A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Kimmi]

I think you are being overly sensitive. I don't see the "widespread under performance". You see it. I assume that your ideas are formed in your brain/mind. LOL!!

 

I'm not being overly sensitive. I take it as a compliment that you are unable to debate me without throwing in the condescending remarks. It shows a lack of confidence on your part when you have to resort to such tactics.

 

I'm just pointing out your hypocrisy.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, some of the declines could be traced to injury. But even something like the stat I posted about taking first pitches down the middle should be cause for alarm. That type of approach is probably contributing to the underperformance of players, and is that not a coaching issue?

 

Yes, that absolutely could be a coaching issue.

 

I think there are definitely reasons to be optimistic that we'll see better offense in 2018.

[Kimmi]

You are all looking at 2017 as a year of the decline. I think you should probably look at 2016 as the year of the rise. Guys with career high WAR's in 2016: Bogaerts, Bradley Jr., Betts, Leon. Hanley put up his best WAR as a Red Sox in 2016 sandwiched between 2 negatives. Pedey had his best WAR since 2011. And this was all centered around Ortiz having one of the best send-off seasons ever. You remove Ortiz, guys come back down to prior levels or performance and now your team isn't all it was cracked up to be. I still think you need more offense, but I don't know if DD shares that sentiment. I think you might be done unless JD comes back to Boston's offer. I wonder if JD ends up going back to Arizona and signs a Cespedes type deal, shorter term (3 years) with an opt out after year 1.

 

Players who are entering their prime should be on the rise, no?

[Kimmi]

Maybe some of the declines had to do with other teams taking advantage of our passive hitting philosophy - taking all those first pitch strikes.

 

Yes. I should have read this post before I made my post to you.

[Kimmi]

Self-awareness has never been your strongest suit.

 

One of the reasons I like you Hitch. You get it.

[cp176]

Pedroia referenced it in his press conference yesterday, response to a question about Mookie's and Xander's comments that last season wasn't always fun:

 

“I just think, for whatever reason, I think our overall outlook was really result-oriented that day. I think that can wear on you as an everyday player and as a pitcher because baseball is so hard, you fail seven out of 10 times, you’re really good. And I think if you’re really result-oriented that day the day you can go home and get a good night’s rest is if your team wins by 10 and you go 4-for-4 with four home runs and that’s not realistic.

 

“So instead of looking at the big picture, you show up you do your work, you prepare to beat the other pitcher, you prepare defensively and over the course of the year it’s a process. You’re going to have your 0-for-10s, your 0-for-15s, your 0-for-20s but if you prepare the right way and stick to the plan you’re going to be fine and I think that gives your mind ease. If I put in the work it’s going to be right there. And your teammates see you put in the work, they know it’s going to be there so there’s less stress, there’s less, technically, panic. You know if you put the work in and do the right things you’ll be successful. It’ll be there in the end.

 

“So I think we kind of went away from that and it was more ‘hey what are our results today? We’ve got to do good today,’ Bogey’s got to get four hits today. Mookie’s got to live up to huge expectations instead of being who you are and that’s especially in this environment that’s how you have to be. You have to understand you’re going to be bad and you’re going to be great. So just keep working and stay with what makes you get to that point and you’ll be fine.”

 

This I agree with very much. I'm not sure where the fault lies if anyone is even at fault. I think that living in an age of information overload is as much a problem as anything. The guts of the game have not changed. I hope that they can block out all of the distractions which of course includes social media.

[cp176]

Players who are entering their prime should be on the rise, no?

 

I think the key word here is should.

[a700hitter]

Maybe some of the declines had to do with other teams taking advantage of our passive hitting philosophy - taking all those first pitch strikes.

If we want to look for a reason besides injuries, the biggest one I can see is that a 38 HRs and 1.000 OPS was removed from the lineup. That had a cascading effect imo. Mitch Moreland was not going to fill that giant hole.

[a700hitter]

I'm not being overly sensitive. I take it as a compliment that you are unable to debate me without throwing in the condescending remarks. It shows a lack of confidence on your part when you have to resort to such tactics.

 

I'm just pointing out your hypocrisy.

You are very thin skinned. I said nothing condescending to you.

[a700hitter]

Self-awareness has never been your strongest suit.

Wow, you went through the trouble of quoting me 4 times. Thank you.

[a700hitter]

One more thing...

 

For argument's sake, least assume "career norm"= career OPS before 2017 vs 2017 OPS

 

Career Player (age) 2017

 

.861 HRam (32) .750 massive decline, even for a playre at this age

.811 Pedey (32) .760 pretty steep decline for this age

.748 Young (32) .709 pretty significant decline

(All-in-all, this group declined by more than their age might suggest the do.)

 

.790 Pablo (29) .622 massive decline

.705 Holt (28) .548 massive decline

.681 Leon (27) .644 significant deecline

(Again, for this age group, all excuses aside- a pretty significant decline.)

 

.749 Bogey (23) .746 close to norm

.855 Betts (23) .803 significant decline

.726 JBJ (26) .726 at norm [awful start to early career affected "career norm"]

.602 Vaz (25) .735 massive increase [only 385 PAs before 2017]

(One would not expect an overall career norm or worse years for this age group. You expect improvement.)

 

We got no met expectations for any age group.

Performances go up and down during a career --even during prime years. Look at a guy like Porcello. He is an extreme example, but many guys experience ups and downs especially early in their careers. I find it hard to wring my hands about a player under performing if he performs to his career norms. Of course you need enough data to establish a career norm. We don't have that on Benintendi yet. We really don't know what he will be yet. We have 2000 PAs on Bradley, and although he had a terrible start to his career, he might have a career season that evens that out. I can see that his career norm will probably increase for a few years and last year was an inexplicable off year for him. Betts also has over 200 PAs. His career norms may be skewed upward by his 2016 performance. It is possible that 2016 is his career year. If so, 2017 isn't that far off his career norm, but it is an under performing year due to injury. HanRam has had .700 OPS seasons in 6 of the last 9 seasons. That is starting to become his norm. At what point does a .750 OPS season no longer become under performance for him. I think 6 out of 9 times is enough. I can't see calling Leon's 2017 an underperformance. His 2016 performance will end up being far and a way his career season. 2017 will be much closer to his norm.

[moonslav59]

Performances go up and down during a career --even during prime years. Look at a guy like Porcello. He is an extreme example, but many guys experience ups and downs especially early in their careers. I find it hard to wring my hands about a player under performing if he performs to his career norms. Of course you need enough data to establish a career norm. We don't have that on Benintendi yet. We really don't know what he will be yet. We have 2000 PAs on Bradley, and although he had a terrible start to his career, he might have a career season that evens that out. I can see that his career norm will probably increase for a few years and last year was an inexplicable off year for him. Betts also has over 200 PAs. His career norms may be skewed upward by his 2016 performance. It is possible that 2016 is his career year. If so, 2017 isn't that far off his career norm, but it is an under performing year due to injury. HanRam has had .700 OPS seasons in 6 of the last 9 seasons. That is starting to become his norm. At what point does a .750 OPS season no longer become under performance for him. I think 6 out of 9 times is enough. I can't see calling Leon's 2017 an underperformance. His 2016 performance will end up being far and a way his career season. 2017 will be much closer to his norm.

 

Of course, players go up and down. Even players getting close to prime have dips in performance.

 

Of course, injuries played a big role in the reasons for some of the dips.

 

It's still rare for just about every significant returning player to all decline in the same year.

 

Even the case of Leon, who everyone expected to decline, ended up 40 points below his career average from before 2016. He failed to meet his career norm that did not even include his big 2016 season.

 

Everyone all at once is very rare.

 

I remember some saying the 2013 season was a rare confluence of almost everyone having career best seasons or above norm seasons all at once. That season's numbers pale in comparison to 2017's massive and widespread decline. 8 out of 8. 9 out of 10. The 2013 season was something like 6 or 7 out of 10 had better years.

 

[a700hitter]

Of course, players go up and down. Even players getting close to prime have dips in performance.

 

Of course, injuries played a big role in the reasons for some of the dips.

 

It's still rare for just about every significant returning player to all decline in the same year.

 

Even the case of Leon, who everyone expected to decline, ended up 40 points below his career average from before 2016. He failed to meet his career norm that did not even include his big 2016 season.

 

Everyone all at once is very rare.

 

I remember some saying the 2013 season was a rare confluence of almost everyone having career best seasons or above norm seasons all at once. That season's numbers pale in comparison to 2017's massive and widespread decline. 8 out of 8. 9 out of 10. The 2013 season was something like 6 or 7 out of 10 had better years.

 

Hopefully Nunez is fully healthy, because he was big over performer for us in 2017, and we will have a full year of Devers. Moreland's toe should be healed, but I don't expect to much upside from him as he outperformed his career norms in 2017. While I hope that Betts, Bradley, and Bogaerts have breakout comeback seasons, I am not expecting it, especially not from Bradley and Bogaerts. I just don't think that Bradley and Bogaerts are all that good. I am more hopeful that Benintendi will have a breakout season, because we still don't know what his ceiling is. Is it reasonable for us to expect HanRam to stay injury free and put up an .850 OPS at this stage of his career. I think that is unlikely. Our catchers are meh offensively. Without obtaining a big bat, I see this as the same type of offense as last year, and only big years from Benintendi and Devers can push it to the next level.

[Bellhorn04]

I think we really need to sign JDM. I think with him and a full season of Devers and with more AB's from Nunez we would have a very strong offense.

[moonslav59]

Hopefully Nunez is fully healthy, because he was big over performer for us in 2017, and we will have a full year of Devers. Moreland's toe should be healed, but I don't expect to much upside from him as he outperformed his career norms in 2017. While I hope that Betts, Bradley, and Bogaerts have breakout comeback seasons, I am not expecting it, especially not from Bradley and Bogaerts. I just don't think that Bradley and Bogaerts are all that good. I am more hopeful that Benintendi will have a breakout season, because we still don't know what his ceiling is. Is it reasonable for us to expect HanRam to stay injury free and put up an .850 OPS at this stage of his career. I think that is unlikely. Our catchers are meh offensively. Without obtaining a big bat, I see this as the same type of offense as last year, and only big years from Benintendi and Devers can push it to the next level.

 

Fair enough.

 

I would bet, if I was a betting man, that at least one from Bogey & JBJ have a significantly better 2018 than 2017.

 

I think Betts does better than 2017 but maybe not as well as 2016.

 

I am also encouraged by getting more PAs from Nunez and Devers (at the expense of Pablo, Holt, Rutledge, Marrero...)

 

Adding JDM would be a big plus, as we'd finally have our clean-up hitter. That allows the rest of our players to fill slots they are better suited for hitting.

 

I expect Vaz to do a little worse.

 

HRam and Pedey are wild cards.

 

Moreland is what he is.

 

Beni could be the key. He could have a huge year. He could be about the same.

 

I've hopeful that our offense will get better, but adding JDM would turn my optimism into certainty.

[harmony]

One columnist expects a bounce-back from right-hander Rick Porcello:

 

https://thesporttank.com/2018/02/15/rick-porcello-redemption-tour-part-two/

[cp176]

Performances go up and down during a career --even during prime years. Look at a guy like Porcello. He is an extreme example, but many guys experience ups and downs especially early in their careers. I find it hard to wring my hands about a player under performing if he performs to his career norms. Of course you need enough data to establish a career norm. We don't have that on Benintendi yet. We really don't know what he will be yet. We have 2000 PAs on Bradley, and although he had a terrible start to his career, he might have a career season that evens that out. I can see that his career norm will probably increase for a few years and last year was an inexplicable off year for him. Betts also has over 200 PAs. His career norms may be skewed upward by his 2016 performance. It is possible that 2016 is his career year. If so, 2017 isn't that far off his career norm, but it is an under performing year due to injury. HanRam has had .700 OPS seasons in 6 of the last 9 seasons. That is starting to become his norm. At what point does a .750 OPS season no longer become under performance for him. I think 6 out of 9 times is enough. I can't see calling Leon's 2017 an underperformance. His 2016 performance will end up being far and a way his career season. 2017 will be much closer to his norm.

 

This is pretty much the way it worked, will work, and has always worked. One thing more for me is that I expect a very good year out of Price. If he stays healthy, having Sale and Price leading that staff is what we have all expected should and would happen.

[cp176]

One columnist expects a bounce-back from right-hander Rick Porcello:

 

https://thesporttank.com/2018/02/15/rick-porcello-redemption-tour-part-two/

 

Porcello's bounce back should make him an effective number 3 starter.

[cp176]

I think we really need to sign JDM. I think with him and a full season of Devers and with more AB's from Nunez we would have a very strong offense.

 

With a full year of Nunez, Devers, and possibly Martinez we could have an offense that finally looks pretty good.

[Kimmi]

I think the key word here is should.

 

'Should' is the key word. And since so many of them took a step backward last year, I think it's reasonable to expect them to take a step forward this year. They are still approaching their prime.

[Kimmi]

Fair enough.

 

I would bet, if I was a betting man, that at least one from Bogey & JBJ have a significantly better 2018 than 2017.

 

I think Betts does better than 2017 but maybe not as well as 2016.

 

I am also encouraged by getting more PAs from Nunez and Devers (at the expense of Pablo, Holt, Rutledge, Marrero...)

 

Adding JDM would be a big plus, as we'd finally have our clean-up hitter. That allows the rest of our players to fill slots they are better suited for hitting.

 

I expect Vaz to do a little worse.

 

HRam and Pedey are wild cards.

 

Moreland is what he is.

 

Beni could be the key. He could have a huge year. He could be about the same.

 

I've hopeful that our offense will get better, but adding JDM would turn my optimism into certainty.

 

I don't think anyone is expecting breakout or career seasons from all of these guys. I'm not even expecting Mookie to repeat his 2016 season. But it is very reasonable to expect that most of the guys improve over what they did last season.

[notin]

If Bogaerts is healthy, I could see a breakout.

 

I may need to dust off the WAPM and see...

[Kimmi]

If Bogaerts is healthy, I could see a breakout.

 

I may need to dust off the WAPM and see...

 

Break out the WAPM!

 

Bogaerts could indeed have a breakout. Mookie could have another MVP type season. It's not that far fetched.

[a700hitter]

If Bogaerts is healthy, I could see a breakout.

 

I may need to dust off the WAPM and see...

XB provides good offense for a SS, but I don't think he has the bat speed or a consistent plate approach for him to have a breakout season. The slider is his krypronite. He is helpless against it unless he goes into slap mode, in which case he has no power at all. In order to drive the ball, he has guess right on a fastball. I have never seen a player with such completely different swings.

[notin]

Break out the WAPM!

 

Bogaerts could indeed have a breakout.

 

The WAPM has spoken!

 

A better season, albeit not a freakish breakout.

 

.276/.357/.447 (.804 OPS) with 18 HRs for Bogaerts.

 

(Worth pointing out the WAPM does better for mid season hot streaks.)

 

 

Steamer is projecting .290/.353/.445 with 16HRs. I don't like it when I'm that close to Steamer...

[jacksonianmarch]

Players who are entering their prime should be on the rise, no?

 

What if 2016 was the rise and 2017 is more who they will be going forward?

[harmony]

The WAPM has spoken!

 

A better season, albeit not a freakish breakout.

 

.276/.357/.447 (.804 OPS) with 18 HRs for Bogaerts.

 

(Worth pointing out the WAPM does better for mid season hot streaks.)

 

 

Steamer is projecting .290/.353/.445 with 16HRs. I don't like it when I'm that close to Steamer...

Marcel projects Xander Bogaerts at .292/.354/.433/.786 with 13 home runs in 589 plate appearances:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml

 

ZiPS projects Bogaerts at .285/.347/.434/.781 with 16 home runs in 673 plate appearances:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

[Bellhorn04]

What if 2016 was the rise and 2017 is more who they will be going forward?

 

The normal age curve indicates they should still be rising a little, doesn't it?

 

That's all you can really look at, is norms.

 

The best thing is to look at their 2018 projections. I'm not a big believer in the accuracy of the projections myself, but they are the most scientific thing we have.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bell, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. I don't think Betts is going to be top 2 in MVP voting every year. I don't anticipate JBJ is a 5 WAR player going forward. But they are capable of more than what they did in 2017

[moonslav59]

What if 2016 was the rise and 2017 is more who they will be going forward?

 

Certainly could be the case, but the Sox players who had not reached prime had two previous seasons better than 2017. That is not a common occurrence for all 3 pre-prime players to do worse than their previous two seasons....maybe one, maybe two, but not all three.