A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Slasher9]

Momentum is another one of those myth type things.

 

Momentum does not hold any predictive ability for the postseason, for the next series, for the next game, or even for the next inning.

 

Momentum does exist in the descriptive sense, but not in the predictive sense.

 

2004 ALCS would like a word with you....

[moonslav59]

Momentum is another one of those myth type things.

 

Momentum does not hold any predictive ability for the postseason, for the next series, for the next game, or even for the next inning.

 

Momentum does exist in the descriptive sense, but not in the predictive sense.

 

I disagree.

 

Winning builds confidence and hence more winning.

[Emp9]

The one thing I don't care about is getting 117 wins. In fact, I don't want the Sox to set that record. As a sports fan, the biggest disappointment for me was watching the Patriots go 18-0 and then lose the Super Bowl. I also saw the Mariners win 116 and even make the World Series, and I absolutely do not want to see the Sox in the same situation...

 

Same here Notin. I just want enough wins to keep home field advantage throughout the post season.

[moonslav59]

Same here Notin. I just want enough wins to keep home field advantage throughout the post season.

 

Me, too.

[cp176]

I disagree.

 

Winning builds confidence and hence more winning.

 

Right again - Coaches and players would certainly agree. People who have practical experience in athletics at any level probably would agree with you. Because it can't be measured does not mean that it can't happen.

[Bellhorn04]

So we're onto the topic of momentum now, I see.

 

The way I see it, you can find a lot of examples where a team seems to have momentum.

 

But you can also find a lot of examples of apparent momentum coming to a screeching halt.

 

Therein lies the rub, as Shakespeare said.

[S5Dewey]

So we're onto the topic of momentum now, I see.

 

The way I see it, you can find a lot of examples where a team seems to have momentum.

 

But you can also find a lot of examples of apparent momentum coming to a screeching halt.

 

Therein lies the rub, as Shakespeare said.

 

Obviously momentum doesn't accurately predict wins. If it did once a team wins a few games in a row the roll would go on and on and on building on itself. And that doesn't happen.

 

That's because baseball is dependent on pitching. Unless there are some statistics someplace to disprove it I think we still agree that good pitching beats good hitting. A team can have a lot of momentum going on but facing Max Scherzer will deflate that momentum in a hurry.

 

However, I will stand by that, all things being somewhere near equal, momentum is valuable. It won't accurately predict wins but it will predict the likelihood of wins.

[Bellhorn04]

Obviously momentum doesn't accurately predict wins. If it did once a team wins a few games in a row the roll would go on and on and on building on itself. And that doesn't happen.

 

That's because baseball is dependent on pitching. Unless there are some statistics someplace to disprove it I think we still agree that good pitching beats good hitting. A team can have a lot of momentum going on but facing Max Scherzer will deflate that momentum in a hurry.

 

That's a big part of it, yes. But we have also often seen the Red Sox offense shut down by some relative unknown that leaves people scratching their heads and referring to the pitcher sardonically as 'Cy'. Just the other day it was 'Cy Beeks'.

 

Even a relative unknown can be tough on the days and nights his stuff is at his best.

[SoxnCycles]

That's a big part of it, yes. But we have also often seen the Red Sox offense shut down by some relative unknown that leaves people scratching their heads and referring to the pitcher sardonically as 'Cy'. Just the other day it was 'Cy Beeks'.

 

Even a relative unknown can be tough on the days and nights his stuff is at his best.

 

And those "got shut down" games come, as often as not, right after the offense puts up 8+ the previous night.

[oldtimer]

That's a big part of it, yes. But we have also often seen the Red Sox offense shut down by some relative unknown that leaves people scratching their heads and referring to the pitcher sardonically as 'Cy'. Just the other day it was 'Cy Beeks'.

 

Even a relative unknown can be tough on the days and nights his stuff is at his best.

 

When hitters are in a serious slump, even the average pitches can look good. We have had both Betts and Beni off for a while so the Rays weaker pitches looked good. Still Bogaerts and JDM were getting their hits, which indicates to me it was partially the slumping players that made the pitches look good. Last night Betts looked better with 3 walks and a hit. Beni was,1 for 5 so he may still need to find his way out of a slump. One HR since the AS break indicates he is not hitting with as much authority as he had been.

[moonslav59]

Think of that run the Rockies made in '07 to make the playoffs and cruise to the WS, where they met the Sox and were stopped hard.

 

Nobody is claiming momentum lasts forever just as slumping teams rarely stay slumping for super long times. If they suck, sure, but then it's not really a slump, is it?

 

The Sox have gone on a couple incredible stretches this year. You could feel they knew they were going to find a way to win. They've also had some lulls where they look like they are grasping at straws.

 

As a player, I have felt both feelings, and I truly believe that which mindset you have is a big part of the game. Of course, there are 25 players on a baseball team, and not everyone is in the same mindset at the same time, but winning 7 out of 8 most likely puts most in the positive mindset.

[OH FOY]

Love wins like last night. Never give up is the only mindset I want. Good teams put pressure on weak teams, especially in critical situations.

Against the good teams, you'll find out who has the mental toughness , to win it in tight situations.

The Mental toughness starts, with never give up attitude.

Edited August 29, 2018 by OH FOY!

[S5Dewey]

That's a big part of it, yes. But we have also often seen the Red Sox offense shut down by some relative unknown that leaves people scratching their heads and referring to the pitcher sardonically as 'Cy'. Just the other day it was 'Cy Beeks'.

 

Even a relative unknown can be tough on the days and nights his stuff is at his best.

 

That's the kind of thing I was referring to when I used Scherzer as an example - a guy who has all the planets and stars aligned so that he has Scherzer-like stuff.

 

As I said originally, everything being somewhere near equal I believe momentum exists. Can I prove it statistically? No. But by the same token the doubters can't prove it doesn't exist because of those variables.

 

Baseball is a random game!

[Bellhorn04]

That's the kind of thing I was referring to when I used Scherzer as an example - a guy who has all the planets and stars aligned so that he has Scherzer-like stuff.

 

As I said originally, everything being somewhere near equal I believe momentum exists. Can I prove it statistically? No. But by the same token the doubters can't prove it doesn't exist because of those variables.

 

Baseball is a random game!

 

Baseball isn't totally random by any means, but there really is a big pile of randomness at work. Last night's game for example. When it was 4-1 it looked like a nice little sleepytime win. If someone had told you then it would end up 8-7 Sox in a walkoff you would have said they were out of their f***ing mind LOL

[jacksonianmarch]

I disagree.

 

Winning builds confidence and hence more winning.

 

Baseball is one of the rare games where momentum can be stopped with a single pitching change

[OH FOY]

We failed in one phase of the game, and picked up the slack in other area. But, it was picked up. Nobody quit, that's important. Other games could go other way.

[OH FOY]

Baseball is one of the rare games where momentum can be stopped with a single pitching change

 

Earl Weaver "Nothing is more important than that little hump of dirt in middle of Field".

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox have been mentally tougher than the bad teams. This is something I wish to see out of my squad. The sox face a team like the Marlins in Fenway and going down 2 in the 8th was essentially a "so what" kind of thing. Being mentally tough is a good thing, but how many times can your offense bail out your pen

[OH FOY]

Still time left. And we are going to play some tough teams. Maybe a kick in the ass like doing a poor job against the Marlins good wake up call.

Its getting crunch time.

[jacksonianmarch]

Still time left. And we are going to play some tough teams. Maybe a kick in the ass like doing a poor job against the Marlins good wake up call.

 

I think the wakeup call will come vs Houston. They just got healthy. Altuve, Correa and Springer are back. By the time the sox play them, they should be able to shake off the rust. I have a feeling the Stros will test the heck out of Boston. I say the Stros because the Yankees don't count. Every time the sox and yanks play, no matter who is the best or what the playoff concerns are, the suspense heightens.

[Slasher9]

Think of that run the Rockies made in '07 to make the playoffs and cruise to the WS, where they met the Sox and were stopped hard.

.

 

the rockies had to sit on their hands for over a week waiting for the sox to comeback vs cleveland. nothing stops momentum quicker than 9 days off........

[OH FOY]

I feel these 4 inning starters are killing us too. I would seriously think maybe do a Rays thing, and use the Starters in the middle innings, to get to back end of BP.

When E-Rod, and Sale come back, things will change. Wright will help too, had good outing last night in Pawtucket, in 2 innings.

[OH FOY]

the rockies had to sit on their hands for over a week waiting for the sox to comeback vs cleveland. nothing stops momentum quicker than 9 days off........

 

Excellent Point.

[moonslav59]

Baseball is one of the rare games where momentum can be stopped with a single pitching change

 

I don't disagree, but sometimes being "on a roll" helps you still find a way to push a run across, even against the best of the best at his best.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't disagree, but sometimes being "on a roll" helps you still find a way to push a run across, even against the best of the best at his best.

 

'Sometimes' is a big word there.

[notin]

I feel these 4 inning starters are killing us too. I would seriously think maybe do a Rays thing, and use the Starters in the middle innings, to get to back end of BP.

When E-Rod, and Sale come back, things will change. Wright will help too, had good outing last night in Pawtucket, in 2 innings.

 

I would agree having both Johnson and Velasquez in the rotation right now is not doing the bullpen any favors. In fact, they are making the bullpen work overtime and letting the bullpen take the blame for it, too...

[OH FOY]

I would agree having both Johnson and Velasquez in the rotation right now is not doing the bullpen any favors. In fact, they are making the bullpen work overtime and letting the bullpen take the blame for it, too...

 

Another thing I feel, if you Start a Reliever at start of the game, you take all the pressure off them too. Try to get 4 to 5 Outs, and Change whether its another Reliever, or one of 4 to 5 inning guys. You give Opposing team different looks, until you get to Back End.

[moonslav59]

'Sometimes' is a big word there.

 

Well, more likely when you have the confidence being on a roll can create or strengthen.

[vegasbob]

When hitters are in a serious slump, even the average pitches can look good. We have had both Betts and Beni off for a while so the Rays weaker pitches looked good. Still Bogaerts and JDM were getting their hits, which indicates to me it was partially the slumping players that made the pitches look good. Last night Betts looked better with 3 walks and a hit. Beni was,1 for 5 so he may still need to find his way out of a slump. One HR since the AS break indicates he is not hitting with as much authority as he had been.

It is very hard to figure how Beni is hitting .282/.763 since the A-S break, and yet only generate 1 HR in 131 AB's. His 18 rbi's are generally consistent with other Sox hitters , except for JDM who has 30. JDM has finally passed the slumping Betts in BA to be the Red Sox triple crown leader right now.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Kimbrel picked the most inopportune time to turn into a lousy reliever. If he keeps it up, he won't get the contract he wants and the Red Sox will watch another team celebrate in October.

 

If Kimbrel keeps walking batters and giving up leads, the Red Sox won't be able to make him a qualifying offer.