Fire alex cora

[notin]

Yes, if that rookie gets a hit in that game down 10-0, and it saved him from being demoted and possible never getting to play in the bigs again, it might have been more clutch than Papi's HR.

 

But those are never the clutch hits fans talk about..,

[notin]

If you're going to discuss clutch as a real thing you should be using real players and making a case.

 

I tend to go with postseason numbers because, as notin said, they're easy to obtain.

 

And if I had to pick one player to try to make a case with, I'd go with Schilling.

 

Schilling, Morris, Ortiz.

 

They’re usually the big names for clutch. But to me, they were all players who were great all the time in high leverage and low leverage.

 

For real clutch, I like Pat Tabler. Tabler was a journeyman corner INF/OF player whose career was about 4300 plate appearances with an OPS of.724. But for some reason, with the bases loaded, his OPS ballooned up to 1.198.

 

Now THAT was a hitter who excelled in key situations beyond his normal abilities...

[moonslav59]

But those are never the clutch hits fans talk about..,

 

I was joking.

[S5Dewey]

I was joking.

 

Why were you joking? That kid has been playing baseball all his life and suddenly he knows that he may be blowing his chance to be a MLB player. That's pressure... or to put it another way... "high leverage".

 

Just because a situation doesn't fit Fangraph's definition of 'high leverage' it doesn't mean that the player doesn't have a lot of pressure on him.

[Behindenemylines]

It is not Cora’s fault that the starting pitching sh$# the bed this year. Other then ERod the starting pitching was terrible or hurt.

[notin]

Why were you joking? That kid has been playing baseball all his life and suddenly he knows that he may be blowing his chance to be a MLB player. That's pressure... or to put it another way... "high leverage".

 

Just because a situation doesn't fit Fangraph's definition of 'high leverage' it doesn't mean that the player doesn't have a lot of pressure on him.

 

That’s really awesome.

 

For years even on BDC, I argued that the real “high pressure” wasn’t what people kept telling me. I kept hearing “playing in Boston” is such high pressure. Or playing in the postseason is such high pressure?

 

My argument was you always face the most pressure in the minors, because if you don’t stand out, you stay there. And that gets more and more difficult if you have a wife and kids. Anyone catch that article about the minor leaguer releasing his taxes? And revealing that each year he played he lost money?

 

But I was always told “Nope. No pressure in the minors. Only millionaires in Boston feel pressure! Because Dan Shaughnessy or Gerry Callahan might be mean to them.” (Despite half the team probably disregarding all English language media since it isn’t their first language.)

 

Yet I have thoughts like this, while others think “high pressure = Boston” and “clutch = postseason” and that I’m just a stats guy who doesn’t understand the human element...

Edited October 20, 2019 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

That’s really awesome.

 

For years even on BDC, I argued that the real “high pressure” wasn’t what people kept telling me. I kept hearing “playing in Boston” is such high pressure. Or playing in the postseason is such high pressure?

 

My argument was you always face the most pressure in the minors, because if you don’t stand out, you stay there. And that gets more and more difficult if you have a wife and kids. Anyone catch that article about the minor leaguer releasing his taxes? And revealing that each year he played he lost money?

 

But I was always told “Nope. No pressure in the minors. Only millionaires in Boston feel pressure! Because Dan Shaughnessy or Gerry Callahan might be mean to them.” (Despite half the team probably disregarding all English language media since it isn’t their first language.)

 

Yet I have thoughts like this, while others think “high pressure = Boston” and “clutch = postseason” and that I’m just a stats guy who doesn’t understand the human element...

 

My argument is that there are different kinds of pressure.

 

I think we sometimes try to simplify things too much.

[Bellhorn04]

What about the pressure on a guy just trying to hang on in the big leagues and knowing there isn't much waiting for him after his baseball career ends?

 

And guessing that one or two more 0-fers might trigger a DFA?

 

Different kinds of pressure.

[notin]

What about the pressure on a guy just trying to hang on in the big leagues and knowing there isn't much waiting for him after his baseball career ends?

 

And guessing that one or two more 0-fers might trigger a DFA?

 

Different kinds of pressure.

 

Exactly.

 

To me, THAT guy - plus the guy whose struggling to convince his wife not to leave him because she thinks he;s cheating.

 

But some guy putting on a Red Sox uniform? As the source of his pressure?

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly.

 

To me, THAT guy - plus the guy whose struggling to convince his wife not to leave him because she thinks he;s cheating.

 

But some guy putting on a Red Sox uniform? As the source of his pressure?

 

I do believe that 'bright lights' pressure is a real thing too.

 

So do the Yankees, apparently - they traded Sonny Gray because of his exorbitant ERA in Yankee Stadium.

[notin]

My argument is that there are different kinds of pressure.

 

I think we sometimes try to simplify things too much.

 

Sure there are different kinds. And they’re not all equal, either...

[notin]

I do believe that 'bright lights' pressure is a real thing too.

 

So do the Yankees, apparently - they traded Sonny Gray because of his exorbitant ERA in Yankee Stadium.

 

Sonny Gray did pitch poorly for the Yankees, and the press/etc. always said Sonny couldn’t handle the pressure. But when Sonny was on the road - pitching in front of fans who wanted him to fail - wasn’t he still a Yankee? Maybe it was Yankee Stadium itself and it’s physical dimensions that didn’t work out.

 

I think fans like to blame mental toughness a lot. It’s a Giant Killer thing...

[Kimmi]

It appears that while they may not ignore the human element they don't give it much credit either. When push comes to shove their fall-back position is numbers.

 

They give it a lot of credit, and they openly acknowledge that they cannot account for everything statistically, due to the human element.

 

That said, if statistics strongly suggest something like clutch not existing, then you're darn straight they're going with the statistics. But that is nowhere near the same thing as saying that they don't give much credit to the human element.

[Kimmi]

Absolutely true.

 

But unless we are talking about knuckleball pitchers running the bases, right?

 

Or unless we're talking about momentum...

[Kimmi]

Are you saying that momentum, clutch, and choke exist and they show up in the stats?

 

No, the lack of the existence of momentum, choke, and clutch show up in the stats.

[Kimmi]

If they show up anywhere, it’s in the stats. Hitting streaks, recent samples, high leverage.

 

The real illusion is fans saying they see these things. Everyone remembers the big hits, but most forget the outs in the same situation...

 

Confirmation bias is a very real thing.

[a700hitter]

Confirmation bias is a very real thing.

Statheads are pure. They see the human element of the game without bias.

[notin]

Statheads are pure. They see the human element of the game without bias.

 

Nothing accounts for the human element worse than a human. There’s a reason eye witness testimony is considered unreliable...

[Jack Flap]

Once again an excellent answer. I kind of hope that we all have a little stat geek as well as some old school stuff running through us. It's why I don't like labels. Much much too restrictive.

 

Great post, and I completely agree.

 

Just personally, I love stats because I like having something objective and concrete to hang my opinions on. As they say, though, the game isn't played on a computer or a spreadsheet, and any number is just a number without knowing the context around and behind it.

 

My ideal would be a harmonious marriage between newfangled statistical analysis and old-school scouting and baseball wisdom...I see no particular reason why the two need to be natural enemies.

[jad]

Nothing accounts for the human element worse than a human. There’s a reason eye witness testimony is considered unreliable...

 

Exactly!

[S5Dewey]

Nothing accounts for the human element worse than a human.

 

By all means. What we need to account for the human element is more statistics.

[a700hitter]

Nothing accounts for the human element worse than a human. There’s a reason eye witness testimony is considered unreliable...

It depends on who the witness is. I'll take an eyewitness as evidence to a murder.

[moonslav59]

It depends on who the witness is. I'll take an eyewitness as evidence to a murder.

 

You must know that often when multiple witnesses to a crime are present, they all give different accounts- sometimes wildly different.

[a700hitter]

You must know that often when multiple witnesses to a crime are present, they all give different accounts- sometimes wildly different.

And there is a very good reason why there is never an eyewitness to a mob hit.

[a700hitter]

They can usually get the details about the Id of the killer right, especially if they know the killer.

[a700hitter]

Eyewitness testimony is also excellent exculpatory evidence for providing alibis.

[S5Dewey]

Great post, and I completely agree.

 

Just personally, I love stats because I like having something objective and concrete to hang my opinions on. As they say, though, the game isn't played on a computer or a spreadsheet, and any number is just a number without knowing the context around and behind it.

 

My ideal would be a harmonious marriage between newfangled statistical analysis and old-school scouting and baseball wisdom...I see no particular reason why the two need to be natural enemies.

 

Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner!!!

[Larry Cook]

Does Cora have any authority as it relates to managing this team? Seems like the operations department is in charge of hiring his coaches for him, giving him his line up cards and telling him how to train the players in training camp.

 

Ps: we all know how badly that last one turned out this year!!!! Thanks desperate Dave!!!

[notin]

It depends on who the witness is. I'll take an eyewitness as evidence to a murder.

 

 

Too bad you don’t get to pick and choose who witnesses a murder...

[notin]

By all means. What we need to account for the human element is more statistics.

 

It’s not my fault human thinking is full of pre-conceived biases. There are entire fields of psychology dedicated to it.

 

Do you honestly think you are free from biases?