when he’s a little off. The other guys are touch and feel pitchers and don’t have large margins for error. The offense has been putrid sine Judge went down. Didi returns tonight. The team of the last 6 weeks will likely not be the team that plays in the playoffs, but that’s not a give . The Yanks have the biggest boom or bust potential of all 4 teams as they’re slated for a one game play in and have played like s*** since Judge dropped out. Our pen, which really put us in a good place for the playoffs, has also taken a hit since we lost our best guy in Chapman. He’s a big key for us. As it is, injuries have limited our ceiling and if we don’t get healthy, we may get lucky in the WC game, but we’ll get wiped out by the sox

 

I guess there's a chance Sevy and Tanaka get their act together and CC does his thing, but I doubt they all do, and I think you need all 3 to be on top of their game.

 

I like our top 3-4 starts as much as anyone's, if not more.

 

I like our offense more than anyone's.

 

Our defense ranks #1 in UZR/150. I'm happy thinking they are a top 6 defensive team in MLB.

 

Our team base running is pretty darn good.

 

Our closer has struggled, but at least he's not on the DL or jail-worthy.

 

Our pen has been shaky but still ranks pretty highly despite not having many big names besides Kimbrel.

 

I am very high on Cora.

 

I think we have less holes than anyone else, and our weakest links are still pretty darn good.

[OH FOY]

Toughest thing for Fans to do is throw everything out from Regular Season, and start fresh for the Play-offs. Different animal. Teams that show me the best Mental toughness, are usually I am concerned about.

Then there is this. "Nothing else matters, except for the little lump of dirt, in the middle of the Field". - Earl Weaver. He should know after what the 69 Mets did to his Powerhouse team.

Still say the 2013 Red Sox team, was one of the best mentally tough teams I have ever seen.

Edited September 7, 2018 by OH FOY!

[jacksonianmarch]

Tanaka and Happ have been very good. CC has alternated good starts with bad. Sevy has been terrible. I can live with CC as the 4 with Tanaka and Happ in the top 3. We need Sevy to snag the 1 or 2 starter role

[OH FOY]

Every top 4 team in the AL is loaded for bear. The only one with really no major warts IMO is Houston. They’ve got offense, speed, starting pitching, middle relief, and a damn good (albeit awful person) closer in Osuna. The Yanks bugaboo over the season as a whole has been SP and timely hitting. The Sox only weakness is middle relief, otherwise they’re deadly everywhere else. The Guardians have offense, but you’ve also got to remember that their best pitcher is likely out for the year (Bauer). Kluber, Carrasco and Clevenger is a solid 1-3, but Bauer in there would really have put a solid top 4 out there. The Guardians have improved their pen with Cimber and Hand, but they need Miller in the middle and Allen to not blow it as bad as he’s done this year. Their offense is loaded and consider how crazy it’d be with Donaldson, who’s already on a rehab assignment. The Sox, you all know them. Premium offense, speed, and now defense with Kinsler at 2b. The SP is a shade below Houston’s in terms of depth, but that’s assuming Morton is healthy and right now he isn’t. Middle relief will be the Sox only bugaboo as Kimbrel is about as good as it gets. You’re gonna see what Brasier is made of, as I expect him to be heavily used in clutch situations. And in depth on the Yankees, our ace has fallen down for the second year in a row. We got Sevy squared away after his WC debacle, but we will need him for more this time. Happ, Tanaka and CC are a solid 2-4, but we need Sevy to be Sevy. He’s the only 1 of the four who can dominate even when he’s a little off. The other guys are touch and feel pitchers and don’t have large margins for error. The offense has been putrid sine Judge went down. Didi returns tonight. The team of the last 6 weeks will likely not be the team that plays in the playoffs, but that’s not a give . The Yanks have the biggest boom or bust potential of all 4 teams as they’re slated for a one game play in and have played like s*** since Judge dropped out. Our pen, which really put us in a good place for the playoffs, has also taken a hit since we lost our best guy in Chapman. He’s a big key for us. As it is, injuries have limited our ceiling and if we don’t get healthy, we may get lucky in the WC game, but we’ll get wiped out by the sox

 

Your great Yankee teams would grind you to death, they would beat you mentally, as well as on the Field.

[jacksonianmarch]

And this one doesn’t seem to have that quality, I agree

[sk7326]

Every top 4 team in the AL is loaded for bear. The only one with really no major warts IMO is Houston. They’ve got offense, speed, starting pitching, middle relief, and a damn good (albeit awful person) closer in Osuna. The Yanks bugaboo over the season as a whole has been SP and timely hitting. The Sox only weakness is middle relief, otherwise they’re deadly everywhere else. The Guardians have offense, but you’ve also got to remember that their best pitcher is likely out for the year (Bauer). Kluber, Carrasco and Clevenger is a solid 1-3, but Bauer in there would really have put a solid top 4 out there. The Guardians have improved their pen with Cimber and Hand, but they need Miller in the middle and Allen to not blow it as bad as he’s done this year. Their offense is loaded and consider how crazy it’d be with Donaldson, who’s already on a rehab assignment. The Sox, you all know them. Premium offense, speed, and now defense with Kinsler at 2b. The SP is a shade below Houston’s in terms of depth, but that’s assuming Morton is healthy and right now he isn’t. Middle relief will be the Sox only bugaboo as Kimbrel is about as good as it gets. You’re gonna see what Brasier is made of, as I expect him to be heavily used in clutch situations. And in depth on the Yankees, our ace has fallen down for the second year in a row. We got Sevy squared away after his WC debacle, but we will need him for more this time. Happ, Tanaka and CC are a solid 2-4, but we need Sevy to be Sevy. He’s the only 1 of the four who can dominate even when he’s a little off. The other guys are touch and feel pitchers and don’t have large margins for error. The offense has been putrid sine Judge went down. Didi returns tonight. The team of the last 6 weeks will likely not be the team that plays in the playoffs, but that’s not a give . The Yanks have the biggest boom or bust potential of all 4 teams as they’re slated for a one game play in and have played like s*** since Judge dropped out. Our pen, which really put us in a good place for the playoffs, has also taken a hit since we lost our best guy in Chapman. He’s a big key for us. As it is, injuries have limited our ceiling and if we don’t get healthy, we may get lucky in the WC game, but we’ll get wiped out by the sox

 

It's baseball - no need to overthink it. The Astros are PROBABLY the favorite because of the best starting rotation. But again, it's also who can get hot for 3 weeks ... and even a 70 win team can do that. As I've noted before there has never been a team which I'd take in a "bet vs the field".

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree, it all ends up a crap shoot. If the best teams won with regularity like basketball, rings would be in Washington, but they aren't.

[Maxbialystock]

Every top 4 team in the AL is loaded for bear. The only one with really no major warts IMO is Houston. They’ve got offense, speed, starting pitching, middle relief, and a damn good (albeit awful person) closer in Osuna. The Yanks bugaboo over the season as a whole has been SP and timely hitting. The Sox only weakness is middle relief, otherwise they’re deadly everywhere else. The Guardians have offense, but you’ve also got to remember that their best pitcher is likely out for the year (Bauer). Kluber, Carrasco and Clevenger is a solid 1-3, but Bauer in there would really have put a solid top 4 out there. The Guardians have improved their pen with Cimber and Hand, but they need Miller in the middle and Allen to not blow it as bad as he’s done this year. Their offense is loaded and consider how crazy it’d be with Donaldson, who’s already on a rehab assignment. The Sox, you all know them. Premium offense, speed, and now defense with Kinsler at 2b. The SP is a shade below Houston’s in terms of depth, but that’s assuming Morton is healthy and right now he isn’t. Middle relief will be the Sox only bugaboo as Kimbrel is about as good as it gets. You’re gonna see what Brasier is made of, as I expect him to be heavily used in clutch situations. And in depth on the Yankees, our ace has fallen down for the second year in a row. We got Sevy squared away after his WC debacle, but we will need him for more this time. Happ, Tanaka and CC are a solid 2-4, but we need Sevy to be Sevy. He’s the only 1 of the four who can dominate even when he’s a little off. The other guys are touch and feel pitchers and don’t have large margins for error. The offense has been putrid sine Judge went down. Didi returns tonight. The team of the last 6 weeks will likely not be the team that plays in the playoffs, but that’s not a give . The Yanks have the biggest boom or bust potential of all 4 teams as they’re slated for a one game play in and have played like s*** since Judge dropped out. Our pen, which really put us in a good place for the playoffs, has also taken a hit since we lost our best guy in Chapman. He’s a big key for us. As it is, injuries have limited our ceiling and if we don’t get healthy, we may get lucky in the WC game, but we’ll get wiped out by the sox

 

I was going to ask you not to pontificate, but that's actually pretty thorough. I think the Yankees are hurting, but agree with "biggest boom or bust potential." I like the Sox over the Astros--see W-L records--but can't disagree Houston is awfully good and maybe without weaknesses.

 

All that said, I still believe, fervently, that the postseason is unpredictable. I think all five AL teams have a shot at the WS. it's not just the playoff format. It's also that the very best AL team has a winning % of 69% and the 5th best team, Oakland, is at 60%. One team wins 6 of 10 games and the other 7 of 10. And head to head the Athletics took 4 of 6 from the Sox.