A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

I seriously doubt it's a record. Check out the Dodgers 2012-2017.

 

Opening Day

1999 Yankees +$7M over 2nd place/ $13M 3rd place

00 Yankess +4ZM over 2nd place/ +8M over 3rd

01 Yanks $200K over BOS/ $1M 3rd

02 Yanks +$17M BOS/ $20M

03 Yanks $35M/$46M

04 Yanks $57M/$81M

05 Yanks $85M/$101M

06 Yanks $75M/$91M

07 Yanks $47M/$74M

08 Yanks $72M/$72M

09 Yanks $66M/$66M

10 Yanks $44M/$60M

11 Yanks $29M/$40M

12 Yanks $23M/$24M

13 Yanks $12M LAD/$63M PHI

14 LAD $32M NYY $55M PHI

15 LAD $53M/$85M BOS

16 LAD $10M/$41M BOS

17 LAD $41M/$42M BOS

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Sox are the evil empire.

[moonslav59]

Sox are the evil empire.

 

Not yet, but...

[Kimmi]

This is kind of a tough post for me because I know that some will disagree pointedly and I will probably question to myself of course if they are actually being honest or taking the high road and trying make themselves sound good. When King George started to do his thing, the game changed. My Red Spx friends as well as myself were very upset with what he did. After I while, even though we hated the change we were seeing, it became fairly apparent that our anger had as much to do with jealousy as anything else. You are right about one thing Moon, I will not be a hypocrite when it comes to this one. This is as much new school as anything I have seen in ml baseball. Big market teams with a lot of money to spend who continually make money while spending do in fact buy wins. I am a Red Sox fan and I want them to be competitive every year which I think they will be. It is why I absolutely do not buy into this cliff theory that many here are trying to sell. As long as John Henry owns this team, I doubt that we ever stumble over any cliff. Call me old school for sure because I truly do miss the old days when teams grew their own for the most part and brains in my estimation played a greater role in overall team development. I also loved the fact that in many instances players spent their careers playing for one team and loyalty was earned and respected. Sadly I don't see us going back and I am not angered by any team's moves anymore nor am I jealous of them. I believe that we are at the top of the food chain and I am ok with that. Now understand that this is just my idea of a rant and it is just a silly opinion.

 

I have never liked the philosophy of spending big. I have never been a fan of big contracts. I am all about the farm system and finding the right 2nd tier type players to fill in the holes. I much prefer a Mitch Moreland type contract over a JD Martinez type contract.

 

I absolutely loved the signings before the 2013 season.

[Kimmi]

It will be interesting to see how much patience Cora will have for JBJ. Especially if he gets off to a slow start.

 

Cora has said something to the effect of sitting a player when he sees the first sign of a slump. I don't remember the exact context, but I believe he feels that sitting a player in the early 'stages' of a slump helps to stave off the slump.

[Kimmi]

Sox are the evil empire.

 

[cp176]

I have never liked the philosophy of spending big. I have never been a fan of big contracts. I am all about the farm system and finding the right 2nd tier type players to fill in the holes. I much prefer a Mitch Moreland type contract over a JD Martinez type contract.

 

I absolutely loved the signings before the 2013 season.

 

Good

[Maxbialystock]

Cora has said something to the effect of sitting a player when he sees the first sign of a slump. I don't remember the exact context, but I believe he feels that sitting a player in the early 'stages' of a slump helps to stave off the slump.

 

This would comport with the other Cora-ism that he likes to use his bench. JBJ practically invented the slump.

[moonslav59]

Cora has said something to the effect of sitting a player when he sees the first sign of a slump. I don't remember the exact context, but I believe he feels that sitting a player in the early 'stages' of a slump helps to stave off the slump.

 

Kind of hard to pinpoint thate exact time a slump is starting (or will continue).

 

I'm not against the idea, but let's see how it works out.

[Spudboy]

Kind of hard to pinpoint thate exact time a slump is starting (or will continue).

 

I'm not against the idea, but let's see how it works out.

 

You make a good point. How many 0-4, 0-5s does it take to see something is going to be a problem.

 

Maybe a batter has just faced two guys ( plus relief ) that he just does not hit well.

 

With injuries you can start to justify suspecting an merging slump.

[moonslav59]

You make a good point. How many 0-4, 0-5s does it take to see something is going to be a problem.

 

Maybe a batter has just faced two guys ( plus relief ) that he just does not hit well.

 

With injuries you can start to justify suspecting an merging slump.

 

On the flip side, it often felt like JF would sit players just as they were showing signs of heating up.

 

No data to back that up- just a feeling I got often.

[harmony]

FanGraphs ranks the Red Sox bullpen seventh in projected WAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-1-15/

[jacksonianmarch]

The craziest this about our pen is that we aren’t limited to our big league roster. We’ve got arms in the minors with velocities only surpassed by chapman. If Acevedo gets converted, his velocity could match Chap’s. Kid is topping out at 102 as a starter

[moonslav59]

The craziest this about our pen is that we aren’t limited to our big league roster. We’ve got arms in the minors with velocities only surpassed by chapman. If Acevedo gets converted, his velocity could match Chap’s. Kid is topping out at 102 as a starter

 

Maybe they'll end up being as good as Kelly.

[moonslav59]

Speaking of pens, here's a list of Sox pitchers likely to see some time in the Sox pen this season:

 

Kimbrel

Smith

Thronburg (DL)

Kelly

Barnes

Hembree

Poyner

Walden

Workman

Scott

Maddox (DL)

Elias

 

Starters perhaps used in the pen: Wright/Johnson/Velazquez/Beeks/Haley/Sheperd

 

Maybe...

Buttrey

Martin

Layne

Jerez (DL)

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Sox vs opening day starter Chris Archer (RHP):

 

PAs Player OPS

54 Pedey .703

39 Betts 1.352

34 Bogey .653

31 JBJ .544

26 Holt .500

25 HRam .773

18 JMart .748

13 Moreland .748

11 Beni 1.145

 

Chris Sale vs TBR last year:

 

4-1 2.66 (.564 OPS against/0.885 WHIP))

 

At TB

 

1-1 3.48 (.637 OPS against/0.919 WHIP)

 

 

[notin]

The craziest this about our pen is that do nothing if they're not stRikes. ..we aren’t limited to our big league roster. We’ve got arms in the minors with velocities only surpassed by chapman. If Acevedo gets converted, his velocity could match Chap’s. Kid is topping out at 102 as a starter

 

You know, there is more to pitching than velocity. 100mph fastballs do nothing if their not strikes...

[moonslav59]

I'm not a huge fan on thinking ST'ing numbers are indicators of what is to come, but here are some interesting factoids:

 

Catcher OPS:

1.058 Vaz (38 ABs)

.771 Swihart (66)

.833 Leon (30)

 

Top OPS

1.236 Beni (46) Ready for a bust out season?

1.058 Vaz (38) Maybe last year's offensive surge was not a fluke.

1.042 Betts (52) We sure could use the "old" Betts in 2018!

.961 Bogey (47) Hopefully, this is a sign he's over the wrist issues.

.948 Sam Travis (63) Maybe we've found that in-house boost we need.

.946 Devers (50) Could this be a very special year for the kid?

.846 Moreland (45) I'd like nothing more than for Mitch to prove me wrong.

 

Walden (0.64 in 14 IP) and Poyner (0.87 in 10 IP) earned their slots on the 25 man, but what about Haley? He pitched 17 innings with a 2.12 ERA.

 

Nice to see Johnson looking good: 2-0 1.72 (0.83 WHIP)

 

I'd love for Price to keep this up for 32 starts:

3-0 2.25 (0.85 WHIP)

Edited March 28, 2018 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

I'm just listing the takeaways rather than the whole article. It's a good read so I suggest you do so.

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2018/03/mastrodonato_10_red_sox_takeaways_as_they_close_spring_training

 

1. Cora has the confidence to be himself

 

2. Players are buying into the aggressiveness

 

3. Hanley Ramirez is taking this seriously, and Cora is taking him seriously

 

4. J.D. Martinez really wants to play the outfield

 

5. Christian Vazquez will be more involved

 

6. Pitchers are loving their new routines

 

7. Craig Kimbrel doesn’t need much practice, but the rest of the bullpen is a question mark

 

8. Brian Johnson could play a big role

 

9. It won’t be an easy road for Steven Wright and Tyler Thornburg

 

10. The owners are serious

[moonslav59]

I'm just listing the takeaways rather than the whole article. It's a good read so I suggest you do so.

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2018/03/mastrodonato_10_red_sox_takeaways_as_they_close_spring_training

 

1. Cora has the confidence to be himself

 

2. Players are buying into the aggressiveness

 

3. Hanley Ramirez is taking this seriously, and Cora is taking him seriously

 

4. J.D. Martinez really wants to play the outfield

 

5. Christian Vazquez will be more involved

 

6. Pitchers are loving their new routines

 

7. Craig Kimbrel doesn’t need much practice, but the rest of the bullpen is a question mark

 

8. Brian Johnson could play a big role

 

9. It won’t be an easy road for Steven Wright and Tyler Thornburg

 

10. The owners are serious

 

Thanks. Good read.

 

I don't disagree with anything. That doesn't happen often.

 

 

[oldtimer]

Sox vs opening day starter Chris Archer (RHP):

 

PAs Player OPS

54 Pedey .703

39 Betts 1.352

34 Bogey .653

31 JBJ .544

26 Holt .500

25 HRam .773

18 JMart .748

13 Moreland .748

11 Beni 1.145

 

Chris Sale vs TBR last year:

 

4-1 2.66 (.564 OPS against/0.885 WHIP))

 

At TB

 

1-1 3.48 (.637 OPS against/0.919 WHIP)

 

 

 

I didn't think Pedey is ready for tomorrow's start!

[Maxbialystock]

You know, there is more to pitching than velocity. 100mph fastballs do nothing if their not strikes...

 

Actually, velocity by itself is over rated. Over 5 years ago Verlander threw 100 mph to rookie Daniel Nava, who went opposite field with a clean, sharp single. Kimbrel gets in trouble when his curve/slider isn't tempting the hitters, but is devastating when he mixes it with his fastball.

 

That said, I'm also a big believer that good location on whatever pitch is very important.

[Maxbialystock]

Thanks. Good read.

 

I don't disagree with anything. That doesn't happen often.

 

 

 

Yup. 10 Cora-related things that sound pretty good. I especially like the one about being more aggressive at bat because last year I thought we were giving away a lot of easy first strikes.

[mvp 78]

Yup. 10 Cora-related things that sound pretty good. I especially like the one about being more aggressive at bat because last year I thought we were giving away a lot of easy first strikes.

 

My favorite part was the tidbit about Hanley being the only infielder who was shifting correctly based on the cards they follow.

[moonslav59]

I didn't think Pedey is ready for tomorrow's start!

 

He's not. I just listed all current Sox players with 10+ PAs.

[moonslav59]

My favorite part was the tidbit about Hanley being the only infielder who was shifting correctly based on the cards they follow.

 

 

I think this one may have the most impact:

 

Chris Sale and David Price looked at each other and smiled when Cora first suggested they do less work between starts and slow down their spring training build-ups to be more rested later in the year. The starting pitchers loved the routine so much that the relievers eventually began scaling back too. It’s a gamble to mess with the routines of veteran Cy Young contenders, but so far so good.

[Nick]

In 2013 being patient at the plate worked. The goal was to get into opponent's bullpen.

 

I'm not sure that's a big deal against the good teams in 2018. Several teams pose good 1 2 3 punch to close out the games. Why would anyone want to get to Kimbrel as an example?

 

Our record was 76-19 when tied or lead after 4 innings. It really is about scoring 1st.

[mvp 78]

I think this one may have the most impact:

 

Chris Sale and David Price looked at each other and smiled when Cora first suggested they do less work between starts and slow down their spring training build-ups to be more rested later in the year. The starting pitchers loved the routine so much that the relievers eventually began scaling back too. It’s a gamble to mess with the routines of veteran Cy Young contenders, but so far so good.

 

To me, the biggest impact could be:

 

2. Players are buying into the aggressiveness

 

The Red Sox had the eighth-most walks in the majors last year but have the ninth-least walks this spring. They were above league-average in homers after ranking last in the league last year. Beyond the numbers, Cora’s philosophy to be more aggressive has anecdotally proven effective for Mookie Betts (.340) and Andrew Benintendi (.386) who have been supportive of the idea. Stylistically, this offense is going to look different than it did a year ago.

 

The offense was a big let down last year. If they can improve on that, it will pay huge dividends. I'm not sure the starting pitching can be better than they were last year.

[moonslav59]

To me, the biggest impact could be:

 

2. Players are buying into the aggressiveness

 

The Red Sox had the eighth-most walks in the majors last year but have the ninth-least walks this spring. They were above league-average in homers after ranking last in the league last year. Beyond the numbers, Cora’s philosophy to be more aggressive has anecdotally proven effective for Mookie Betts (.340) and Andrew Benintendi (.386) who have been supportive of the idea. Stylistically, this offense is going to look different than it did a year ago.

 

The offense was a big let down last year. If they can improve on that, it will pay huge dividends. I'm not sure the starting pitching can be better than they were last year.

 

That is a big one, and I love that change in approach.

[Kimmi]

This would comport with the other Cora-ism that he likes to use his bench. JBJ practically invented the slump.

 

I think we are going to see our starters get a lot more off days than we're used to seeing them get.

 

We'll see if that ends up being a good thing or not.