A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[cp176]

What i mean is that it’s not by much and it won’t be for long. 1) we paid a heavy price in prospects to get Sale at his current salary. That was part of it. 2) Pedey only makes 16M one year, this year. Then it creeps back down again.

 

I’m sure Sale will make double the money Pedroia will ever make and more.

 

I knew exactly what you meant and I agree with you.

[Nick]

Upcoming salary relief:

 

$22M HRam after 2018 or 2019

$3.8M Kelly after 2018

$19M Pablo after 2019

$21M Porcello after 2019

$6.5M Moreland after 2019

$??? Holt after 2019 (at $2.2M now)

$??? Thornburg after 2019 ($2.1M now)

 

Going to be hard to replace at current costs:

$13M Kimbrel after 2018

$8.5M Pom after 2018

$13M C Sale after 2019

$??? Bogey after 2019

$4M Nunez after 2019

 

Betts & JBJ after 2020.

 

Hanley situation will play out.

I have no interest in bringing back Kelly.

If Johnson develops this year than you have to think about simply making Pom a qualifying offer.

Again, something has to give.

Sale, Price, Porcello, E Rod and Johnson/TBD.

I'd also think about trading away JBJ.

 

I prefer not to do anything, but you can't have it all.

[moonslav59]

Hanley situation will play out.

I have no interest in bringing back Kelly.

If Johnson develops this year than you have to think about simply making Pom a qualifying offer.

Again, something has to give.

Sale, Price, Porcello, E Rod and Johnson/TBD.

I'd also think about trading away JBJ.

 

I prefer not to do anything, but you can't have it all.

 

The salary relief list was who I feel should or will not come back.

 

If we offer Pom a QO , and he takes it, we'll be in budget trouble.

[moonslav59]

Game 2:

74 strikes

35 balls

 

Nice job staff.

[Nick]

The salary relief list was who I feel should or will not come back.

 

If we offer Pom a QO , and he takes it, we'll be in budget trouble.

 

Don't we want to recoup something?

[Bellhorn04]

Don't we want to recoup something?

 

Yes, I would think so.

 

Big contract season for Pom.

[jacksonianmarch]

What nobody is factoring in is the arb costs for your current players. The "saved money" from Hanley will be eaten by Betts, Bogaerts, ERod, and Bradley. The money coming off the books that isn't currently earmarked for arb raises is what Kimbrel and Pom make and that is basically equivalent to Hanley's AAV. So you have $22 mil or so to sign a closer and a 3rd starter. I am intrigued as to which way DD will go. Maybe he moves Bradley for a cheaper 3rd starter, pushes JD to LF and signs a guy like Morrison on the cheap to DH while allowing the team to keep Kimbrel.

 

I know a lot of people on here think letting Kimbrel go is the way DD will go, but I think that's a mistake. Pom is an effective starter, although he is a pen drain. Kimbrel is as automatic as it got in 2017 and even in a "down" 2016 season, he was still damn good. With pen specialization and more matchups being used, having a relief ace is a good thing.

[Bellhorn04]

What nobody is factoring in is the arb costs for your current players. The "saved money" from Hanley will be eaten by Betts, Bogaerts, ERod, and Bradley. The money coming off the books that isn't currently earmarked for arb raises is what Kimbrel and Pom make and that is basically equivalent to Hanley's AAV. So you have $22 mil or so to sign a closer and a 3rd starter. I am intrigued as to which way DD will go. Maybe he moves Bradley for a cheaper 3rd starter, pushes JD to LF and signs a guy like Morrison on the cheap to DH while allowing the team to keep Kimbrel.

 

I know a lot of people on here think letting Kimbrel go is the way DD will go, but I think that's a mistake. Pom is an effective starter, although he is a pen drain. Kimbrel is as automatic as it got in 2017 and even in a "down" 2016 season, he was still damn good. With pen specialization and more matchups being used, having a relief ace is a good thing.

 

moon is our only serious number-cruncher with the payroll stuff and he tries to factor the arb raises in.

 

We may have no choice but to trade Bradley.

 

Kimbrel is a tough call any way you look at it. He might command 5/90. As good as he is, that's too much.

[Bellhorn04]

The real wild card is our owner. JH turns 70 in 2019 and he is worth billions. Maybe he just wants to say screw it to all the tax considerations because he wants to win one more title before he sells the team or dies.

[Emp9]

moon is our only serious number-cruncher with the payroll stuff and he tries to factor the arb raises in.

 

We may have no choice but to trade Bradley.

 

Kimbrel is a tough call any way you look at it. He might command 5/90. As good as he is, that's too much.

 

That’s right, Moon mentions them all the time. By themselves they’re a little hard to predict accurately from year to year. For a while I thought Sox may have to trade XB, rather than JBJ. JBJ has one more year of arbitration, making $1M less than XB presently, and going forward I think JBJ will demand less (arb-wise & contract wise). We could keep our OF defense, tade XB for a cost controlled SP (maybe somebody decent depending on what kind of season XB has this year), upgrade our SS/infield defense, then pick up another 1B on the cheap (or promote Travis if he’s ready and save). I don't know if this would be the best route to go, but it’s an option. A lot of difficult decisions on the horizon.

[Nick]

What nobody is factoring in is the arb costs for your current players. The "saved money" from Hanley will be eaten by Betts, Bogaerts, ERod, and Bradley. The money coming off the books that isn't currently earmarked for arb raises is what Kimbrel and Pom make and that is basically equivalent to Hanley's AAV. So you have $22 mil or so to sign a closer and a 3rd starter. I am intrigued as to which way DD will go. Maybe he moves Bradley for a cheaper 3rd starter, pushes JD to LF and signs a guy like Morrison on the cheap to DH while allowing the team to keep Kimbrel.

 

I know a lot of people on here think letting Kimbrel go is the way DD will go, but I think that's a mistake. Pom is an effective starter, although he is a pen drain. Kimbrel is as automatic as it got in 2017 and even in a "down" 2016 season, he was still damn good. With pen specialization and more matchups being used, having a relief ace is a good thing.

 

Second tier penalty of 12.5% maybe acceptable to Henry. That percentage remains the same. Basically it's $2.5M. Problem is the 1st tier penalty because the penalty rate increases quickly from 20% to 30% to 50%. I seriously doubt Henry wants to be stuck at 50% penalty long term.

 

So from where I sit, we have three year window before the team is somewhat dismantled. Dismantled maybe little strong. What I'm saying is we can't keep everyone. Henry will pay 50% ONCE, but no more. He will want a reset.

 

One mitigating factor is that new CBA will come into play in 2022. I suspect that players are not happy with current arrangement. Acceleration in revenue far exceeds that of luxury tax limit. More money is flowing into owner's pocket.

 

Sox will need to prioritize. Hanley situation will play out. If we're able to get out of his contract, ie no vesting, I have no illusion of THAT $22M savings going nowhere but to pay for arbitration increases. I'm hoping Pom has a great year so that we can offer him a qualifying offer to recoup some of his acquisition price (our once highly rated prospect that went to San Diego). Someone like Johnson will need to step up and fill the void.

 

I think DD values Kimbrel and he'll be back. It's silly to have Sale and Price and not to have a quality closer.

 

No doubt, juggling money will be a challenge. Something Yankees have under control.

 

For 2020, Sandoval's money will pay for arbitration raises and Porcello's $20M will be used on top of Sale's $13M to re-sign him. Again, another starter internally needs to emerge. Our top 3 should be Sale, Price and E Rod. We can do worse.

 

Kimbrel, Sale and Betts are my priorities. (yeah I can day dream and think Carson Smith can replace Kimbrel but that appears not to be realistic)

Edited March 31, 2018 by Nick

[Kimmi]

moon is our only serious number-cruncher with the payroll stuff and he tries to factor the arb raises in.

 

We may have no choice but to trade Bradley.

 

Kimbrel is a tough call any way you look at it. He might command 5/90. As good as he is, that's too much.

 

As Spud mentioned, Kimbrel just might be willing to leave some money on the table to remain in Boston because of the medical care that his daughter will continue to need. I don't know whether he would give enough of a discount to make him worth signing, but it's possible.

 

That said, I still believe that as good as Kimbrel is, we can find nearly as much value in a closer for much less money. I'd prefer to spend that money elsewhere.

[Emp9]

As Spud mentioned, Kimbrel just might be willing to leave some money on the table to remain in Boston because of the medical care that his daughter will continue to need. I don't know whether he would give enough of a discount to make him worth signing, but it's possible.

 

That said, I still believe that as good as Kimbrel is, we can find nearly as much value in a closer for much less money. I'd prefer to spend that money elsewhere.

 

Hmmm, I don’t know. Considering the day & night comparisons between Game #1 and Game #2? I’d try to re-sign Kimbrel if at all possible. Maybe it’s too soon to think about this? Kimbrel has never looked better. No stress. A pure calm wave of victory. Any more f***-ups like Game #1 and I predict an even tighter grasp with the opioid epidemic that’s currently gripping the country. Boston needs to re-sign Kimbrel for their fans... for America even.

[Kimmi]

Hmmm, I don’t know. Considering the day & night comparisons between Game #1 and Game #2? I’d try to re-sign Kimbrel if at all possible. Maybe it’s too soon to think about this? Kimbrel has never looked better. No stress. A pure calm wave of victory. Any more f***-ups like Game #1 and I predict an even tighter grasp with the opioid epidemic that’s currently gripping the country. Boston needs to re-sign Kimbrel for their fans... for America even. ����

 

LOL

 

Well, I didn't say Joe Kelly was the answer. Just that there is an answer that can be found for cheaper.

 

You make a good point about Kimbrel showing calmness. I was concerned that his daughter's health might be a distraction, but early on, her illness seems to be having a calming effect on his performance. One, he knows that baseball is insignificant in comparison to the bigger picture. Two, he's pitching for Lydia. He seems to be in a really good place right now.

[moonslav59]

Don't we want to recoup something?

 

Arb raises are going to use up all the dea money we lose, and then some. We'll have to tade someone to keep others, and thus create new holes somehow.

 

I'm pretty much convinced, we'll have to go over the $40M mark or lose Kimbrel and/or maybe trade JBJ (for something cheap in $$$).

 

[moonslav59]

What nobody is factoring in is the arb costs for your current players. The "saved money" from Hanley will be eaten by Betts, Bogaerts, ERod, and Bradley. The money coming off the books that isn't currently earmarked for arb raises is what Kimbrel and Pom make and that is basically equivalent to Hanley's AAV. So you have $22 mil or so to sign a closer and a 3rd starter. I am intrigued as to which way DD will go. Maybe he moves Bradley for a cheaper 3rd starter, pushes JD to LF and signs a guy like Morrison on the cheap to DH while allowing the team to keep Kimbrel.

 

I know a lot of people on here think letting Kimbrel go is the way DD will go, but I think that's a mistake. Pom is an effective starter, although he is a pen drain. Kimbrel is as automatic as it got in 2017 and even in a "down" 2016 season, he was still damn good. With pen specialization and more matchups being used, having a relief ace is a good thing.

 

I've done multiple posts factoring in the arb costs.

[moonslav59]

moon is our only serious number-cruncher with the payroll stuff and he tries to factor the arb raises in.

 

We may have no choice but to trade Bradley.

 

Kimbrel is a tough call any way you look at it. He might command 5/90. As good as he is, that's too much.

 

I just read your post after posting my similar one.

 

I think it may com down to choosing to keep Kimbrel or trade JBJ for a low contract. We may even lose both, especially if HRam vests.

[moonslav59]

Second tier penalty of 12.5% maybe acceptable to Henry. That percentage remains the same. Basically it's $2.5M. Problem is the 1st tier penalty because the penalty rate increases quickly from 20% to 30% to 50%. I seriously doubt Henry wants to be stuck at 50% penalty long term.

 

So from where I sit, we have three year window before the team is somewhat dismantled. Dismantled maybe little strong. What I'm saying is we can't keep everyone. Henry will pay 50% ONCE, but no more. He will want a reset.

 

One mitigating factor is that new CBA will come into play in 2022. I suspect that players are not happy with current arrangement. Acceleration in revenue far exceeds that of luxury tax limit. More money is flowing into owner's pocket.

 

Sox will need to prioritize. Hanley situation will play out. If we're able to get out of his contract, ie no vesting, I have no illusion of THAT $22M savings going nowhere but to pay for arbitration increases. I'm hoping Pom has a great year so that we can offer him a qualifying offer to recoup some of his acquisition price (our once highly rated prospect that went to San Diego). Someone like Johnson will need to step up and fill the void.

 

I think DD values Kimbrel and he'll be back. It's silly to have Sale and Price and not to have a quality closer.

 

No doubt, juggling money will be a challenge. Something Yankees have under control.

 

For 2020, Sandoval's money will pay for arbitration raises and Porcello's $20M will be used on top of Sale's $13M to re-sign him. Again, another starter internally needs to emerge. Our top 3 should be Sale, Price and E Rod. We can do worse.

 

Kimbrel, Sale and Betts are my priorities. (yeah I can day dream and think Carson Smith can replace Kimbrel but that appears not to be realistic)

 

Hoping an internal starting pitcher steps it up appears not to be realistic as well.

 

We needs some "hopes" (or miracles) to come from our farm or from guys like Johnson or Wright to not see a drop off when we start losing guys like Kimbrel and/or JBJ or Bogey.

 

Unless something happens and soon, the writing is on the wall for our extended future.

 

JH can choose to be taxed to hell and back, so we can extend the window a year or two, but even then, we may need at least one miracle (Travis? Groome? Johnson? C Smith? ....)

[Spudboy]

moon is our only serious number-cruncher with the payroll stuff and he tries to factor the arb raises in.

 

We may have no choice but to trade Bradley.

 

Kimbrel is a tough call any way you look at it. He might command 5/90. As good as he is, that's too much.

 

I'd certainly take a run at keeping him.

 

I speak from ignorance of market value but I can't see anyone paying $18. mil for 5 years on a closer his age.

 

I would offer him $16. for 3 years and draw the line.

 

I think he has good reasons to stay in Boston as the care for his Daughter was initiated here and she will be needing much more care. Jacko makes a solid point that there are 4-5 other cities that offer state of the art and maybe cutting edge pediatric care. Still, making the jump to unknown care givers may not seem like a comfortable thing to do with the child's life in the balance.

 

Maybe I am reading far to much into this but maybe not.

 

They really need to get this done. I don't think it's that complicated.

[moonslav59]

I'd certainly take a run at keeping him.

 

I speak from ignorance of market value but I can't see anyone paying $18. mil for 5 years on a closer his age.

 

I would offer him $16. for 3 years and draw the line.

 

I think he has good reasons to stay in Boston as the care for his Daughter was initiated here and she will be needing much more care. Jacko makes a solid point that there are 4-5 other cities that offer state of the art and maybe cutting edge pediatric care. Still, making the jump to unknown care givers may not seem like a comfortable thing to do with the child's life in the balance.

 

Maybe I am reading far to much into this but maybe not.

 

They really need to get this done. I don't think it's that complicated.

 

They may offer Kimbrel and Pom QOs and let the chips fall where they may. If they say no, we get a draft pick and some money to spend- granted not nearly enough money freed up to replace either one, but something maybe cheaper than they will cost us anyways.

 

It's one way to try and build up the farm again.

 

If I had to guess, I think we lose Kimbrel and Bogey, but maybe we trade JBJ and try to keep one of 'em.

[Spudboy]

Second tier penalty of 12.5% maybe acceptable to Henry. That percentage remains the same. Basically it's $2.5M. Problem is the 1st tier penalty because the penalty rate increases quickly from 20% to 30% to 50%. I seriously doubt Henry wants to be stuck at 50% penalty long term.

 

So from where I sit, we have three year window before the team is somewhat dismantled. Dismantled maybe little strong. What I'm saying is we can't keep everyone. Henry will pay 50% ONCE, but no more. He will want a reset.

 

One mitigating factor is that new CBA will come into play in 2022. I suspect that players are not happy with current arrangement. Acceleration in revenue far exceeds that of luxury tax limit. More money is flowing into owner's pocket.

 

Sox will need to prioritize. Hanley situation will play out. If we're able to get out of his contract, ie no vesting, I have no illusion of THAT $22M savings going nowhere but to pay for arbitration increases. I'm hoping Pom has a great year so that we can offer him a qualifying offer to recoup some of his acquisition price (our once highly rated prospect that went to San Diego). Someone like Johnson will need to step up and fill the void.

 

I think DD values Kimbrel and he'll be back. It's silly to have Sale and Price and not to have a quality closer.

 

No doubt, juggling money will be a challenge. Something Yankees have under control.

 

For 2020, Sandoval's money will pay for arbitration raises and Porcello's $20M will be used on top of Sale's $13M to re-sign him. Again, another starter internally needs to emerge. Our top 3 should be Sale, Price and E Rod. We can do worse.

 

Kimbrel, Sale and Betts are my priorities. (yeah I can day dream and think Carson Smith can replace Kimbrel but that appears not to be realistic)

 

Excellent f***ing post Nick.

[cp176]

Second tier penalty of 12.5% maybe acceptable to Henry. That percentage remains the same. Basically it's $2.5M. Problem is the 1st tier penalty because the penalty rate increases quickly from 20% to 30% to 50%. I seriously doubt Henry wants to be stuck at 50% penalty long term.

 

So from where I sit, we have three year window before the team is somewhat dismantled. Dismantled maybe little strong. What I'm saying is we can't keep everyone. Henry will pay 50% ONCE, but no more. He will want a reset.

 

One mitigating factor is that new CBA will come into play in 2022. I suspect that players are not happy with current arrangement. Acceleration in revenue far exceeds that of luxury tax limit. More money is flowing into owner's pocket.

 

Sox will need to prioritize. Hanley situation will play out. If we're able to get out of his contract, ie no vesting, I have no illusion of THAT $22M savings going nowhere but to pay for arbitration increases. I'm hoping Pom has a great year so that we can offer him a qualifying offer to recoup some of his acquisition price (our once highly rated prospect that went to San Diego). Someone like Johnson will need to step up and fill the void.

 

I think DD values Kimbrel and he'll be back. It's silly to have Sale and Price and not to have a quality closer.

 

No doubt, juggling money will be a challenge. Something Yankees have under control.

 

For 2020, Sandoval's money will pay for arbitration raises and Porcello's $20M will be used on top of Sale's $13M to re-sign him. Again, another starter internally needs to emerge. Our top 3 should be Sale, Price and E Rod. We can do worse.

 

Kimbrel, Sale and Betts are my priorities. (yeah I can day dream and think Carson Smith can replace Kimbrel but that appears not to be realistic)

 

I like your post also here Nick probably because I agree with most of it. The jury is still out on most of these guys for me. I don't feel emotionally tied to very many of them as well. If a healthy lot of them do not wind up spending a great deal of time with us, I would be ok with that. Unless what we saw last year wasn't who they really are and we see significant improvement from many of them, I don't care if we keep them or not.

 

Sale - Kimbrel - Betts - Devers - Bogaerts ( I've liked him for a long time - hope he keeps hitting) I know that Devers is with us for a while anyway but I just like how he looks - works - and plays. Why isn't Benintendi on my list? Oh I don't know - just because.

I actually do hope that I can develop some positive emotion for some others but I need to see them play better before they get to my list. I think that most of them are replaceable.

 

If Kimbrel has a year anywhere like what he had lat year, I think that they have to make a big run at him. His talent cannot in my estimation be replaced by the normal methods used to build a bullpen. He has been to relief pitching what Sale has been to starting pitching. Tough to put a price on the best.

[moonslav59]

Bogey's making a case for sticking around.

 

5 doubles and an HR in 2.5 games!

[cp176]

Bogey's making a case for sticking around.

 

5 doubles and an HR in 2.5 games!

 

I've liked him for a while now. The first winter that he spent working out with Pedroia in Arizona did it for me. Understand though Moon, I'm one of those guys who like him in the field no matter what all the analytics tell. He's bright and he works hard and he plays one of the toughest positions in the game to play. If he is healthy , his combination of positive things would be hard to replace.

[Jasonbay44]

I've liked him for a while now. The first winter that he spent working out with Pedroia in Arizona did it for me. Understand though Moon, I'm one of those guys who like him in the field no matter what all the analytics tell. He's bright and he works hard and he plays one of the toughest positions in the game to play. If he is healthy , his combination of positive things would be hard to replace.

 

I agree with this. I have been and always will be firmly on the Xander bandwagon.

[moonslav59]

I wish he was better defensively, but he's certainly a big plus at ss

[Spudboy]

His defense is not a liability.

 

If he is healthy, he should hit.

 

Not sure there is much to complain about.

[Natick to NC]

X has crap range at SS but the man can hit ...

[Spudboy]

X has crap range at SS but the man can hit ...

 

He is clearly not a top SS defensively but he does make most of the plays and has improved since he came up.

 

If he hits .300 -.320 I couldn't care less about his perceived range deficiency.

[moonslav59]

He is clearly not a top SS defensively but he does make most of the plays and has improved since he came up.

 

If he hits .300 -.320 I couldn't care less about his perceived range deficiency.

 

I disagree. He got better a little bit, then he regressed over the lasr 2+ years.

 

2013-2015

 

+0.1 UZR/150 (thanks to 2015's +1.0)

- 8 DRS in 2293 innings

 

 

2016-2018

 

-2.3 UZR/150

-20 DRS in 2706 innings