A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Jack Flap]

Assuming we don't extend any of our current players, don't make any new signings or trades, and do nothing to improve the current state of the farm system between now and 2020ish, then yeah, the following years are going to be pretty bleak...but surely no one believes that's going to happen. That our farm is much weaker than it was a couple of years ago, and that almost our entire MLB team will be set to hit free agency within 2-3 years of each other, is disputed by no one, but the "cliff" theory seems to assume that the Red Sox will do nothing in the face of this and will have no choice but to rebuild, which I heartily disagree with.

 

As I've said before, if this is a bad team in 2021 or whatever, it will be because we didn't play our cards right between now and then (which could be said of any organization!), not because it was somehow predetermined by moves that have already been made.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the history of MLB in this millennium demonstrates that it's extremely difficult, if not impossible, to have a dynasty or anything close to it. Not one team has even won back-to-back. You can do everything right and still come up short. Look at what happened with Cleveland the last 2 years. They put together great teams, they have a great manager, and guess what? Still looking for their first title since 1948.

[cp176]

Benintendi and Devers?

 

Couple questions for you Notin-

Who said anything about anyone wanting DD to be fired?

Who thinks that the current state of our farm system is fine?

 

I am kind of sorry that you might think that I am being condescending if you are talking about me. Maybe I am being but what I would say is that I read these posts carefully. I just choose not to buy all of the embellished ******** that gets thrown around by people who are upset if everybody doesn't agree with them.

[cp176]

Assuming we don't extend any of our current players, don't make any new signings or trades, and do nothing to improve the current state of the farm system between now and 2020ish, then yeah, the following years are going to be pretty bleak...but surely no one believes that's going to happen. That our farm is much weaker than it was a couple of years ago, and that almost our entire MLB team will be set to hit free agency within 2-3 years of each other, is disputed by no one, but the "cliff" theory seems to assume that the Red Sox will do nothing in the face of this and will have no choice but to rebuild, which I heartily disagree with.

 

As I've said before, if this is a bad team in 2021 or whatever, it will be because we didn't play our cards right between now and then (which could be said of any organization!), not because it was somehow predetermined by moves that have already been made.

 

I'm with you here!

[cp176]

Couple questions for you Notin-

Who said anything about anyone wanting DD to be fired?

Who thinks that the current state of our farm system is fine?

 

I am kind of sorry that you might think that I am being condescending if you are talking about me. Maybe I am being but what I would say is that I read these posts carefully. I just choose not to buy all of the embellished ******** that gets thrown around by people who are upset if everybody doesn't agree with them.

 

 

whoops sorry Bell - I'm sleepy this am - this was meant to be a response to Notin.

[S5Dewey]

What's happening to the Red Sox right now is exactly what MLB wants to have happen. The MLB is trying to establish parity - that the traditionally weaker teams will begin to have a chance to win more games and have more chances to make the playoffs, packing more fannies into the seats.

 

While that may not be good for the fans of the Yankees or the Red Sox it's good for baseball. MLB is trying to create a cycle where teams go from being very good to not being very good, and it's being successful. They (MLB) tried to do it by financially penalizing teams for FA acquistions. That didn't work because some teams saw the LT penalty as just more of the price of salaries. Now MLB is also going to limit draft picks and international signing for successful teams.

 

Given all that MLB is doing to thwart DD's plans I find it hard to blame DD for trying to put together a team that has a legitimate chance to win it all within a window and then spend a couple of years rebuilding. It's the wave of the future and we can try to win one now while we can or we can resign ourselves to mediocrity while other teams are catching up.

[Bellhorn04]

Another question that arises is, what could DD have done better than he did? The move that seems to be criticized the most is the Kimbrel trade. So OK, take that one back. Would we be in fantastic shape for the future if he didn't make that move?

[Kimmi]

I prefer the term "potential cliff".

Overall, its a dumb idea anyway. Too much can change in the period of three years to postulate baseball Armageddon for this team.

 

I think everyone has acknowledged that a lot can change in 2-3 years. For now, however, the cliff exists. It's looming.

[Bellhorn04]

I think everyone has acknowledged that a lot can change in 2-3 years. For now, however, the cliff exists. It's looming.

 

It exists for you, Kimmi. You're certainly entitled to think of it that way, but not everyone is required to think of it that way.

[Kimmi]

Assuming the word "cliff means" 2-3 consecutive years of missing the playoffs (I know others may define it differently, but for argument's sake follow along.)

 

My opinion of the 'cliff' is that we will have a stretch of 2-4 years where the team will be 'rebuilding' to the extent that they will not be predicted to contend for the postseason. In other words, going into the season, we will know that our chances of postseason play will be slim to none.

 

If we have a playoff contending team on paper going into the season, but fail to make the playoffs, I would not consider that a cliff season.

[Kimmi]

"Win now" is the optimistic side of the same coin...

 

Not only that, but the media talks about the team having a '3 year window' all the time. That is exactly the same thing as talking about the cliff.

[jacksonianmarch]

Assuming we don't extend any of our current players, don't make any new signings or trades, and do nothing to improve the current state of the farm system between now and 2020ish, then yeah, the following years are going to be pretty bleak...but surely no one believes that's going to happen. That our farm is much weaker than it was a couple of years ago, and that almost our entire MLB team will be set to hit free agency within 2-3 years of each other, is disputed by no one, but the "cliff" theory seems to assume that the Red Sox will do nothing in the face of this and will have no choice but to rebuild, which I heartily disagree with.

 

As I've said before, if this is a bad team in 2021 or whatever, it will be because we didn't play our cards right between now and then (which could be said of any organization!), not because it was somehow predetermined by moves that have already been made.

 

You won’t extend everyone. And every long term dollar handed out this offseason makes re-signing those players harder.

 

Hey, I don’t begrudge DD’s approach. The Yankees employed that approach from 02-13 and it got us to the playoffs all but two of those seasons and won us a title in 09. The problem now is that players are getting paid at much higher rates due to revenue sharing and more competition for talent and the lux tax cap has a much harsher penalty. This is why NYY went through a dry spell as we fell after 2012 and really didn’t rise (sans a 1 game playoff in 2015) for 5 years. The Yankees did it really the right way. We sold off assets for prime minor league talent. Our farm was hitting its stride at the same time. We also got insanely lucky. Gary Sanchez went from a malcontent with enormous potential to a leader with a bat unseen at that position at that age really ever. Aaron Judge went from 50% K rate in his brief cameo to a juggernaut runner up MVP candidate. Severino went from a scared pup with an ERA north of 8 to 3rd in CY voting. Part of building a long term successful franchise is luck.

 

I do think Cherington was building a model for long term success, but his inability to pull the trigger on the right moves (both FA and trade) sealed his fate in a large market. DD knows how to make the big trade and it got you back on top. But his philosophies require big pockets and his sustainability under this new CBA is nearly impossible. You need a strong farm AND deep pockets to be a long term force or a “dynasty” per se. Dave wasn’t brought to Boston to build a dynasty. He was brought to Boston to win now as the fan base was getting apathetic. Big difference. His win now approach nearly guarantees a cliff, with a low chance of a “lucky” find in the minors like Chavis turning into a Jeff Kent type player or something akin to that.

[Bellhorn04]

Not only that, but the media talks about the team having a '3 year window' all the time. That is exactly the same thing as talking about the cliff.

 

Except '3 year window' doesn't automatically imply disaster at the end of the window.

[Bellhorn04]

I do think Cherington was building a model for long term success, but his inability to pull the trigger on the right moves (both FA and trade) sealed his fate in a large market. DD knows how to make the big trade and it got you back on top. But his philosophies require big pockets and his sustainability under this new CBA is nearly impossible. You need a strong farm AND deep pockets to be a long term force or a “dynasty” per se. Dave wasn’t brought to Boston to build a dynasty. He was brought to Boston to win now as the fan base was getting apathetic. Big difference. His win now approach nearly guarantees a cliff, with a low chance of a “lucky” find in the minors like Chablis turning into a Jeff Kent type player or something akin to that.

 

I think Cherington left Dombrowski with absolutely no alternative but to trade off a big chunk of the prospects for pitching. Cherington left us with almost no good pitchers at the MLB level, and no pitching prospects anywhere near MLB ready. Plus some crippling contracts.

[Kimmi]

Assuming we don't extend any of our current players, don't make any new signings or trades, and do nothing to improve the current state of the farm system between now and 2020ish, then yeah, the following years are going to be pretty bleak...but surely no one believes that's going to happen. That our farm is much weaker than it was a couple of years ago, and that almost our entire MLB team will be set to hit free agency within 2-3 years of each other, is disputed by no one, but the "cliff" theory seems to assume that the Red Sox will do nothing in the face of this and will have no choice but to rebuild, which I heartily disagree with.

 

As I've said before, if this is a bad team in 2021 or whatever, it will be because we didn't play our cards right between now and then (which could be said of any organization!), not because it was somehow predetermined by moves that have already been made.

 

I agree with this statement. If the FO plays its cards right, it can absolutely keep the team in contention beyond 2020. The problem, as I see it, is that Dombrowski has made it a very difficult task. Not impossible, but very difficult.

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m no Cherington fan, don’t get me wrong. What he was trying to do was build as a small market team and then buy players like a large market team. The problem for Ben was that he thought you could just reach into FA on a random year and fix the problem. It doesn’t work that way, some years the FAs are awful, others they’re great. A plan leading into FA and predicting which years to go for it would have been a good start

[Kimmi]

I think the history of MLB in this millennium demonstrates that it's extremely difficult, if not impossible, to have a dynasty or anything close to it. Not one team has even won back-to-back. You can do everything right and still come up short. Look at what happened with Cleveland the last 2 years. They put together great teams, they have a great manager, and guess what? Still looking for their first title since 1948.

 

It's not about building a dynasty or winning championships year after year. It's about having a team going into the season that is good enough to contend. As I've stated before, since Henry took over, I have never felt that going into the season that the team did not have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs. That's really all you can ask of an owner and a GM, IMO.

[Kimmi]

It exists for you, Kimmi. You're certainly entitled to think of it that way, but not everyone is required to think of it that way.

 

I didn't say they were. I'm stating my opinion, just as you state your opinion that the cliff doesn't exist.

[Kimmi]

I do think Cherington was building a model for long term success, but his inability to pull the trigger on the right moves (both FA and trade) sealed his fate in a large market. DD knows how to make the big trade and it got you back on top. But his philosophies require big pockets and his sustainability under this new CBA is nearly impossible. You need a strong farm AND deep pockets to be a long term force or a “dynasty” per se. Dave wasn’t brought to Boston to build a dynasty. He was brought to Boston to win now as the fan base was getting apathetic. Big difference. His win now approach nearly guarantees a cliff, with a low chance of a “lucky” find in the minors like Chavis turning into a Jeff Kent type player or something akin to that.

 

Cherington wasn't given the chance to 'pull the trigger'. He was not ready to pull the trigger in 2015. The team was not quite ready.

[Kimmi]

Except '3 year window' doesn't automatically imply disaster at the end of the window.

 

And that point has been acknowledged over and over by me, Moon, and Notin.

[jacksonianmarch]

At the end of the 3 year window, without either a previously unseen financial investment or insane luck in developing a currently barren farm, your team will slip into mediocrity

[Bellhorn04]

Cherington wasn't given the chance to 'pull the trigger'. He was not ready to pull the trigger in 2015. The team was not quite ready.

 

But he did pull the trigger in 2015. Castillo, Hanley, Panda, Porcello extension - over $300 million laid out with those moves. Miley and Masterson. He tried to pull the trigger, but he misfired.

Edited December 2, 2017 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

At the end of the 3 year window, without either a previously unseen financial investment or insane luck in developing a currently barren farm, your team will slip into mediocrity

 

Well now you're just re-stating the obvious. You're leaving out the possibility that we become sellers. That's how your team did a lot of its re-loading if I recall correctly.

[jacksonianmarch]

Cherington wasn't given the chance to 'pull the trigger'. He was not ready to pull the trigger in 2015. The team was not quite ready.

 

That’s revisionist. He was at the helm for the disastrous Lackey deal. He bought Rusney who sucks. His deals for Hanley and Panda were disastrous. He could build position player depth but couldn’t develop pitching to save his life. He was no saint

[Kimmi]

At the end of the 3 year window, without either a previously unseen financial investment or insane luck in developing a currently barren farm, your team will slip into mediocrity

 

That's all I'm saying.

[Kimmi]

But he did pull the trigger in 2015. Castillo, Hanley, Panda, Porcello extension - over $300 million laid out with those moves. Miley and Masterson. He tried to pull the trigger, but he misfired.

 

No, I don't think that was pulling the trigger for 2015. The Porcello extension was given as part of the trigger for the 2016 and beyond seasons. He's been hit and miss so far. Castillo was another player acquired in hopes of helping the team for 2016 and beyond. He has been a complete bust or sure. IMO, Ben is responsible for those two moves.

 

I just cannot and will not attribute the Panda signing to Ben. It goes so against his grain that it doesn't make any sense.

 

I have no problems with the Hanley signing.

[Bellhorn04]

No, I don't think that was pulling the trigger for 2015. The Porcello extension was given as part of the trigger for the 2016 and beyond seasons. He's been hit and miss so far. Castillo was another player acquired in hopes of helping the team for 2016 and beyond. He has been a complete bust or sure. IMO, Ben is responsible for those two moves.

 

I just cannot and will not attribute the Panda signing to Ben. It goes so against his grain that it doesn't make any sense.

 

I have no problems with the Hanley signing.

 

How can outlays of over $300 million not be pulling the trigger? What do you call pulling the trigger?

[Kimmi]

That’s revisionist. He was at the helm for the disastrous Lackey deal. He bought Rusney who sucks. His deals for Hanley and Panda were disastrous. He could build position player depth but couldn’t develop pitching to save his life. He was no saint

 

I will defend Ben against his critics until I'm blue in the face, but I have never claimed that he was without his mistakes. He just doesn't get the credit he deserves, which is more credit than Dombrowski deserves for our 2016 and 2017 teams.

[moonslav59]

I had never heard of this cliff other than a couple of people promoting the idea here on Talksox.

 

The local media speaks once in while of the Sox being in "Win now" mode but no reference is made to any cliff.

 

Since when has the local media had any cred on any Sox talk sites?

[moonslav59]

Benintendi and Devers?

 

Yes, both Ben guys who were acquired through a high draft pick and a more laxed international signing set up.

 

For those who poo-poo'd Espi and Kopech and others as too far away to have any faith in, now want us to suddenly have faith that Groome or some other prospect acquired with lower picks of in a more restricted FA market are going to plug the holes left by a couple or more significant departing free agent vets.