A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Kimmi]

Anyone agreeing in 2018 to pay a ballplayer who will be 37 years old in 6 years nearly 30 million in that 6th year is fiscally irresponsible.

 

Amen to that.

[Kimmi]

Sox need to score 50 more runs next season from season past, if Pitching is about the same. That's it. Guys on team can do that. Don't need to spend big cash for that. See how Hanley's surgery works out.

 

I agree that the guys we currently have will improve upon last season. I would still like to sign JD, but if he's going to continue to insist on unrealistic contract terms, Dombrowski should just move on. I do not want this dragging out until spring training.

[moonslav59]

This is why I think DD should start sending smoke signals that he is interested in other bats.

 

He may be doing taht already.

 

I'm sure he has put fliers out to at least a couple other big named FAs. This may be one reason nobody else is signing. Once JD signs, the next guy may get a fresh and maybe a little more desperate bidder.

[moonslav59]

Huh! Both the change in the way the game is being played i.e more emphasis on relief pitching along with a more aggressive approach toward hitting are interconnected as is the projection of future value. To say one is changing more rapidly than the other is a distinction without a difference since there is a direct correlation between the two coincident to the arrival of the new breed of younger more data driven baseball executives.

 

I don't see it that way.

[notin]

If that happened, we'd know about it. s***, if all the "Gerald Green is at Logan" sightings on Twitter are any indication, I don't think they'd be able to sneak LoMo or Duda through security.

 

To be fair, Gerald Green is like 6'8". Sneaking anywhere is not his forte.

 

I could see getting LoMo through. He doesn't stand out nearly as much as Green...

[notin]

Huh! Both the change in the way the game is being played i.e more emphasis on relief pitching along with a more aggressive approach toward hitting are interconnected as is the projection of future value. To say one is changing more rapidly than the other is a distinction without a difference since there is a direct correlation between the two coincident to the arrival of the new breed of younger more data driven baseball executives.

 

The data driven executives are more proof of the point that the way the game is evaluated is rapidly changing.

 

15 years ago, using OBP instead of batting average was a shocking turn of events. Since then we have gone through WARP, Win Shares, WAR, and other statistical methods and dozens of new stats. Anything from xFIP to wOBA.

 

How has the game itself changed in the past 15 years? Fewer IP from starters? More specialization players? Anythng else significant?

[moonslav59]

The data driven executives are more proof of the point that the way the game is evaluated is rapidly changing.

 

15 years ago, using OBP instead of batting average was a shocking turn of events. Since then we have gone through WARP, Win Shares, WAR, and other statistical methods and dozens of new stats. Anything from xFIP to wOBA.

 

How has the game itself changed in the past 15 years? Fewer IP from starters? More specialization players? Anythng else significant?

 

Light years difference.

 

Agreed.

[Larry Cook]

Is the 6.1 million for Bradley an overpay by dave?

[moonslav59]

Is the 6.1 million for Bradley an overpay by dave?

 

It's close to arb estimates.

 

Every GM in MLB would pay that.

[Spudboy]

Is the 6.1 million for Bradley an overpay by dave?

 

It's close to arb estimates.

 

Every GM in MLB would pay that.

 

I think it's a bargain for his level of defense and moderate + offense.

 

Of course I am sure that someone will "disprove" my opinion with all types of WAR s***.

 

I also think the Sox are going to lose their Arb tussle with Betts.

 

I don't give a s*** what Arb estimates or WAR say, that kid is worth 10.5 mil all day long.

 

Why is Kelly worth 4 mil?

[harmony]

I think it's a bargain for his level of defense and moderate + offense.

 

Of course I am sure that someone will "disprove" my opinion with all types of WAR s***.

 

I also think the Sox are going to lose their Arb tussle with Betts.

 

I don't give a s*** what Arb estimates or WAR say, that kid is worth 10.5 mil all day long.

 

Why is Kelly worth 4 mil?

Jackie Bradley has posted 9.8 fWAR, valued at $77.9 million, over the past three seasons.

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Bradley with 2018 WAR of 3.2 in 630 plate appearances and 3.0 in 571 plate appearances.

 

Bradley remains a bargain at a 2018 salary of $6.1 million.

 

Mookie Betts has posted 18.2 fWAR, valued at $145.3 million, over the past three seasons.

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Betts with a 2018 WAR of 5.6 in 630 plate appearances and 5.7 in 653 plate appearances.

 

Betts will remain a bargain.

[notin]

I think it's a bargain for his level of defense and moderate + offense.

 

Of course I am sure that someone will "disprove" my opinion with all types of WAR s***.

 

I also think the Sox are going to lose their Arb tussle with Betts.

 

I don't give a s*** what Arb estimates or WAR say, that kid is worth 10.5 mil all day long.

 

Why is Kelly worth 4 mil?

 

 

I think WAR actually proves your point about Bradley. Easily worth it.

 

I think the contracts that have gone to middle relief/set up guys like Juan Nicasio prove Kelly is worth the deal he got, too...

[mvp 78]

I think it's a bargain for his level of defense and moderate + offense.

 

Of course I am sure that someone will "disprove" my opinion with all types of WAR s***.

 

I also think the Sox are going to lose their Arb tussle with Betts.

 

I don't give a s*** what Arb estimates or WAR say, that kid is worth 10.5 mil all day long.

 

Why is Kelly worth 4 mil?

 

That arb figure is crazy for his service time. He probably won’t get 10.5. He deserves it tho.

[Hitch]

I think it's a bargain for his level of defense and moderate + offense.

 

Of course I am sure that someone will "disprove" my opinion with all types of WAR s***.

 

I also think the Sox are going to lose their Arb tussle with Betts.

 

I don't give a s*** what Arb estimates or WAR say, that kid is worth 10.5 mil all day long.

 

Why is Kelly worth 4 mil?

 

Why so defensive? WAR backs up the obvious conclusion that the money for Bradley is well worth it.

[notin]

That arb figure is crazy for his service time. He probably won’t get 10.5. He deserves it tho.

 

If Bradley got $6mill, Betts could easily get the $10.5mill. At this point, it's either $10.5mill or $7.75mill...

[moonslav59]

I think it's a bargain for his level of defense and moderate + offense.

 

Of course I am sure that someone will "disprove" my opinion with all types of WAR s***.

 

I also think the Sox are going to lose their Arb tussle with Betts.

 

I don't give a s*** what Arb estimates or WAR say, that kid is worth 10.5 mil all day long.

 

Why is Kelly worth 4 mil?

 

Almost all arbs are worth their salaries or they would have been non tendered before the arb.

 

The whole system seems flawed in some ways as things like what arb year is the player in seems to matter more than the performance level of the player in the previous season or two.

 

I agree that JBJ is worth $10M on the open market, but the arb process is far from "open".

 

The reason Mookie's arb number seems low compared to JBJ's is that Mookie's is a year one arb (out of 3). JBJ's is year 2 (out of 4). Kelly's was his final arb year, which normally is much closer to "free market" numbers than earlier arb years. I'm not defending the system, but it is what it is, and our players are getting close to "what they are worth" within the established system of setting the value of contracts for arb eligible players.

 

Pom's $8.5M was in his final arb year. Bogey's $7M is in his 2nd of 3 arb years. I think Holt was overpaid at $2.25M for his 2nd or 3 arbs years, but we're talking by thousands not millions of dollars under the system in place.

 

All in all, it looks like the Sox might end up saving a few million dollars over the estimates, but the Betts' arb decision might change that.

 

 

[notin]

). Kelly's was his final arb year, which normally is much closer to "free market" numbers than earlier arb years.

 

 

 

If Kelly was a free agent right now, he would easily get double that number, and get it for 2 years.

 

Given what the middle relief arms/set up guys are going for, Kelly is actually pretty good trade bait...

[moonslav59]

If Kelly was a free agent right now, he would easily get double that number, and get it for 2 years.

 

Given what the middle relief arms/set up guys are going for, Kelly is actually pretty good trade bait...

 

True...or close to double.

 

Addison Reed just got almost $17M/2. I think Kelly is a close comp but maybe not as good as Reed.

 

Still, the last year of arb is usually "closer" to FA market rates than earlier arb years, but the numbers can still fall way short.

[Elktonnick]

The data driven executives are more proof of the point that the way the game is evaluated is rapidly changing.

 

15 years ago, using OBP instead of batting average was a shocking turn of events. Since then we have gone through WARP, Win Shares, WAR, and other statistical methods and dozens of new stats. Anything from xFIP to wOBA.

 

How has the game itself changed in the past 15 years? Fewer IP from starters? More specialization players? Anythng else significant?

 

All of these aspects reinforce one another as well as the fact that there is more money in the game than ever before. The cost of making an error in real dollars has gone up hence the trend to base more decisions on quantifiable data points.

[Bellhorn04]

All of these aspects reinforce one another as well as the fact that there is more money in the game than ever before. The cost of making an error in real dollars has gone up hence the trend to base more decisions on quantifiable data points.

 

There is also the latest CBA which put in some relatively small annual increases in the tax thresholds, and instituted some new penalties for exceeding the thresholds.

[moonslav59]

Updated Red Sox Luxury Tax Budget (AVV)

 

$Millions

31.0 Price

22.0 HRam

20.6 Porcello

18.5 Sandoval

13.8 Pedroia

13.0 Kimbrel (-1.0 credit for buyout)

12.5 Sale

8.50 Pomeranz

7.05 Bogey

6.50 Moreland

6.10 JBJ

3.83 Kelly

2.38 ERod

2.23 Holt

1.95 Leon

1.43 Vaz

1.10 Wright

0.85 Smith

0.85 Workman

 

7.5 or 10.5 (arb) Betts

 

5.6 Total for Elias, Barnes, Hembree, Swihart, Beni, Scott, Taylor, Beeks, Brentz, Buttrey, Devers, Hernandez, Jerez, Johnson, Lin, Maddox, Marrero, Shepherd, Travis, Velazquez

 

14.0 Player Benifit Payment

$202.3M or 205.3M Total

 

Depending on the Betts' arb ($5.3M or $8.3M over the luxury tax).

 

 

[Elktonnick]

There is also the latest CBA which put in some relatively small annual increases in the tax thresholds, and instituted some new penalties for exceeding the thresholds.

Yes I agree that's an excellent point. I however was referring to the economic penalties that the marketplaces places on a franchise. The Marlins are in case in point. The prior ownership spent foolishly on some bloated long term contracts and was forced to sell the team. The new ownership's only viable option to ensure economic survival was forced to hold a virtual fire sale. I may be being overly dramatic in my language but I think one can see my point.

[moonslav59]

Yes I agree that's an excellent point. I however was referring to the economic penalties that the marketplaces places on a franchise. The Marlins are in case in point. The prior ownership spent foolishly on some bloated long term contracts and was forced to sell the team. The new ownership's only viable option to ensure economic survival was forced to hold a virtual fire sale. I may be being overly dramatic in my language but I think one can see my point.

 

Stanton's contract was not absurd, nor Gordon's.

 

The new ownership will meet up with the same issues of the old ones: lack of fans and viewership.

 

They should move the team to North Carolina and start over.

[Spudboy]

Updated Red Sox Luxury Tax Budget (AVV)

 

$Millions

31.0 Price

22.0 HRam

20.6 Porcello

18.5 Sandoval

13.8 Pedroia

13.0 Kimbrel (-1.0 credit for buyout)

12.5 Sale

8.50 Pomeranz

7.05 Bogey

6.50 Moreland

6.10 JBJ

3.83 Kelly

2.38 ERod

2.23 Holt

1.95 Leon

1.43 Vaz

1.10 Wright

0.85 Smith

0.85 Workman

 

7.5 or 10.5 (arb) Betts

 

5.6 Total for Elias, Barnes, Hembree, Swihart, Beni, Scott, Taylor, Beeks, Brentz, Buttrey, Devers, Hernandez, Jerez, Johnson, Lin, Maddox, Marrero, Shepherd, Travis, Velazquez

 

14.0 Player Benifit Payment

$202.3M or 205.3M Total

 

Depending on the Betts' arb ($5.3M or $8.3M over the luxury tax).

 

 

 

Moon how much does that leave before the second limit is exceeded?

 

I ask you because you are always on top of this s***. I want to know because it will determine how much the Sox can spend on new signings.

 

Thanks.

[moonslav59]

Moon how much does that leave before the second limit is exceeded?

 

I ask you because you are always on top of this s***. I want to know because it will determine how much the Sox can spend on new signings.

 

Thanks.

 

The second limit is not as bad as some have made it out to be, especially to teams that just reset their tax, like we did.

 

It's the 3rd level that's the killer.

 

Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are taxed at 12 percent on all money spent above $217M.

 

Those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

 

So, basically, we have about $11-14M (depending on Mookie's arb) to reach the second limit. We have $31-34M to spend and still stay under the 3rd limit.

 

We could sign JD to $25M and have about $6M or $9M to play with this summer, if needed.

 

[moonslav59]

JD's Potential for Falling off a Cliff

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-d-martinezs-potential-for-falling-off-a-cliff/

[oldtimer]

JD's Potential for Falling off a Cliff

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-d-martinezs-potential-for-falling-off-a-cliff/

 

Pretty interesting analysis and certainly supports those of us who are suggesting 5 years as a maximum. When you think of his defense and injury history going past 5 years at $25 mil/year isn't warranted.

[Elktonnick]

Stanton's contract was not absurd, nor Gordon's.

 

The new ownership will meet up with the same issues of the old ones: lack of fans and viewership.

 

They should move the team to North Carolina and start over.

 

Any contract a business can not afford is absurd. Stanton's contract would have been absurd for most franchises. Even the New York Yankees may well come to rue the day they agreed to pick it up.

[Bellhorn04]

Any contract a business can not afford is absurd. Stanton's contract would have been absurd for most franchises. Even the New York Yankees may well come to rue the day they agreed to pick it up.

 

The AAV of Stanton's contract for the Yankees is arguably a bargain at $22 million.

 

The absurd part is the length of the contract, which runs until 2027.

[Bellhorn04]

RIP announcer Keith Jackson, 89. He was best known as a college football play-by-play man, but he also did baseball for ABC in the late 70's and early 80's.

 

He has a connection to Red Sox history as the man who called the 1978 Red Sox-Yankees playoff game.