A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

Swihart easily makes the roster as a guy who can both catch and provide some backup value on the corners. Vasquez would be nice to have on the playoff roster - but I don't really think he justifies it, especially providing no real marginal offensive value at catcher. At least you pinch-hit Leon you are going to sub him with someone who can hit.

 

We could PH for Leon and bring in Vaz, and then PH for Vaz late in the game. Besides, Swihart seems to do better with our RP'ers than our starters.

 

The other point is, we don't have anyone else with a compelling reason to be on the playoff roster, unless you think we need 12 pitchers while playing 5 games in 12 days.

Edited September 4, 2018 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

We could PH for Leon and bring in Vaz, and then PH for Vaz late in the game. Besides, Swihart seems to do better with our RP'ers than our starters.

 

The other point is, we don't have anyone else with a compelling reason to be on the playoff roster, unless you think we need 12 pitchers while playing 5 games in 12 days.

 

You mean-potentially-5 games in 7 days, after 5 days off. That's a little different, especially if the pen gets used a lot in the first game.

[moonslav59]

You mean-potentially-5 games in 7 days, after 5 days off. That's a little different, especially if the pen gets used a lot in the first game.

 

Well, having a day off (or 5) before game 1 should count, since using a pitcher game 1 could mean you use him again in game 2, if he wasn't used prior to game 1. Maybe saying 5 games in 9 days is more accurate:

 

Day Off (5)- game-game-off-game-off-game-off

 

I see that there could be a need for 12 pitchers, but I doubt it.

Edited September 4, 2018 by moonslav59

[notin]

Well, having a day off (or 5) before game 1 should count, since using a pitcher game 1 could mean you use him again in game 2, if he wasn't used prior to game 1.

 

I see that there could be a need for 12 pitchers, but I doubt it.

 

I'd rather have 12 pitchers and not need them than need 12 pitchers and not have them...

[moonslav59]

I'd rather have 12 pitchers and not need them than need 12 pitchers and not have them...

 

I think there is such a remote chance of needing 12, the value is negligible.

 

I do think wanting to PH for Vaz or Leon might and will happen. Also, if a game goes into extra innings, we may want to bring in a fresh catcher for defense.

 

I go with ...

 

3 catchers (one that can play elsewhere) & 11 pitchers.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Can anyone check to see, if we've ever used 10 different pitchers in a 2 game stretch this season?

 

(I ask about 10, because the 2 starters for game 3 & 4 will not be used in game 1 & 2, although we could use the 4th starter and go with Sale in game 4 on 3 days rest).

[moonslav59]

Sox added Brandon Phillips as a September call-up.

[FredLynn]

He had almost the same amount of PAs in June and August as July.

 

He starts playing a tiny bit more than before and does well in 1 of those 3 months.

 

I see you as the one cherry-picking.

 

Besides, 35 PAs a month is not a heck of a lot more than 27 PAs a month (May).

 

One could just as easily pick April 22nd as the time he started playing more, and he's at .527 since then. He only had 14 PAs in our first 20 games.

 

He's at .472 in his last 45 PAs. Vaz is at .530 his last 45 PAs.

 

Swi is at .670 his last 70 PAs.

 

Vaz is at .682 in his last 73 PAs.

 

Same cherry-picks for both.

 

Let me understand this: you think that a month by month (week by week? day by day?) sample size is more valuable, more telling, more accurate for Vasquez than his overall contribution to the team for the 2018 season? Is that true? Which months (weeks/days) would you like to "not count" when analyzing his performance? And as for Swihart, I thought we stipulated that it is very difficult for any player to play one day then rest 3-4 days, then play again. Didn't we agree on that? So then do you really think that the time before Vas got injured (and hence more playing time for Swihart) should be as good an indicator of performance as the period of time when he was in the lineup more often? I say when you play regularly you get sharper....and that is what happened to Swihart.

Now who is really cherry picking?

[Bellhorn04]

Let me understand this: you think that a month by month (week by week? day by day?) sample size is more valuable, more telling, more accurate for Vasquez than his overall contribution to the team for the 2018 season? Is that true? Which months (weeks/days) would you like to "not count" when analyzing his performance? And as for Swihart, I thought we stipulated that it is very difficult for any player to play one day then rest 3-4 days, then play again. Didn't we agree on that? So then do you really think that the time before Vas got injured (and hence more playing time for Swihart) should be as good an indicator of performance as the period of time when he was in the lineup more often? I say when you play regularly you get sharper....and that is what happened to Swihart.

Now who is really cherry picking?

 

What do you have to say about the fact that Swihart is trending down again?

 

His OPS peaked at 617 on July 30. It's back down to 576.

Edited September 5, 2018 by Bellhorn04

[FredLynn]

What do you have to say about the fact that Swihart is trending down again?

 

His OPS peaked at 617 on August 30. It's back down to 576.

 

I look at his performance since he got more playing time...not just the past week or two.

[Bellhorn04]

I look at his performance since he got more playing time...not just the past week or two.

 

July 30, not August 30. I mistyped there.

[moonslav59]

Let me understand this: you think that a month by month (week by week? day by day?) sample size is more valuable, more telling, more accurate for Vasquez than his overall contribution to the team for the 2018 season? Is that true? Which months (weeks/days) would you like to "not count" when analyzing his performance? And as for Swihart, I thought we stipulated that it is very difficult for any player to play one day then rest 3-4 days, then play again. Didn't we agree on that? So then do you really think that the time before Vas got injured (and hence more playing time for Swihart) should be as good an indicator of performance as the period of time when he was in the lineup more often? I say when you play regularly you get sharper....and that is what happened to Swihart.

Now who is really cherry picking?

 

I never use most recent small sample sizes to place value or future projections om. I do occasionally use a recent sample size to counter someone else's recent or small sample size.

 

I've admitted I think Swihart is a better hitter and has more upside on offense, despite no evidence supporting Swihart, except his last 60-80 PAs, or to be more precise an even shorter tiny sample size back in July that has fuelded this whole debate about him being some offensive god or something.

 

Yes, it's hard to put up good numbers, when you hardly play steady at all. That has nothing to do with this debate. Swihart has played sparingly all year. He's actually barely played more after Vaz's injury than from April 20th to Vaz's injury.

 

Vaz does have bad defensive metrics this year, and he started off awful on offense while playing way more than Swihart. So what? That doesn't make me forget 2017 or his previous 60-70 PAs before getting hurt. That sample size is way, way bigger than any Swihart sample size of doing well. Looking at just the numbers, any numbers, except your cherry-picked numbers based on some apparent big turning point where Swihart went from 27 PAs a month to 35 and suddenly is apparently no used sparingly anymore, whicj is what caused him to apparently start hitting like he always could/would have had he been played a lot all along.

 

The guy was super white hot 38 PAs streak way back in July. He's been at .470 in the 41 PAs since then as he has been "apparently" playing more. If we are talking recent sample sizes, why not look most recent?

 

Why can't I look at Vaz's most recent sample size, before his injury? Why can't I look at all of 2017's numbers? Why can't we compare all 2018 numbers or 2017-2018 combined? I'm supposed to get all gah gah over 38 PAs in July, and if I don't, I'm called a cherry-picker.

 

I haven't even brought up defense or catcher-pitcher relationships, which is clearly the main reason Swihart hardly catches when Leon & Vaz are healthy.

 

Again, I;m in agreement that Swihart is likely to hit better than Vaz going forwards, even though I do not see the data I usually use to support it.

 

I don't want him catching hardly anyone on our rotation pitchers. He could hit .800 and Vaz .600 over 500 PAs, and I'd still take Vaz. (I doubt Swi is 200 better than Vaz.)

 

[moonslav59]

I look at his performance since he got more playing time...not just the past week or two.

 

...and I'm the cherry-picker.

[Bellhorn04]

moon, as you have said before, it's pretty easy to tell how the team evaluates each catcher's defensive skills by the playing time they get.

[moonslav59]

Another view...

 

From April 1st to July 20th, Swihart only caught 3 times.

 

99 PAs .513 OPS

 

After starting to catch more often, he's...

 

89 PAs .719 OPS

 

Since Vaz went on the DL (July 30th)... Here's his chance to prove to the world...

 

45 PAs .472

 

One could argue he really began playing more on June 3rd. Ops since then...

 

.632.

 

There are all sorts of sample size we can choose.

 

The best recent sample size I can find is July 6 to now...

 

.746 in 76 PAs (I'm not sure why that date should be chosen.)

 

Is that really a number that screams to play him despite the obvious problems he has with our SP'ers?

 

 

[FredLynn]

...and I'm the cherry-picker.

 

How is using the largest most relevant sample size cherry picking?

 

Look at his game logs....

 

He played April 10, 14, and 17

Played April 22, then 27

Played May 3, 6, 14, 17, 18, 26

 

Huge gaps between games. No one can prove themself that way.

Edited September 5, 2018 by FredLynn

[Maxbialystock]

How is using the largest most relevant sample size cherry picking?

 

Look at his game logs....

 

He played April 10, 14, and 17

Played April 22, then 27

Played May 3, 6, 14, 17, 18, 26

 

Huge gaps between games. No one can prove themself that way.

 

Honestly, but who gives a s*** about a catcher's hitting? Have you forgotten the great Saltalamacchia?

 

Did you watch tonight's Atlanta game with Leon behind the plate? He didn't hit s*** and probably left a thousand guys on base. But you better believe he made a difference for Porcello who struggled--hitting two guys, including one in the damn helmet--but who somehow made it through 5 innings, giving up 1 run, a solo dinger. Get back to me when you see Swihart do something like that.

 

By the way, I like Swihart, but as a backup at C, 1b, 3B, LF and RF.

[oldtimer]

Honestly, but who gives a s*** about a catcher's hitting? Have you forgotten the great Saltalamacchia?

 

Did you watch tonight's Atlanta game with Leon behind the plate? He didn't hit s*** and probably left a thousand guys on base. But you better believe he made a difference for Porcello who struggled--hitting two guys, including one in the damn helmet--but who somehow made it through 5 innings, giving up 1 run, a solo dinger. Get back to me when you see Swihart do something like that.

 

By the way, I like Swihart, but as a backup at C, 1b, 3B, LF and RF.

 

Leon did have a batting line of 0-5, 2 so and 7 LOB. Pretty bad but his defense was good. Our pitching looked good last night as well with Vaz in the lineup. Its not all about the catcher's defense and pitch calling.

[moonslav59]

How is using the largest most relevant sample size cherry picking?

 

Look at his game logs....

 

He played April 10, 14, and 17

Played April 22, then 27

Played May 3, 6, 14, 17, 18, 26

 

Huge gaps between games. No one can prove themself that way.

 

What largest?

 

Season?

.576 Swihart

.565 Leon

.545 Vaz

 

That's the sample size that shows Swihart should start, or play more, or make the playoff roster over Vaz?

 

I thought it was all about "once he started playing more."

 

 

2017-2018 combined is larger than 2018...

 

.660 Vaz

.608 Leon

.579 Swihart

 

 

How about career?

 

.672 Swihart

.643 Leon

.637 Vaz

 

35 OPS points is worth upending SP'er comfort, success and preferences?

 

[moonslav59]

Leon did have a batting line of 0-5, 2 so and 7 LOB. Pretty bad but his defense was good. Our pitching looked good last night as well with Vaz in the lineup. Its not all about the catcher's defense and pitch calling.

 

Defense and pitch calling is not all there is to a catcher-pitcher relationship, but yes, it's a heck of a lot more important than offense.

 

The pitcher-catcher combo goes up against 30-40 opponent PAs per game, sometimes more. Our catcher gets up 3-5 times a game on offense.

[moonslav59]

The Rays would be 1/2 game behind the division leader, the Rockies in the NL West.

 

They'd be 1 behind the Braves and 3 behind the Guardians.

[dannycater]

How bout Porcello's hitting? .429...Bradley can take some notes.

[Bellhorn04]

How bout Porcello's hitting? .429...Bradley can take some notes.

 

Rick's career line is 205/205/256 - 462 OPS - in 42 plate appearances LOL

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS Update:

 

1.053 Betts

1.048 JDM

.953 Pearce (w/Sox)

 

.864 Bogey

.855 Beni

 

.781 Moreland

.757 Kinsler (w/Sox)

.721 Devers

.710 Holt

.709 JBJ

 

.667 Nunez

 

.576 Swihart

.553 Leon

.545 Vaz

[moonslav59]

AL Team WAR Leaders

 

Everyday Players

25.9 BOS

25.4 NYY

25.1 OAK

22.6 CLE

22.3 HOU

20.3 LAA

18.0 TBR

 

AL Rank by Position:

 

1st RF 8.5

1st DH 6.2

2nd LF 4.4

5th SS 3.8

6th 1B 1.8

7th CF 2.4

13th 3B 0.4

14th 2B 0.2

15th C (-1.5)

 

Pitching

26.6 HOU (SP: 19.5)

22.0 NYY (SP: 13.6)

19.4 BOS (SP: 14.5)

18.8 CLE (SP: 19.5)

14.8 TBR (SP: 9.7)

 

Defense by UZR/150

8.2 BOS

6.7 CLE

4.3 KCR

3.9 LAA

3.8 NYY

14.6 SEA

12.1 OAK

 

[notin]

Can anyone check to see, if we've ever used 10 different pitchers in a 2 game stretch this season?

 

(I ask about 10, because the 2 starters for game 3 & 4 will not be used in game 1 & 2, although we could use the 4th starter and go with Sale in game 4 on 3 days rest).

 

Not necessarily relevant (and difficult to look up). I might also ask how many times this year have the Sox used 3 catchers in one game.

 

But in the post-season, teams typically go to their bullpen earlier. At that point in the season, a lot of pitchers have thrown their share of innings and might not be as effective as they were in April and May. Certainly starters are more worn out. And if there is anything to Sale's injury, it might not be so easy to pencil him in for 6 or 7 innings.

 

If the Sox have a reliever or two who is not 100% or simply not having a good week, the more options to replace him the better.

 

Don't overvalue the pinch hitting. The benefit of pinch hitting for, say, Leon, really only gives you a slightly better chance at getting a necessary hit. And really, how many times per game will they be doing so? If it comes down to keeping Christian Vazquez (clearly not a good pinch hitting option) over, say, Bobby Poyner, I'll take the situational lefty in that case and take my chances of stopping the opposition...

 

Really, the only advantage to keeping 3 catchers would be if the Sox have an injury at the position that necessitates removing the catcher from the game. While that has happened

[moonslav59]

Not necessarily relevant (and difficult to look up). I might also ask how many times this year have the Sox used 3 catchers in one game.

 

But in the post-season, teams typically go to their bullpen earlier. At that point in the season, a lot of pitchers have thrown their share of innings and might not be as effective as they were in April and May. Certainly starters are more worn out. And if there is anything to Sale's injury, it might not be so easy to pencil him in for 6 or 7 innings.

 

If the Sox have a reliever or two who is not 100% or simply not having a good week, the more options to replace him the better.

 

Don't overvalue the pinch hitting. The benefit of pinch hitting for, say, Leon, really only gives you a slightly better chance at getting a necessary hit. And really, how many times per game will they be doing so? If it comes down to keeping Christian Vazquez (clearly not a good pinch hitting option) over, say, Bobby Poyner, I'll take the situational lefty in that case and take my chances of stopping the opposition...

 

Really, the only advantage to keeping 3 catchers would be if the Sox have an injury at the position that necessitates removing the catcher from the game. While that has happened

 

1) Swihart can do more than catch.

2) Not using 3 catchers is not a good guide to evaluating the value of having 3 catchers. managers often do not PH for their catcher out of fear that the back-up might get hurt during the game. Having 3 catchers makes the first PH opportunity much more palatable for a manager.

3) Our catcher OPS is .554. It is pretty significant PH'ing someone like Moreland (.813) vs a RHP or Pearce (1.285) vs a LHP, even if it just for 1 AB.

[dannycater]

Ricky is a late bloomer at the plate!!! His 42 plate appearances overall is too small a sample size (always hated that example..sample size)...

[dannycater]

I've always been of the opinion that Vasquez is overrated as a defender. I'm with moon, go with Leon/Swihart.

[OH FOY]

Still not counting out Phillips, he makes us more versatile.