A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Slasher9]

How accurate are the strike zone boxes? A lot more accurate than the umpires, the HBO producers found.

 

They asked Yale professor Dr. Toby Moskowitz to study the Pitch f/x data from MLB games in recent seasons. Moskowitz analyzed every pitch called by major league umpires – nearly a million in all – over the last 3 ½ years.

 

MLB claims its umpires call 97 percent of balls and strikes correctly. But according to Moscowitz and HBO, the study showed that only about 88 percent of the calls were accurate.

 

Roughly one of every eight pitches, in other words, were called incorrectly. As Frankel pointed out, that adds up to more than 30,000 bogus balls or strikes each season.

That figure includes the obvious calls where the pitches are right down the middle or way outside. When Moscowitz narrowed his analysis to pitches that were within two inches, either way, of the corners of the plate, the umpires got the call wrong 31.7 percent of the time – nearly one of every three pitches!

 

https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/gil-lebreton/article105378146.html

[Kimmi]

Umps are monitored by the league, probably like UZR/150 observers who seem to be mistakenly rating some plays.

 

I get that. But there is no one who will go back and change a missed strike call. There is also not a 2nd umpire or observer watching every pitch and calling balls or strikes to see if the two opinions agree.

 

Additionally, if an umpire is bad, he gets to keep umpiring.

 

Not the case with UZR and there scouts.

[Kimmi]

Just because ump reviews aren't public, don't make the mistake of believing there's no quality control. The data is far too available for me to think MLB isn't quietly talking to umps who have a bad night.

 

Also lot of umpires self-police, and many of them are as passionate about the game, if not more so, than the people on this forum. There are a few who abuse their authority, but they're so visible exactly because they're exceptions.

 

And if an umpire makes a bad call, or several bad calls, what happens to the affected stats? Nothing.

 

What happens to the umpire? Nothing.

[Kimmi]

At least we know who the umpires are. Who are these UZR geeks ? Somebody's out of work , down on their luck brother in law ?

 

And therein lies the rub.

 

The UZR geeks are often former MLB players or scouts. They are skilled at what they do. They know the game of baseball. If they don't get it right, they get fired. Unlike umpires, who have a strong union.

[mvp 78]

How accurate are the strike zone boxes? A lot more accurate than the umpires, the HBO producers found.

 

They asked Yale professor Dr. Toby Moskowitz to study the Pitch f/x data from MLB games in recent seasons. Moskowitz analyzed every pitch called by major league umpires – nearly a million in all – over the last 3 ½ years.

 

MLB claims its umpires call 97 percent of balls and strikes correctly. But according to Moscowitz and HBO, the study showed that only about 88 percent of the calls were accurate.

 

Roughly one of every eight pitches, in other words, were called incorrectly. As Frankel pointed out, that adds up to more than 30,000 bogus balls or strikes each season.

That figure includes the obvious calls where the pitches are right down the middle or way outside. When Moscowitz narrowed his analysis to pitches that were within two inches, either way, of the corners of the plate, the umpires got the call wrong 31.7 percent of the time – nearly one of every three pitches!

 

https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/gil-lebreton/article105378146.html

 

Sounds about right to me.

[Kimmi]

" Kill the ump " and " Get new glasses , Blue " are all part of the fun of the game. If you want robot umps , why not robot managers , coaches and even players. Let's try to eliminate all mistakes , errors and controversy from the game. That will be awesome.

 

I do not want robot umps. I don't even want replay.

[mvp 78]

I do not want robot umps. I don't even want replay.

 

How about a home plate ump with google glass or something that will tell him if a ball was in the zone?

[Kimmi]

You are touching on something that IMO accounts for a lot of the suspicion many fans have with a stat like UZR.

 

It's a phantom. We can't see it.

 

Yup.

 

But that doesn't make it a bad stat.

[Kimmi]

How accurate are the strike zone boxes? A lot more accurate than the umpires, the HBO producers found.

 

They asked Yale professor Dr. Toby Moskowitz to study the Pitch f/x data from MLB games in recent seasons. Moskowitz analyzed every pitch called by major league umpires – nearly a million in all – over the last 3 ½ years.

 

MLB claims its umpires call 97 percent of balls and strikes correctly. But according to Moscowitz and HBO, the study showed that only about 88 percent of the calls were accurate.

 

Roughly one of every eight pitches, in other words, were called incorrectly. As Frankel pointed out, that adds up to more than 30,000 bogus balls or strikes each season.

That figure includes the obvious calls where the pitches are right down the middle or way outside. When Moscowitz narrowed his analysis to pitches that were within two inches, either way, of the corners of the plate, the umpires got the call wrong 31.7 percent of the time – nearly one of every three pitches!

 

https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/gil-lebreton/article105378146.html

 

We have had a similar discussion before when we were debating robot umps or not.

 

The numbers above sound about right.

 

The so called quality control that MLB has on its umpires does little good.

 

The quality control that BIS and other privately owned data collecting agencies have would not allow a scout to continue working if he/she did that poor of a job. I will say that the video scouts have the luxury of watching any play over and over and over again if need be to get it right.

 

Do I trust their collective subjective opinions more than I trust a single umpire's? You bet I do.

[Kimmi]

How about a home plate ump with google glass or something that will tell him if a ball was in the zone?

 

That would certainly be preferable to robot umps, but for me, no.

 

Human umpiring all the way.

 

That said, I think they could and should hold the umpires more accountable.

[Maxbialystock]

How accurate are the strike zone boxes? A lot more accurate than the umpires, the HBO producers found.

 

They asked Yale professor Dr. Toby Moskowitz to study the Pitch f/x data from MLB games in recent seasons. Moskowitz analyzed every pitch called by major league umpires – nearly a million in all – over the last 3 ½ years.

 

MLB claims its umpires call 97 percent of balls and strikes correctly. But according to Moscowitz and HBO, the study showed that only about 88 percent of the calls were accurate.

 

Roughly one of every eight pitches, in other words, were called incorrectly. As Frankel pointed out, that adds up to more than 30,000 bogus balls or strikes each season.

That figure includes the obvious calls where the pitches are right down the middle or way outside. When Moscowitz narrowed his analysis to pitches that were within two inches, either way, of the corners of the plate, the umpires got the call wrong 31.7 percent of the time – nearly one of every three pitches!

 

https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/gil-lebreton/article105378146.html

 

Whereas I think anything within 2 inches of the plate can be called either way by the ump without damaging the nature of the game. Why? Because very few hitters can reasonably see pitches that accurately and, more importantly, make a decision on whether to swing well before the ball gets to the plate. Also, very few pitchers can regularly work the corners and also throw the ball hard as it needs to be thrown and make the ball move up, down, right, and left as it needs to do.

 

In other words, why do we want technology to deliver what is essentially inhuman accuracy?

[Slasher9]

 

In other words, why do we want technology to deliver what is essentially inhuman accuracy?

 

because: bias.

[dgalehouse]

Now they have Yale professors analyzing every pitch called by umps over the past 3 1/2 years. We have officially gone completely crazy.

[Dojji]

And if an umpire makes a bad call, or several bad calls, what happens to the affected stats? Nothing.

 

What happens to the umpire? Nothing.

 

Do you thirst for vengeance then? Is your desire for punishment or for the umps getting the call right more often?

[a700hitter]

Now they have Yale professors analyzing every pitch called by umps over the past 3 1/2 years. We have officially gone completely crazy.

It’s good work if you can get it.

[Spudboy]

It’s good work if you can get it.

 

And if not, there is always a chance you can get a gig making coffee in Toronto.

[a700hitter]

And if not, there is always a chance you can get a gig making coffee in Toronto.

Where do I send my application?

[cp176]

How accurate are the strike zone boxes? A lot more accurate than the umpires, the HBO producers found.

 

They asked Yale professor Dr. Toby Moskowitz to study the Pitch f/x data from MLB games in recent seasons. Moskowitz analyzed every pitch called by major league umpires – nearly a million in all – over the last 3 ½ years.

 

MLB claims its umpires call 97 percent of balls and strikes correctly. But according to Moscowitz and HBO, the study showed that only about 88 percent of the calls were accurate.

 

Roughly one of every eight pitches, in other words, were called incorrectly. As Frankel pointed out, that adds up to more than 30,000 bogus balls or strikes each season.

That figure includes the obvious calls where the pitches are right down the middle or way outside. When Moscowitz narrowed his analysis to pitches that were within two inches, either way, of the corners of the plate, the umpires got the call wrong 31.7 percent of the time – nearly one of every three pitches!

 

https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/gil-lebreton/article105378146.html

 

Does the fact that this information came from a Yale professor supposed to make some sort of impression Slasher? It is probably information that most of us simply could have guessed at. I'll bet that who ever compiled this info was paid for it as well. My question would be why? Why is it important to know something that we already know. Human error! That is how it works. Constantly changing this game in an attempt to make it perfect will eliminate much of this human factor. As a result, the audience who gives a s*** about the game will continue to get smaller than it is right now.

[Dojji]

Exactly. I won't defend bad umpiring for nostalgia's sake, but if people want an automated game, they'll play the latest MLB2K game from EA.

[mvp 78]

Exactly. I won't defend bad umpiring for nostalgia's sake, but if people want an automated game, they'll play the latest MLB2K game from EA.

 

No one is asking for an automated game. We want a fairly officiated game.

Edited August 9, 2018 by mvp 78

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

The best and shortest way to describe JD is that he's a sane version of Manny.

[notin]

Not in favor of robot umps.

 

And if you really think about the job of a home plate umpire - having to make a split second call to determine whether a pitch traveling in excess of 90mph managed to even touch the borders of an imaginary box - getting it wrong only 30% of the time is still impressive.

 

I mean, have you ever even seen a 95mph fastball up close coming at you? I’m impressed they see it well enough to get it right 70% of the time on those borderline pitches...

[a700hitter]

Not in favor of robot umps.

 

And if you really think about the job of a home plate umpire - having to make a split second call to determine whether a pitch traveling in excess of 90mph managed to even touch the borders of an imaginary box - getting it wrong only 30% of the time is still impressive.

 

I mean, have you ever even seen a 95mph fastball up close coming at you? I’m impressed they see it well enough to get it right 70% of the time on those borderline pitches...

I would not do that job without the big balloon chest protector. if the ball is coming at the batters head or body, he can try to evade getting hit. The catcher is wearing a glove to protect himself. The umpire has to keep his head on that ball and can't flinch. And when that 90+ mph rock hits you in the mask, it is not a good feeling. That is not a job that I want.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

The worst pitch call I can remember occurred a few years ago and it involved David Ortiz and the Yankems, of course. In a close game with the Yankems leading, Ortiz was up as the tying run, I believe. With a 3-2 count the pitcher threw a pitch that was low and outside, not even close to a strike, and the F'ing ump called it a strike to end the game. I always wondered how Ortiz didn't end up strangling the ump.

[notin]

I would not do that job without the big balloon chest protector. if the ball is coming at the batters head or body, he can try to evade getting hit. The catcher is wearing a glove to protect himself. The umpire has to keep his head on that ball and can't flinch. And when that 90+ mph rock hits you in the mask, it is not a good feeling. That is not a job that I want.

 

And while pitches they’re eyeing rarely hit them in the mask, 95mph foul tips do quite often.

 

And catchers have tons more protection. When my daughter plays catcher, I tell her “Go put on the armor.” Chest protectors, shin guards face mask, helmet.

 

All umps get is a face mask and the ability to stand behind the guy wearing the actual protective gear...

[Fan_since_Boggs]

From MLB Rumors:

 

Left-hander Drew Pomeranz has been one of the few weak links on this year’s juggernaut Red Sox team, and he may not be long for their roster as a result, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com suggests. Boston has an upcoming 25-man roster crunch, Cotillo points out, and it’s likely Pomeranz, Hector Velazquez or Ryan Brasier won’t survive it. Working in Pomeranz’s favor is that he, unlike fellow hurlers Velazquez and Brasier, is out of minor league options. That means Boston could simply send either Velazquez or Brasier down and keep all three players in the organization. On the other hand, parting with Pomeranz would mean saying goodbye to a player whom the Red Sox paid a high price to acquire from the Padres prior to the 2016 non-waiver trade deadline. Pomeranz was a high-end starter at that point, but injuries and inconsistency have weighed him down in Boston. Thus far in 2018, the 29-year-old pending free agent has posted a 6.31 ERA/5.95 FIP with 7.71 K/9 and 5.61 BB/9 in 51 1/3 innings.

 

I think the next move is obvious: you put Pomeranz on the DL, he goes on a minor league rehab where the Red Sox turn him into a one inning reliever. He sucks as a starter and so the obvious thing to do is to see if the Red Sox can get some value out of him as a one inning reliever.

[vegasbob]

Does the fact that this information came from a Yale professor supposed to make some sort of impression Slasher? It is probably information that most of us simply could have guessed at. I'll bet that who ever compiled this info was paid for it as well. My question would be why? Why is it important to know something that we already know. Human error! That is how it works. Constantly changing this game in an attempt to make it perfect will eliminate much of this human factor. As a result, the audience who gives a s*** about the game will continue to get smaller than it is right now.

 

That's a pretty weird opinion of the the lack of accuracy and consistency of these hack umpires. Who the hell cares if they were paid for studying the 1/3 ineptness of the umpires. Human error in today's technological age is unallowable.. Just like free speech that counters your biased opinion.

[vegasbob]

From MLB Rumors:

 

 

 

I think the next move is obvious: you put Pomeranz on the DL, he goes on a minor league rehab where the Red Sox turn him into a one inning reliever. He sucks as a starter and so the obvious thing to do is to see if the Red Sox can get some value out of him as a one inning reliever.

 

Further , who actually gives a damn what happens to Drew P. It's not like he is part of the answer as to how the Red Sox win the WS this year or AL East next year. His day is done , so let him go.

[mvp 78]

Not in favor of robot umps.

 

And if you really think about the job of a home plate umpire - having to make a split second call to determine whether a pitch traveling in excess of 90mph managed to even touch the borders of an imaginary box - getting it wrong only 30% of the time is still impressive.

 

I mean, have you ever even seen a 95mph fastball up close coming at you? I’m impressed they see it well enough to get it right 70% of the time on those borderline pitches...

 

No, it's terrible.

[mvp 78]

The worst pitch call I can remember occurred a few years ago and it involved David Ortiz and the Yankems, of course. In a close game with the Yankems leading, Ortiz was up as the tying run, I believe. With a 3-2 count the pitcher threw a pitch that was low and outside, not even close to a strike, and the F'ing ump called it a strike to end the game. I always wondered how Ortiz didn't end up strangling the ump.

 

But don't you feel sorry for that ump? It must have been scary to sit there with a 90 mph ball being thrown at him!