A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[sk7326]

But probably much more accurate than what the umps are doing right now...

 

I think the challenges are more implementation than anything. That said, the key for robot umps is getting the edges of the zone right. We don't know the false positive of the Pitch FX stuff we see on the computer/TV. I think the technology probably needs to get to a better reliability level (consistency, accuracy). In particular the technology needs to be sharpened for the high and low parts of the zone, which change with every hitter and every batting stance.

 

I am not pooh poohing the idea of robot umps - as you know, I am very much for it. But it is further away than it seems. MLB should push in that direction though, clearly.

[cp176]

I'm pretty old, too, but I guess, somehow, I learned to embrace change (or at least not fear it).

 

One job a GM has always had is to assign some sort of value to each of his players and to those he's thinking of acquiring.

 

I think that anyone who has lived in this century and the previous one Moon and been successful has not only seen but also embraced many changes. My feelings about baseball probably will not change with respect to anyone suggesting mechanizing it - as in robots of any kind. Baseball for me anyway has always been about people. It has evolved into a huge money maker for owners and players for sure but the more attempts to purify the game I think that you will see more and more people turning their backs on it. I believe that some of the changes that we have seen have been made to protect investments and to appeal to a huge audience that really doesn't have the patience to enjoy real baseball.

[moonslav59]

I think that anyone who has lived in this century and the previous one Moon and been successful has not only seen but also embraced many changes. My feelings about baseball probably will not change with respect to anyone suggesting mechanizing it - as in robots of any kind. Baseball for me anyway has always been about people. It has evolved into a huge money maker for owners and players for sure but the more attempts to purify the game I think that you will see more and more people turning their backs on it. I believe that some of the changes that we have seen have been made to protect investments and to appeal to a huge audience that really doesn't have the patience to enjoy real baseball.

 

I guess I just don't think the umps add all that much to the "people" part of the game. Sure, there are some colorful ones, and watching a manager argue with an ump can be entertaining, but I can do without it.

[moonslav59]

I think the challenges are more implementation than anything. That said, the key for robot umps is getting the edges of the zone right. We don't know the false positive of the Pitch FX stuff we see on the computer/TV. I think the technology probably needs to get to a better reliability level (consistency, accuracy). In particular the technology needs to be sharpened for the high and low parts of the zone, which change with every hitter and every batting stance.

 

I am not pooh poohing the idea of robot umps - as you know, I am very much for it. But it is further away than it seems. MLB should push in that direction though, clearly.

 

I'm not all that concerned about the "edges". Just getting it close to exact and making it consistent will level the playing field for all pitchers, teams, fans and managers.

[mvp 78]

I think the challenges are more implementation than anything. That said, the key for robot umps is getting the edges of the zone right. We don't know the false positive of the Pitch FX stuff we see on the computer/TV. I think the technology probably needs to get to a better reliability level (consistency, accuracy). In particular the technology needs to be sharpened for the high and low parts of the zone, which change with every hitter and every batting stance.

 

I am not pooh poohing the idea of robot umps - as you know, I am very much for it. But it is further away than it seems. MLB should push in that direction though, clearly.

 

We have cars that can drive on their own and only kill a fraction of the population. I think we can get a fully automated strike zone.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm not all that concerned about the "edges". Just getting it close to exact and making it consistent will level the playing field for all pitchers, teams, fans and managers.

 

All due respect--and I mean that--but nothing is leveling the playing field any more than it already is. Good pitchers already prosper and bad ones get beat up. Good hitters already hit and bad ones don't. None of that, I assure you, will change when robot umps take over.

 

I'm serious when I say you are confusing that superimposed strike zone with some kind of transcendent truth. And in the process of attaining it you are advocating sidelining the umpires who will in fact become more and more marginalized because what's really important about baseball is what we see on that screen and the endless replays that allow us to achieve the nirvana on knowing who really was out or safe and which pitch really did nick the strike zone in exactly the right way.

[cp176]

I guess I just don't think the umps add all that much to the "people" part of the game. Sure, there are some colorful ones, and watching a manager argue with an ump can be entertaining, but I can do without it.

 

It isn't the umps per se but taking any part of the human experience from the game. We disagree - not a bad thing. I guess I could say that umps are an integral part of the game. The home plate ump goes away so do the rest of them. Robots can do what they do. I can live with it at MacDonald's I guess but not on the baseball field. Do we need an ump or even replay to tell us whether a ball is fair or foul? Probably not - technology can take care of that. And it really doesn't have anything to do with my feelings about change. Once these changes come, I will stop watching and I'm pretty sure that I won't be alone.

[sk7326]

We have cars that can drive on their own and only kill a fraction of the population. I think we can get a fully automated strike zone.

 

Oh I agree - I was just saying because we see it on TV and Pitch FX exists, doesn't mean that this is suddenly capable of happening next year (even if it were negotiated).

[sk7326]

All due respect--and I mean that--but nothing is leveling the playing field any more than it already is. Good pitchers already prosper and bad ones get beat up. Good hitters already hit and bad ones don't. None of that, I assure you, will change when robot umps take over.

 

I'm serious when I say you are confusing that superimposed strike zone with some kind of transcendent truth. And in the process of attaining it you are advocating sidelining the umpires who will in fact become more and more marginalized because what's really important about baseball is what we see on that screen and the endless replays that allow us to achieve the nirvana on knowing who really was out or safe and which pitch really did nick the strike zone in exactly the right way.

 

Since there is a formal strike zone in the rules, by definition there is a truth. I agree with the spirit of some of this. What this can eliminate is umps showboating and attacking players in the name of protecting a call they most likely missed.

[mvp 78]

Oh I agree - I was just saying because we see it on TV and Pitch FX exists, doesn't mean that this is suddenly capable of happening next year (even if it were negotiated).

 

I don't think it's ready right now either. I'd like to see them test it out in the minors over the next few years.

[cp176]

Since there is a formal strike zone in the rules, by definition there is a truth. I agree with the spirit of some of this. What this can eliminate is umps showboating and attacking players in the name of protecting a call they most likely missed.

 

Do we see a great deal of that right now? The Manager, umpire, arguments as they were seem to be a thing of the past. I'm ok with that which clearly proves that I am not reluctant to change.

[moonslav59]

All due respect--and I mean that--but nothing is leveling the playing field any more than it already is. Good pitchers already prosper and bad ones get beat up. Good hitters already hit and bad ones don't. None of that, I assure you, will change when robot umps take over.

 

I'm serious when I say you are confusing that superimposed strike zone with some kind of transcendent truth. And in the process of attaining it you are advocating sidelining the umpires who will in fact become more and more marginalized because what's really important about baseball is what we see on that screen and the endless replays that allow us to achieve the nirvana on knowing who really was out or safe and which pitch really did nick the strike zone in exactly the right way.

 

It bothers me that teams and pitchers study umpire tendencies and have to change their approach accordingly. It is just not right and never has been. It's been accepted as "part of the game,: but it doesn't have to be.

[moonslav59]

It isn't the umps per se but taking any part of the human experience from the game. We disagree - not a bad thing. I guess I could say that umps are an integral part of the game. The home plate ump goes away so do the rest of them. Robots can do what they do. I can live with it at MacDonald's I guess but not on the baseball field. Do we need an ump or even replay to tell us whether a ball is fair or foul? Probably not - technology can take care of that. And it really doesn't have anything to do with my feelings about change. Once these changes come, I will stop watching and I'm pretty sure that I won't be alone.

 

I wasn't very specific, but I'm just talking balls and strikes. I guess the calls at 1B could go robot, but that's not a major issue with me.

 

I think we'd still have an ump behind home plate to make calls at home and judge foul tips, catcher interference and other things I haven't thought of.

 

Having a computer call balls and strikes would not change the game that much, IMO.

 

This is not a hot topic to me, but that's my opinion.

[Sox75]

Good read. Take note !

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2790259-jayson-werth-says-super-nerds-are-killing-baseball-its-a-joke.amp.html

[mvp 78]

Good read. Take note !

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2790259-jayson-werth-says-super-nerds-are-killing-baseball-its-a-joke.amp.html

 

There is nothing of note there.

[Nick]

Any thoughts on which players will see major league action on September 1? Which players would you like to see?

[OH FOY]

Jason Werth says that stat nerds are killing the game.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24329670/jayson-werth-rails-super-nerds-killing-game

 

https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/albert_einstein_163057

 

https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/albert_einstein_148826

Edited August 11, 2018 by OH FOY!

[notin]

Any thoughts on which players will see major league action on September 1? Which players would you like to see?

 

Some subset of the same guys we have been seeing all year.

 

There are only 15 guys eligible for a call up, but they won't all get one. I think Poyner and Lin are the only definites...

[oldtimer]

Some subset of the same guys we have been seeing all year.

 

There are only 15 guys eligible for a call up, but they won't all get one. I think Poyner and Lin are the only definites...

 

Is Michael Chavis eligible? If so, it would only be for a look as next season he may be considered for a roster spot.

[Kimmi]

We are living in the virtual world of video gamer's, but I prefer baseball played by real live people with all their strengths and flaws. Those that love to talk in stats can have them. I guess when it comes to paying players there has to be some way to justify the pay differences.

 

Regardless of what the stat geeks are doing, baseball is still played by real live people with all their strengths and flaws. The stat geeks have not changed that in the least.

[Kimmi]

Since there is a formal strike zone in the rules, by definition there is a truth. I agree with the spirit of some of this. What this can eliminate is umps showboating and attacking players in the name of protecting a call they most likely missed.

 

Holding the umps accountable for such behavior would also eliminate the showboating and the attacking of players.

[moonslav59]

It looks like my 101-61 projection was a gross under estimate...

 

Here is the first post of Part II

 

 

It looks like the 2018 25 man roster is pretty much set. It's time for Part II.

 

Link to Part I:

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads...at-2018-Part-I

 

Here's a look at what I see might happen...

 

My 2018 Projections (assuming no new injuries, which, admittedly, is not very realistic)

 

Hitting

PAs Player BA HR RBI (OBP/OPS/OPS)

 

720 Betts .300 30 110 (.375/.500/.875)

680 Beni .280 25 100 (.355/.445/.800)

650 Bogey .290 15 90 (.355/.415/.780)

600 JMart .290 45 135 (.380/.570/.950)

600 Devers .290 25 100 (.335/.465/.800)

600 JB Jr, .275 20 75 (.330/.420/.750)

500 Nunez .275 15 65 (.340/.430/.770)

450 HRam .270 15 70 (.335/.415/.750)

450 Vazq .260 8 50 (.320/.380/.700

400 Pedey .280 5 45 (.360/.390/.750)

400 Mi Mo .240 15 50 (.320/.400/.720)

350 Swi .265 10 35 (.330/.390/.720)

100 Leon .220 3 10 (.280/.360/..640)

100 Holt .270 2 10 (.320/.360/.680)

 

Starting Pitchers

GS/IP Pitcher W-L in starts ERA

 

33/210 Sale 24-9 3.00

32/200 Price 20-12 3.30

32/200 Porc 18-14 4.00

26/180 Pom 16-10 3.60

26/150 ERod 16-10 3.60

10/90 Wright 6-4 4.20 (some in relief)

3 by Johnson/Velazquez (1-2 5.00)

 

Team: 101-61 (assuming no new injuries)

 

Defense Ranking (out of 30):

 

6-9 Catcher: Assuming Swihart does not catch too often.

16-19 1B: Assuming HRam plays more than MiMo

14-17 2B: Assuming Nunez plays 2B 25-35%

23-26 SS: Assuming Bogey plays 155+ games here

26-29 3B: Assuming Devers plays 155+ games here

11-14 LF: Beni with JMart getting some time here

4-7 CF: JBJ

1-4 RF: Betts

[Larry Cook]

I would like to see gorst get a September call up.

 

I like the way he throws the ball with movement.

[moonslav59]

I would like to see gorst get a September call up.

 

I like the way he throws the ball with movement.

 

I'm wondering about Bobby Poyner.

 

.596 OPS against in AAA this year and looked pretty good when in the bigs (1.69 ERA). He's got a 9.7 K rate in the minors (1.9 BB/9).

[notin]

Is Michael Chavis eligible? If so, it would only be for a look as next season he may be considered for a roster spot.

 

He is currently not.

 

Only players on the 40 man roster can be called up. Chavis could be added at any time and called up immediately afterwards, but in order to do so, the Sox would need to remove a player from the 40-man roster by either DFA or adding someone to the 60 day disabled list..

[moonslav59]

He is currently not.

 

Only players on the 40 man roster can be called up. Chavis could be added at any time and called up immediately afterwards, but in order to do so, the Sox would need to remove a player from the 40-man roster by either DFA or adding someone to the 60 day disabled list..

 

Easy enough to do, and it may happen for September call-ups, but I think we wait until next year to add him.

 

He's rule 5, so he will be added eventually. I guess it could be sooner rather than this winter.

[Nick]

It looks like my 101-61 projection was a gross under estimate...

 

Here is the first post of Part II

 

 

It looks like the 2018 25 man roster is pretty much set. It's time for Part II.

 

Link to Part I:

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads...at-2018-Part-I

 

Here's a look at what I see might happen...

 

My 2018 Projections (assuming no new injuries, which, admittedly, is not very realistic)

 

Hitting

PAs Player BA HR RBI (OBP/OPS/OPS)

 

720 Betts .300 30 110 (.375/.500/.875)

680 Beni .280 25 100 (.355/.445/.800)

650 Bogey .290 15 90 (.355/.415/.780)

600 JMart .290 45 135 (.380/.570/.950)

600 Devers .290 25 100 (.335/.465/.800)

600 JB Jr, .275 20 75 (.330/.420/.750)

500 Nunez .275 15 65 (.340/.430/.770)

450 HRam .270 15 70 (.335/.415/.750)

450 Vazq .260 8 50 (.320/.380/.700

400 Pedey .280 5 45 (.360/.390/.750)

400 Mi Mo .240 15 50 (.320/.400/.720)

350 Swi .265 10 35 (.330/.390/.720)

100 Leon .220 3 10 (.280/.360/..640)

100 Holt .270 2 10 (.320/.360/.680)

 

Starting Pitchers

GS/IP Pitcher W-L in starts ERA

 

33/210 Sale 24-9 3.00

32/200 Price 20-12 3.30

32/200 Porc 18-14 4.00

26/180 Pom 16-10 3.60

26/150 ERod 16-10 3.60

10/90 Wright 6-4 4.20 (some in relief)

3 by Johnson/Velazquez (1-2 5.00)

 

Team: 101-61 (assuming no new injuries)

 

Defense Ranking (out of 30):

 

6-9 Catcher: Assuming Swihart does not catch too often.

16-19 1B: Assuming HRam plays more than MiMo

14-17 2B: Assuming Nunez plays 2B 25-35%

23-26 SS: Assuming Bogey plays 155+ games here

26-29 3B: Assuming Devers plays 155+ games here

11-14 LF: Beni with JMart getting some time here

4-7 CF: JBJ

1-4 RF: Betts

 

I had us at 93.

[moonslav59]

I had us at 93.

 

Were you one of the posters laughing at me back then?

[moonslav59]

From the Herald...

 

The powerhouse Red Sox roster has come at the expense of a rather depleted farm system, though president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski tells the Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato that it wasn’t his intent to deal away as many prospects in Boston as he did in his previous job as the Tigers’ GM. When the White Sox approached Dombrowski about dealing Chris Sale, however, it was an opportunity Dombrowski couldn’t pass up. “The Chris Sale trade came out of the blue, because we were not anticipating the White Sox (trying) to trade him and we wanted to get involved and we traded some talent,” Dombrowski said. While Boston has dealt a lot of blue chip talent, however, it was also firm in holding onto other youngsters that the Red Sox feel are cornerstone pieces, such as Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers. “I don’t think it was ever tempting to trade Devers,” Dombrowski said. “People continue to ask about him a lot. But we like him a lot, same thing with Benintendi.”

[Nick]

Were you one of the posters laughing at me back then?

 

If not that post, some other posts.