A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Not to have to rehash mythical cliffs every day forever and ever.

 

A cliff made of hash would be cool though.

[Slasher9]

I don't think that Slasher hates him.

 

I think i might. he is responsible for the contract that i predict will go down as the worst contract ever signed (Price).

he has not netted us a parade.

he has (as predicted) decimated our Farm.

if he does his job and obtains Giancarlo all will be forgiven.......

[Slasher9]

A cliff made of hash would be cool though.

 

IN.

[mvp 78]

A cliff made of hash would be cool though.

 

Mmmmm, I do love good hashbrowns!

[moonslav59]

Yeah, but Slasher is a DD hater too.

 

Too?

 

I like what DD has done overall.

[Bellhorn04]

Too?

 

I like what DD has done overall.

 

Sorry, I should have said Slasher is a Cliff Believer.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hard to say, but Timlin and Embree pitched superbly in the 2003 postseason, so Grady was just a bozo, I think.

 

I know right, maybe Ugey wouldn’t have lit his servants on fire!

[Kimmi]

Is it superstition to believe that the 9th inning really is different, that the 9th inning is the hardest one to pitch no matter what the stats say? I don't really know the answer. But there seem to be cases of pitchers who are great in the 7th and 8th but really struggle in the 9th. The old mysterious X factors.

 

I don't think it's superstition. I think it's just that most managers just tend to stick with the way that it's always been done.

 

But I completely agree that a 'closer' should be brought into the game in earlier innings if that is when the game needs to be saved.

[Kimmi]

personally i believe the CLIFF is different from our last place finishes this decade. on paper, we were not a "rebuilding" team. on paper, we were not a last place team (except for a700 - he says he predicted last place finishes all 3 of those ben years). on paper, we were not a "cliff" team.....

on paper, the cubs were 100% a CLIFF team for a number of years.

on paper, the Astros were 100% a CLIFF team for a number of years.

 

Completely agree.

[Kimmi]

Not to have to rehash mythical cliffs every day forever and ever.

 

Well, lucky for you, we are not rehashing mythical cliffs. The cliff is very real.

[moonslav59]

I'm ready to jump off a mole hill, if some big shoe doesn't drop soon.

 

See, how I didn't mention the word associated with a sharp drop off of a land mass?

 

[Bellhorn04]

I'm ready to jump off a mole hill, if some big shoe doesn't drop soon.

 

See, how I didn't mention the word associated with a sharp drop off of a land mass?

 

 

Some people like to make mountains out of mole hills.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hey, you guys are seeing the cliff. One thing you also must remember is that its about to be 2018. For 2018, your team should be in contention for a title. It is a good feeling for sure to know, going in, that your team is loaded for bear.

[Spudboy]

mine gets 23 and what is an Eff?

 

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!11!

[notin]

Hey, you guys are seeing the cliff. One thing you also must remember is that its about to be 2018. For 2018, your team should be in contention for a title. It is a good feeling for sure to know, going in, that your team is loaded for bear.

 

We'll get excited once the off-season starts...

[dgalehouse]

The purpose of having a farm is to harvest it and bring the crops to market to see what you can get for them. Then you can always replant.

[a700hitter]

Possible, sure. But I'm not convinced the core was really that strong. As I've already noted, 3 of the highest WAR guys on the 2017 team were Sale, Kimbrel and Pomeranz. Strip them away and what do you have? Mookie Betts is the only real star of the rest.

Even a top farm system is more fertilizer than crop.

[a700hitter]

I think there may be something like an element of superstition to why many managers are reluctant to use their closer earlier than the 9th.

 

They're afraid of what happens after the closer preserves the lead in the 8th. They're afraid that the reliever they bring in for the 9th will blow the game - which will not only result in a loss but will mean the real closer was wasted.

 

When you look back on baseball history the most gut-wrenching losses and nightmarish memories generally come from games where your team blew it in the last hand and the other team 'walked it off', as the announcers like to say now.

 

The 8th inning in 2003 being a notable exception, of course.

It could be that managers are just dumb and risk averse. If they save their closer until the 9th inning, it is harder to criticize a manger than if he brings in the closer earlier and then another reliever blows the game in the 9th.

[a700hitter]

personally i believe the CLIFF is different from our last place finishes this decade. on paper, we were not a "rebuilding" team. on paper, we were not a last place team (except for a700 - he says he predicted last place finishes all 3 of those ben years).

That's just not true. If people are going to bring up my name, I wish they could get things right more often than not. I didn't predict a last place finish in 2012, 2014 or 2015. I predicted first pace in '12, a 4th place finish in '14, and I am not sure about '15, but I think I also predicted a 4th place finish.

[a700hitter]

There are "cliffs" and there are "cliffs":

 

Sox 2012-15 were 69-93, 97-65, 71-91 and 78-84

Cubs 2011-14 were 71-91, 61-101, 66-96 and 73-79

Astros 2011-14 were 56-106, 55-107, 51-111, and 70-92

 

The Sox worst recent season was far better than the Cubs and Stros at their respective recent nadirs.

 

The last time the Sox had a season comparable to the Cubs 61-91 was 1965 (62-100). The last time they rivaled the Astros' from 2011-13 was 1932 (43-111).

 

Just saying it could have been worse.

But the Red Sox also had $200 million payrolls. I am pretty sure that easily outstripped the payrolls of the Astros and the Cubs.

[moonslav59]

But the Red Sox also had $200 million payrolls. I am pretty sure that easily outstripped the payrolls of the Astros and the Cubs.

 

Yes, that was Ben's downfall. He totally bombed out on free agent signings meant to keep us playoff competitive while the farm was built up to keep us winning for a long time.

 

HRam & Porcello's good years came one year too late, but even if they had their 2016 seasons in 2015, we'd have still been ringless.

 

On the payroll budgets-- not quite $200M...

 

Red Sox:

$175M in 2012

$156M in 2013 Champs

$168M in 2014

$184M in 2015

(DD has been over $197M both years.)

 

The Cubs spent

$134M in 2011 thn went down every year to $92M in 2014

(The payroll has jumped to over $172M the last 2 years.)

 

The Astros went totally over a cliff- on purpose. They went from $102M in 2009 to $77M by 2011 and a ghastly $26M by $2013. They've added almost $100M since then, and although that $124M is much less than the Sox, adding so much salary to a strong low paid core is a lot of money to spend in a short time.

 

I doubt the Sox will ever adopt a strategy of such deep futility. This was not what I meant by a "cliff." I'm not sure what others feel about this.

 

If Henry decides to keep the budget over $220M from 2020 to 2023 or 2024, then it is highly doubtful we finish in last place or that we will be viewed as total non competitors for consecutive seasons. I'll believe it when I see it.

[moonslav59]

The Angels sign Kebin Maitan & Livan Soto.

 

So much for us swooping in on the best of the Braves mistakes.

Edited December 6, 2017 by moonslav59

[Larry Cook]

The Angels Livan Soto.

 

So much for us swooping in on the best of the Braves mistakes.

 

Well that hurt! Desperate dave needs to quit spending all day looking at pictures of verlander’s squeeze and get to work!

 

To bad all those bright youngsters bolted the organization a couple years ago because desperate Dave needs a lot of help right about now! The first tool in the desperate dave toolbox is to overspend after periods of inactivity, in order to convince the weak minded that he knows what he is doing.

[a700hitter]

Yes, that was Ben's downfall. He totally bombed out on free agent signings meant to keep us playoff competitive while the farm was built up to keep us winning for a long time.

 

HRam & Porcello's good years came one year too late, but even if they had their 2016 seasons in 2015, we'd have still been ringless.

 

On the payroll budgets-- not quite $200M...

 

Red Sox:

$175M in 2012

$156M in 2013 Champs

$168M in 2014

$184M in 2015

(DD has been over $197M both years.)

 

The Cubs spent

$134M in 2011 thn went down every year to $92M in 2014

(The payroll has jumped to over $172M the last 2 years.)

 

The Astros went totally over a cliff- on purpose. They went from $102M in 2009 to $77M by 2011 and a ghastly $26M by $2013. They've added almost $100M since then, and although that $124M is much less than the Sox, adding so much salary to a strong low paid core is a lot of money to spend in a short time.

 

I doubt the Sox will ever adopt a strategy of such deep futility. This was not what I meant by a "cliff." I'm not sure what others feel about this.

 

If Henry decides to keep the budget over $220M from 2020 to 2023 or 2024, then it is highly doubtful we finish in last place or that we will be viewed as total non competitors for consecutive seasons. I'll believe it when I see it.

I am astounded at $26 million spent Houston in 2013. Did they only spend their revenue sharing check?

[moonslav59]

I am astounded at $26 million spent Houston in 2013. Did they only spend their revenue sharing check?

 

I wonder how much the owner made despite losing some fan viewership and attendance.

[harmony]

I am astounded at $26 million spent Houston in 2013. Did they only spend their revenue sharing check?

I remember debating the issue on the old Boston.com forum where some posters thought MLB should withhold the the revenue sharing money if the Astros were not spending the money on payroll.

 

I drew the comparative analogy to the person who lives paycheck-to-paycheck and the person who saves money with plans to spend that money at a later date. The Astros have done the latter by appropriately spending the money on Josh Reddick, James McCann, Carlos Beltran, Charlie Morton and Justin Verlander when their young core matured.

Edited December 6, 2017 by harmony

[harmony]

The Red Sox apparently will have a more emotional manager this year:

 

http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/new-boston-red-sox-manager-alex-cora-engaged-public-disputes-houston-astros-broadcaster-geoff-blum-manager-aj-hinch

[mvp 78]

I am astounded at $26 million spent Houston in 2013. Did they only spend their revenue sharing check?

 

And wasted $5M on negative WAR FA players like Carlos Pena, Ronny Cedeno, Philip Humber. Yuck.

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox apparently will have a more emotional manager this year:

 

http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/new-boston-red-sox-manager-alex-cora-engaged-public-disputes-houston-astros-broadcaster-geoff-blum-manager-aj-hinch

 

Ok?

[moonslav59]

I have no idea how Cora will be as a manager, but I'm excited about what I've read, so far.

 

I'm also thinking that we just needed a change to get players more aware of their own problem areas, such as excessive mental mistakes and blunders.