A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Slasher9]

Last year's GG 3b already has 3 errors this year.

 

ours has 4. not sure why you are labeling Rafi as GG defender. there is nothing about him his play on defense that trends towards GG.

perhaps it's just your sarcasm? hanley is fine at 1b there is no reason to rush Rafi over there. and he is fine playing 3b. but there is also no reason to label him a GG 3bman.

[Dojji]

Anyone else impressed by Tzu-Wei Lin so far? He's been a breath of fresh air in the utility role. IIRC he made a good showing for himself last year as well.

[mvp 78]

ours has 4. not sure why you are labeling Rafi as GG defender. there is nothing about him his play on defense that trends towards GG.

perhaps it's just your sarcasm? hanley is fine at 1b there is no reason to rush Rafi over there. and he is fine playing 3b. but there is also no reason to label him a GG 3bman.

 

https://nesn.com/2018/04/why-alex-cora-believes-rafael-devers-is-becoming-elite-on-defense/

[Spudboy]

Last year's GG 3b already has 3 errors this year.

 

Gomes said that Devers now has 4.

[Spudboy]

Anyone else impressed by Tzu-Wei Lin so far? He's been a breath of fresh air in the utility role. IIRC he made a good showing for himself last year as well.

 

Until his bat disappeared he looked good last year.

[moonslav59]

Anyone else impressed by Tzu-Wei Lin so far? He's been a breath of fresh air in the utility role. IIRC he made a good showing for himself last year as well.

 

I like Lin, but I doubt he ends up being above .675 in career OPS.

[Slasher9]

https://nesn.com/2018/04/why-alex-cora-believes-rafael-devers-is-becoming-elite-on-defense/

 

come on man. wtf do you expect Cora to say when asked that question?

"Rafi is average at best on D"???

[mvp 78]

Gomes said that Devers now has 4.

 

Yes, I can read even on 4/20.

[mvp 78]

come on man. wtf do you expect Cora to say when asked that question?

"Rafi is average at best on D"???

 

So far, he's held other players' feet to the fire when they've not worked out (Kelly after game 1). Cora isn't a CYA kinda guy like Farrell.

[moonslav59]

come on man. wtf do you expect Cora to say when asked that question?

"Rafi is average at best on D"???

 

Even that would be a gross exaggeration.

[Slasher9]

Even that would be a gross exaggeration.

 

i know. i was trying to be nice....

[moonslav59]

i know. i was trying to be nice....

 

So was I!

 

[cp176]

We've talked about Devers growing into this position for some time now. He has the opportunity with this team and the way they are playing to do just that. He is young, he is a worker, he has all of the tools to play that position well going forward. I hope he gets a chance to anchor third base for us for a long long time. How many of his 4 errors have been throwing errors? He has excellent hands and pretty good footwork. I think that he is going to be very good over there.

[moonslav59]

We've talked about Devers growing into this position for some time now. He has the opportunity with this team and the way they are playing to do just that. He is young, he is a worker, he has all of the tools to play that position well going forward. I hope he gets a chance to anchor third base for us for a long long time. How many of his 4 errors have been throwing errors? He has excellent hands and pretty good footwork. I think that he is going to be very good over there.

 

It does seem like accurate throwing might be the easiest skill to improve.

 

You don't learn instincts. You don't learn quick reflexes. You don't learn anticipation.

 

I've never doubted he may become an average or better defender. My concern was for him to go through his learning curve during a heated championship run. It was expected that we'd have a run for our money winning the division, and any game or two lost due to poor 3B defense might be one of the difference makers.

 

I'm fine with giving him a shot. With Moreland signed for 2 years and Travis making statements about his skill level, it looks like he'll get a real long look at 3B.

[S5Dewey]

It's not worthless, for sure, but yes, it has flaws.

 

We all know a good or great play when we see it, and certainly the "eye test" is valid, but we don't get to "eye test" everyone else in MLB, so any comparative analysis will be flawed.

 

I think we can all agree that WAR can be a very valuable tool in determining the worth of each player.

 

All except when it isn't.

 

Even our beloved sabermatician Moon (no sarcasm intended) has said that Beni may be underrated in WAR because he plays LF in Fenway, which is extremely unlike any other ball park. Also, JBJ may also be underrated in WAR because his ability to go to 'the spot' quickly and make the catch may make it look like he has less range than he actually does.

[Maxbialystock]

It does seem like accurate throwing might be the easiest skill to improve.

 

You don't learn instincts. You don't learn quick reflexes. You don't learn anticipation.

 

I've never doubted he may become an average or better defender. My concern was for him to go through his learning curve during a heated championship run. It was expected that we'd have a run for our money winning the division, and any game or two lost due to poor 3B defense might be one of the difference makers.

 

I'm fine with giving him a shot. With Moreland signed for 2 years and Travis making statements about his skill level, it looks like he'll get a real long look at 3B.

 

Thus far the Sox have given up 50 runs, of which 49 are earned. They Jays have also given up 1 unearned run. The averaged unearned runs per team in MLB is 7.

 

This doesn't mean the Sox have a great or even a good defense, but does suggest that Devers isn't hurting us.

[moonslav59]

I think we can all agree that WAR can be a very valuable tool in determining the worth of each player.

 

All except when it isn't.

 

Even our beloved sabermatician Moon (no sarcasm intended) has said that Beni may be underrated in WAR because he plays LF in Fenway, which is extremely unlike any other ball park. Also, JBJ may also be underrated in WAR because his ability to go to 'the spot' quickly and make the catch may make it look like he has less range than he actually does.

 

There are certainly flaws in UZR/150 and WAR, but to me the flaw with personal comparative player skill analysis and the "eye test" is greater (maybe with some players or positions more than others).

 

It's weird that Swihart has 6 innings on defense and has a number. JBJ has 15 innings in RF and it is blank.

 

Also, I'd have categorized the catch he made in RF the other day as "impossible" not "remote", so I'm sure subjectivity plays a role in their categorizing play difficulty through "eye test" observations. After all, it seems like UZR/150 is just a massive amount of "eye test" observational scores entered into a computer program.

 

I can't and don't watch hardly any other baseball but Sox games. There's no way I could ever say for sure, "JBJ is the best defensive CF'er in MLB, today!"

 

UZR/150 and DRS tries to quantify eye test observations from trained observers who do watch every play of every game. I think the idea is a good one, but it does have flaws. Maybe someday, there will be a way to objectively rate and rank defense. It's not quite there, yet.

[Emp9]

Thus far the Sox have given up 50 runs, of which 49 are earned. They Jays have also given up 1 unearned run. The averaged unearned runs per team in MLB is 7.

 

This doesn't mean the Sox have a great or even a good defense, but does suggest that Devers isn't hurting us.

 

Devers’ error may not hurt us, I just don’t think he’ll win the Gold Glove is all.

[cp176]

Devers’ error may not hurt us, I just don’t think he’ll win the Gold Glove is all.

 

I don't think he will either for a while but someday maybe.

[moonslav59]

Errors alone are a poor way to evaluate defensive skill level.

 

[mvp 78]

When Devers wins a GG, I don't want all of you saying "we thought he could win one, just not that soon".

[Emp9]

Errors alone are a poor way to evaluate defensive skill level.

 

 

True and there’s no way of telling how managers and coaches throughout the league weigh an error or how much they factor them in when voting for GG. Depending on how much Old School or New School they are and what not. SABR only accounts for 25% of the vote. How much Old School is in the other 75% I wonder?

[sk7326]

come on man. wtf do you expect Cora to say when asked that question?

"Rafi is average at best on D"???

 

Cora has seemed a straight enough shooter. But there is merit in protecting the kiddos some. It is one of the things Farrell was not so good at.

[Emp9]

When Devers wins a GG, I don't want all of you saying "we thought he could win one, just not that soon".

 

It’ll be magic, I just know it.

[moonslav59]

When Devers wins a GG, I don't want all of you saying "we thought he could win one, just not that soon".

 

I'll go on the books as saying he'll never even be a top 5 GG vote- getter or finsih top 5 in the Fielding Bible rankings.

[moonslav59]

True and there’s no way of telling how managers and coaches throughout the league weigh an error or how much they factor them in when voting for GG. Depending on how much Old School or New School they are and what not. SABR only accounts for 25% of the vote. How much Old School is in the other 75% I wonder?

 

Even if some old-schoolers don't value sabermetrics, they know defense is more about range and getting to balls than the difference between 25 and 15 errors.

[Kimmi]

True and there’s no way of telling how managers and coaches throughout the league weigh an error or how much they factor them in when voting for GG. Depending on how much Old School or New School they are and what not. SABR only accounts for 25% of the vote. How much Old School is in the other 75% I wonder?

 

The Gold Glove awards have gotten better in recent years. The SABR component has helped quite a bit. They still have their selections that make one shake his/her head, but they are not the absolute joke that they once were.

[Bellhorn04]

Believe it or not, Buck Showalter is not all bad. Showalter has gone on record that Mookie is 'the best right fielder I've ever seen in person'.

[Bellhorn04]

Looks like a good thing we didn't trade for Sonny Gray. He's looked awful so far this year.

[notin]

Believe it or not, Buck Showalter is not all bad. Showalter has gone on record that Mookie is 'the best right fielder I've ever seen in person'.

 

 

But he was choking a puppy when he said it...