A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

... J.D. Martinez, though, remains available as the top bat on the market despite a lack of obvious suitors for his services outside of the Red Sox and D-backs. Here’s the latest chatter on the slugger…

 

Drellich tweets that he, too, hears a deal between the Sox and Martinez is near, adding that Dombrowski would not comment on the matter.. Piecoro tweets that the D-backs are also under the impression that Martinez is going to the Red Sox, and they’ll need to find a replacement for him.

The Red Sox and Martinez are now “moving close to a deal,” tweets Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. There’s nothing finalized yet, he adds, noting that details on the pact remain unclear at this time.

[moonslav59]

Saying that he and his coaching staff sucked with everyday players is just a little too extreme for me. I wish Alex Cora well and maybe they will win a game or two more but John Farrell and his coaching whether you like them or not did not suck. I shudder to think what will happen to Cora and his staff if this incredible high number of what you and a few others say under performed so dramatically last year don't show an equal amount of improvement this year. I think that it would be a good thing for everybody if this concept of extreme under performance was allowed to just kind of fade away. Maybe we will find out that last year was really closer to what Betts and Bradley really are and maybe we won't. I'm not willing to grant membership into the under performing society to any player who played through injury. Crap happens - it is a new year and the under performance drum has been beaten to death. It is now all about this year not last year or the year before. Like I said before, Alex Cora may be very successful but it won't be because he has some secret baseball formula that no one has ever seen before.

 

"sucked" was hyperbole, but our offense finsihed pretty badly last year after leading the league in runs scored by a wide margin the previous year.

[moonslav59]

Jon Morosi of MLB Network puts the guarantee at $110MM... [5 years?]

 

Martinez will earn $50MM in the first two years of the deal, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). The contract includes two opt-out chances, he adds.

 

If he opts out after $50M/2, it wouldn't be such a bad deal at all.

 

Even, if he did great, we'd have gotten out money's worth.

 

If he does poorly or under performed, he won't opt out but $60M/3 remaining is not terribly horrible either.

Edited February 19, 2018 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

I'm not arguing with your statistics and I certainly hope that all of these guys improve this year. I just don't think that it is a given that they will. I think that Betts likely falls somewhere between the high and the low if he has a good season. I don't know really what to expect out of JBJ and I doubt that anyone else does either. I expect a healthy Bogaerts to be better than last year. Holt I don't really care about and as for Beni who knows - hope for the best. Once again though signing Nunez, having Devers for a full season, hopefully signing Martinez and having a healthy Price on the mound are the players that will make the biggest differences on this team IMO. Obviously Betts once again is a key figure for us. I just think that with the four pivotal players that I mentioned for this team maybe some of the pressure to perform to career whatevers will be lessoned on the rest of the troops and as result they will be able to relax and just play the game. i hope that none of them really gives a crap about all of the predictions being made as to how everybody thinks that they will perform. Day to day - pitch by pitch - inning by inning - block out the ******** jibber jabber and just play this simple game. Don't try to make this an intellectual endeavor.

 

Obviously, I am thrilled to have JD on our team. However, I really would have liked to see what kind of improvement our offense would have made without him, because I think it would have been fairly significant.

 

Now if our offense improves, the improvement will mostly be credited to the addition of JD. And while that will certainly help, I think a fair part of the improvement would have happened anyway.

[Kimmi]

...and it's easy to look at these guys one-by-one and find legitimate reasons for a decline. Injuries and whatever.

 

Betts did better at age 22 and 23 than 24.

 

Bogey did better at 22 and 23 than 24.

 

JBJ did better at 25 and 26 than 27.

 

Holt did better at 27 and 28 than 29 (not uncommon).

 

Beni did better at age 21 than 22.

 

By themselves, it's no big deal.

 

In totality, it's a rare happening.

 

It was very unexpected that all these guys declined at once, and although many did not decline much from their 2015 numbers, they all did worse.

 

Could it be that all these guys had an outlier season or two early in their career, and really are not as good as we came to believe? Of course, it's possible, but JBJ is 27 now (peak prime), Betts is 25 (still on the upswing of age curve charts) and so is Bogey. Beni will be 23 and could be expected to improve.

 

 

You and I have been on the same page on this one all offseason.

[Kimmi]

I want to go back to leadership and pedroia for a second. There is an article on the NESN site that basically says pedroia wants others to step up and be the leaders of the team. Ok probably best for the team if that happens, don’t know who could fill that role. But that is pedrioa’s perrogative.

 

Then I read the lindy’s baseball preview issue and it has an unnamed scout talking about how pedroia owns the locker room and Cora needs to get pedroia in his corner so as to not wind up like Farrell who did not have pedroia in his corner.

 

And in my mind, the conclusion I get as that we have a totally dysfunctional locker room centered around pedrioa. I got a player who does not want to be a leader controlling the fates of the manager. This is not anyway to run a railroad. Somebody needs to step up and stop the madness.

 

What am I missing here?

 

Pedroia's point in that article was that what's best for the team is to have several leaders, not just one. He pointed to past teams where several of the guys took on leadership roles. It's not that Pedroia doesn't want to be or isn't a leader, but that he's hoping that some of the younger guys will step up and lead the team along with him.

[moonslav59]

Obviously, I am thrilled to have JD on our team. However, I really would have liked to see what kind of improvement our offense would have made without him, because I think it would have been fairly significant.

 

Now if our offense improves, the improvement will mostly be credited to the addition of JD. And while that will certainly help, I think a fair part of the improvement would have happened anyway.

 

I see your point, but if our other players improve, we'll know. (Although some will say JD's presence in the line-up made them do better.)

 

[Kimmi]

Hmm. I can't disagree but I saw an interview during the Price / Eck flare-up where Farrell said that what was going on was being handled internally.

 

If that was the case then it is not so much his failure to do something but just an example of how he was doing something that may not have been known by the press and public.

 

Who the f*** knows?

 

Onward to Cora.

 

Excellent point here. A good manager is going to handle these things internally and keep them out of the press.

 

Francona was excellent at doing that, IMO.

[Kimmi]

Jon Morosi of MLB Network puts the guarantee at $110MM... [5 years?]

 

Martinez will earn $50MM in the first two years of the deal, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). The contract includes two opt-out chances, he adds.

 

If he opts out after $50M/2, it wouldn't be such a bad deal at all.

 

Even, if he did great, we'd have gotten out money's worth.

 

If he does poorly or under performed, he won't opt out but $60M/3 remaining is not terribly horrible either.

 

As far as long term deals go, this one does not make me cringe.

 

Dombrowski got a little creative with the specifics of it.

[moonslav59]

At winter's start, I was expecting $125M/5.

 

$22M AVV is a pretty good deal for us.

[Kimmi]

I see your point, but if our other players improve, we'll know. (Although some will say JD's presence in the line-up made them do better.)

 

 

That's what I'm saying.

[oldtimer]

Obviously, I am thrilled to have JD on our team. However, I really would have liked to see what kind of improvement our offense would have made without him, because I think it would have been fairly significant.

 

Now if our offense improves, the improvement will mostly be credited to the addition of JD. And while that will certainly help, I think a fair part of the improvement would have happened anyway.

 

I expected JDM to sign this week since Hoz has now signed. He can bring a much needed power bat to the lineup but I have also believed that our change of management and coaching will have an impact on our approach to hitting and I am hoping that will lift the performance of some young players that played below par last year. Specifically, I see several players who should help

 

Benintendi has gained 10 pounds and is a year more experienced. He has had excellent swing mechanics and is likely to move forward.

Bogey took pitches down the middle and swung at pitches low and away. New coaching may go a long way to help him although he has a pattern of falling off in the second half.

Betts also didn't seem himself and while his swing mechanics looked sound to me, he still swung at a lot of balls down and away.

 

Other hitters that may do better this year are

Moreland coming off a toe injury. He is a solid ML hitter

Rameriz should be better with his shoulder now reconstructed

Pedey when he returns should be able to play without leg pain. He has had excellent hand eye coordination. Lets hope his bat speed won't drop off with his age.

 

With Nunez and Martinez coming it will be interesting to see where they play and whether any existing Sox players get traded as a result of these moves.

[Kimmi]

I expected JDM to sign this week since Hoz has now signed. He can bring a much needed power bat to the lineup but I have also believed that our change of management and coaching will have an impact on our approach to hitting and I am hoping that will lift the performance of some young players that played below par last year. Specifically, I see several players who should help

 

Benintendi has gained 10 pounds and is a year more experienced. He has had excellent swing mechanics and is likely to move forward.

Bogey took pitches down the middle and swung at pitches low and away. New coaching may go a long way to help him although he has a pattern of falling off in the second half.

Betts also didn't seem himself and while his swing mechanics looked sound to me, he still swung at a lot of balls down and away.

 

Other hitters that may do better this year are

Moreland coming off a toe injury. He is a solid ML hitter

Rameriz should be better with his shoulder now reconstructed

Pedey when he returns should be able to play without leg pain. He has had excellent hand eye coordination. Lets hope his bat speed won't drop off with his age.

 

With Nunez and Martinez coming it will be interesting to see where they play and whether any existing Sox players get traded as a result of these moves.

 

I very much agree oldtimer.

 

I think that the more aggressive hitting philosophy that Cora is bringing to the team will help a good bit. If nothing else, having a fresh voice sometimes helps.

 

The players being healthy will also help quite a bit.

[cp176]

I expected JDM to sign this week since Hoz has now signed. He can bring a much needed power bat to the lineup but I have also believed that our change of management and coaching will have an impact on our approach to hitting and I am hoping that will lift the performance of some young players that played below par last year. Specifically, I see several players who should help

 

Benintendi has gained 10 pounds and is a year more experienced. He has had excellent swing mechanics and is likely to move forward.

Bogey took pitches down the middle and swung at pitches low and away. New coaching may go a long way to help him although he has a pattern of falling off in the second half.

Betts also didn't seem himself and while his swing mechanics looked sound to me, he still swung at a lot of balls down and away.

 

Other hitters that may do better this year are

Moreland coming off a toe injury. He is a solid ML hitter

Rameriz should be better with his shoulder now reconstructed

Pedey when he returns should be able to play without leg pain. He has had excellent hand eye coordination. Lets hope his bat speed won't drop off with his age.

 

With Nunez and Martinez coming it will be interesting to see where they play and whether any existing Sox players get traded as a result of these moves.

 

Don't forget a full year of Devers as well. This really is a different team than the one that started the 2017 season.

[moonslav59]

Apparently, this is how the JD deal is constructed:

 

$25M

$25M

opt out

$22M

opt out

$19M

$19M

[moonslav59]

Don't forget a full year of Devers as well. This really is a different team than the one that started the 2017 season.

 

While JBJ is hard to project, if he can give us the offense he gave in 2015 or 2016, we'd get a big boost here as well.

[Natick to NC]

Three players on Daves bubble in my opinion ....1. Xander 2. JBJ 3.Pedey ....one two or all three could be gone after this season maybe one at the break .Xander to me is capable of so much more . Edited February 20, 2018 by Natick to NC

[moonslav59]

Three players on Daves bubble in my opinion ....1. Xander 2. JBJ 3.Pedey ....one two or all three could be gone after this season maybe one at the break .Xander to me is capable of so much more .

 

In general, you don't look to trade players capable of "so much more".

 

I could see us trading JBJ, if HRam looks strong and healthy. You basically be trading JBJ's bat for HRam's and probably getting a decent pitcher in return. (Note: I am not for trading JBJ, unless it is for someone very special.)

 

Pedey's health is an issue, but I don't see a "bubble."

 

Bogey will not be traded, even with Nunez looking for more playing time.

Just my opinions.

[oldtimer]

In general, you don't look to trade players capable of "so much more".

 

I could see us trading JBJ, if HRam looks strong and healthy. You basically be trading JBJ's bat for HRam's and probably getting a decent pitcher in return. (Note: I am not for trading JBJ, unless it is for someone very special.)

 

Pedey's health is an issue, but I don't see a "bubble."

 

Bogey will not be traded, even with Nunez looking for more playing time.

Just my opinions.

 

I agree that Bogey will not be traded at this juncture as we still need a competent SS. His hitting could return to a much higher level, especially if he gets some better coaching and takes it seriously.

My view is we trade away some of our extra utility players and possibly JBJ if a deal for a decent pitcher could be worked out. Brannen is a year away from the club provided he shows he can hit ML pitching. He is at least a hope for an up the middle outfielder in future.

 

Trying to predict a Batting Order with our talent does raise the question of who gets left out. My first attempt is as follows:

 

Betts (RF)

Beni (CF)

Nunez/Pedey (2nd)

Martinez (LF)

Devers (3rd)

Rameriz (DH)

Moreland (1st)

Vasquez ©

Bogey (SS)

 

That one example leaves JBJ out so I am certain others will see things in many other ways, but if Hanley is hitting early on it makes for a formidable lineup. The loss would be in outfield defense. This example also accounts for 11 field players including 2 catchers and DH. The question also posed by it is who are the two other utility players to keep with the 25 man roster.

[notin]

Cody Brannon is 19 and has only played rookie ball. He's more than one year away, assuming he ever makes it at all...

[notin]

So it's time again to play our least favorite game - who gets DFAd?

 

Last time it was the unforeseen Ben Taylor.

 

Toady's candidates include, but are not limited to, Bryce Brentz, Deven Marrero, Brock Holt, Blake Swihart, Brian Johnson, and Roenis Elias. Any others?

 

Holt and Elias have options.

 

My guess is Bryce Brentz. But who knows?

[moonslav59]

So it's time again to play our least favorite game - who gets DFAd?

 

Last time it was the unforeseen Ben Taylor.

 

Toady's candidates include, but are not limited to, Bryce Brentz, Deven Marrero, Brock Holt, Blake Swihart, Brian Johnson, and Roenis Elias. Any others?

 

Holt and Elias have options.

 

My guess is Bryce Brentz. But who knows?

 

Here's another choice: put Pedey on the 60 day DL, so he doesn't rush himself into a re-injury.

[moonslav59]

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-boston-red-sox/

 

This site has the Sox with 10 players in the top 200 power rankings:

 

1 Sale

18 JDM

19 Kimbrel

21 Betts

66 Beni

113 Bogey

122 Moreland

143 Nunez

167 HRam

193 JBJ

 

(JD not listed yet on this list but on the depth charts)

 

They have Leon starting in AAA with Swihart, HRam, Holt and Brentz on the bench. I guess they don't pay attention to options remaining, as they have Leon and Marrero in AAA.

Edited February 20, 2018 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

So it's time again to play our least favorite game - who gets DFAd?

 

Last time it was the unforeseen Ben Taylor.

 

Toady's candidates include, but are not limited to, Bryce Brentz, Deven Marrero, Brock Holt, Blake Swihart, Brian Johnson, and Roenis Elias. Any others?

 

Holt and Elias have options.

 

My guess is Bryce Brentz. But who knows?

 

My guess is Marrero.

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

My guess is Marrero.

 

Or not.

 

How is Brentz going to get any time, unless we trade JBJ or someone gets hurt?

 

Even if somebody gets hurt, we have JDM & Nunez to play LF over Brentz.

 

I might even prefer Swihart or Moreland in LF over BB.

 

Maybe we can trade Brentz & Johnson for a better 6th starter.

[moonslav59]

Assuming we stay under the $40m limit, here's what our tax might be....

 

Year 1 (2018): $33M over

20% tax= $6.6M

12% tax on 20-33M= $1.6M

We're at a tax of $8.2M this year.

 

Let's assume we stay at about $33M over next year:

30% tax= 9.9M

12% tax on $13M= $1.6M

Total 2019 tax: $11.5M

 

Same in 2020? Tax would be $16.5M + $1.6M= $18.1M

[notin]

Here's another choice: put Pedey on the 60 day DL, so he doesn't rush himself into a re-injury.

 

Outside the box, but certainly possible..

[notin]

 

Maybe we can trade Brentz & Johnson for a better 6th starter.

 

If Tampa couldn't find a taker for $6mill All Star Corey Dickerson, I don't think the market for Brentz is going to be so robust we can get a capable pitcher for him...

[moonslav59]

Young Sox career OPS

Betts .839

Devers .819

Beni .785

Bogey .750

JBJ .732

 

Some young Sox splits vs RHPs/LHPs:

vs RHPs

 

Beni .838

Betts: .833

Devers .743 (only 183 PAs)

JBJ .736

Bogey .726

 

vs LHPs:

Devers 1.074 (57 PAs)

Betts .859

Bogey .826

JBJ .723

Beni .583 (needs to be watched closely)

 

If Beni turns into a platoon LF'er, it could get JD some more time in the OF and Nunez & HRam more time at DH.

 

I can, at least, see us flipping Bogey and Beni in the order vs RHPs and LHPs.

 

Maybe Beni bats 2nd vs RHP and 6th vs LHPs, and Bogey bats 2ns vs LHPs and 6th vs RHPs.

[moonslav59]

.921 vs LHPs

.836 vs RHPs

 

Almost identical 1st half vs 2nd half.

 

Last year, he had an awesome .985 OPS vs RHPs, but his split vs LHPs was off-the-charts at 1.356

 

2017 HRs per 650 PAs?

 

70 vs LHPs (+64 2B+3B) 128 RBI

56 vs RHPs (+30 2B+3B) 171 RBI