A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

I came back to this post simply because of the amount of effort you put into it and the developing nature of the story. Thornburg signed for 2018 for a little over $2 mil. Perhaps you should make a separate string with this kind of information and just do an update as changes occur. That would save needing to repeat the work and posts would only be needed when a change occurred.

 

I tried to just count major/key players or big contracts plus a few role players. I didn't include Thornburg, because he never pitched for us and is recovering from a very serious injury.

 

Here's an updated & expanded look...

 

Current Core of this team:

(Note: "to keep him" could also mean to replace him with a similar level player through free agency.)

 

Kimbrel $13M then $18M to keep him (+$5M)

Pomeranz ~9M then $19M to keep him (+$10M)

Sale $25.5M + $13.5M then over $30M to keep him (+$18M)

Bogey ~$7M & $12M then maybe $22M to keep him (+$10M)(+$15M from 2018's salary)

Porcello $21M + $21M then maybe $16M to keep him (-$4M)

Betts ~$10M, $15M, $20M then $28M+ to keep him (+8M) (+$18M from 2018)

JBJ ~$6M, $10M, $14M then maybe $18M to keep him (+$4M) (+$12M from 2018)

Pedroia $13.75M until the end of 2021

Price $31M until the end of 2022

 

Beni: 5 years of control (3 are arbs)

Devers: 5+ years of team control (3+ are arbs)

 

Role Players:

Kelly ~$4M then maybe $7M to keep him (+3M)

Thornburg $2.05M + 1 more arb (hard to project)

Holt ~$2M then 1 more arb (DFA?)

Vaz ~$1.5M then 2 arbs

Smith ~$1M then 2 arbs

Leon ~2.5M then 2 arbs

Wright ~$1M + 2 arbs

Workman ~$1M + 2 arbs

ERod ~$4M + 3 arbs

 

Not Yet At Arb

Barnes & Hembree 1 the 3 arbs

Swihart 1 then 4 arbs

Scott, Hernandez, Marrero 2 then 3 arbs

 

Arb Years Not Set

Lin, Maddox, Travis, Velazquez, Johnson, Taylor, Beeks, Brentz, Shepherd, Buttrey, Jerez, Owens

 

Sunken Cost Coming Off the Books

HRam $22M after 2018 or 2019 (if he vests)

Pablo $19M to $5M for 2020 then zero for 2021

Castillo (off luxury tax) $11.8M, $11.8M & $14.3M

 

Of course, we do not need to keep everyone to be competitive, and we could replace some of these players with lesser cost free agents.

 

If my projections are wrong, and players will not be making what I estimated, it would also mean their value has fallen due to poor performance between now and then.

 

I'm looking at over $55M more needed (after last arb or year of salary) to keep everyone and fill no holes that might open elsewhere. It will likely be more than $80M from their 2018 salaries. Subtract the sunken costs from HRam/Pablo & Castillo and it doesn't look horrible, but it will still take a massive increase in our budget to keep everyone or replace them in kind.

 

[Bellhorn04]

It's also the entire crux of the argument about why closers are overrated (as a role).

 

You pointed out the Sox were 22-19 in one run games. As I am getting hypothetical and no there is no real answer, what do you think their record would have been if Kimbrel pitched in the 7th or 8th innings if the game was on the line then? I'm talking about games where the set up guys and other relievers put the Sox behind by a run.

 

I think there may be something like an element of superstition to why many managers are reluctant to use their closer earlier than the 9th.

 

They're afraid of what happens after the closer preserves the lead in the 8th. They're afraid that the reliever they bring in for the 9th will blow the game - which will not only result in a loss but will mean the real closer was wasted.

 

When you look back on baseball history the most gut-wrenching losses and nightmarish memories generally come from games where your team blew it in the last hand and the other team 'walked it off', as the announcers like to say now.

 

The 8th inning in 2003 being a notable exception, of course.

[S5Dewey]

I think there may be something like an element of superstition to why many managers are reluctant to use their closer earlier than the 9th.

 

They're afraid of what happens after the closer preserves the lead in the 8th. They're afraid that the reliever they bring in for the 9th will blow the game - which will not only result in a loss but will mean the real closer was wasted.

 

When you look back on baseball history the most gut-wrenching losses and nightmarish memories generally come from games where your team blew it in the last hand and the other team 'walked it off', as the announcers like to say now.

 

The 8th inning in 2003 being a notable exception, of course.

 

 

But if the "real closer" does the job in the 7th or 8th and keeps runs from scoring he's not wasted.

 

I'm not sure "superstition" is the word you're looking for. When Farrell (or any other manager) brings in a relief pitcher and saves his "closer" for the 9th he's able to say "I did the right thing. I know that because this is the way we've always done it." I think the proper phrase is "CYA".

[Bellhorn04]

But if the "real closer" does the job in the 7th or 8th and keeps runs from scoring he's not wasted.

 

If the guy that comes in in the 9th blows the game, you could argue that the closer was wasted because it's still a loss, and the closer threw a bunch of pitches, possibly making him unavailable for the next game.

 

It's this worst case scenario that scares some managers, I think.

[Bellhorn04]

Is it superstition to believe that the 9th inning really is different, that the 9th inning is the hardest one to pitch no matter what the stats say? I don't really know the answer. But there seem to be cases of pitchers who are great in the 7th and 8th but really struggle in the 9th. The old mysterious X factors.

[notin]

Is it superstition to believe that the 9th inning really is different, that the 9th inning is the hardest one to pitch no matter what the stats say? I don't really know the answer. But there seem to be cases of pitchers who are great in the 7th and 8th but really struggle in the 9th. The old mysterious X factors.

 

A lot of times that's because they only get a handful of save opportunities before the manager tries so.eone else. If the team is dping well, no one wants to risk it while the new guy learns the job...

[Bellhorn04]

A lot of times that's because they only get a handful of save opportunities before the manager tries so.eone else. If the team is dping well, no one wants to risk it while the new guy learns the job...

 

Nothing makes a manager nuttier than the bullpen blowing games. It'll make teams do things like trade Varitek and Lowe for Slocumb.

[Slasher9]

Ha. Worked pretty good for the Cubs and the Astros!

 

yes. but they had to deal with the "cliff" for a few seasons. do you want the cliff?

[Bellhorn04]

yes. but they had to deal with the "cliff" for a few seasons. do you want the cliff?

 

Nobody wants the cliff. (LOL)

 

But we did somehow survive a few basement finishes recently.

[Slasher9]

Nobody wants the cliff. (LOL)

 

But we did somehow survive a few basement finishes recently.

 

personally i believe the CLIFF is different from our last place finishes this decade. on paper, we were not a "rebuilding" team. on paper, we were not a last place team (except for a700 - he says he predicted last place finishes all 3 of those ben years). on paper, we were not a "cliff" team.....

on paper, the cubs were 100% a CLIFF team for a number of years.

on paper, the Astros were 100% a CLIFF team for a number of years.

[Bellhorn04]

personally i believe the CLIFF is different from our last place finishes this decade. on paper, we were not a "rebuilding" team. on paper, we were not a last place team (except for a700 - he says he predicted last place finishes all 3 of those ben years). on paper, we were not a "cliff" team.....

on paper, the cubs were 100% a CLIFF team for a number of years.

on paper, the Astros were 100% a CLIFF team for a number of years.

 

I think you're right. I'm just saying that we at least have some experience in last place finishes.

 

It's certainly hard to picture the Sox under John Henry going into a full rebuild mode.

 

Maybe old Johnny Boy will sell the team before the Cliff gets here. Who the heck knows, really...

[mvp 78]

I'm hoping for some good closer by committee talk! Anyone in?

[illinoisredsox]

yes. but they had to deal with the "cliff" for a few seasons. do you want the cliff?

 

Nobody wants the cliff. (LOL)

 

But we did somehow survive a few basement finishes recently.

 

There are "cliffs" and there are "cliffs":

 

Sox 2012-15 were 69-93, 97-65, 71-91 and 78-84

Cubs 2011-14 were 71-91, 61-101, 66-96 and 73-79

Astros 2011-14 were 56-106, 55-107, 51-111, and 70-92

 

The Sox worst recent season was far better than the Cubs and Stros at their respective recent nadirs.

 

The last time the Sox had a season comparable to the Cubs 61-91 was 1965 (62-100). The last time they rivaled the Astros' from 2011-13 was 1932 (43-111).

 

Just saying it could have been worse.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm hoping for some good closer by committee talk! Anyone in?

 

Yep. I'm up for anything right now.

[mvp 78]

Also important to note that after Dombrowski sprinkled his magic dust on the team on August 18th, 2015, the team went 26-18. Prorated that's a 96 game win total.

 

Otherwise, the team would have wound up with a ho hum 71 season the same as 2014.

 

All in, the team has a .576 win % since Dombrowski came aboard. That's good enough for 93 wins.

[Bellhorn04]

There are "cliffs" and there are "cliffs":

 

Sox 2012-15 were 69-93, 97-65, 71-91 and 78-84

Cubs 2011-14 were 71-91, 61-101, 66-96 and 73-79

Astros 2011-14 were 56-106, 55-107, 51-111, and 70-92

 

The Sox worst recent season was far better than the Cubs and Stros at their respective recent nadirs.

 

The last time the Sox had a season comparable to the Cubs 61-91 was 1965 (62-100). The last time they rivaled the Astros' from 2011-13 was 1932 (43-111).

 

Just saying it could have been worse.

 

Yep. The Astros did a full-on tank job.

[moonslav59]

yes. but they had to deal with the "cliff" for a few seasons. do you want the cliff?

 

Alert: Kimmi and I did not bring it up this time.

[Bellhorn04]

Alert: Kimmi and I did not bring it up this time.

 

Yeah, but Slasher is a DD hater too.

[cp176]

Yeah, but Slasher is a DD hater too.

 

I don't think that Slasher hates him. There a few people here who comment as though they have a great dislike for the man but it kind of seems like that dislike results from him not agreeing with them when it comes to running a ml team. Now I do expect what is coming - we don't hate him - actually we liked some of his moves but felt that he gave up way too much - he has single handedly destroyed our one time bountiful minor league system.

[mvp 78]

Yep. I'm up for anything right now.

 

Peak Red Sox CBC was 2003, right? That year, they had 10 different players earn saves. In total there was 36 saves and 21 blown saves.

 

Last year, there were only 5 (only Kimbrel had more than 1). In total there were 39 saves and 18 blown saves.

 

Seems to me that if the Sox had the 2003 bullpen last year, they should have had 3 additional losses. At 90 wins, the Sox would have hosted a WC game.

 

The 2003 relief corps had some solid arms too: Mendoza, Timlin, Embree, Williamson (coming off a solid 2002), Seanez, Lyon, etc. Most people thought the relievers would be good. There were enough arms there and an improvement from guys like Sauerbeck or Rupe could have really solidified the staff. The only question mark was the closer. At the beginning of the season, the CBC plan didn't work. "On May 29, Kim was traded to Boston for Shea Hillenbrand. Kim remained as a starter through June, but the Red Sox needed him as their closer because the Red Sox's closer-by-committee approach implemented following the advice of statistician and Red Sox adviser Bill James was failing." I remember a lot of TALK RADIO CALLERS worrying about Kim and how he handled himself on the mound in 2001 WS and worrying that he wouldn't be able to handle it. He was ok and had an 84 save %. In 2017, there were 8 relievers with over 10 saves that had worse save percentages.

 

What if the bullpen had a lockdown closer in 2003. What if they had simply re-signed their All Star 2002 closer Ugueth Urbina? Old friend Tom Gordon? Would that have put them over the top in 2003 and given Grady Little more confidence in the pen? WHAT WOULD THAT ALTERNATE TIMELINE LOOK LIKE?

[mvp 78]

Nomar would be a WS hero. Todd Walker would have signed for a few more years. Even dum dum Lou Merloni would have a ring. Would they repeat in 2004? Schilling would not have relocated to MA. RI would have saved almost $100M that would have been wasted elsewhere. Dogs and cats living together!

[Slasher9]

Alert: Kimmi and I did not bring it up this time.

 

i am on record many times stating there is an impending cliff.

actually, i believe i was the first to state it the second DD was hired. my first post was that he will blow up the Farm. it's what DD does.

I was hopeful at the time that he would blow it up for a multitude of A++ talent. i was happy about Sale. but surprised he wasnt injured as most of DD's trades seem to involve us taking on a pitcher that is made out of glass.

Any owner that hires DD is accepting the inevitable CLIFF for the attempt to "win now".

any fan that denies the CLIFF will exist with DD as your GM probably daily drives a vehicle getting

[cp176]

i am on record many times stating there is an impending cliff.

actually, i believe i was the first to state it the second DD was hired. my first post was that he will blow up the Farm. it's what DD does.

I was hopeful at the time that he would blow it up for a multitude of A++ talent. i was happy about Sale. but surprised he wasnt injured as most of DD's trades seem to involve us taking on a pitcher that is made out of glass.

Any owner that hires DD is accepting the inevitable CLIFF for the attempt to "win now".

any fan that denies the CLIFF will exist with DD as your GM probably daily drives a vehicle getting

 

mine gets 23 and what is an Eff?

[mvp 78]

Oh boy. More cliff talk.

[Bellhorn04]

mine gets 23 and what is an Eff?

 

Zero Eff's given = Don't give a f**k

[Bellhorn04]

What if the bullpen had a lockdown closer in 2003. What if they had simply re-signed their All Star 2002 closer Ugueth Urbina? Old friend Tom Gordon? Would that have put them over the top in 2003 and given Grady Little more confidence in the pen? WHAT WOULD THAT ALTERNATE TIMELINE LOOK LIKE?

 

Hard to say, but Timlin and Embree pitched superbly in the 2003 postseason, so Grady was just a bozo, I think.

[cp176]

Zero Eff's given = Don't give a f**k

 

really ? - thanks Bell - kind of what I think about all or the cliff talk as well as the constantly competing GM's banter daily seen. Ready for some action.

[Slasher9]

Oh boy. More cliff talk.

 

what were you expecting to happen to the farm the day DD was hired?

[Slasher9]

Hard to say, but Timlin and Embree pitched superbly in the 2003 postseason, so Grady was just a bozo, I think.

 

yes. plus and admitted/confirmed Steroid user hit 2 HR's in game 7 that barely cleared the fence. without the aid of PED's they would have been cans of corn and we could have taken our chances vs Marlins.......

[mvp 78]

what were you expecting to happen to the farm the day DD was hired?

 

Not to have to rehash mythical cliffs every day forever and ever.