A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[a700hitter]

Since the CWS only owe $11M on Shields maybe you're right minus one of the prospects I included.

This guy will be available for a dumpster dive at some time next season. He is shot.

[moonslav59]

This guy will be available for a dumpster dive at some time next season. He is shot.

 

Like I said, I do NOT WANT SHIELDS!

 

I'd take shields only to lessen the prospects needed to go back to the CWS or to force them to take HRam or Castillo as an offset of salary.

[moonslav59]

If JD and Stanton become way too expensive, I think I'd be happy with this:

 

Sign:

Santana $58M/4

B Shaw $21M/3

L Duda $7M/1

 

1. Bogey SS

2. Betts RF

3. Beni LF

4. Santana 1B

5. Devers 3B

6. HRam DH/1B or Duda DH/OF/1B

7. Pedroia 2B

8. JBJ CF

9. Vaz C

 

Bench: Leon, Duda, Hernandez or Holt, Swihart/Brentz/Marrero/Lin/Travis

 

SP: Sale, Price, Pom, Porcello, ERod/Wright/Johnson/Beeks/Haley

RP: Kimbrel, Shaw, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Hembree, Scott/Maddox/Workman/Thornburg

[jacksonianmarch]

I had Santana as my Yankee sleeper prior to this offseason, but he’s anything but that. He’s going to cost an exorbitant amount. 5 straight years of 150+ games. 123 homers in those 5 seasons. OBP .357 or higher 6 years in a row. Solid defensive metrics. Surprisingly good baserunner. Switch hitter without a weak side (higher BA righty, more power lefty). He turns 32 right after opening day. The more I look at him, the more I’m impressed. 15 WAR over last 5 seasons without a season below 2.1 or above 3.7 as a 1b. He’s the model of consistency. You can expect a .360 OBP 20-30 HR and an OPS over .800 with good defense and surprising enough speed to move the base paths. He’s going to get a contract his offseason that a lot of people will scratch their heads about. There are a lot of 1b/DH types, but he’s actually a 1b. All the other guys (Morrison, Duda, Alonso) have had shaky seasons the past few years. Santana is as sure a thing as it gets. My initial thought on him was 4 yrs $56 mil. I’m thinking he gets 5 yrs $80 mil now

[a700hitter]

Like I said, I do NOT WANT SHIELDS!

 

I'd take shields only to lessen the prospects needed to go back to the CWS or to force them to take HRam or Castillo as an offset of salary.

I'd rather eat some of HanRam's salary.

[cp176]

If the plan is in fact to use Brentz as our 4th outfielder replacing Young, it kind of feels as though Santana might be the target DD has his eyes on. A solid first baseman.

[notin]

Like I said, I do NOT WANT SHIELDS!

 

I'd take shields only to lessen the prospects needed to go back to the CWS or to force them to take HRam or Castillo as an offset of salary.

 

I'd rather have Ramirez than Shields.

 

I don't think the more expensive Castillo is much of an enticement for the Chisox to dump Shield's salary..

[notin]

I had Santana as my Yankee sleeper prior to this offseason, but he’s anything but that. He’s going to cost an exorbitant amount. 5 straight years of 150+ games. 123 homers in those 5 seasons. OBP .357 or higher 6 years in a row. Solid defensive metrics. Surprisingly good baserunner. Switch hitter without a weak side (higher BA righty, more power lefty). He turns 32 right after opening day. The more I look at him, the more I’m impressed. 15 WAR over last 5 seasons without a season below 2.1 or above 3.7 as a 1b. He’s the model of consistency. You can expect a .360 OBP 20-30 HR and an OPS over .800 with good defense and surprising enough speed to move the base paths. He’s going to get a contract his offseason that a lot of people will scratch their heads about. There are a lot of 1b/DH types, but he’s actually a 1b. All the other guys (Morrison, Duda, Alonso) have had shaky seasons the past few years. Santana is as sure a thing as it gets. My initial thought on him was 4 yrs $56 mil. I’m thinking he gets 5 yrs $80 mil now

 

The MLBTR prediction always felt light to me.

 

If Santana is willing to sign for 5/$80mill, sign him NOW!!

[notin]

I hope the Sox sign Santana.

 

I could also see reasons to sign Bryan Shaw and reasons why they might sign Matt Garza...

[moonslav59]

I'd rather have Ramirez than Shields.

 

I don't think the more expensive Castillo is much of an enticement for the Chisox to dump Shield's salary..

 

I'd rather have HRam too, and so would the CWS. That's one of the pluses they get.

[moonslav59]

The MLBTR prediction always felt light to me.

 

If Santana is willing to sign for 5/$80mill, sign him NOW!!

 

Would you take Santana over Moustakas at the same rate?

[jacksonianmarch]

I would. Moose isn’t a great defender whose offense is entirely power dependent.

[moonslav59]

I would. Moose isn’t a great defender whose offense is entirely power dependent.

 

Look at the overall effect:

 

3B: Moustakas

1B: HRam (eventually Devers)

DH: Devers

 

vs

 

3B: Devers

1B: Santana

DH: HRam

 

If you only look at defense, especially for 2018 only, I'll take the Moose scenario.

 

If you want power first and OBP second, Moose is slightly better than Santana.

 

That being said, I'm moving closer to wanting Santana over Moose, especially if the money is significantly different.

 

[Spudboy]

Interesting how Santana is worth so much more than Encarnacion.

[moonslav59]

Interesting how Santana is worth so much more than Encarnacion.

 

I was thinking the same thing a while back.

 

EE looks more and more like "the one that got away" as we see these prices seemingly going up and up.

[harmony]

Interesting how Santana is worth so much more than Encarnacion.

Last offseason Edwin Encarnacion signed a three-year, $60 million contract (plus modest bonuses) with a club option for a fourth year at $20 million (or a $5 million buyout included in the $60 million total).

 

No guarantee that Carlos Santana will get more.

[moonslav59]

My look at our current depth chart (ML or near ML ready):

 

C: Vaz - Leon

Swihart, Romanski, Procyshen

 

1B: HRam- Travis (Devers/Holt/Swihart)

Chavis, Witte, Ockimey

 

2B: Pedroia- Hernandez- Holt

Lin, Marrero, M Miller

 

3B: Devers- Hernandez- Holt

Lin, Marrero, Chavis, Witte

 

SS: Bogaerts- Hernandez-Lin- Holt

Marrero, de la Guerra

 

LF: Benintendi- Holt (Shaw, Chavis, Swihart)

Brentz, Mars

 

CF: Bradley (Beni/Betts/Holt)

Mars, Castillo

 

RF: Betts - Holt (JBJ/Beni)

Brentz. Mars, Castillo

 

SP: Sale, Price, Pomeranz, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright

Velzquez, Johnson, Elias, Haley, Beeks, Lakins

 

RP: Kimbrel, Smith, (Thornburg), Kelly, Barnes, Maddox, Workman, Hembree, Scott

Taylot, Jerez, Martin, Shepherd, Buttrey, Coisart

 

[oldtimer]

My look at our current depth chart (ML or near ML ready):

 

C: Vaz - Leon

Swihart, Romanski, Procyshen

 

1B: HRam- Travis (Devers/Holt/Swihart)

Chavis, Witte, Ockimey

 

2B: Pedroia- Hernandez- Holt

Lin, Marrero, M Miller

 

3B: Devers- Hernandez- Holt

Lin, Marrero, Chavis, Witte

 

SS: Bogaerts- Hernandez-Lin- Holt

Marrero, de la Guerra

 

LF: Benintendi- Holt (Shaw, Chavis, Swihart)

Brentz, Mars

 

CF: Bradley (Beni/Betts/Holt)

Mars, Castillo

 

RF: Betts - Holt (JBJ/Beni)

Brentz. Mars, Castillo

 

SP: Sale, Price, Pomeranz, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright

Velzquez, Johnson, Elias, Haley, Beeks, Lakins

 

RP: Kimbrel, Smith, (Thornburg), Kelly, Barnes, Maddox, Workman, Hembree, Scott

Taylot, Jerez, Martin, Shepherd, Buttrey, Coisart

 

 

If you believe what DD was saying about Brentz being given a solid chance as our 4th outfielder, how does that impact our need for Holt. We have betterIf's, so is he more likely to be mved/

[moonslav59]

If you believe what DD was saying about Brentz being given a solid chance as our 4th outfielder, how does that impact our need for Holt. We have betterIf's, so is he more likely to be mved/

 

With Pedey out, I think Holt sticks on the 25 man roster, at least until we see how Brentz looks and if Marco can handle 2B.

 

Marrero is out of options. I think he goes and Holt stays. Lin begins the year at AAA.

 

Swihart may force his way into the choice for the 25th slot as he is out of options as well. (Phantom DL? Trade someone?)

[Kimmi]

Last offseason Edwin Encarnacion signed a three-year, $60 million contract (plus modest bonuses) with a club option for a fourth year at $20 million (or a $5 million buyout included in the $60 million total).

 

No guarantee that Carlos Santana will get more.

 

At the beginning of last offseason, speculation was that Encarnacion would get a much larger deal than that. The same thing may be true this year with regards to Santana and also JD. The market may not be nearly as high as what the rumors and the agents are suggesting.

[cp176]

I was thinking the same thing a while back.

 

EE looks more and more like "the one that got away" as we see these prices seemingly going up and up.

 

I find this to be a very interesting comment. I've jokingly referred to the Red Sox budget being limitless over the years. Although I think that in fact they do have a supposed budget, my guess would be that no one posting here has any idea to what heights it might sore. It is all simple guess work. I was one of the few who felt that signing EE or someone like him was necessary. I still feel that way. Our offense is anemic and needs a boost. I feel very comfortable with my opinion that decisions to improve our offense will not be determined at all by what some here think that budget might be. Talking trade is a different story. Trading away players is entirely different than signing a free agent. I don't think that it will matter at all whether it is Boras or any other agent. The best will be paid and the Sox can and likely will be doing some of that paying. I don't think budget restraints of any kind have really ever been of much interest to Mr. Henry. Oh I understand all about running a business and what we see as his need to stay financially stable. I don't think billionaires look at things the way I tend to though.

[Bellhorn04]

I find this to be a very interesting comment. I've jokingly referred to the Red Sox budget being limitless over the years. Although I think that in fact they do have a supposed budget, my guess would be that no one posting here has any idea to what heights it might sore. It is all simple guess work. I was one of the few who felt that signing EE or someone like him was necessary. I still feel that way. Our offense is anemic and needs a boost. I feel very comfortable with my opinion that decisions to improve our offense will not be determined at all by what some here think that budget might be. Talking trade is a different story. Trading away players is entirely different than signing a free agent. I don't think that it will matter at all whether it is Boras or any other agent. The best will be paid and the Sox can and likely will be doing some of that paying. I don't think budget restraints of any kind have really ever been of much interest to Mr. Henry. Oh I understand all about running a business and what we see as his need to stay financially stable. I don't think billionaires look at things the way I tend to though.

 

John Henry certainly doesn't look at things exactly the way we do. But he doesn't want to lose money and he doesn't want to be a financial idiot with his baseball team. At the same time he's very very interested in fielding teams that can compete for the ring. That's good for the customers, and I imagine there's a pretty sweet kick in holding that trophy. Not many people get to do that, not even the other billionaires.

 

PS I'm basically just jibber-jabbering...not much else happening right now.

[cp176]

I know what you mean!

 

No business man wants to ever lose money for sure. That being said, I don't think that making money right now on the day to day workings of his team really means all that much to John Henry. Now that is just my opinion.

[Bellhorn04]

The team could actually just break even every year and Henry would still be popping champagne corks, because the market value of his asset keeps ascending into the heavens. I mean, the sad sack Marlins sold for 1.2 billion freaking dollars.

[harmony]

At the beginning of last offseason, speculation was that Encarnacion would get a much larger deal than that. The same thing may be true this year with regards to Santana and also JD. The market may not be nearly as high as what the rumors and the agents are suggesting.

Last offseason MLB Trade Rumors predicted a four-year, $92 million contract for Edwin Encarnacion:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html

 

Encarnacion reportedly turned down an early four-year, $80 million offer from the Blue Jays before signing the three-year. $60 million contract with the Guardians (with a club option for a fourth year).

 

This offseason MLB Trade Rumors predict J.D. Martinez at six years and $150 million, Eric Hosmer at six years and $132 million, and Carlos Santana at three years and $45 million:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

[moonslav59]

I think pride is an element of it all, too.

 

No GM wants people to think the bought a championship. Certainly, if the Dodgers had won last year, we'd have heard the same argument as we did for years against the Yanks.

I do think Henry could easily pay for a $300M budget plus the luxury taxes, but he won't, and he hasn't.

 

I think Henry okays us going over by $39.99M this season, if we have to in order to be highly competitive, but eventually, he will want to reset the tax again.

 

He will not want to be the highest paid team in MLB- maybe for one single year only.

[cp176]

The team could actually just break even every year and Henry would still be popping champagne corks, because the market value of his asset keeps ascending into the heavens. I mean, the sad sack Marlins sold for 1.2 billion freaking dollars.

 

I agree. Something that really should be common knowledge, is that what he spends in maintenance year to year, based on what he paid for the franchise and what he will be able to get for it if he ever sells, think he will more than make up any money that many of us worry about him spending on things like free agency and luxury taxes etc. It is good to be able to be in control of the "budget" and even better if you have a fan base that thinks you have a real one.

[notin]

Last offseason Edwin Encarnacion signed a three-year, $60 million contract (plus modest bonuses) with a club option for a fourth year at $20 million (or a $5 million buyout included in the $60 million total).

 

No guarantee that Carlos Santana will get more.

 

You might want to make up your mind on this. You've already posted about the irrelevance of EE's contract since he did turn down a larger offer

 

It's starting to look like you're simply choosing whichever side will make someone else look wrong...

[harmony]

You might want to make up your mind on this. You've already posted about the irrelevance of EE's contract since he did turn down a larger offer

 

It's starting to look like you're simply choosing whichever side will make someone else look wrong...

I simply provide balanced, unbiased information and let the reader reach his or her own conclusions ... or not.

 

Objectivity is a heavy cross to bear.

[notin]

Interesting how Santana is worth so much more than Encarnacion.

 

The one thing that might drop free agent prices this year is the anticipation of next year's class and the number of normally big spenders trying to get under the luxury tax limit this year...