A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

[/i]

It is very hard to figure how Beni is hitting .282/.763 since the A-S break, and yet only generate 1 HR in 131 AB's. His 18 rbi's are generally consistent with other Sox hitters , except for JDM who has 30. JDM has finally passed the slumping Betts in BA to be the Red Sox triple crown leader right now.

 

.282/.763 is not all that alarming, especially for a player pretty new to MLB.

 

The one HR is concerning, but I'm confident he will adjust.

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel picked the most inopportune time to turn into a lousy reliever. If he keeps it up, he won't get the contract he wants and the Red Sox will watch another team celebrate in October.

 

If Kimbrel keeps walking batters and giving up leads, the Red Sox won't be able to make him a qualifying offer.

 

Actually, this might be the best time to go through a rough stretch, as long as he is over it by October.

[BillyWilliams]

Kimbrel picked the most inopportune time to turn into a lousy reliever. If he keeps it up, he won't get the contract he wants and the Red Sox will watch another team celebrate in October.

 

If Kimbrel keeps walking batters and giving up leads, the Red Sox won't be able to make him a qualifying offer.

 

Nah, he's going to get paid either way.

 

He's the top closer on the market and his track record says a lot more about who he is than a few games right now.

[jacksonianmarch]

Every closer has their rough spells. Every time Kimbrel looks to fall apart he rattles off a 15 game run where he allows 5 baserunners. He’ll be fine

[moonslav59]

Every closer has their rough spells. Every time Kimbrel looks to fall apart he rattles off a 15 game run where he allows 5 baserunners. He’ll be fine

 

Agreed.

 

I don't think it's an injury. His velocity is still there.

 

I hope it's not his contract year getting inside his head.

[notin]

Agreed.

 

I don't think it's an injury. His velocity is still there.

 

I hope it's not his contract year getting inside his head.

 

The velocity has not been the issue. The control has.

[moonslav59]

The velocity has not been the issue. The control has.

 

Yes, but there is no sign it is injury related.

 

Has he ever had this type of stretch in his career before now?

[moonslav59]

We currently have 39 players on the 40 man roster plus 3 players on the 60 day DL (Pedey, M Hernandez & Maddox). That makes 42 on the roster.

 

6 Free Agents to be:

 

Kimbrel

Kelly

Pomeranz

Pearce

Eovaldi

Kinsler

 

We may only replace 2-3 of these guys from outside the system. 42-6=36 and add 2-3 free agents means we'd be at 38-39 before rule 5.

 

Bubble roster players (might be DFA'd, non-tendered or traded for a prospect not needing to be on the 40 mman roster next season):

 

Tony Renda

Justin Haley

C. Shepherd

C Smith (arb)

W Cuevas

 

Travis

Poyner

Walden

M Hernandez

R Scott

A Maddox

 

Rule 5 this December

Victor Acosta

Christopher Acosta

Yoan Aybar

Roldani Baldwin

Trey Ball

Juan Barriento

Edilson Batista

Eduard Bazardo

Danny Bethea

Jordan Betts

Marino Campana

Rusney Castillo

Michael Chavis

Luis Colmenares

Eduard Conde

Harrison Cooney

Jake Cosart

Ricardo Cubillan

Enmanuel De Jesus

Chad De La Guerra

Jhonathan Diaz

Jerry Downs

Nick Duron

Junior Espinoza

Willis Figueroa

Devon Fisher

Austin Glorius

Daniel Gonzalez

Juan Hernandez

Darwinzon Hernandez

Oscar Hernandez

Tyler Hill

Dedgar Jimenez

Trevor Kelley

Trenton Kemp

Matt Kent

Travis Lakins

Marcos Lantigua

Adam Lau

Deiner Lopez

Isaias Lucena

Chris Madera

Danny Mars

Algenis Martinez

Tate Matheny

Kevin McAvoy

Daniel McGrath

Samuel Miranda

Joseph Monge

Mark Montgomery

Jhon Nunez

Josh Ockimey

Angel Padron

Yorvin Pantoja

Yankory Pimentel

Roniel Raudes

Austin Rei

Hildemaro Requena

Denyi Reyes

Eddy Reynoso

Jeremy Rivera

Jake Romanski

Teddy Stankiewicz

Kevin Steen

Cole Sturgeon

Josh Taylor

Luke Tendler

Josh Tobias

Carlos Tovar

Kyri Washington

Jantzen Witte

 

We may want to add Feltman, if he's ML ready.

[BillyWilliams]

 

We may want to add Feltman, if he's ML ready.

 

I don't know if he's ML ready, but his family makes great hot dogs!

 

http://www.theconeyislandblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/IMG_4541.jpg

[mvp 78]

They don't want to rush Feltman. They are avoiding pitching him back to back days. He'll probably be in camp in ST, but they won't use him in Boston in 2018.

[a700hitter]

Agreed.

 

I don't think it's an injury. His velocity is still there.

 

I hope it's not his contract year getting inside his head.

He has also had the horrible health issues with his newborn. It would be very understandable if that has been a distraction from the focus of baseball.

[oldtimer]

.282/.763 is not all that alarming, especially for a player pretty new to MLB.

 

The one HR is concerning, but I'm confident he will adjust.

 

He stopped pulling the ball and he doesn't have a lot of power so CF flys won't get it done. Lots of his fouls go to the left side. His timing may be off or he may be trying to hit the other way. His average sn't too bad but very little power.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

 

Confirmed: Chris Sale is throwing on flat ground (120 feet) for the third day

[mvp 78]

He has also had the horrible health issues with his newborn. It would be very understandable if that has been a distraction from the focus of baseball.

 

It's almost like players aren't robots that you can just plug into a lineup and expect a certain outcome from!

 

This is very confusing to me!

[a700hitter]

It's almost like players aren't robots that you can just plug into a lineup and expect a certain outcome from!

 

This is very confusing to me!

They always regress to their norms like robots... don't they... except in the case of anomalies.

[moonslav59]

lmao!

[S5Dewey]

Yes, but there is no sign it is injury related.

 

Has he ever had this type of stretch in his career before now?

 

Yes. I can distinctly remember a stretch near the start of 2016 when he was 'yanking' his pitches. He couldn't find the plate with both hands and a flashlight. Fortunately his reputation preceded him and batters were swinging at a lot of pitches off the plate. That was his worst season since his rookie year.

The good news is that he did straighten it out.

[moonslav59]

Yes. I can distinctly remember a stretch near the start of 2016 when he was 'yanking' his pitches. He couldn't find the plate with both hands and a flashlight. Fortunately his reputation preceded him and batters were swinging at a lot of pitches off the plate. That was his worst season since his rookie year.

The good news is that he did straighten it out.

 

Yes, I remember now.

 

I went back to look:

 

 

ERA/OPS against/IP (Time frame)

 

2015

9.00/.956/10IP (4/18-5/25)

 

2016

 

6.43/.784/ 7 IP (4/11- 4/24)

 

8.31/.854/ 8.2 IP (6/20-8/9)

 

2018

 

5.56/.836/ 11.1 IP (7/23-8/28)

 

Each of these rough patches were followed by great stretches.

 

[moonslav59]

 

Betts passes JD in OPS (1.066 to 1.061)

 

Good to see...

 

JBJ up over .700 (.703).

 

Holt up to .720.

 

Nunez on a steady rise to .680. He was at .651 seven games ago.

 

Swihart nearing .585. He's been at .749 since JUN 26 (not counting tonight).

 

 

[Larry Cook]

 

Betts passes JD in OPS (1.066 to 1.061)

 

Good to see...

 

JBJ up over .700 (.703).

 

Holt up to .720.

 

Nunez on a steady rise to .680. He was at .651 seven games ago.

 

Swihart nearing .585. He's been at .749 since JUN 26 (not counting tonight).

 

 

 

Seems like Pearce is dropping like a rock. Is a pennant race too much for him?

[a700hitter]

Seems like Pearce is dropping like a rock. Is a pennant race too much for him?

He's a streaky guy and a useful platoon bat.

[vegasbob]

He's a streaky guy and a useful platoon bat.

 

Useful if he actually makes contact with the ball . He missed a good game tonight after his 3 K's.

[vegasbob]

 

Betts passes JD in OPS (1.066 to 1.061)

 

Good to see...

 

JBJ up over .700 (.703).

 

Holt up to .720.

 

Nunez on a steady rise to .680. He was at .651 seven games ago.

 

Swihart nearing .585. He's been at .749 since JUN 26 (not counting tonight).

 

 

 

Mookie also reclaimed the BA lead over JDM after one day out of first place.

[moonslav59]

Seems like Pearce is dropping like a rock. Is a pennant race too much for him?

 

He only starts vs lefties, so the sample size is small and scattered.

 

I expect him to rebound.

[Emp9]

He only starts vs lefties, so the sample size is small and scattered.

 

I expect him to rebound.

 

As far as last night goes, 2 out of his 3 SOs last night were him looking at borderline called strikes if I remember correctly. Some bad luck maybe?

[oldtimer]

As far as last night goes, 2 out of his 3 SOs last night were him looking at borderline called strikes if I remember correctly. Some bad luck maybe?

 

Beni also needs to bounce back. Lots of ground balls.

[notin]

Seems like Pearce is dropping like a rock. Is a pennant race too much for him?

 

There may be a reason he has never really been a starter. At 35, this isn't likely to change...

[OH FOY]

To me Pearce has always seem like a streaky hitter. Just hope he gets into one of his streaks.

[moonslav59]

We seem to have issues with getting players known to be great vs LHPs, but who just don't carry over that greatness once they are here. Maybe, it's the Fenway wall that messes them up. Maybe, it's the large RF that messes them up.

 

Cody Ross was the last one, I remember, doing well for us, but he actually was forced to play FT due to OF injuries.

 

Cody Ross:

career: .710 v RHPs/.906 v LHP

2012 w BOS: .729 v RHPs/ 1.010 v LHPs.

 

Jonny Gomes:

career: .712/.855

2013: .745/.795

2014: .510/.743

 

Chris Young:

career: .708/.823

2016: .766/.999

2017: .793/.590

 

I may be missing someone, but it looks like they almost always do better than the norn vs RHPs and are up & down vs LHPs.

 

Pearce:

career: .739/.858

2018 all: .785/1.049

w BOS: .762/1.299

 

 

[Kimmi]

2004 ALCS would like a word with you....

 

Right. The Yankees had all the momentum in the world in the ALCS. Until they didn't.