A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Nick]

Weakening up two outfield spots in order to slightly increase the offense of a team that's winning is almost the definition of a "fool's errand".

 

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

 

Yep

 

It's time to just sit back and enjoy our team play. Each player has pluses and minuses. It's not as though we didn't know that JBJ was a 'streaky' hitter last winter. DD chose to keep him for his defensive prowess.

[moonslav59]

This has been a fun opening 2 weeks despite al the guys on the DL.

[oldtimer]

This has been a fun opening 2 weeks despite al the guys on the DL.

 

We don't seem to see the entire best lineup in at one time, due to injuries and Cora's approach to resting players. If and when we do get Hanley, Nunez and Bogaerts in the lineup with Betts, Beni, JD, Devers, Vaz and JBJ, we have one hell of a lineup. I'm enjoying it and won't criticize what Cora is doing, since he is getting outstanding results.

[oldtimer]

It looks like Bogaerts will return to the lineup before Pedey is available. At that time, who gets sent down? Looks like the choice is between Holt and Lin. A comparison of those two utility guys is hard to make because of so few opportunities to see them, but at this time Lin would have to have an advantage. He seems have more range defensively and he has hit a little, whereas Holt is not hitting (.056 BA). When Pedey gets back, the choice gets more difficult and probably comes down to Holt/Lin and Swihart. That would mean putting all the infield Utility assignments into Nunez hands.

[moonslav59]

We don't seem to see the entire best lineup in at one time, due to injuries and Cora's approach to resting players. If and when we do get Hanley, Nunez and Bogaerts in the lineup with Betts, Beni, JD, Devers, Vaz and JBJ, we have one hell of a lineup. I'm enjoying it and won't criticize what Cora is doing, since he is getting outstanding results.

 

I'll continue criticizing a few things here and there, but I am far and far away from disliking Cora. He's done a fine job from the start.

[moonslav59]

It looks like Bogaerts will return to the lineup before Pedey is available. At that time, who gets sent down? Looks like the choice is between Holt and Lin. A comparison of those two utility guys is hard to make because of so few opportunities to see them, but at this time Lin would have to have an advantage. He seems have more range defensively and he has hit a little, whereas Holt is not hitting (.056 BA). When Pedey gets back, the choice gets more difficult and probably comes down to Holt/Lin and Swihart. That would mean putting all the infield Utility assignments into Nunez hands.

 

I'd make Nunez the number one sub for....

 

2B

3B

SS

LF

CF (Beni to CF)

RF (Beni to CF/JBJ to RF)

DH

 

7 slots for Nunez, and Cora's philosophy for keeping players fresh, should get Nunez all the PAs he deserves.

 

I'd keep Lin as our defensive IF sub.

 

I'd keep Swihart as our 3rd 1Bman, 3rd LF'er (OF'er), 3rd catcher and 3rd DH.

 

I'd keep Leon.

[Jasonbay44]

I'll continue criticizing a few things here and there, but I am far and far away from disliking Cora. He's done a fine job from the start.

 

Cora telling Phil Nevin to f*** off has really made me like him.

[moonslav59]

Sox hard hit % (LD%)

 

64 JMart (24%)

49 Betts (24%)

49 Devers (24%)

45 Moreland (15%)

37 Ramirez (23%)

36 Leon (18%)

29 Bogaerts (32)

24 Bradley (15%)

23 Vazquez (24%)

21 Nunez (14%)

17 Holt (17%)

11 Benintendi

 

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

@jcmccaffrey

 

In important news today, Holt has cut off all his hair.

 

Red Sox Stats

‏ @redsoxstats

21m21 minutes ago

 

That's hilarious, kids at the hospital asked Holt if he was Swihart's wife... so Holt cut his hair.

[Kimmi]

It looks like Bogaerts will return to the lineup before Pedey is available. At that time, who gets sent down? Looks like the choice is between Holt and Lin. A comparison of those two utility guys is hard to make because of so few opportunities to see them, but at this time Lin would have to have an advantage. He seems have more range defensively and he has hit a little, whereas Holt is not hitting (.056 BA). When Pedey gets back, the choice gets more difficult and probably comes down to Holt/Lin and Swihart. That would mean putting all the infield Utility assignments into Nunez hands.

 

I am not a Holt hater like some on here are, but based on what I've seen so far, Holt would be the odd man out for me, especially since he has an option.

[moonslav59]

I am not a Holt hater like some on here are, but based on what I've seen so far, Holt would be the odd man out for me, especially since he has an option.

 

When we traded for Hanrahan & Holt, I liked Holt. He certainly fell out of my favor.

 

The concussion really messed him up. I'd keep Lin and send Holt to AAA as depth.

[cp176]

When we traded for Hanrahan & Holt, I liked Holt. He certainly fell out of my favor.

 

The concussion really messed him up. I'd keep Lin and send Holt to AAA as depth.

 

I have nothing against Holt but this is about putting your best team on the field. Lin looks like he can help us. I'm glad that our injuries have been small to date but I have to say our depth looks better than good. Very happy for Swihart as well today.

[a700hitter]

The one thing in Holt's favor over Lin is that he can play the OF.

[Jasonbay44]

The one thing in Holt's favor over Lin is that he can play the OF.

 

We already have 4 outfielders and Swihart can play the outfield, and Lin plays all the infield positions better than Holt.

[a700hitter]

We already have 4 outfielders and Swihart can play the outfield, and Lin plays all the infield positions better than Holt.

Well, today when Betts got injured and our 4th OFer was playing DH we needed the extra OFer.

[Nick]

I am not a Holt hater like some on here are, but based on what I've seen so far, Holt would be the odd man out for me, especially since he has an option.

 

I will hate any Sox that sucks and don't deserve to be on the 25 man roster.

 

Lin is better defensive infielder. I would also play Nunez in front of Holt when Dustin returns.

 

I'd rate Holt behind Betts, Beni, JBJ, Martinez, Nunez and Swihart in the outfield.

 

I'm sure Holt is a great guy. I would buy him beer all night. Being nice doesn't make you a good baseball player.

[Jasonbay44]

Well, today when Betts got injured and our 4th OFer was playing DH we needed the extra OFer.

 

Swihart went to the outfield. Holt played 2B still.

[moonslav59]

I will hate any Sox that sucks and don't deserve to be on the 25 man roster.

 

Lin is better defensive infielder. I would also play Nunez in front of Holt when Dustin returns.

 

I'd rate Holt behind Betts, Beni, JBJ, Martinez, Nunez and Swihart in the outfield.

 

I'm sure Holt is a great guy. I would buy him beer all night. Being nice doesn't make you a good baseball player.

 

I'd put Moreland in LF before Holt, too.

[Bellhorn04]

I will hate any Sox that sucks and don't deserve to be on the 25 man roster.

 

Lin is better defensive infielder. I would also play Nunez in front of Holt when Dustin returns.

 

I'd rate Holt behind Betts, Beni, JBJ, Martinez, Nunez and Swihart in the outfield.

 

I'm sure Holt is a great guy. I would buy him beer all night. Being nice doesn't make you a good baseball player.

 

If Holt puts together a few more good games like yesterday and gets his numbers up he won't seem to suck quite as much. That's the way it usually works.

[Maxbialystock]

Holt turns 30 in June, and this is his 6th year on the Sox roster. He seems to have lost a step, at least on the basepaths. His two best years by far were 2014 and 2015, the very same years the Sox finished dead last in the AL East. Decades, maybe centuries ago in America castor oil was used for whatever ailed your kids. It tasted awful and was of marginal medicinal value, but mothers, like Sox managers, loved it because it could play all the outfield and infield positions.

[Bellhorn04]

I support any Red Sox player as long as the front office continues to support them. They know a lot more than I do.

[Maxbialystock]

I support any Red Sox player as long as the front office continues to support them. They know a lot more than I do.

 

If they know more than you, they sure as heck know more than me, but the castor oil metaphor beckoned.

 

Only my opinion, but to me the one truly versatile player on the roster is Swihart, who can catch and play the OF and 3B and probably 1B. Plus I think he is a better hitter than Holt.

[Bellhorn04]

If they know more than you, they sure as heck know more than me, but the castor oil metaphor beckoned.

 

Only my opinion, but to me the one truly versatile player on the roster is Swihart, who can catch and play the OF and 3B and probably 1B. Plus I think he is a better hitter than Holt.

 

Swihart may turn out to be a much better player than Holt, no question. I like him too. It's a great thing to have a strong bench.

 

I'm old enough to still bemoan what an awful bench we had in 1978.

[Kimmi]

When we traded for Hanrahan & Holt, I liked Holt. He certainly fell out of my favor.

 

The concussion really messed him up. I'd keep Lin and send Holt to AAA as depth.

 

I have never had an issue with Holt, or with the Sox tendering him a contract this year. My belief is still that he brings value to the team just in his ability to play several positions, even though he doesn't play any of them very well. I give him a pass for last year, due to the concussion.

 

I was and still am hoping that he will return to a player closer to his previous levels. He hasn't looked good yet, but it's a very small sample.

 

All that said, I like what Lin brings to the team with his defense and speed. His bat has been better than Holt's. So, I would also keep Lin and send Holt to AAA.

[Kimmi]

I will hate any Sox that sucks and don't deserve to be on the 25 man roster.

 

Lin is better defensive infielder. I would also play Nunez in front of Holt when Dustin returns.

 

I'd rate Holt behind Betts, Beni, JBJ, Martinez, Nunez and Swihart in the outfield.

 

I'm sure Holt is a great guy. I would buy him beer all night. Being nice doesn't make you a good baseball player.

 

You may hate whatever player you want, Nick.

 

As far as the rest of your post goes, I happen to agree with it.

[oldtimer]

I have never had an issue with Holt, or with the Sox tendering him a contract this year. My belief is still that he brings value to the team just in his ability to play several positions, even though he doesn't play any of them very well. I give him a pass for last year, due to the concussion.

 

I was and still am hoping that he will return to a player closer to his previous levels. He hasn't looked good yet, but it's a very small sample.

 

All that said, I like what Lin brings to the team with his defense and speed. His bat has been better than Holt's. So, I would also keep Lin and send Holt to AAA.

 

Thats the point I was making. At some point soon, unless we sustain another meaningful injury, a choice will have to be made. It is pretty clear which players the choice will come down to and the manager and FO is paid to make those decisions. Logically, you choose the guy who can do the most for the team, and that doesn't mean the guy who goes down is terrible, just not quite as good.

[moonslav59]

If Holt puts together a few more good games like yesterday and gets his numbers up he won't seem to suck quite as much. That's the way it usually works.

 

Even if he gets up to around.700, where he was before the concussion, his defense is not good enough to put him head of anybody on the depth chart at any position.

 

Stash him in AAA for added depth or trade him to save over a million dollars (to be spent at the deadline).

[moonslav59]

We're going to have a lot of choices to make once our players on the DL return. Here's a look at some possible decisions to be made:

 

(Price is not on the DL, but when he returns, Velazquez to the pen.)

 

Pomeranz: Walden to AAA & Johnson to the pen.

 

Bogaerts: Holt to AAA & Lin to the bench (or swap roles)

 

Wright: After as long of a rehab as possible, a tough choice will need to be made. Wright and Hembree are out of options, so if Wright is deemed better than Velazquez or Johnson, we might trade Wright (or Hembree), or just keep starter depth in AAA by demoting Johnson or Velazquez.

 

Poyner: Will go to AAA.

 

Thornburg: We'll have to trade Hembree or Wright or send down the remaining guy from Johnson/Velazquez.

 

Pedroia: Lin (or Holt, if he remained after Bogey's return) to AAA.

 

Hernandez: to AAA.

 

The full and healthy Sox roster might look like this:

 

SP'ers: Sale, Price, Pom, ERod, Porcello (AAA: Johnson/Velazquez)

RP'ers: Kimbrel, Smith, Thornburg, Kelly, Barnes, Wright, Hembree

(AAA: Poyner, Walden, Maddox, Scott, Workman, Elias)

C: Vaz, Leon, Swihart

1B: HRam, Moreland (AAA: Travis)

2B: Pedroia (AAA: Hernandez, Quiroz AA)

UT: Nunez (Lin)

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Beni (AAA: Castillo/Barfield)

CF: JBJ

RF: Betts

OF/DH: JMart

 

[Bellhorn04]

Even if he gets up to around.700, where he was before the concussion, his defense is not good enough to put him head of anybody on the depth chart at any position.

 

You can keep saying this as much as you want.

 

The advanced metrics say he somehow mustered back to back 2 fWAR seasons playing about 2/3 of the time. So there's that.

[moonslav59]

You can keep saying this as much as you want.

 

The advanced metrics say he somehow mustered back to back 2 fWAR seasons playing about 2/3 of the time. So there's that.

 

If you think Holt hitting .711 like 2014 and .727 like 2015 would be a 2+ WAR player this year (playing FT), with his defense the way it is now, then I'll have to disagree.

 

I realize my opinion differs from others, and I'm not pretending to know more than anyone else here, but here's how I see Holt's position on any long term injury depth chart: (Note: if someone gets hurt long term the job might be shared, but the player I put ahead of Holt, should in my opinion, get more time.)

 

1B: HRam> Moreland> Swihart> Call up Travis, then Holt

2B: Pedroia> Nunez> Hernandez, Lin or Holt

3B: Devers> Nunez> Hernandez, Lin, Swihart or Holt

SS: Bogaerts> Nunez> Lin> Hernandez or Holt

LF: Beni> Nunez or JMart> Swihart or Moreland, then Holt

CF & RF: Move Beni to CF and put in LF: Nunez or JMart> Swihart or Moreland, then Holt

 

I see Holt no better than tied for 3rd slot at 2B and 3B and no better than the 4th slot at other positions. Paying $2.2M for that is not a very good idea, IMO.