A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Why wasn't he ready on Sept. 1 though?

 

The simplest answer is they preferred Young and whoever else they called up, and Young is now gone. Not sure what other information you think any of us can provide.

[mvp 78]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=3882&position=OF&type=&gds=2017-09-04&gde=2017-10-01&season=

 

They blew that call for sure.

[moonslav59]

Brentz is still el fuego...

 

Mexican Pacific League

Bryce Brentz had a solid week for Hermosillo, mustering six hits in 18 at-bats and launching his league-leading seventh home run of the season. Brentz did also walk eight times over the course of the last week, including a three-walk outing on November 11, and has raised his OBP to .342 on the season along with a .467 slugging percentage.

 

 

Counting the summer and fall, Brentz has 38 HRs in under 500 ABs.

[moonslav59]

Mariners trade for Ryon Healy and his 5 years of team control.

 

25 HRs in 149 games (half in a huge park)

 

.788 OPS in 888 career PAs

 

This might take Seattle out of the 1B market for Santana and others.

Edited November 16, 2017 by moonslav59

[Larry Cook]

Mariners trade for Ryon Healy and his 5 years of team control.

 

25 HRs in 149 games (half in a huge park)

 

.788 OPS in 888 career PAs

 

This might take Seattle out of the 1B market for Santana and others.

 

Smart trade.

[harmony]

Mariners trade for Ryon Healy and his 5 years of team control.

 

25 HRs in 149 games (half in a huge park)

 

.788 OPS in 888 career PAs

 

This might take Seattle out of the 1B market for Santana and others.

Third time in the last 368 days that the Seattle Mariners have traded for an Oakland Athletics first baseman (after Danny Valencia and Yonder Alonso).

 

I'm not a fan of the trade.

[moonslav59]

Third time in the last 368 days that the Seattle Mariners have traded for an Oakland Athletics first baseman (after Danny Valencia and Yonder Alonso).

 

I'm not a fan of the trade.

 

You gave up a lot, but Healy is just 25 and has 5 years of team control at a low cost.

[notin]

Third time in the last 368 days that the Seattle Mariners have traded for an Oakland Athletics first baseman (after Danny Valencia and Yonder Alonso).

 

I'm not a fan of the trade.

 

Hey no one likes every Jerry DiPoto trade. I bet DiPoto occasionally makes a deal and then thinks"Boy that was stupid

 

Luckily for you DiPoto will likely make 9 or 10 more trades before Christmas. Certainly he'll make at least one deal you like...

[harmony]

You gave up a lot, but Healy is just 25 and has 5 years of team control at a low cost.

I saw Ryon Healy go 3-for-3 with a homer, a walk and four RBI for the Oregon Ducks against Stanford in 2013 the day before I ran the Eugene Marathon (and immediately following the Ducks' spring football game that Saturday).

 

http://www.goducks.com/boxscore.aspx?id=5212&path=baseball

 

I was pulling for Stanford ... and I'm still not a fan of the trade.

[harmony]

Hey no one likes every Jerry DiPoto trade. I bet DiPoto occasionally makes a deal and then thinks"Boy that was stupid

 

Luckily for you DiPoto will likely make 9 or 10 more trades before Christmas. Certainly he'll make at least one deal you like...

Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto has already identified his worst trade:

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/swing-and-miss-jerry-dipoto-may-have-whiffed-when-mariners-traded-chris-taylor-to-dodgers-but-thats-baseball/

[jacksonianmarch]

Power has a premium. Healy is a good 1b defender with power but little else. The price was a highly paid lottery ticket (top INTL signee from 2016) and a hard throwing, young, big league reliever. That’s a steep price to pay. If this is any indication, the trade market has certainly risen in terms of pay out for power

[oldtimer]

Brentz is still el fuego...

 

Mexican Pacific League

Bryce Brentz had a solid week for Hermosillo, mustering six hits in 18 at-bats and launching his league-leading seventh home run of the season. Brentz did also walk eight times over the course of the last week, including a three-walk outing on November 11, and has raised his OBP to .342 on the season along with a .467 slugging percentage.

 

 

Counting the summer and fall, Brentz has 38 HRs in under 500 ABs.

 

Why don't we just plan on him as the 4th outfielder for 2018? If we think he is a defensive liability, we could fill in with one of our faster utility players in critical situations. He might provide pinch hitting and even DH services. Getting the 4th outfielder from our existing roster makes some sense and Castillo would be more expensive to put on the active roster.

[S5Dewey]

I've always been a fan of Bryce Brentz. I see him as Brandon Moss lite. Too good to be called a AAAA player, not good enough to be a ML starter, but with potential to be an offensive contributor in a limited defensive role. I'd be reluctant to part with him unless someone demanded him as a part of a bigger trade.

 

He's getting a little long in the tooth to land a big contract @ 28 years old but I can see him as being cheap bench strength.

[moonslav59]

Power has a premium. Healy is a good 1b defender with power but little else. The price was a highly paid lottery ticket (top INTL signee from 2016) and a hard throwing, young, big league reliever. That’s a steep price to pay. If this is any indication, the trade market has certainly risen in terms of pay out for power

 

He's had less than 400 games in the minors, so maybe there's room to improve in other areas besides power.

 

He just moved to 1B from 3B, so he may improve on his defense.

 

He's only 25. His .332 career minor league OBP is not that encouraging, but who knows this early.

 

If we end up trading for Stanton or signing JD, then Brentz will not be on the 25 man roster barring a trade.

 

Edited November 16, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Why don't we just plan on him as the 4th outfielder for 2018? If we think he is a defensive liability, we could fill in with one of our faster utility players in critical situations. He might provide pinch hitting and even DH services. Getting the 4th outfielder from our existing roster makes some sense and Castillo would be more expensive to put on the active roster.

 

I'm totally fine with starting the season with Brentz as our 4th OF'er. We should only need him when someone is resting.

 

If he struggles, finding a capable 4th OF'er mis season is one of the easiest things to do.

 

(Brentz is out of options.)

 

[moonslav59]

Mariners make another trade... (MLBTR)

 

By Steve Adams | November 16, 2017 at 11:08am CDT

The Mariners announced on Thursday that they’ve traded right-hander Thyago Vieira to the White Sox in exchange for international bonus money. The move opens a spot on Seattle’s 40-man roster in advance of next week’s deadline to set 40-man rosters for the Rule 5 Draft, and it also gives the Mariners some additional funds for the pursuit of Shohei Ohtani and other high-end international amateurs.

[harmony]

Mariners make another trade... (MLBTR)

 

By Steve Adams | November 16, 2017 at 11:08am CDT

The Mariners announced on Thursday that they’ve traded right-hander Thyago Vieira to the White Sox in exchange for international bonus money. The move opens a spot on Seattle’s 40-man roster in advance of next week’s deadline to set 40-man rosters for the Rule 5 Draft, and it also gives the Mariners some additional funds for the pursuit of Shohei Ohtani and other high-end international amateurs.

Thyago Vieira was the pitcher who threw harder than Michael Kopech in the 2016 Arizona Fall League.

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/thyago-vieira-seattle-mariners-103-mph-relief-prospect/

[moonslav59]

Thyago Vieira was the pitcher who threw harder than Michael Kopech in the 2016 Arizona Fall League.

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/thyago-vieira-seattle-mariners-103-mph-relief-prospect/

 

Any word yet on just how much bonus money they got back?

[moonslav59]

How's this?

 

Sign: JD Martinez (DH-4th OF'er)

 

Sign: B Shaw

 

Trade: HRam (He's better than Shields), Chavis, Ockimey, Houck & Shawaryn

For: Jose Abreu (2 arb years remaining) & Jamie Shields ($21M/1 + $2M buyout)

 

1. Bogey SS

2. Betts RF

3. Abreu 1B

4. Martinez DH

5. Beni LF

6. Devers 3B

7. Pedey 2B

8. JBJ CF

9. Vaz C

 

Bench: Leon, Hernandez, Travis, Swihart/Holt/Marrero

 

SP: Sale, Price, Pom, Porcello, Shields-Wright (ERod, Velzquez, Beeks, Johnson)

RP: Kimbrel, Shaw, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Maddox, Hembree (Workman, Scott, Thornburg)

 

[Nick]

How's this?

 

Sign: JD Martinez (DH-4th OF'er)

 

Sign: B Shaw

 

Trade: HRam (He's better than Shields), Chavis, Ockimey, Houck & Shawaryn

For: Jose Abreu (2 arb years remaining) & Jamie Shields ($21M/1 + $2M buyout)

 

1. Bogey SS

2. Betts RF

3. Abreu 1B

4. Martinez DH

5. Beni LF

6. Devers 3B

7. Pedey 2B

8. JBJ CF

9. Vaz C

 

Bench: Leon, Hernandez, Travis, Swihart/Holt/Marrero

 

SP: Sale, Price, Pom, Porcello, Shields-Wright (ERod, Velzquez, Beeks, Johnson)

RP: Kimbrel, Shaw, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Maddox, Hembree (Workman, Scott, Thornburg)

 

 

Better chance of Sox trading for Stanton AND Votto, AND signing free agent Martinez than trading away Hanley. Come on, where do you get this stuff?

[harmony]

Any word yet on just how much bonus money they got back?

$500,000.

 

There is debate on how much international money Seattle has.

 

 

The Mariners received $750,000 from the Cardinals in the Mike Leake trade last August.

[moonslav59]

Better chance of Sox trading for Stanton AND Votto, AND signing free agent Martinez than trading away Hanley. Come on, where do you get this stuff?

 

Jamie Shields is worse than HRam and owed more. Did you notice that?

[Nick]

Jamie Shields is worse than HRam and owed more. Did you notice that?

 

Exchanging bad contracts works in NBA. I don't see much of it in MLB.

[moonslav59]

Exchanging bad contracts works in NBA. I don't see much of it in MLB.

 

True, but it's not really an absurd idea.

 

Usually salary dumps are one way deals not exchanges.

 

There's hardly many big contract trades that aren't "dumps" either.

 

I do remember the Mike Piazza & Todd Zielle for Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla and others mega deal.

 

,

I don't want Shields, but we do need a 5th starter type and if we could get JD and Abreu without breaking up the OF, trading salary dumps might work out well for us while giving the Whitesox a 1Bman to take Abreu's place and someone better than their "dump".

[harmony]

Jamie Shields is worse than HRam and owed more. Did you notice that?

The White Sox owe James Shields, who posted a negative 0.2 fWAR this year, $11 million in 2018 with the Padres paying the balance of his $21 million salary and the $2 million buyout of the 2019 option.

 

http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/chicago-white-sox/

 

The Red Sox owe Hanley Ramirez, who posted a negative 0.4 fWAR this year, $22 million in 2018.

 

However, Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 0.2 in 29 starts for Shields and 1.0 in 574 plate appearances for Ramirez.

 

Because that many plate appearances for Ramirez would vest the $22 million option for 2019, the Ramirez contract may well be worse.

[Larry Cook]

It would be interesting to see if bannister can do anything with shields. I know shields arm is about to fall off, and his pitches lack anything resembling movement, but if he can keep the ball down in the strike zone, we might be able to get a serviceable year out of him.

[harmony]

How's this?

 

Sign: JD Martinez (DH-4th OF'er)

 

Sign: B Shaw

 

Trade: HRam (He's better than Shields), Chavis, Ockimey, Houck & Shawaryn

For: Jose Abreu (2 arb years remaining) & Jamie Shields ($21M/1 + $2M buyout)

 

1. Bogey SS

2. Betts RF

3. Abreu 1B

4. Martinez DH

5. Beni LF

6. Devers 3B

7. Pedey 2B

8. JBJ CF

9. Vaz C

 

Bench: Leon, Hernandez, Travis, Swihart/Holt/Marrero

 

SP: Sale, Price, Pom, Porcello, Shields-Wright (ERod, Velzquez, Beeks, Johnson)

RP: Kimbrel, Shaw, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Maddox, Hembree (Workman, Scott, Thornburg)

 

The surplus value of two years of Jose Abreu will likely outweigh the negative value of one year of James Shields at $11 million.

 

The proposal may work if the Red Sox keep Hanley Ramirez and his $22 million salary out of the trade.

[oldtimer]

How's this?

 

Sign: JD Martinez (DH-4th OF'er)

 

Sign: B Shaw

 

Trade: HRam (He's better than Shields), Chavis, Ockimey, Houck & Shawaryn

For: Jose Abreu (2 arb years remaining) & Jamie Shields ($21M/1 + $2M buyout)

 

1. Bogey SS

2. Betts RF

3. Abreu 1B

4. Martinez DH

5. Beni LF

6. Devers 3B

7. Pedey 2B

8. JBJ CF

9. Vaz C

 

Bench: Leon, Hernandez, Travis, Swihart/Holt/Marrero

 

SP: Sale, Price, Pom, Porcello, Shields-Wright (ERod, Velzquez, Beeks, Johnson)

RP: Kimbrel, Shaw, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Maddox, Hembree (Workman, Scott, Thornburg)

 

 

Your missing Brentz, who DD has said should get a chance as 4th outfielder.

[moonslav59]

Your missing Brentz, who DD has said should get a chance as 4th outfielder.

 

If we sign Martinez, he's the 4th OF'er/DH. He'll play OF at all NL parks and when one of our OF'er need a rest.

 

I see Holt as the 5th OF'er, so we wouldn't need Brentz with JD on the 25 man roster.

[moonslav59]

The surplus value of two years of Jose Abreu will likely outweigh the negative value of one year of James Shields at $11 million.

 

The proposal may work if the Red Sox keep Hanley Ramirez and his $22 million salary out of the trade.

 

Since the CWS only owe $11M on Shields maybe you're right minus one of the prospects I included.