A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[mvp 78]

From MLB Rumors:

 

 

 

I think the next move is obvious: you put Pomeranz on the DL, he goes on a minor league rehab where the Red Sox turn him into a one inning reliever. He sucks as a starter and so the obvious thing to do is to see if the Red Sox can get some value out of him as a one inning reliever.

 

They have a substantial lead in the division. They are going to stick it out with Pom.

[SoxnCycles]

And therein lies the rub.

 

The UZR geeks are often former MLB players or scouts. They are skilled at what they do. They know the game of baseball. If they don't get it right, they get fired. Unlike umpires, who have a strong union.

 

You mean they're not unemployed dishwashers??

[moonslav59]

You mean they're not unemployed dishwashers??

 

No, they were employed dishwashers when hired.

[SoxnCycles]

No, they were employed dishwashers when hired.

 

Ha!

[Bellhorn04]

No, they were employed dishwashers when hired.

 

Moonlighting.

[Slasher9]

The best and shortest way to describe JD is that he's a sane version of Manny.

 

LOL. not bad.

i will say this...i believe that 2004 team needed a guy like Manny to keep them loose. Plus he gave so much happiness to Remy. he would literally have to push the cough button on his microphone sometimes he would be laughing so hard at Manny's antics.

[Slasher9]

Not in favor of robot umps.

 

And if you really think about the job of a home plate umpire - having to make a split second call to determine whether a pitch traveling in excess of 90mph managed to even touch the borders of an imaginary box - getting it wrong only 30% of the time is still impressive.

 

I mean, have you ever even seen a 95mph fastball up close coming at you? I’m impressed they see it well enough to get it right 70% of the time on those borderline pitches...

 

thats kind of the point. why continue to allow a human to try and track a 95MPH+ pitch with movement?

the technology is available now to have just about 100% accuracy. it wasn't available for the first 150 years of baseball. but it is now.

i'm impressed a horse and wagon can travel across the USA. i'm still taking a plane.....

[Slasher9]

Further , who actually gives a damn what happens to Drew P. It's not like he is part of the answer as to how the Red Sox win the WS this year or AL East next year. His day is done , so let him go.

 

i agree with you 100%. Drew has shown no improvement at all this season.

but, trading for him with our top tier prospect was a DD move so he will not be so quick to admit to the mistake. we will see Pom continue to take starts.....

[Bellhorn04]

thats kind of the point. why continue to allow a human to try and track a 95MPH+ pitch with movement?

the technology is available now to have just about 100% accuracy. it wasn't available for the first 150 years of baseball. but it is now.

i'm impressed a horse and wagon can travel across the USA. i'm still taking a plane.....

 

Well played.

[mvp 78]

i agree with you 100%. Drew has shown no improvement at all this season.

but, trading for him with our top tier prospect was a DD move so he will not be so quick to admit to the mistake. we will see Pom continue to take starts.....

 

If DD had held onto him, he'd have a damaged goods prospect that hasn't thrown a pitch in forever.

[notin]

No, it's terrible.

 

So you are not impressed that a human can determine whether or not a 95mph projectile on the border of an imaginary box is in or out of the box correctly 70% of the time? That’s insanely difficult.

 

I know umps can anger fans more often than please them, but it is a s***** and extremely difficult job...

[mvp 78]

So you are not impressed that a human can determine whether or not a 95mph projectile on the border of an imaginary box is in or out of the box correctly 70% of the time? That’s insanely difficult.

 

I know umps can anger fans more often than please them, but it is a s***** and extremely difficult job...

 

1. Not really impressed.

 

2. If it's s***** and difficult, let a robot do it. That's what we do in every other industry.

[Slasher9]

If DD had held onto him, he'd have a damaged goods prospect that hasn't thrown a pitch in forever.

 

or we could have used him to get Sale and still had moncada....

[mvp 78]

or we could have used him to get Sale and still had moncada....

 

Doubtful. I'm sure the ChiSox would have still wanted Moncada. The trade "could" have been Moncada and Espinoza. That's all just conjecture though. We can't just slot players into a trade and say the other team would have rather had guy A if guy B wasn't available.

[sk7326]

thats kind of the point. why continue to allow a human to try and track a 95MPH+ pitch with movement?

the technology is available now to have just about 100% accuracy. it wasn't available for the first 150 years of baseball. but it is now.

i'm impressed a horse and wagon can travel across the USA. i'm still taking a plane.....

 

The technology has a ways to go - but MLB clearly should invest in it. The home plate ump still has a valuable function - but the part of the job which he is A) worst at, most likely to get into a fight over and C) most likely to put on an unconscionable umpshow over ... goes away

[a700hitter]

And if not, there is always a chance you can get a gig making coffee in Toronto.

[h=2]Ben Cherington Open To Pursuing GM Opportunities[/h]By Jeff Todd | August 9, 2018 at 8:26am CDT

Blue Jays VP of player development Ben Cherington, formerly the GM of the Red Sox, discussed his past and future in an interesting recent chat with Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. While he says he loves working in Toronto, Cherington also indicated an openness to pursuing other opportunities.

By "other opportunities, I think that he means that he will be branching out to do breakfast Danish and Croissants.

[Spudboy]

Maybe he has learned how to make crepes.

[mvp 78]

You f***ers are just trying to make me hungry now...

[oldtimer]

The technology has a ways to go - but MLB clearly should invest in it. The home plate ump still has a valuable function - but the part of the job which he is A) worst at, most likely to get into a fight over and C) most likely to put on an unconscionable umpshow over ... goes away

 

Electronics can be used as a tool to help the umpire get the call right. When a tool comes along to enhance accuracy why not use it? Right now the umpire's calls are bing scored against the electronics, so why not just go with them?

[sk7326]

Electronics can be used as a tool to help the umpire get the call right. When a tool comes along to enhance accuracy why not use it? Right now the umpire's calls are bing scored against the electronics, so why not just go with them?

 

The electronics themselves are probably (from what I read) not accurate enough either ... and there is more to figure out in terms of implementation. But again, that doesn't mean they can't get there - just have to figure out whether it is something MLB wants to seriously push.

[mvp 78]

The electronics themselves are probably (from what I read) not accurate enough either ... and there is more to figure out in terms of implementation. But again, that doesn't mean they can't get there - just have to figure out whether it is something MLB wants to seriously push.

 

But probably much more accurate than what the umps are doing right now...

[Kimmi]

Do you thirst for vengeance then? Is your desire for punishment or for the umps getting the call right more often?

 

My point has nothing to do with vengeance or punishment.

 

My question was why many people are fine with accepting Ks as a stat but not UZR. The argument I have always heard against UZR is that it's too subjective.

 

Ks are just as subjective, far more so IMO. Ks have just as high a margin of error, if not more so. The scouts that are watching the defensive plays for UZR are just as highly trained as umpires. And the point of the post that you were responding to: The quality control for UZR scouts is better than the quality control for umpires.

 

Bottom line: Saying that UZR is a weak stat because it's somewhat subjective really doesn't hold much merit.

[Kimmi]

The best and shortest way to describe JD is that he's a sane version of Manny.

 

Nice!

 

FTR, I absolutely love Manny, warts and all.

 

One of my favorite all time players to watch.

[Kimmi]

Not in favor of robot umps.

 

And if you really think about the job of a home plate umpire - having to make a split second call to determine whether a pitch traveling in excess of 90mph managed to even touch the borders of an imaginary box - getting it wrong only 30% of the time is still impressive.

 

I mean, have you ever even seen a 95mph fastball up close coming at you? I’m impressed they see it well enough to get it right 70% of the time on those borderline pitches...

 

I'm not sure that I'm impressed with the 70% accuracy, but I have to admit that I've never umped a major league game.

 

Perhaps they should do away with the K zone during telecasts. I know while watching games in which K zone is not shown with every pitch, there are some balls that I thought were strikes or vice versa, only to find out that I was wrong when the pitch was replayed with K zone.

[Kimmi]

The worst pitch call I can remember occurred a few years ago and it involved David Ortiz and the Yankems, of course. In a close game with the Yankems leading, Ortiz was up as the tying run, I believe. With a 3-2 count the pitcher threw a pitch that was low and outside, not even close to a strike, and the F'ing ump called it a strike to end the game. I always wondered how Ortiz didn't end up strangling the ump.

 

I remember that all too well.

 

Another one I remember is a young David Price, then with the Devil Rays, getting a called strike against JD Drew in a crucial playoff situation.

[Kimmi]

And while pitches they’re eyeing rarely hit them in the mask, 95mph foul tips do quite often.

 

And catchers have tons more protection. When my daughter plays catcher, I tell her “Go put on the armor.” Chest protectors, shin guards face mask, helmet.

 

All umps get is a face mask and the ability to stand behind the guy wearing the actual protective gear...

 

One thing I can say for sure is that I could never be a catcher.

 

Never mind all the foul balls off the face mask, etc. Just the squatting for 9 innings would do me in. LOL

[Kimmi]

You mean they're not unemployed dishwashers??

 

People really need to give stat geeks more credit, and I mean that sincerely. I'm not talking about wannabe stat geeks like myself. I'm talking about the ones who work for MLB teams, companies like BIS, and sites like Fangraphs and BP.

 

Not only do they know about numbers, but they know far more about the game of baseball than they're given credit for, including the human element side of things.

 

And, they are darn good at what they do.

[greenwell]

My point has nothing to do with vengeance or punishment.

 

My question was why many people are fine with accepting Ks as a stat but not UZR. The argument I have always heard against UZR is that it's too subjective.

 

Ks are just as subjective, far more so IMO. Ks have just as high a margin of error, if not more so. The scouts that are watching the defensive plays for UZR are just as highly trained as umpires. And the point of the post that you were responding to: The quality control for UZR scouts is better than the quality control for umpires.

 

Bottom line: Saying that UZR is a weak stat because it's somewhat subjective really doesn't hold much merit.

 

I agree to an extent that a lot of stats have some subjectivity. The problem with a lot of defensive stats is more a combination of this and small sample size. Differences in fielding ability between players only matters for a few plays in a given week so there's just not enough data for the subjectivity aspect to balance out.

[Bellhorn04]

People really need to give stat geeks more credit, and I mean that sincerely. I'm not talking about wannabe stat geeks like myself. I'm talking about the ones who work for MLB teams, companies like BIS, and sites like Fangraphs and BP.

 

Not only do they know about numbers, but they know far more about the game of baseball than they're given credit for, including the human element side of things.

 

And, they are darn good at what they do.

 

Things could be worse, Kimmi, at least they don't have horrible jokes about them like the ones about lawyers.

 

Q: What's the difference between a dead skunk in the road and a dead lawyer in the road?

A: There are skid marks in front of the skunk.

[Kimmi]

I agree to an extent that a lot of stats have some subjectivity. The problem with a lot of defensive stats is more a combination of this and small sample size. Differences in fielding ability between players only matters for a few plays in a given week so there's just not enough data for the subjectivity aspect to balance out.

 

Well there is an argument against UZR that I can get on board with.

 

You are absolutely correct that sample size is one of the difficulties with UZR and other defensive metrics.

 

But, with a large enough sample size (roughly 3 years), UZR is a good stat.