A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Kimmi]

I disagree.

 

Winning builds confidence and hence more winning.

 

You can disagree, but this is another topic that has been dissected every which way, and the idea of a team with momentum having a better chance of winning its next game is pretty much incorrect.

[Kimmi]

That's a big part of it, yes. But we have also often seen the Red Sox offense shut down by some relative unknown that leaves people scratching their heads and referring to the pitcher sardonically as 'Cy'. Just the other day it was 'Cy Beeks'.

 

Even a relative unknown can be tough on the days and nights his stuff is at his best.

 

Also, how often do we see the momentum change in one inning, only to have it change back the next?

 

Momentum cannot be used as a predicting tool.

[Kimmi]

Baseball is one of the rare games where momentum can be stopped with a single pitching change

 

Or even a check swing dribbler.

[Kimmi]

Kimbrel picked the most inopportune time to turn into a lousy reliever. If he keeps it up, he won't get the contract he wants and the Red Sox will watch another team celebrate in October.

 

If Kimbrel keeps walking batters and giving up leads, the Red Sox won't be able to make him a qualifying offer.

 

The Red Sox should not offer Kimbrel a huge contract. I felt that way when he was being dominant.

 

It's better than Kimbrel falters now rather than in the postseason. Hopefully by then, he is back to being dominant.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox should not offer Kimbrel a huge contract. I felt that way when he was being dominant.

 

It's better than Kimbrel falters now rather than in the postseason. Hopefully by then, he is back to being dominant.

 

Would you offer him a QO?

 

If you did, would you hope he takes it?

[Kimmi]

Would you offer him a QO?

 

If you did, would you hope he takes it?

 

I would definitely offer him a QO, and I would hope he takes it.

 

The amount of money is higher than what I would like to pay, but I have always been a fan of offering more AAV for fewer years.

 

A QO for one year would be ideal, if he would accept it. If he doesn't, we get the draft pick. Win-win.

[Bellhorn04]

I would definitely offer him a QO, and I would hope he takes it.

 

The amount of money is higher than what I would like to pay, but I have always been a fan of offering more AAV for fewer years.

 

A QO for one year would be ideal, if he would accept it. If he doesn't, we get the draft pick. Win-win.

 

Have you checked out the new rules for compensation picks though? It looks like in some cases they're much less valuable than they used to be.

[Kimmi]

Have you checked out the new rules for compensation picks though? It looks like in some cases they're much less valuable than they used to be.

 

That might be the case, but my point isn't about having a draft pick versus having Kimbrel.

 

It's about not paying the large contract to Kimbrel. I would offer Kimbrel a moderate 2, maybe 3 year deal, and give him a QO, not necessarily in that order. If he declines all offers, at least we get some compensation in form of a pick.

[moonslav59]

I would definitely offer him a QO, and I would hope he takes it.

 

The amount of money is higher than what I would like to pay, but I have always been a fan of offering more AAV for fewer years.

 

A QO for one year would be ideal, if he would accept it. If he doesn't, we get the draft pick. Win-win.

 

Agreed, and if he turns it down, like he will, the money not spent on Kimbrel should help us get someone else plus the comp pick.

[vegasbob]

Agreed, and if he turns it down, like he will, the money not spent on Kimbrel should help us get someone else plus the comp pick.

 

Yes, a turndown of a short offer is more likely, especially if the Sox make a deep playoff run or win it all. Then Craig should be at his max value. If they crash and burn, he may get discounted a little.

[moonslav59]

Yes, a turndown of a short offer is more likely, especially if the Sox make a deep playoff run or win it all. Then Craig should be at his max value. If they crash and burn, he may get discounted a little.

 

Maybe, if he does poorly as we lose, but GMs rarely drop value on players based on small sample sizes.

[moonslav59]

Gotta love the Yanks losing by the pen.

 

Couldn't have been written any better.

 

The pen is not mightier than the sword.

[Spudboy]

Also, how often do we see the momentum change in one inning, only to have it change back the next?

 

Momentum cannot be used as a predicting tool.

 

like war.

[Spudboy]

I would definitely offer him a QO, and I would hope he takes it.

 

The amount of money is higher than what I would like to pay, but I have always been a fan of offering more AAV for fewer years.

 

A QO for one year would be ideal, if he would accept it. If he doesn't, we get the draft pick. Win-win.

 

How is losing one of the best at his position a win?

[Spudboy]

I still feel Kimbrel can be had for a reasonable deal.

[cp176]

like war.

 

I view momentum much like I do confidence. Is there a way to measure how confidence in what you do might make you better at your job? Confidence can be shaken by lots of things for instance a hostile crowd. Just had a talk with an outstanding former college athlete - 4 year football guy at a pretty good school. Momentum which leads to increased confidence is for real. I'm going to side with what almost every athlete and coach I have talked to about things like this believe in. Oh and they aren't people who believe the world is flat either. lol

[jacksonianmarch]

I still feel Kimbrel can be had for a reasonable deal.

 

Not a prayer. He will set a new record for AAV from a reliever

[moonslav59]

How is losing one of the best at his position a win?

 

Conceivably, you use the equal money it would have taken to get him, and you get someone(s) else (maybe younger). Plus, you get a draft choice.

 

It's hard to know that's a win-win ahead of time, of course.

[moonslav59]

Not a prayer. He will set a new record for AAV from a reliever

 

Agreed. And, he'll get too many years from someone as well.

[notin]

I still feel Kimbrel can be had for a reasonable deal.

 

He didn't hire an agent to get a reasonable deal...

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe, if he does poorly as we lose, but GMs rarely drop value on players based on small sample sizes.

 

I think the recency effect can come into play sometimes. When you look at what Johnny Cueto got compared to Price, it looks like some GM's were concerned about Cueto's poor numbers with KC in 2015.

[mvp 78]

Maybe, if he does poorly as we lose, but GMs rarely drop value on players based on small sample sizes.

 

Pablo Sandoval alert!

[OH FOY]

Not a prayer. He will set a new record for AAV from a reliever

 

Let him walk, got to see how he does down the stretch and Play-offs. Right now he's way out of whack. When you got .160 Hitters hitting Line Drive, singles at critical situations, and pulling the ball no less, to put a bad team ahead, he's not the Kimbrel, that's looking for Big Bucks.

Edited August 31, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

Not a prayer. He will set a new record for AAV from a reliever

 

We'll see man. Joel Sherman had a pretty good column the other day about how 2018 should be scaring teams away from big money for relievers. Wade Davis and some of the others who got paid have struggled and Chapman and Jansen have concerning health issues.

 

And Kimbrel, let's face it, has had some concerning performance issues this year.

Edited August 31, 2018 by Bellhorn04

[OH FOY]

We'll see man. Joel Sherman had a pretty good column the other day about how 2018 should be scaring teams away from big money for relievers. Wade Davis and some of the others who got paid have struggled and Chapman and Jansen have concerning health issues.

 

And Kimbrel, let's face it, has had some concerning performance issues this year.

 

Always liked Sherman. Thanks.

[OH FOY]

Here's how I see it going forward, at one time Kimbrel's fastball was top of the line, now you got 100 kids throwing as hard or harder. Hitters are catching up to him. If he had the precise control, of his 2 pitches, he could dominate again, but he cannot throw strikes, or throw different zones of the plate, for strikes. Hitters are waiting him out, for hitters counts.

Closers that don't throw strikes, precisely, at any time, are a ticking time bomb.

Koji's fastball was Kimbrel's change-up, difference was Koji threw strikes. Different speeds, but batters knew they had to swing. Then Koji had them, made it look like a strike, but it wasn't. That's Pitching.

 

Also why is he falling in love with his curveball recently? Loss of velocity? Loss of confidence. He's a Power Pitcher, pitch like one.

Edited August 31, 2018 by OH FOY!

[notin]

I think the recency effect can come into play sometimes. When you look at what Johnny Cueto got compared to Price, it looks like some GM's were concerned about Cueto's poor numbers with KC in 2015.

 

Or maybe there were some health concerns...

[moonslav59]

I think the recency effect can come into play sometimes. When you look at what Johnny Cueto got compared to Price, it looks like some GM's were concerned about Cueto's poor numbers with KC in 2015.

 

I think it had more to do with injury concerns.

[harmony]

We'll see man. Joel Sherman had a pretty good column the other day about how 2018 should be scaring teams away from big money for relievers. Wade Davis and some of the others who got paid have struggled and Chapman and Jansen have concerning health issues.

 

And Kimbrel, let's face it, has had some concerning performance issues this year.

Among relievers this year Craig Kimbrel ranks 31st in fWAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&page=1_30

 

Kimbrel ranks sixth among relievers in fWAR since joining the Red Sox in 2016:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Although fWAR may not be the best measure of a reliever's contributions, the rankings raise questions about Kimbrel's worth.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/war-and-relievers/

Edited August 31, 2018 by harmony

[notin]

 

Kimbrel ranks sixth among relievers in fWAR since joining the Red Sox in 2016:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

 

 

Or he is ranked tied for fourth with Osuna and Miller, if you look at the values....