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Posted
MADSTORK, there is absolutely no way the sox will be big players in the 2019 FA frenzy aside from trying to sign their own players. Lets look at committed salaries for 2019

David Price $31 mil

Rick Porcello $21.125 mil

Pablo Sandoval $18.6 mil

Dustin Pedroia $13.75 mil

Chris Sale $8.2 mil (for AAV purposes)

Mitch Moreland $6.5 mil

 

That's $100 mil tied up right there in those 6 players

 

Lets look at your FA's

Craig Kimbrel

Drew Pomeranz

Joe Kelly

 

2019 is the final year of:

Chris Sale

Xander Bogaerts

 

 

Arb figures for 2019 figure to be massive (assuming reasonable 2018s)

Bogaerts figures to be around $12 mil

Betts figures to be around $14 mil

Bradley figures to be around $10 mil

 

That takes you up to $140 mil or thereabouts. That doesn't even begin to touch the other pen guys who will be arb eligible. It doesn't take into account your catchers. It also doesn't take into account an addition from this year (a la JD Martinez). It also doesn't take into account either re-signing or replacing Pomeranz and Kimbrel, which aint gonna be easy. You figure if the sox just keep the band together, they will be hitting right up against the upper limit of the lux tax penalties and that's just keeping the 2018 band together never mind saving for re-signing Sale and Betts. Long story short, planning for next year's FA market is a fools errand. Enjoy 2018

 

Sale will be on an option year, so the AVV of $8.2M is not correct. It's $12.5m this year and $13.5M next year.

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Posted
I thought option years get added back into the contract as a whole and the AAV is dropped down?

 

No. The buy out is figured in, because that is all that is guaranteed. The option year is the AVV minus the buyout that was counted previously, so actually Sale's luxury cost would be ...

 

$12.5M - $1M buyout- $11.5 in 2018 and $12.5 in 2019 ($13.5M -$1M). Maybe the $1M buyout for 2019 counts on 2018.

Posted
MADSTORK, there is absolutely no way the sox will be big players in the 2019 FA frenzy aside from trying to sign their own players. Lets look at committed salaries for 2019

David Price $31 mil

Rick Porcello $21.125 mil

Pablo Sandoval $18.6 mil

Dustin Pedroia $13.75 mil

Chris Sale $8.2 mil (for AAV purposes)

Mitch Moreland $6.5 mil

 

That's $100 mil tied up right there in those 6 players

 

Lets look at your FA's

Craig Kimbrel

Drew Pomeranz

Joe Kelly

 

2019 is the final year of:

Chris Sale

Xander Bogaerts

 

 

Arb figures for 2019 figure to be massive (assuming reasonable 2018s)

Bogaerts figures to be around $12 mil

Betts figures to be around $14 mil

Bradley figures to be around $10 mil

 

That takes you up to $140 mil or thereabouts. That doesn't even begin to touch the other pen guys who will be arb eligible. It doesn't take into account your catchers. It also doesn't take into account an addition from this year (a la JD Martinez). It also doesn't take into account either re-signing or replacing Pomeranz and Kimbrel, which aint gonna be easy. You figure if the sox just keep the band together, they will be hitting right up against the upper limit of the lux tax penalties and that's just keeping the 2018 band together never mind saving for re-signing Sale and Betts. Long story short, planning for next year's FA market is a fools errand. Enjoy 2018

 

 

 

Price can opt out after 18 I believe? I don't see him staying in Boston unless he gets injured.

Kelly Bust, trade or release

Porcello trade if throwing well now or at the deadline

Kimbrell is a coin flip relievers can fall pretty fast..

 

Over the luxury tax for Harper Kershaw or whomever? Absolutely !

Posted
Mitchy 2-Bags is back, eh? Did DD call up Farrell before making this deal?

 

If Mitchy bats clean-up, we'll know JF is the puppet master.

Posted
The $22 million that Hanley Ramirez is owed in 2018 is a sunken cost.

 

I was responding to Original Post that said Hanley's contract was a sunken cost. I replied only 2018 was.

 

My whole point was by signing Moreland, Sox may actually save $9M. ($22M in 2019 for Hanley less $13M for Moreland)

Posted
Loved that we resigned him. More bang for your buck on these kinds of deals. Also it's contract that could be moved.

 

More I think about it, I like the signing, especially if we follow up with signing Martinez.

 

We get Hanley for 1 year (assuming he is primarily platooned and 2019 is not vested), Moreland for 2 years and save $9M to boot. It's a good deal.

Posted
Price can opt out after 18 I believe? I don't see him staying in Boston unless he gets injured.

Kelly Bust, trade or release

Porcello trade if throwing well now or at the deadline

Kimbrell is a coin flip relievers can fall pretty fast..

 

Over the luxury tax for Harper Kershaw or whomever? Absolutely !

 

Without Kimbrel last year, you were a WC club. All those years during the Yankee dynasty when the Yanks outperformed their pythag, they had one common theme, an elite closer. Kimbrel is the best in the game. If he repeats 2017, then there’s no way he walks. And if he does, you’re screwed. You’ve got literally no internal replacement capable of locking down the late innings.

 

Price isn’t opting out. He’s got a deal that right now still pays him elite market rate. His elbow issue and his 2016 season will dog him. I guess he could opt out if he goes 20-5 with a 3.20ERA, but otherwise I think you’re stuck with him. And the interesting thing is, if Price does do that, then you’re going to want him to opt in!

 

Porcello can be dumped, but at what cost? It’s the same conundrum as Price. If Porcello returns to 2106 glory or even to his tigers days, you won’t want to move him. If he continues to be a homer prone innings eater, you’ll have to eat some cash to move him. Eating cash counts towards your lux tax

Posted
I kind of like it. Nice, short contract, and Moreland gives us insurance for Hanley in case he cannot get healthy.

 

Yup, a two year deal for a guy that hit 22 hrs with a broken toe is a good deal.

Better than throwing tons of money at Santana or Hosmer.

Posted
Thank god we brought him back. You can never have enough #8 hitters in the lineup. John Farrell once said we had 4 aces in the rotation, well.....weve topped that, we have 8 players in the lineup that should be hitting 8th!
Posted
It doesn't make sense, though. You're not dealing Hanley as he has literally no value. You're not platooning Hanley and JD. Moving Moreland to 1b secures Hanley in the DH spot. You don't platoon Hanley and Moreland as Moreland is clearly the best defensive option. The only way you get Moreland and JD is if you fit JD into the OF.

 

Hanley's contract is not vesting this year. He's either going to be waived or will hit the phantom DL.

Posted
Forcing Hanley back into a 1b role might not be in your best interest either. But it might end up being the job going forward. That being said, JD has made inklings over the past few weeks that he wants to play the OF. Right now, the sox don't have an opening. This doesn't change that

 

The only reason he'd say that is because he wants to get more people involved in the bidding. If he was a decent OF, he might be getting more traction. However, his glove is so bad that he's a DH only.

Posted
Thank god we brought him back. You can never have enough #8 hitters in the lineup. John Farrell once said we had 4 aces in the rotation, well.....weve topped that, we have 8 players in the lineup that should be hitting 8th!

 

When he wasn't dealing with a broken toe, his numbers were much better than you let on.

 

He had a better OPS than Xander, JBJ, Hanley and Vazquez.

 

ALSO, IT WAS FIVE ACES YOU GOOBER...

Posted
So basically we’re fielding the same offense and expecting a different result. How is this not insane?

 

They are going to sign another masher.

Posted
The only reason he'd say that is because he wants to get more people involved in the bidding. If he was a decent OF, he might be getting more traction. However, his glove is so bad that he's a DH only.

 

This still begs the question though, where does Hanley and his 20+ million dollar contract play? You mentioned Martinez and his awful glove, but he is no match to Hanley. Hanley cant play 1B, and doesnt want to play 1B and he was a disaster in LF. Are we really going to add another player who is a liability in the field? Combine that with the 20 errors that Devers will make this year.........The Mooreland signing could potentially screw us now that JD Martinez sees that there is a logjam. He may decide its not worth the headache.

 

I think the fact that they havent moved anyone to make room, and instead congested the situation even worse really hurts us.

Posted
This still begs the question though, where does Hanley and his 20+ million dollar contract play? You mentioned Martinez and his awful glove, but he is no match to Hanley. Hanley cant play 1B, and doesnt want to play 1B and he was a disaster in LF. Are we really going to add another player who is a liability in the field? Combine that with the 20 errors that Devers will make this year.........The Mooreland signing could potentially screw us now that JD Martinez sees that there is a logjam. He may decide its not worth the headache.

 

I think the fact that they havent moved anyone to make room, and instead congested the situation even worse really hurts us.

 

Phantom DL or waived in ST.

Posted
This still begs the question though, where does Hanley and his 20+ million dollar contract play? You mentioned Martinez and his awful glove, but he is no match to Hanley. Hanley cant play 1B, and doesnt want to play 1B and he was a disaster in LF. Are we really going to add another player who is a liability in the field? Combine that with the 20 errors that Devers will make this year.........The Mooreland signing could potentially screw us now that JD Martinez sees that there is a logjam. He may decide its not worth the headache.

 

I think the fact that they havent moved anyone to make room, and instead congested the situation even worse really hurts us.

 

Go to Hell. Your take is bad and you should feel bad.

Posted
Go to Hell. Your take is bad and you should feel bad.

 

HAHA, 2 separate replies to the same post!

 

Im serious! He is going to go on the phantom DL for 162 games at 20+ Million??

 

.....and, I love the kid...but if he is given the opportunity to play at 3B everyday, he will make 20 errors. He made 14 in 56 games this year. We can make a PM private wager if you like. :o

Posted
Im serious! He is going to go on the phantom DL for 162 games at 20+ Million??

 

His contract is not vesting. He'll play part of the year at best. My guess is he plays less than half the season. Considering all of his shoulder issues, I would be shocked if he didn't hit the 60 day DL early in the spring.

Posted
.....and, I love the kid...but if he is given the opportunity to play at 3B everyday, he will make 20 errors. He made 14 in 56 games this year. We can make a PM private wager if you like. :o

 

I would never make a private wager with someone who disappears from the board for years at a time.

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